2018 Atlantic hurricane season (Hyperactive Version)/Part 1

"It wasn't a hurricane season, it was the year of the hurricane."

- Dr. Lixion Avila

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season was an extremely active season, with a total of 100 tropical cyclones forming. It shattered 2005's record for named storms before the season even officially began. This season officially began on June 1, 2018 and ended on November 30, 2018, however, this season had year round activity with at least one hurricane in each month.

Note: Between now and June 1 (the start of Atlantic hurricane season) I will add one storm a day to this season.

Hurricane Alberto
In late December 2017, an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms formed along a cold front. The thunderstorms broke away from the front, and eventually consolidated into a surface low by December 30. Although deep convection began to burst along the southwestern quadrant on December 31, the circulation remained poorly defined and winds were light. However, after an ASCAT pass showed the circulation had become better defined, the system acquired sufficient organization to be designated Subtropical Depression One at 00:00 UTC on January 1 - while it was still 2017 in the United States. 6 hours after formation, the depression strengthened into Subtropical Storm Alberto based on ship reports of a falling pressure and increasing winds. Situated over cool sea surface temperatures, Alberto struggled to strengthen over the next day. However, at 00:00 UTC on January 2, Alberto transitioned into a tropical storm as it had developed more central convection, and an eye feature began developing. Alberto's eye began to clear out and become better defined, while high instability in the upper levels of the troposphere allowed unusually deep convection to fire despite sea surface temperatures of around Alberto unexpectedly began to quickly intensify, reaching hurricane status by 06:00 UTC January 2. By 18:00 UTC that day, that eye had become very clear, surrounded by an eyewall of strong convection. Alberto was upgraded to a category 2 hurricane at that time with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, making it the first category 2 hurricane in the Atlantic in January on record. After this, cooler waters and higher shear resulted in Alberto beginning a slow weakening. Alberto passed near the northwestern Azores as a minimal hurricane on January 4. Alberto then turned extratropical by 18:00 UTC THAT day. Alberto's extratropical remnants eventually brought heavy rains to the British Isles, where one fatality was reported.

Tropical Storm Beryl
In early January, an area of showers and thunderstorms - associated with a rare January tropical wave - developed in the Caribbean Sea. On January 9, the disorganized tropical wave moved into the Atlantic, but wind shear was initially expected to be too high for tropical cyclogenesis. However, the next day, convection increased and the National Hurricane Center noted that there was a narrow window for a tropical cyclone to develop. After an ASCAT pass revealed a closed circulation, it is estimated that the tropical wave developed into Tropical Storm Beryl at 12:00 UTC on January 11. NHC Forecaster Dr. Lixion Avila described the formation of Beryl as "an outstanding event...I've never expected to wake up to anything like this." Beryl strengthened slightly to a peak intensity of 45 mph, but after this peak, strong southwesterly wind shear pushed all the convection of Beryl to its east making its center exposed to view. Early on January 13, the center of Beryl made landfall in Puerto Rico as a tropical depression. The small circulation of Beryl dissipated over Puerto Rico by 12:00 UTC that day.

Subtropical Storm Chris
A non-tropical low developed into Subtropical Storm Chris northeast of the Bahamas at 18:00 UTC on January 15, making it the third January storm of the season. Chris reached its peak intensity as a strong subtropical storm late the next day with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and a minimum pressure of 986 mbar as it accelerated to the north-northeast. Chris transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone at 12:00 UTC on January 17 and the post-tropical cyclone eventually made landfall in Atlantic Canada, causing minimal damage. Chris did not cause any fatalities.

Hurricane Debby
In late January, a persistent area of showers and thunderstorms developed in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. At 06:00 UTC on February 2, the low pressure system acquired sufficient organization to be designated the fourth tropical depression of the 2018 season. Due to fairly strong wind shear, the depression had a disheveled appearance with most of its convection on its eastern side. 24 hours after formation, the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Debby at 06:00 UTC on February 3. Shortly after strengthening into a tropical storm, the sheared cyclone entered a slightly more favorable environment with waters of at least and began to rapidly intensify. By 00:00 UTC February 4, Debby strengthened into a category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. 3 hours later, Debby reached its estimated peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph and a minimum pressure of 990 mbar. Immeadiately after peak, Debby began to weaken due to cooler waters and increasing shear. By February 5, Debby had become nearly devoid of deep convection as sea surface temperatures cooled to about, and Debby weakened to a tropical depression later that day. Debby made landfall near Key West, Florida, as a tropical depression. The disorganized depression rapidly dissipated by 06:00 UTC on February 6. Debby caused one fatality in Florida.

