2016 Lake Okeechobee Cyclone Season (Bob)

The 2016 Lake Okeechobee Cyclone Season is a current event in the annual cycle of tropical-like cyclone formation in Lake Okeechobee, Florida. The season will officially begin on May 1 and end on November 30; however, tropical-like cyclogenesis is possible at any time of year in Lake Okeechobee, as evidenced by Cyclonic Storm April.

Pre-Season Forecasts
On February 7, both the Bob Nekaro Weather Center and the Michelle Weather Center predicted an above-average season, citing warm water temperatures and below-normal wind shear.

Tropical Weather Outlook
BOB NEKARO WEATHER CENTER 8:00 PM EDT APRIL 7, 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTHERN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS LOW COULD ACQUIRE TROPICAL-LIKE CHARACTERISTICS NEXT WEEK DUE TO BELOW-NORMAL WIND SHEAR AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THIRD OFF-SEASON SYSTEM. THE NEXT SPECIAL UPDATE ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED BY 8:00 PM EDT FRIDAY.

~FORECASTER BOB
 * CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 48 HOURS...LOW...NEAR 0 PERCENT
 * CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 5 DAYS...LOW...30 PERCENT

Cyclonic Storm April
In early February, the BNWC began monitoring an area of low pressure for offseason development in southern Lake Okeechobee. On February 8, it intensified into Cyclonic Depression One-O. One intensified into Cyclonic Storm April on February 9. Late that evening, April peaked with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. However, April weakened afterwards, being downgraded to 40 mph by 4:00 PM February 10. The next day, April was downgraded to a cyclonic depression. On February 12, April dissipated as it merged with a remnant low.

Super Cyclone Benjamin
In mid-March, the BNWC began monitoring the Okeechobee basin for possible cyclone development. One low pressure system formed around March 18, but struggled to initially gain convection due to wind shear. The shear then dissipated rapidly, resulting in the initiation of advisories on Cyclonic Depression Two-O at 11:00 AM EDT on March 23. Post-season analysis, however, revealed the it formed into a depression the previous day, and was already at tropical storm intensity by this point. At 10:00 PM on March 23, Two-O developed into Cyclonic Storm Benjamin. On March 24, Benjamin intensified into a cyclone. Late that evening, it intensified further to 105 mph. Early on March 25, Benjamin intensified into a super cyclone, becoming the earliest super cyclone on record in Lake Okeechobee. Operationally, Benjamin's peak intensity was estimated to be 115 mph; however, in post-analysis, this was risen to 125 mph, with the pressure also being lowered from 954 to 948 mbar. Benjamin began to weaken later that day. On March 26, Benjamin was downgraded to a cyclonic storm as it approached landfall near Lakeport, Florida, prompting the BNWC to issue a Cyclonic Storm Warning for Lakeport and its surrounding area. Benjamin then made landfall overnight, with no deaths, injuries or damage reported. At 18:00 UTC on March 27, the final advisory for Benjamin was issued, as it had lost its closed circulation and degenerated into a weak trough of low pressure.