User blog:Hurricane Layten/New storms expected, current storms a big concern in some cases

OK, so I changed my mind about updating this evening, based on the latest observations I have been able to do this morning. But I think we will begin with Matthew first, shall we?



The eye of Hurricane Matthew, currently a moderate category 4 with a pressure of 934 mbar, is just hours away from landfall in Haiti. Winds are forecast to be 145 mph until landfall, with the eye hitting Cuba overnight. It is worth mentioning at this point that life threatening hurricane conditions are already present from the hurricane in Haiti, where 2 people have already been found dead. After hitting Haiti, Matthew will make landfall in Cuba overnight, packing category 3 force winds with it. After this, it is forecast to hit areas hit by Joaquin last year, potentially as it intensifies after hitting Cuba. After this, the next target is the US.



There is quite some spread in the hurricane models, with most indicating a very close pass by Florida with hurricane gusts along the coast, before heading for its North Carolina landfall as a category 2 in around five days. However, some models do show a direct major hurricane strike for Florida in about 4 days, before taking the storm up the coast on the coastline and becoming extratropical by day 10 near Maine.



Next up, Typhoon Chaba. Chaba was a category 5 super typhoon yesterday, having peaked with 180 mph winds in the early morning hours after a period of explosive deepening. The typhoon, currently a 140 mph category 4, will strike South Korea in the next 36 hours, before hitting Japan as a tropical storm and going extratropical.



Next up is 98L. the NHC has remarked that only a slight increase in organisation in needed for this to be classified as Tropical Storm Nicole, which will head northwest towards Bermuda. The storm will only likely last about 3 days, and will have a minimal impact.



Finally, invest 94C. this system has now moved into the West Pacific, and is likely to become the next typhoon over the coming few days as it continues to the due west, with likely no impacts to any land areas.



That’s all for now, and I will