User blog:Sassmaster15/Atlantic Tropical Update

Hello HHW!

It's Forecaster Sassmaster here with your daily Tropical Update!

The Future of Bonnie...
For starters, let's discuss Hurricane Bonnie. Over the last several days, Bonnie has been steadily strengthening over the Caribbean, and as of the most recent advisory, has attained Category 2 status. Currently, southeast of the Dominican Republic, Bonnie continues to accelerate on a westerly path, currently forecasted to hit the island of nation of Jamaica by tomorrow afternoon, possibly as a Category 3 hurricane. In addition, Bonnie is expected to shift course to the northwest and eventually make landfall in central Cuba as a high-end Category 3 hurricane by Tuesday. In doing this, Bonnie will become the first major hurricane landfall in the country since Hurricane Sandy.

What's beyond this, you ask? Well, both the GFS and HWRF models take this storm to Category 4 intensity over the Gulf of Mexico. ECMWF predicts brief weakening prior to re-strengthening back to a major hurricane. In addition, the SHIP model predicts a brief peak as a Category 5 hurricane over the Loop Current. Nevertheless, we predict a mid-grade Category 4 storm at peak, followed by landfall in Mississippi as a major hurricane. Should this forecast be accurate, Bonnie will be the first major hurricane landfall in the United States since Hurricane Wilma.

'''All interests in Cuba and the United States Gulf Coast should continue monitoring the progress of this dangerous cyclone. '''Two very destructive landfalls are expected along its forecast track over the next several days. Please begin preparing for this storm as necessary. Preparations to protect life and property should begin in Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands now.

The current damage total from Bonnie in the Leeward Islands exceeds $300 million (2016 USD). In addition, the death toll is up to 24. These figures are expected to continue rising over the next several days.



Colin
Forming just last night, Tropical Storm Colin appears to intensifying more rapidly than previously thought, as its current intensity is 55 knots just west of Cape Verde. Colin is projected to continue on this westerly path and undergo steady intensification beginning tomorrow. We expect Colin to briefly attain Category 2 status over the open Atlantic, prior to entering a pocket of cooler waters and wind shear just east of the Lesser Antilles. Major hurricane intensity is possible, but unlikely.

'''Interests throughout the Lesser Antilles should begin monitoring the progress of Colin. '''A possible strike as a strong tropical storm is possible in the areas Bonnie devastated just days before.

Elsewhere
An Area of Investigation is currently located to the east of the Yucatán Peninsula and we have given it the Yellow Crayon due to possible tropical cyclogenesis in the future. Upon crossing the Yucatán, this system is expected to emerge into the Bay of Campeche and could be invested over coming days. Should this system become a tropical storm, it will be assigned the name Danielle, respectively.

Formation Chance through 48 hours.....LOW...Ten Percent Chance

Formation Chance through 5 days........MEDIUM...Sixty Percent Chance

Elsewhere...no other areas or systems of interest.

That's all for now!

~Forecaster Sassmaster