Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki:CCB Logs/2.8/11-02-2016

00:00:01 UTC  I do too sometimes. 00:00:27 UTC  😜 00:00:30 UTC  :p 00:00:34 UTC  E1 pls :3 00:00:38 UTC  XD 00:00:44 UTC  *F1 00:00:49 UTC  *G1 00:00:50 UTC  Putting Matthew up 00:00:52 UTC  Hurricane Adolf Coffee has formed! 00:00:54 UTC  nah, E1. 00:00:56 UTC  :P 00:00:58 UTC  Let's get Otto in November and Paula in December :3 00:01:04 UTC  it's completely possible to get a S1 00:01:09 UTC  we've had them in the past 00:01:12 UTC  just not named 00:01:13 UTC  :P 00:01:16 UTC <Hypercane> We got one before. 00:01:25 UTC <Hypercane> or two. 00:01:27 UTC <Hypercane> :P 00:01:29 UTC <MasterGarfield> If Otto is a S1 that will be amazing 00:01:31 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 00:01:33 UTC <Hurricane Layten> Its 0001 on Nov 2, 2016 00:01:37 UTC <Hurricane Layten> Good morning guys! 😜 00:01:40 UTC <MasterGarfield> [small] inb4 Otto is retired for damage in Azores 00:01:46 UTC <Hurricane Layten> XD 00:01:52 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> The next day, on October 20th, Meari had intensified to a typhoon, the 13th of the season. Despite being a typhoon, Meari did not show an eye as it began to stall out in intensity. Due to the trough and the subtropical ridge, Meari was limited to a west-northwest to northwest movement. By early the 21st, it had finally intensified to a category 2 typhoon as a pinhole eye, combined with hot towers began to show up on satellite camera. The typhoon once again began to stall out in intensity as the eye cleared out even more, however winds remained the same. Eventually, Dvorak intensities supported an upgrade to strong category 3 typhoon status as the eye cleared out even more. This category 3 status was short-lived as it was rapidly upgraded to weak category 4 typhoon status 00:01:54 UTC <Bobnekaro> the problem is SSTs are less than 26C 00:01:56 UTC <GaryKJR> I've spent so much time on this map and i am still at Rebekah 00:02:01 UTC <Hurricane Layten> Lol 00:02:12 UTC <MasterGarfield> do you think this will develop? 00:02:21 UTC <Bobnekaro> Eh, right now I'm skeptical. 00:02:23 UTC <inline-alert> Hurricane StrawberryMaster has formed! 00:02:25 UTC <MasterGarfield> I give it a 50/50 chance 00:02:33 UTC <GaryKJR> 40 yes/60 no 00:02:34 UTC <Bobnekaro> But heck, Alex was a hurricane on waters of 20C. :p 00:02:36 UTC <GaryKJR> for me right now 00:02:43 UTC <Bobnekaro> I agree with the NHC's 20% chance. 00:02:48 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> "Tropical Depression 99W" 00:02:50 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> kden 00:02:52 UTC <MasterGarfield> "An area of disturbed weather is located a few hundred miles south of the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala. Although environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for development of this system during the next few days, they could become more favorable this weekend while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward." 00:02:56 UTC <Hurricane Layten> I'd go 0/40 tbh 00:03:01 UTC <Brickcraft1> ^ 00:03:03 UTC <StrawberryMaster> [small]for some reason, Bob's avatar reminds me of Nuno lol. :P 00:03:05 UTC <Bobnekaro> hopefully instability will be high enough to allow it to fire some deep convection. 00:03:08 UTC <Hurricane Layten> Xd 00:03:16 UTC <Bobnekaro> this is a Nunotropical invest 00:03:18 UTC <MasterGarfield> knowing the EPac that invest will develop 00:03:20 UTC <Adolf Coffee> Also with my outlook i would like to mention my second predictor that I like to follow is Arctic sea ice, especially in the Barents-Kara seas. Despite a quick rebound off the minimum, sea ice growth has been truly anemic and large areas in the Barents-Kara on the North Atlantic side and in the East Siberian, Chukchi and Beaufort seas on the North Pacific side remain ice free. Finally the third predictor that I follow is the development of the Siberian high. The Siberian high expanded strongly to the north and west during October. 