User blog:Bobnekaro/When will the Atlantic see a storm again?

Well, it's November 5, which I believe is the average date for the final storm's dissipation of an Atlantic hurricane season. Will we get Otto before season's end? Climatology suggests that it probably has less than a 50 percent chance of happening. Our chances for Otto are slipping, with a Paula finish very unlikely and a Richard finish nearly out of the question. Which means that there is a chance that the next Atlantic storm may not be Otto, but it may be Arlene - and that may not even be for seven months, perhaps longer. While 2016 had Hurricane Alex in January, the same event is extremely unlikely in 2017.

The average date of a first storm to form in the Atlantic is July 9. The past few seasons, Atlantic storms have been starting much earlier than this date. Climatology suggests that we are due for a late-starting Atlantic season soon. I hope this does not happen in 2017, though - but there have been Atlantic seasons that did not have their first named storm until August (2000 and 2009 are recent examples). The wait for our next Atlantic storm could be as short as ten days, or as long as nine months. But how long will the wait be?

When will the Atlantic get a storm again? November 2016 - Otto December 2016 - Otto January to April 2017 - Arlene May 2017 - Arlene June 2017 - Arlene July 2017 - Arlene August or later 2017 - Arlene