Tropical Storm Ernesto
On February 12, a small area of low pressure formed in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. An upper-level anticyclone developed atop the low, reducing wind shear in the area. By 12:00 UTC on February 14, a small circulation center had developed near the center of a formative central dense overcast, and it is estimated a tropical depression formed at that time. Dry air hampered development, and the depression failed to strengthen much. However, at 12:00 UTC on February 15, the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Ernesto, despite an unusually high barometric pressure of 1010 mbar, which was due to the storm's small size and very low latitude. Ernesto then made landfall in Colombia, causing flooding due to the cyclone's surprising landfall. Ernesto caused a total of 14 deaths and $50 million in damage.

Hurricane Florence
On February 26, another small low pressure area formed in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea. Amid low shear and warm water temperatures of around, the low pressure system developed into Tropical Depression Six by 00:00 UTC on February 27. No strengthening occurred for the next day due to some dry air entrainment and upwelling. However, at 00:00 UTC on February 28, the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Florence, the sixth named storm of the season. Later that day, wind shear decreased and water temperatures increased, and a strong burst of convection took place near the center of Florence. By 00:00 UTC on March 1, Florence strengthened into a hurricane. Florence then began a period of rapid intensification situated under an upper-level anticyclone, and rapidly intensified to a category 4 hurricane by 18:00 UTC that same day. Florence made landfall at around 23:00 UTC that day near the Nicaragua-Honduras border with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph. Florence rapidly weakened over land and dissipated by 00:00 UTC on March 3. Florence caused significant damage in central America and caused an estimated 97 fatalities.

Hurricane Gordon
In early March, a large extratropical cyclone developed over the central Atlantic Ocean. Moving on a northeastward track, it slowly developed into Subtropical Storm Gordon by 18:00 UTC on March 4. By that time it had lost all of its frontal features and deep convection began to burst near the center. Gordon's genesis was somewhat similar to Hurricane Alberto earlier in the season. 24 hours after formation, an eye feature developed inside Gordon and Gordon was upgraded to a hurricane. Gordon passed just west of the Canary Islands as a hurricane, prompting the issuance of a tropical storm warning for the western Canary Islands. Despite being over cool waters of around, Gordon continued to strengthen due to high instability, acquiring category 2 status by March 6. Gordon made landfall in the Archipelago Of Madeira on March 7 with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. However, it did not cause any significant damage there, and no deaths were reported. Gordon continued to accelerate northeastward, and made landfall early on March 9 in Portugal. Gordon then weakened to a tropical depression and eventually dissipated later that day. Gordon made landfall at tropical storm intensity, the strongest tropical cyclone to hit the Spain region since the 1842 Spain hurricane.

Tropical Storm Helene
On March 5, an area of low pressure formed in the northwest Caribbean. The NHC began to monitor this area for possible tropical or subtropical development. It organized into Tropical Depression Eight by 12:00 UTC on March 6 while located in the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Six hours after formation, the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Helene. Helene strengthened to a moderately strong tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph by 06:00 UTC on March 7. Helene made landfall in the Big Bend of Florida as a tropical storm in extratropical transition, at peak intensity. Immediately after peak, Helene transitioned into a strong extratropical cyclone; most of Helene's strengthening was related to baroclinic processes rather than tropical processes. The strong extratropical cyclone eventually developed into a powerful nor'easter known as "Nor'lene". "Nor'lene" caused 6 total fatalities and towards the ends of its phase, it transitioned into a winter storm that dumped several inches of snow in New England. The extratropical cyclone dissipated on March 9.

Hurricane Isaac
Hurricane Isaac originated from a rare tropical wave that initially moved off the coast of Africa in late February. Traveling due west, the wave was identified by the National Hurricane Center but was not predicted to consolidate. By March 1, convection began to increase, however, strong wind shear prevented additional convective bursts from occurring. The system entered the Caribbean Sea several days later, a region much more suited for tropical cyclogenesis. At this point, convection was largely intermittent but the system was eventually able to maintain it. By March 10, 2017, the system was classified as a tropical depression approximately 150 miles east-southeast of Playa del Carmen, Mexico. Situated south of a mid-level ridge, the depression continued on its west-northwesterly track. Within hours of its inception, reconnaissance aircraft found reliable evidence for SMFR winds near 37 kt, and the system was assigned the name Isaac, respectively.