00:03:30 UTC <MasterGarfield> into another major separated from all the other storms 00:03:32 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 00:03:37 UTC <Bobnekaro> :p 00:03:40 UTC <GaryKJR> cat 4 seymour, cat 5 tina 00:03:42 UTC <Hurricane Layten> I'd say 0/30 for the Atl one 00:03:44 UTC <GaryKJR> cat 5 virgil 00:03:46 UTC <MasterGarfield> that's how the EPac will end this year 00:03:48 UTC <Hurricane Layten> XD 00:03:50 UTC <Bobnekaro> did you know 2012 almost had SS Valerie in early December? 00:03:52 UTC <Adolf Coffee> This is favorable to poleward heat flux or vertical Wave Activity Flux 00:03:54 UTC <MasterGarfield> C4/5 Tina in early November 00:04:00 UTC <Hurricane Layten> XD 00:04:02 UTC <MasterGarfield> C2/3 Virgil in late November 00:04:04 UTC <inline-alert> Hurricane Hypercane has dissipated! 00:04:06 UTC <Bobnekaro> and 2010 almost had SS/TS Virginie. 00:04:16 UTC <GaryKJR> i like the names that are later in the list 00:04:21 UTC <Bobnekaro> same 00:04:23 UTC <GaryKJR> shame they never get used 00:04:24 UTC <MasterGarfield> Hurricane VAN 00:04:26 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 00:04:28 UTC <Bobnekaro> late season storms are usually cooler IMO 00:04:30 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> with that low pressure tbh 00:04:32 UTC <GaryKJR> that will be a cat1 in my season 00:04:34 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> I think it should be 0/30 00:04:37 UTC <GaryKJR> rebekah is a cat 3 00:04:40 UTC <Bobnekaro> June storms are usually the most boring 00:04:42 UTC <MasterGarfield> "...HURRICANE VAN DRIVING UP THE EAST COAST..." 00:04:44 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 00:04:46 UTC <Adolf Coffee> and the pattern was so conducive to WAFz it resulted (in my opinion) in a record strong WAFz to end the month and the current unprecedented PV split. Based on my experience all three, the extensive Eurasian snow cover, the low Arctic sea ice and strengthened Siberian high all favor a significant weakening of the PV in mid-winter followed by increased high latitude blocking and colder temperatures for Northern Eurasia including Europe and East Asia and the Eastern US. 00:05:25 UTC <GaryKJR> idk if it is realistic but i made Rebekah strengthen in lake Michigan and Superior 00:05:30 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> test 00:05:33 UTC <GaryKJR> as an extratropical 00:05:35 UTC <Bobnekaro> B 00:05:37 UTC <MasterGarfield> https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-68.08,17.51,2902/loc=-61.951,18.264 some convection 00:05:39 UTC <inline-alert> Hurricane Hypercane has formed! 00:05:41 UTC <Adolf Coffee> The challenge becomes now that the whole extensive snow cover to cold temperature cycle that usually evolves over months has completed at an accelerated schedule of weeks instead, what will happen for the rest of the winter. The current cycle still has a ways to go and my expectation is for multiple weeks where the AO averages negative, especially if the WAFz remains relatively quiet. I look for relatively cold weather to continue across Northern Eurasia and eventually eastern North America. 00:05:43 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> did you guys see what I said before test? 00:05:45 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> or no 00:05:53 UTC <MasterGarfield> also 00:05:57 UTC <MasterGarfield> have you guys seen 00:05:58 UTC <MasterGarfield> this 00:06:06 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> my favorite names are danielle, julia, paula, richard and virginie 00:06:08 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> :P 00:06:16 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> danielle couldve been a C5 tbh 00:06:18 UTC <GaryKJR> i like van and tobias 00:06:21 UTC <GaryKJR> and joyce 00:06:30 UTC <GaryKJR> josephine is cool 00:06:34 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> my favorite name of 2018 is florence 00:06:36 UTC <GaryKJR> etc. lol 00:06:37 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> :P 00:06:39 UTC <Bobnekaro> :P 00:06:47 UTC <MasterGarfield> [img="www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016110118/gfs_pres_wind_ind_49.png"] 00:06:49 UTC <GaryKJR> ok tbh i like 99% of them 00:06:52 UTC <Bobnekaro> @Garfield :/ 00:07:02 UTC <MasterGarfield> there's a system near Madagascar 00:07:09 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> "She steals works from others especially mine without permission and I doubt if anybody else can create their own satellite images." 00:07:11 UTC <Bobnekaro> SWIO to wake up? 00:07:13 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> year later 00:07:14 UTC <GaryKJR> their season is starting to pick up 00:07:16 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> everyone creates satellite images 00:07:18 UTC <GaryKJR> a tiny bit 00:07:40 UTC <Bobnekaro> November is the only month when tropical activity can occur everywhere (that isn't rare) 00:07:43 UTC <MasterGarfield> [img="www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016110118/gfs_pres_wind_fe_20.png"] great. Haiyan 2.0 is back. :/ 00:07:47 UTC <Bobnekaro> :/ 00:07:55 UTC <Bobnekaro> November - all basins have equality! :p 00:08:07 UTC <Hurricane Layten> Lol 00:08:13 UTC <Hurricane Layten> Matthew is up 00:08:20 UTC <Hurricane Layten> 165/934 00:08:25 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> awit 00:08:30 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> what intensity is that?

00:08:32 UTC <GaryKJR> how about april? 00:08:34 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> @MG 00:08:42 UTC <MasterGarfield> 968 mbar 00:08:44 UTC <MasterGarfield> maybe weak C3 00:08:57 UTC <MasterGarfield> but knowing WPac it would/will probably be stronger 00:09:13 UTC <Hurricane Layten> 968 in WPac is high C1/low C2 00:09:15 UTC <Bobnekaro> WPAC storms rarely disappoint. 00:09:27 UTC <Hurricane Layten> True 00:09:39 UTC <MasterGarfield> [img="www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016110118/gfs_ir_fe_20.png"] 00:09:58 UTC <Bobnekaro> WOW that's some deep convection 00:10:02 UTC <Hurricane Layten> That CDO... 00:10:15 UTC <MasterGarfield> also that system in the indian ocean is to note as well 00:10:17 UTC <GaryKJR> cat 5 cyclones in the SWIO look so cool http://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/hypotheticalhurricanes/images/3/39/Geralda_31_jan_1994_1256Z.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20140812082301 00:10:19 UTC <Hurricane Layten> And I think I'm a seeing a pinhole as well 😐 00:10:30 UTC <MasterGarfield> STY Meari 00:10:31 UTC <Bobnekaro> the main reason I'm a little skeptical about the Atlantic AOI is it has Alex-level SSTs to travel over 00:10:37 UTC <MasterGarfield> more M storms :P 00:10:41 UTC <Hurricane Layten> Lol 00:10:44 UTC <MasterGarfield> just what we need 00:10:54 UTC <MasterGarfield> I just hope it doesn't hit Hazel 00:11:01 UTC <Bobnekaro> but if Alex can do it, Otto can too! :p 00:11:09 UTC <Hurricane Layten> Maybe 00:11:20 UTC <Hurricane Layten> The waters are warmer now 00:11:22 UTC <GaryKJR> poor CPAC 00:11:25 UTC <Hurricane Layten> Lol 00:11:27 UTC <Adolf Coffee> i would like to mention the Polar Vortex split is so great that half is in canada while the other is in Eurasia 00:11:33 UTC <Bobnekaro> wow 00:11:36 UTC <Hurricane Layten> Wasn't poor last year.. 00:11:39 UTC <inline-alert> Hurricane Azure the Serval has dissipated! 00:11:41 UTC <Hurricane Layten> 😝 00:12:04 UTC <MasterGarfield> [img="www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016110118/gfs_pres_wind_ind_50.png"] three systems 00:12:32 UTC <Adolf Coffee> you can see for yourself on the earth.nullschool site using the 10hpa on the North Pole area 00:12:33 UTC <inline-alert> Hurricane AGirlCalledKeranique has dissipated! 