User blog:Hurricane Layten/Hurricane Matthew following my forecasts, Jamaica likely to take a direct hit

This blog is being made to update the current situation of Hurricane Matthew, which is forecast to make a direct hit on Jamaica in about 4 days’ time, and to update the other currently active storms out there.

This will naturally begin with the biggest concern – Matthew. Hurricane Matthew has been following my forecasts for rapid intensification whilst in the Caribbean Sea. I expect it will be a major hurricane by later today at the earliest. I will seriously reinforce my claims that Matthew could end up a category 5 in the Caribbean. The hurricane will be passing over 32C waters for the next 4 days, and couple this with the very favourable tropical cyclone heat potential in the area along the new model tracks, which shifted west in the latest run, and there you have it – a potentially catastrophic hurricane slamming into the island of Jamaica and Cuba.

Matthew is currently a category 2 hurricane as of 0800, and is in the midst of its rapid intensification, which I am anticipating to continue for at least 12 more hours before the small circulation begins interacting with the ABC islands and intensification slows. My current forecast is calling for a high end category 4 hurricane in 18 hours, which may be conservative at this point, based on the current situation arising. Its like what happened with Patricia last year, but slightly slower, as Matthew is still in a slightly sheared environment, which seems to be putting a cap on the rate of intensification that Matthew is able to do at this time.

Matthew will be in an environment favourable for intensification for another 3 days, and most of the more reliable tropical cyclone forecast models show a powerful hurricane lingering in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean for the next several days, including the threat of a possible major hurricane landfall for the US East Coast beyond the 10-day timeframe. Anyone along the coast should keep a very close eye on Matthew, as the track forecasts are currently changing on every model run for this storm.

Out in the Central Pacific, Ulika has now weakened to a tropical depression, and is expected to lose tropical characteristics later today as it continues into a very unfavourable environment. No impacts are expected for Hawaii fromt his system.

Out in the West Pacific, Severe Tropical Storm Chaba is also following my forecast, anad should be a typhoon later today. The cyclone has been exhibiting an open ragged eye like feature for the last several hours, and so I expect it is very close to becoming yet another super typhoon headed for Taiwan, as is now indicated by the reliable HWRF model in 4 days’ time on the 0600 UTC run.

Ill have more here after the 0900 UTC advisories are out.