2015-16 Arctic Cyclone Season

'''This will be a holiday-themed season similar to Steve's "2013-14 North Pole Hurricane Season". However, since Steve is gone, I have decided to do one this year. I know it's not the holiday season yet, but it will be soon. This will be an as-it-unfolds season with frequent updates coming to this page between now and the week after Christmas.'''

The 2015-16 Arctic Cyclone Season is an active event in the Arctic Ocean basin. The season will officially begin on November 1 and end on January 7, dates that typically delimit the start and end of the season. However, Polar Storm Angel formed nearly 4 weeks before the season officially begins on October 5. Angel later intensified into a Polar Cyclone, becoming the second-earliest polar cyclone on record. Storm formation can also occur outside of the designated dates. The most common time for storms to form though is from mid-to-late December.

Storms, even tropical cyclones, can cross from other basins into the Arctic basin. Should this happen, the storm would keep their original name. These types of storms are more common early in the season.

Pre-Season Forecasts
Due to mixed reports on what conditions would exist in the Arctic Ocean, no predictions were issued for this season. The BNWC says that there is a near equal chance in a below-normal, near-normal, and above-normal season. Average activity in the basin has roughly 15 named storms, 8 polar cyclones, and 3 major cyclones, with roughly two to four storms making landfall in the north pole.

If you still want to make a pre-season prediction, make it here!

October
The season had a very early start. On October 4, the first invest of the season formed, Invest 90N, and was first listed with 15 mph winds. The system then intensified into Polar Storm Angel on October 5. Angel later acquired hurricane-force winds on October 7, prompting an upgrade to Weak Polar Cyclone status.

Live Arctic Cyclone Updates


Weak Polar Cyclone ANGEL - Updated October 7, 2015 5:00 PM EDT

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-minute): 85 mph, Minimum Pressure: 984 mbar

Polar Cyclone ANGEL has not intensified over the past few hours due to an unexpected rise in wind shear. The latest path of Angel has it taking a more eastward turn, which will likely make a landfall unlikely, and will also inhibit the storm's development. One model of the storm now has Angel dissipating on Saturday, while another one still has it strengthening into a major polar cyclone, although this model seems like an outlier now. The forecast path has changed into a much less favorable environment, which could indicate that Angel has peaked in strength and will likely not get much stronger, if it all.

The trajectory path continues to shift to the east, which means a North Pole landfall is now highly unlikely. The area that the storm is heading into has fairly strong wind shear of 20-30 knots, which will likely inhibit development. A shift in the ridge will make rapid intensification unlikely as well.

Next Advisory scheduled for 8AM EDT October 8.

Forecast Trajectory

11PM Wed - 90 MPH

11AM Thu - 85 MPH

11PM Thu - 75 MPH

11AM Fri - 60 MPH

11AM Sat - 40 MPH

11AM Sun - DISSIPATED

Additional polar cyclone formation is not expected in the next 5 days. - BNWC

Polar Cyclone Angel
On October 4, the Bob Nekaro Weather Center began monitoring a small area of low pressure producing snow showers, located about 400 miles south of the North Pole, directly north of Canada. At their first advisory at 4PM EDT, the BNWC predicted that the disturbance would have a 0% chance of development within the next 48 hours and a 20% chance of development within the next 5 days. However, the storm rapidly intensified, and was given an 80% chance of development by 3PM on October 5. Later that afternoon, satellite imagery from a BNWC Cyclone Hunters aircraft found a closed circulation and named the storm Polar Storm Angel nearly four weeks before the season officially begins. Angel later strengthened on October 6, and acquired Polar Cyclone status on October 7 at 3:00 PM.

Scale
This scale is based off the Saffir-Simpson scale, but with different classifications.

Names Used
A Christmas-themed name list will be used. These names are all different from Steve's. Should all names be used, the Hebrew alphabet will be used to name the storms.