User blog:Bobnekaro/Polar Weather 10/13/2015 - 8:00 PM EDT

Hello! It's Bob Nekaro of the BNWC with a Polar Weather update. We continue to track an area of low pressure moving off the coast of Canada, expected to enter the Hudson Bay tomorrow or Thursday. This "polar wave" will likely be named Invest 91N tomorrow. The wind shear has relaxed substantially in the Hudson Bay over the past two days, which could allow the storm to develop earlier than expected. However, ensemble computer models have diverged substantially over the past several hours. Some models now have it moving eastward similar to Polar Storm Angel, while others continue to bring it into the Baffin Bay. Similar to Polar Storm Angel, there's a lot of uncertainty with this storm. If the Baffin Bay wind shear conditions relax even more, this wave could very well be a strong Polar Cyclone. If wind shear continues, this wave will likely not even reach Polar Depression status.

Our latest data from the BNWC for formation chances will be released at 8PM EDT. As of 2PM EDT, formation chances were 0% in the next 48 hours and 20% in the next 5 days.

If the storm reaches 40 mph winds, it will be named Polar Storm Bell and would become the second pre-season storm of the season, which would tie a record.