00:13:04 UTC <inline-alert> Hurricane AGirlCalledKeranique has formed! 00:13:08 UTC <inline-alert> Hurricane Brickcraft1 has dissipated! 00:13:10 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> dangit 00:13:13 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> accidentally closed chat out 00:13:19 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> anyway I made such a stupid mistake on this equation thing 00:13:27 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> I was working on something and there was a 9+10 00:13:33 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> i legitimately wrote 21 and almost got the question wrong 00:13:48 UTC <inline-alert> Hurricane Hypercane has dissipated! 00:13:50 UTC <MasterGarfield> [img="www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016110118/gfs_pres_wind_90W_21.png"] 00:13:55 UTC <Bobnekaro> I remember when people were saying 9+10 = 21 00:13:57 UTC <Bobnekaro> :p 00:13:59 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> :P 00:14:01 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> same 00:14:03 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> @bob 00:14:05 UTC <Bobnekaro> @Garfield :/ 00:14:06 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 00:14:08 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> nobody says it anymore 00:14:10 UTC <MasterGarfield> too bad Vine is dead 00:14:12 UTC <GaryKJR> 961 = C3? 00:14:21 UTC <Bobnekaro> probably a C2 in the WPAC 00:14:50 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> 961 would probably be a mid to strong C2 00:15:02 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> although typhoon amy was a C4 and had 970mbar 00:15:47 UTC <MasterGarfield> [img="www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016110118/gfs_pres_wind_atl_31.png"] Paula? 00:15:52 UTC <inline-alert> Hurricane Hypercane has formed! 00:16:08 UTC <Bobnekaro> ET 00:16:12 UTC <MasterGarfield> k 00:16:14 UTC <MasterGarfield> :p 00:16:17 UTC <Bobnekaro> :P 00:16:30 UTC <Bobnekaro> Odile said this AOI in the Atlantic would be ET. Hopefully not. :p 00:16:32 UTC <GaryKJR> hurricane shary december-january 00:16:35 UTC <Adolf Coffee> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kbryz0mxuMY 00:16:59 UTC <MasterGarfield> why did the WPac suddenly die anyway? 00:17:19 UTC <Bobnekaro> Because it's November :p 00:17:28 UTC <Jdcomix> ^ 00:18:01 UTC <inline-alert> Hurricane Hurricane Layten has dissipated! 00:18:05 UTC <Bobnekaro> I want November to have a named storm in every basin. :p 00:18:11 UTC <GaryKJR> good luck 00:18:14 UTC <MasterGarfield> good luck with that 00:18:16 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 00:18:17 UTC <MasterGarfield> ninja'd 00:18:19 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 00:18:21 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> if that happens 00:18:26 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> won't that be the first occurence ever? 00:18:31 UTC <Bobnekaro> idk 00:18:33 UTC <Bobnekaro> Looks like Atlantic, WPAC, EPAC, and NIO could all get one over the next week 00:18:39 UTC <MasterGarfield> [img="img1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb1477473947/hypotheticalhurricanes/images/timeline/f8e6273ee501e8bffd6aa4a220c3086f.png"] 00:18:47 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> kden 00:18:49 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> @MG 00:19:05 UTC <MasterGarfield> 2016 cyclone worldwide timeline 00:19:07 UTC <Jdcomix> :P 00:19:37 UTC <Jdcomix> Neat idea @MG 00:20:15 UTC <MasterGarfield> I include worldwide storms 00:20:16 UTC <inline-alert> Hurricane Hurricane Layten has formed! 