2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season (CoffeeZombie)

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1st, 2018 and ended November 30th, 2018. *incomplete*

Seasonal forecasts
The NOAA released their first forecast on May 19, 2018. It projected a 80% chance of an above-average season, with a developing La Nina and above-average SSTs expected to fuel development. After a relatively active first two months of the season, the forecast was revised upwards, with projections lying around the range that the 2017 season had achieved a year prior. Both of these predictions ultimately fell short, however.

Season Summary
(center image here)

The 2018 season started early for the 4th consecutive year with the formation of Hurricane Alberto on May 16th. It strengthened in the face of moderate windshear to hit the Yucatan Peninsula at minimal Category 1 strength, becoming the first May hurricane since Hurricane Alma in 1970. There was little activity for the next few weeks until two successive African tropical waves developed into short-lived Tropical Storms Beryl and Chris. Another short period of inactivity followed, but on June 24th, TD Four formed west-southwest of Cape Verde and rapidly organized into Tropical Storm Debby 6 hours later. After rapidly strengthening on its trek across open ocean, the storm went through several eyewall replacement cycles but was a large hurricane at minimal category 5 intensity by the time it made landfall in the Lesser Antilles. Despite a fast forward speed, Debby's wide windfield carved a path of total destruction throughout the Caribbean as it fluctuated between Category 4 and 5 status. Curving upward and slowing down, it made landfall in western Cuba before crossing over the Florida Peninsula as a minimal hurricane. Emerging over the warm waters of the Gulf Current as a weakly defined tropical depression, Debby intensified back to Category 1 strength before transitioning to extratropical status as it began to race to the northeast, its remnants eventually hitting the UK. Debby cost an estimated 43.2 billion dollars in damage, which made it the 5th costliest hurricane at the time. Its death toll of 483 surpassed the entire previous season and was the highest count among the season's storms.

Immediately following Debby's dissipation on July 13th, Tropical Storm Ernesto formed in the southern Caribbean and intensified to become a strong tropical storm, but weakened upon reaching Debby's cold wake. It briefly reached hurricane status once over the warm Loop Current, but a subsequent decrease in SSTs and increase in wind shear weakened it by the time it reached the Mississippi coastline. The storm caused 3 deaths, but damage was reported to be minimal. On July 16th, another tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa but failed to organize in the midst of strong wind shear, briefly becoming Tropical Depression Six on two occasions before degenerating back into an open trough. Hundreds of miles northeast of Cuba, however, conditions became slightly more favorable, and advisories were initiated on Tropical Storm Florence. The storm did not strengthen much and despite tropical storm watches for Bermuda, the storm did not affect land. Hurricane Gordon developed on July 26th and followed in Florence's footsteps, but found a more hospitable environment, peaking at category 3 strength. The storm's outer rainbands brushed Bermuda, causing isolated flooding, but no damage was reported.

Activity waned again before the remnant energy of Pacific Hurricane John emerged into the extreme southern Caribbean. Though the disturbance was initially mired in strong windshear, it slowly drifted generally northward into slightly more favorable conditions, where it became a tropical depression and then subsequently intensified into Tropical Storm Helene on August 9th. It was then caught in stronger steering currents which propelled it westward, and the storm made landfall in Nicaragua the next day, causing 5.9 million in damage and 4 deaths.

A tropical wave emerged off the African coast on August 10th and slowly organized over the open Atlantic in a marginally supportive envrionment. As it tracked just north Caribbean as a strong tropical storm, it encountered a far more supportive environment and underwent rapid intensification, its winds increasing from 65 mph to 135 mph in a period of 36 hours, before capping out at wind speeds of 165 mph. Though its path took it very close to the islands of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba, which were beginning to recover from the devastation Debby brought, damage and death tolls were relatively low due to the storm's small windfield and fast motion. Its effects on the Bahamas to its north was similar as the storm split the ocean between the two groups of landmasses. Its only landfall in the region was in sparsely-populated Inagua at peak intensity. Turning to the north, it hit Florida at near-peak intensity on August 21st, including a direct hit to the Miami region. It continued to track north over Florida, steadily weakening while bringing heavy, flooding rainfall to the southeastern United States. Its fast track and small size prevented a possible hundred-billion dollar disaster, but the storm still caused 25 billion dollars in damage, mostly in Miami, as well as 103 deaths.

Activity was non-existent for the rest of the month, but September brought with it record pace. Starting the flurry was a period between September 3rd and September 11th in which 5 tropical cyclones formed. However, of these, only Leslie reached hurricane strength, peaking at winds of 135 mph. The other four cyclones were very short lived and two of them would be absorbed by the stronger Leslie, and none of the 5 affected land. However, the close proximity of the storms offered valuable insight on the mechanisms of the Fujiwhara Effect. A short week-long absence of tropical cyclones was followed by another burst of activity towards the end of the month, with Category 4 Oscar and Category 1 Patty forming in quick succession on opposite sides of the basin. Patty made landfall in southeastern Mexico, while a slightly weakening Oscar directly hits Bermuda on its racing track towards the northeast. Patty caused $200 million in damage and killed 109 people. Oscar's death toll was minimal but it caused similar damage to its counterpart.

Hurricane Rafael formed on October 3rd following a brief period of inactivity, and reached category 1 status, but did not affect land. Tropical Storm Sara followed on the 13th, but was short-lived and weak and remained out to sea.

The next storm to form was Hurricane Tony, which originated from a tropical wave in the western Caribbean just northeast of Honduras, becoming Tropical Storm Tony on October 21st. It steadily intensified at first, but then began rapidly deepening, achieving winds of 180 mph. Slightly less favorable conditions and another eyewall replacement cycle weakened it to category 4 strength as it began curving westward, but it nevertheless made landfall in western Louisiana as a powerful hurricane. Maintaining its slow motion, it straddled the coastline before finally moving inland over eastern Texas on October 30th. Damage was catastrophic, with $137 billion attributed to the storm, making it the costliest storm in history. However, the death toll was relatively low, owing to the slow motion of the hurricane which allowed plenty of time for people to evacuate.

November was relatively inactive, with only two storms forming. Tropical Storm Valerie formed in the northern Central Atlantic, but only achieved winds of 40 mph before succumbing to the colder sea surface temperatures of its region. Hurricane William became a strong category 4 hurricane and caused two deaths from its rip currents, but it did not otherwise affect land.

December brought with it one more storm -- Hurricane Alpha. With its formation on December 11th, it marked the second time in history that Greek letters had been used in cyclone naming following 2005. It meandered around in a very moist, unstable environment, but cool SSTs and moderate windshear were expected to inhibit development. The storm, however, defied forecasts and briefly reached minimum category 2 intensity before rapidly weakening as it moved into contact with a drier, more stable air mass.

Despite moderate windshear, Tony established excellent outflow channels and lay embedded in a very moist environment with very warm SSTs, and steadily intensified to Category 3 hurricane status as it drifted slowly northward in between the Yucatan Peninsula and the Cuban coastline. An eyewall replacement cycle weakened it below major hurricane strength, but subsequently decreasing windshear and increasing SSTs allowed for explosive intensification to occur. Over the very warm waters of the Loop Current, the storm intensified from winds of 105 mph to 180 as it crept towards the US coastline.