Isaac eventually developed strong convective banding to its east and southeast, and eventually made landfall Tulum with sustained winds near 60 kt. As the system passed over the central portion of Quintana Roo and the Yucatán, prolonged land interaction weakened the storm back to a tropical depression as it entered the Bay of Campeche. The weakening was ephemeral as Isaac re-attained tropical storm status not long after moving over open water, with convection blossoming over the storm's center. Around this time, a particularly strong anticyclone stationed over the Gulf of Mexico forced Isaac to take a more southerly path. Increasingly dense cloud cover formed adjacent to the storm in response to favorable atmospheric conditions in the Bay of Campeche. Late March 13, the NHC noted a strong possibility of Isaac rapidly intensifying before its final landfall within the subsequent 24-36 hours. Slightly later than predicted, this intensification pattern did ensue approximately 18 hours prior to landfall.

Seemingly overnight, Isaac's structure drastically improved. Hurricane Hunters aircraft discovered a clear eye surrounded by cold cloud tops measured at -95ºC by infrared satellites. Following this obtained data, the NHC upgraded Isaac to a hurricane, followed by Category 2 status six hours later. At this same advisory, NHC Forecaster Stacy R. Stewart noted the possibility of Isaac acquiring major hurricane status before landfall. However, the cyclone leveled out at 90 knots and later made landfall early March 14 at this intensity, all while still rapidly deepening. Isaac also obtained its lowest minimum pressure - 968 millibars - as its center passed just west of Punta Roca. Early March 15, the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico disrupted Isaac's circulation and it dissipated over south central Oaxaca hours later.

Hurricane Joyce
A non-tropical low pressure system developed into Subtropical Depression Ten at 18:00 UTC on March 17 while located off the coast of South Carolina. The subtropical depression moved very slowly for the next day or so, with little to no strengthening. However, the depression became fully tropical by 18:00 UTC on March 18, and deep convection began to develop right over the center. At 06:00 UTC on March 19, the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Joyce. Unusually warm waters of about allowed the tropical cyclone to strengthen along the Gulf Stream, and Joyce acquired hurricane strength at 18:00 UTC on March 20 as a small eye feature became visible on satellite. After this peak intensity, strong wind shear and cooler waters resulted in Joyce rapidly undergoing extratropical transition. The transition completed by 06:00 UTC on March 21, and the resultant extratropical cyclone was absorbed by another extratropical cyclone later that day.

Tropical Storm Leslie
On March 19, an early fast-moving tropical wave exited the coast of Africa. It acquired sufficient organization to be designated a tropical storm by 12:00 UTC on March 24 while located in the central tropical Atlantic at a very low latitude. Leslie strengthened to a peak intensity of 60 mph about 24 hours later while embedded in fast trade winds. As Leslie neared the Caribbean Sea, wind shear increased due to Hurricane Kirk to its northwest and the cyclone degenerated into an open tropical wave by 12:00 UTC on March 26 while located south of Barbados. Because the cyclone had lost most of its structure, only minimal effects were reported in the Lesser Antilles with no reported fatalities.

Hurricane Michael
On March 25, an early-season tropical wave exited off the coast of Africa. The disturbance moved swiftly westward and gradually coalesced as it traversed the Atlantic MDR. By March 29, the disturbance had reached the southern Lesser Antilles and was already producing gale-force winds. It was later upgraded to Tropical Storm Michael at 06:00 UTC on March 30 as it entered the southeastern Caribbean Sea – dubbed the "graveyard for hurricanes" as this area usually tears apart tropical cyclones that pass though the region. However, Michael began strengthening almost immediately upon its classification, and by 18:00 UTC on April 1, it had become a hurricane just north of Venezuela.

A strong anticyclone became established over the system shortly afterwards, which helped nullify the effects of land interaction. At this point, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center feared that Michael could intensify at a rate that was experienced in Hurricane Matthew when it was located in almost the same spot about 2 years prior. Indeed, these fears became true, as Michael began a period of explosive intensification late on April 2 as a result of the anticyclone and record sea surface temperatures in the area. By 12:00 UTC on April 3, Michael had intensified into a category 5 major hurricane while situated north of Columbia, achieving its peak intensity shortly afterwards. However its pressure was unusually high in relation to its wind speed, this was due to the cyclone nudged up against a strong ridge of high pressure that was located over the southern North Atlantic Ocean.