00:20:19 UTC <MasterGarfield> but not 2015-16 storms 00:20:23 UTC <MasterGarfield> 2016-17 storms are counted 00:20:33 UTC <Bobnekaro> oh 00:20:35 UTC <Bobnekaro> :p 00:20:41 UTC <inline-alert> Hurricane Nkechinyer has formed! 00:20:44 UTC <Hurricane Layten> http://hypotheticalhurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/2016_Atlantic_hurricane_season_reanalysis/LHC 00:20:46 UTC <Bobnekaro> hey Nkech 00:20:48 UTC <GaryKJR> hi 00:20:50 UTC <Hurricane Layten> Hi 00:20:52 UTC <Nkechinyer> hi 00:20:57 UTC <Jdcomix> So Abela and Bransby would count @MG 00:21:29 UTC <MasterGarfield> the atlantic had a good lead in June 00:21:31 UTC <Bobnekaro> Except Keranique, who never changes her avatar, ever. :p 00:21:37 UTC <MasterGarfield> but it tripped in July and couldn't recover 00:21:47 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> im too lazy to change my avatar 00:21:49 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> :P 00:21:51 UTC <Bobnekaro> :p 00:22:07 UTC <Hurricane Layten> Mine is now the Peyehue eruption from 2011 😙 00:22:11 UTC <Hurricane Layten> Lol k 00:22:13 UTC <Bobnekaro> it would be hard to imagine Keranique with a different avatar to be honest. :p 00:22:23 UTC <Hurricane Layten> You're a naughty girl 😙 00:22:26 UTC <Hurricane Layten> Jk 😝 00:22:29 UTC <Jdcomix> LOL 00:23:00 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> says the person who sits around hating english 00:23:01 UTC <Hurricane Layten> 3 days until me bday 😙 00:23:06 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> meanwhile im enjoying myself and waiting to marry floyd 00:23:08 UTC <Hurricane Layten> XD 00:23:25 UTC <Hurricane Layten> Its a fake real life issue 00:23:27 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> i can do anything but change my avatar 00:23:32 UTC <Hurricane Layten> Lol 00:23:34 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> kden @layten 00:23:36 UTC <Bobnekaro> k. 00:23:38 UTC <GaryKJR> the only reason i picked this picture is 1. because it's our chihuahua and 2. it looks like a terrible mem 00:23:40 UTC <GaryKJR> meme 00:23:42 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> we might as well not invite you to our wedding 00:23:43 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> <3 00:23:46 UTC <Hurricane Layten> XD 00:23:48 UTC <GaryKJR> "when mom steals your spaghetti-o's" 00:23:52 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> SM baby 00:23:55 UTC <AGirlCalledKeranique> (heart) 00:23:58 UTC <StrawberryMaster> <3 00:24:19 UTC <Bobnekaro> SM, since you claim to know the outcome to the season, will Otto form? 00:24:22 UTC <Bobnekaro> :p 00:24:26 UTC <StrawberryMaster> maybe. :P 00:24:53 UTC <Nkechinyer> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jp4TeP4rw0s Hey look, 1 point safety 00:25:15 UTC <Hurricane Layten> Lol 00:25:16 UTC <Hurricane Layten> L 00:25:19 UTC <Hurricane Layten> O 00:25:20 UTC <Hurricane Layten> L 00:25:22 UTC <Hurricane Layten> Lol 00:25:24 UTC <Bobnekaro> I think I watched that video once 00:25:34 UTC <Hurricane Layten> K 00:25:40 UTC <Hurricane Layten> hunhh 00:25:45 UTC <Hurricane Layten> wb hype 00:25:47 UTC <inline-alert> Hurricane Brickcraft1 has formed! 00:25:53 UTC <Hurricane Layten> Hi bricky 00:26:12 UTC <Hurricane Layten> No Darren tonight.. 😢 00:26:25 UTC <Hurricane Layten> http://hypotheticalhurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/2016_Atlantic_hurricane_season_reanalysis/LHC 00:26:27 UTC <Hypercane> k. 00:26:35 UTC <Hurricane Layten> Just got to do the summaries 00:26:52 UTC <Bobnekaro> I will do my reanalysis on November 30. 00:26:57 UTC <Bobnekaro> I still think Alex was 90 :3 00:27:05 UTC <Bobnekaro> hey $ 00:27:11 UTC <Bobnekaro> wb Brick 00:27:13 UTC <Money Hurricane> Ney 00:27:15 UTC <Bobnekaro> Ney? 00:27:18 UTC <Money Hurricane> * Hey 00:27:19 UTC <Brickcraft1> Hi 00:27:22 UTC <Hypercane> Hi $$$. 00:27:24 UTC <Bobnekaro> @MH see the new AOI? 00:27:26 UTC <Hypercane> :P