User blog:Hurricane Layten/Typhoon Noru becoming a huge concern for Japan

Okay, today's post is self explanatory to those that have seen the runs. The implications of an 870 mbar super typhoon, most likely packing winds around 200 mph making landfall along the Nagasaki area are unfathomable to say the least, but let's start somewhere else first.

Typhoon Noru has already been active for about a week, and peaked a few nights ago with peak winds of 140 knots (160 mph) before dry air managed to find its way into the core of the system and weaken it to it's current state. Now, before people call the models bluff, consider one thing: the modelling for what will happen in 5 days has varied in both intensity and timing. However, the GFS in particular has showed this scenario on and off for the last week or so in particular, and especially when there's been consensus coming about on this solution over the last 3 or so days, it raises a lot of eyebrows for certain. Now, onto the present.

The GFS has shown a violent typhoon making landfall in the Ryukyu Islands before turning north to hit southern Japan head on for the last several days now. If this does come to light and the current projected intensity of 870 mbar is true, it's going to be doing damages well into the billions with how built up this region is. If you were wondering, with a system as large as Noru is projected to be by this time, winds would be 190-205 mph, which I sincerely hope does not happen. In the image below, for instance, Noru is located over an island in the Ryukyu's at 870mbar, with violent winds projected over most of the other islands in the region.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017080106/gfs_pres_wind_07W_22.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017080106/gfs_pres_wind_07W_23.png

Now, onto the European model. The Euro isn't as powerful at 896 mbar, but again, it's concerning when it has been showing this scenario for the last 2 days on every run it's done.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017080100/ecmwf_z500_mslp_wpac_6.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017080100/ecmwf_z500_mslp_wpac_7.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017080100/ecmwf_z500_mslp_wpac_8.png