Michael remained steady in intensity for the next 2 days as it moved northwestwards, sighting its eyes on Jamaica for a landfall. By April 5, Michael made landfall on the island as a category 5, becoming the first hurricane to make landfall at such an intensity since Hurricane Felix in 2007. The cyclone weakened to a category 4 as a result of interaction, and continued northwestwards, now threatening the central parts of Cuba and eventually the state of Florida. On April 6, Michael made landfall south of Santa Clara, Cuba as a category 4, becoming the strongest to hit the nation since Hurricane Michelle in 2001. The hurricane again weakened due to land interaction, and emerged over water as a minimal category 3 east of the Florida Straits.

Intensification occurred again, and Michael later struck just north of Key Largo, Florida on April 7 as a category 4 hurricane, becoming the first major hurricane to strike the United States since Hurricane Wilma a record-breaking 13 years earlier. Tremendous and catastrophic damage was reported in the surrounding areas, however the city of Miami was spared the strongest and worst of the storm, which passed just to its south. At the same time, a trough had begun to interact with Michael, and begun accelerating it north- and then northeastwards throughout the state of Florida, quickly weakening to a tropical storm by April 8 northwest of Orlando. The center of Michael then emerged over the Atlantic Ocean for a short while, allowing it to attain minimal hurricane intensity one more time before weakening again and becoming extratropical over the state of North Carolina. The remnants of Michael accelerated throughout New England, bringing blustery winds and heavy rainfall, but little damage as expected.

In total, Michael caused approximately 467 deaths and around $18.2 billion (2018 USD) in damages, which was considered record-breaking for such an early-season storm and making it one of the most costliest natural disasters to occur in the month of April alone.

Tropical Storm Nadine
In late March, an area of low pressure formed in the western Caribbean Sea, but struggled to develop due to Hurricane Michael to its east. However, early on April 1, the system emerged into the Bay of Campeche, and developed an upper-level anticyclone atop it, shielding itself from wind shear. The system was designated Tropical Depression Fourteen at 12:00 UTC on April 1 while located in the extreme southeastern Bay of Campeche. The depression strengthened only slightly due to being so close to land, eventually becoming Tropical Storm Nadine with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Nadine made landfall in Veracruz near 12:00 UTC on April 2, and rapidly dissipated thereafter over the mountains of Mexico. Nadine caused minimal damage and 3 reported fatalities.

Hurricane Oscar
On April 12, shortly after Hurricane Kirk dissipated, a low pressure area formed along a dissipating frontal boundary in the central Atlantic. The system eventually coalesced into Subtropical Storm Oscar at 18:00 UTC on April 14, while located north-northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Immediately after formation, deep convection began to develop over Oscar's center, signaling tropical transition. Oscar transitioned into a tropical storm at 06:00 UTC on April 15. By 00:00 UTC on April 16, Oscar began developing an eye feature, and acquired hurricane strength at that time. Oscar strengthened to its peak intensity of 85 mph 18 hours later, but weakening began after that time due to cooler waters. Oscar fell below hurricane intensity at 06:00 UTC on April 17, and the cyclone's circulation center became exposed later that day. At 00:00 UTC on April 18, deep convection dissipated and Oscar degenerated into a post-tropical remnant low over cool sea surface temperatures. Winds of the low briefly dropped below tropical storm force, but this was only temporary. NHC continued to monitor Oscar's remnants for possible regeneration as they drifted slowly to the northeast.

By mid-day on April 19, Oscar had begun to develop some new deep convection near the center as winds increased back to tropical storm force. At 18:00 UTC that afternoon, Oscar regenerated into a tropical storm as deep convection redeveloped and became better organized. At 00:00 UTC on April 20, Oscar acquired hurricane intensity for a second time as the cyclone drifted southward into the eastern tropical Atlantic. Oscar then weakened below hurricane intensity just 24 hours later as the eye feature became less visible on satellites. At this time, the cyclone made a turn to the north. The cyclone's forward motion increased on April 22, and as a result, an ASCAT pass showed that the cyclone had begun to produce hurricane-force winds once again. Oscar re-attained hurricane intensity on April 23. At this time, Oscar attained its lowest pressure of 976 millibars. Oscar produced heavy winds in the Azores, but no significant damage. Oscar then weakened slightly thereafter, and transitioned to an extratropical cyclone by 06:00 UTC on April 25.

