Bob Nekaro Weather Center/Official 2016 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

2016 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST

The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season looks to be a very interesting one, as it still has a great amount of uncertainty due to the weakening Strong El Nino event as well as a possible transition to a cool phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). However, water temperatures in the central-western Atlantic are among the warmest on record. Water temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic are also slightly above average. There is a significant possibility of a transition into La Nina conditions during the late summer or early Autumn, which would result in reduced Vertical Wind shear in much of the Atlantic and enhanced development conditions. * Includes up to April 30 (BNWC hurricane season lasts from May 1 to November 15). Includes Hurricane Alex (January 13-15). The BNWC also expects one additional pre-season to form during April or May.

We estimate that this season has a 60% chance of above-normal activity (NAI 22+), a 25% chance of near-normal activity (NAI 18-21), and a 15% chance of below-normal activity (NAI <18). The most likely scenario will be an NAI in the 25-30 range, falling short of the "hyperactive" threshold (30+ NAI) but the upper quartile of the "above normal" threshold.