User blog:Hurricane Layten/June 16, 2017 Discussion

OK, so there's more information available today, which warrants a blog from me as a result, so here it goes...

Invest 92L has developed in the Atlantic basin this 20%afternoon, and has a 20% chance of development within the next 48 hours and a 40% chance within the next 5 days from the National Hurricane Center. I personally would indicate a 30% chance of development within 48 hours, and a 60% chance for within the next 5 days. The tropical wave is associated with a 1011 mbar surface low, and is surrounded by scattered moderate to isolated strong convection. The wave has been interacting with a Saharan air layer over the last day or so, which has helped to reduce the amount of convection over the system. However, in the last 12 hours or so, the wave has been firing off convection, and a weak cyclonic turning is now associated with the wave. I expect this system will move west, then west-northwest as it develops, before meeting with the Saharan air layer, which should inhibit further development. It is interesting to see that only the GFS ensemble members develop this system, along with the CMC, which develops a tropical depression.Everything else seems to just have a strong tropical wave run head first into South America.

The other area of interest, a cyclonic gyre over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, has also has had its chances raised this afternoon, and now has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days. The gyre is expected to absorb 2 local tropical waves over the region this weekend, developing a surface low pressure area, and enabling the possibility for the system to become a tropical cyclone. If a system does form, it will make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula and move out into the very warm Gulf waters, where some of the modelling suggesting that it could have a chance to become a hurricane before moving into the Florida Panhandle.