Hurricane Patty
In mid-April, a low pressure system developed in the Bay of Campeche. It slowly drifted northward, and began to develop a well-defined circulation. It was designated Tropical Storm Patty at 12:00 UTC on April 17. Initially disorganized, the large cyclone eventually began to quickly strengthen the next day. Patty acquired hurricane intensity at 18:00 UTC on April 18 based on data from reconnaissance aircraft. After this, Patty began a period of rapid intensification over the warm sea surface temperatures of the Western Gulf of Mexico. By 00:00 UTC on April 19, Patty quickly strengthened into a category 2 hurricane. A well-defined eye feature was present before Patty made landfall, and it is estimated that Patty peaked in intensity at landfall as a 125 mph category 3 hurricane around 07:00 UTC that day. Patty's landfall occurred well southwest of Houston, Texas. Patty began to quickly weaken over land, falling below hurricane intensity by 18:00 UTC that afternoon. At 06:00 UTC on April 20, Patty weakened to a tropical depression. Patty then degenerated into a remnant low at 18:00 UTC that same day. Patty's impact was somewhat minor compared to U.S. major hurricane landfalls since it hit a sparsely populated area, with only 8 fatalities and $115 million in damage reported.

Hurricane Rafael
Late on April 20, a tropical wave exited the coast of Africa at a fairly high latitude. It slowly coalesced into Tropical Depression Seventeen by 12:00 UTC on April 22, while located over the southwestern Cape Verde Islands. 6 hours later, the depression strengthened into a tropical storm as it began to develop well-defined curved banding. Due to dry air and moderate wind shear, the storm struggled to strengthen much for the next day. However, by April 24, shear decreased as the cyclone entered a more favorable environment. At 18:00 UTC on April 24, Rafael strengthened into a hurricane as an eye feature. The eye feature quickly cleared out, and Rafael strengthened into a category 2 hurricane 12 hours later. Rapid intensification subsequently began, and Rafael strengthened into a category 4 hurricane by 00:00 UTC on April 26, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. Rafael was the easternmost category 4 Atlantic hurricane since Julia in 2010. After this peak intensity, Rafael subsequently weakened to a category 3 hurricane, maintaining this intensity for a full day. Rafael regained category 4 status by 12:00 UTC on April 27, as a the eye had become better defined. Rafael acquired its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph at 00:00 UTC on April 28. Rafael then began a slow weakening as it turned northwestward in the open Atlantic, eventually weakening to a category 3 hurricane by April 29. Wind shear increased on April 30, when Rafael weakened to a category 1 hurricane. As it began to accelerate in the Northern Atlantic, Rafael transitioned into an extratropical cyclone. No fatalities or significant damage was reported from Rafael.

Tropical Storm Sara
A very small low pressure system developed into a tropical depression at a high latitude located well west of the Azores by 06:00 UTC on April 27. The depression eventually strengthened into Tropical Storm Sara 6 hours later. However, cold waters caused the small cyclone to become devoid of deep convection very shortly after formation. No further strengthening occurred, and Sara degenerated into a remnant low by 18:00 UTC on April 28. Sara was the first storm of the season to not affect any land areas.

Hurricane Tony
A rare early season tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on April 23, and tracked its way to the western Caribbean Sea before developing a closed circulation, and promptly being named Tropical Depression Nineteen. Nineteen headed WNW and strengthened into a tropical storm, being named Tony, before making landfall in Northern Belize as a weak tropical storm. Damage was fairly minimal, and Tony only caused 7 direct casualties in Belize. Tony emerged into the Bay of Campeche late on May 1, and quickly re-strengthened into a tropical storm. The storm began to curve to the northeast, and then strengthened into a hurricane early on May 3. On May 4 the storm shifted back to the West, now heading for Morgan City, Louisiana. It had developed a clear eye and a pressure of less than 950 millibars, very unusual for a Category 3 hurricane. It then slammed into Morgan City with winds of 125 MPH and a pressure of 945 millibars at around 7 PM CST. After making landfall, it turned to the Northeast, and dissipated at 11 PM UTC on May 5, just north of Memphis, Tennessee.

Damage in Louisiana was extensive. Morgan City got 22 inches of rain, and about 55% of the buildings were damaged in some way, while 20% were damaged beyond repair. A total of 162 people died in Louisiana, making Tony the second most deadliest Louisiana hurricane of the 21st Century, only behind Hurricane Katrina of 2005. It also caused four billion dollars in damages, making it the 6th most costly hurricane to affect Louisiana and the 23rd most costliest hurricane in Atlantic history. Tony also became the strongest hurricane recorded in the month of May, beating Hurricane Able of 1951.