User blog:Bobnekaro/Polar Storm Bell hanging on in the Hudson Bay; Activity Drought Expected To Come Soon

By Bob Nekaro, BNWC CEO & Chief Meteorologist

Polar Storm Bell has changed little in organization over the past 3 hours, with winds of 50 mph still recorded at the 2:00 pm advisory. These two storms, Angel and Bell, have already formed, but an activity drought is expected to begin soon.

Bell is expected to weaken starting tonight and could dissipate by the end of the week. Entering the Baffin Bay now looks unlikely as the storm could make landfall in the Nunavut Territory of Canada as a Polar Depression. Nunavut residents need to stay alert as 3-5 inches of snow and winds of 30-40 mph are possible late next week.

Don't be surprised if no storms form for a few weeks. We're still two weeks away from the season's official start. However, by the second week of November, there could be an active spell that could produce the season's first major polar cyclones. The BNWC's 100, 200, 300, 400 and 500 hour models do not predict any polar cyclongenesis over the next three weeks or so, but this could change.

Convesely, the BNWC's 600 hour model predicts an Intense Polar Cyclone (Polar Cyclone Candle?) with 120 mph winds forming west of Iceland and reaching the North Pole in mid-November. These models are being used for the first time this season, so their accuracy remains uncertain.