2011-12 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season/Advisories

Alenga
WTIO30 FMEE 181839 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/1/20112012 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1  (ALENGA) 2.A POSITION 2011/11/19 AT 1200 UTC

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM ALENGA HAS FORMED. THERE IS STRONG MODEL CONFIDENCE THAT ALENGA COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS SHOWN IN THE RSMC TRACK.

INIT: 040 KT...998 HPA...MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12HR: 060 KT...979 HPA...SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 24HR: 075 KT...968 HPA...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36HR: 070 KT...972 HPA...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48HR: 060 KT...978 HPA...SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 72HR: 045 KT...989 HPA...MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 96HR: DISSIPATED WTIO30 FMEE 181839 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/1/20112012 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 1  (ALENGA) 2.A POSITION 2011/11/19 AT 1800 UTC

RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS WHAT ALENGA IS DOING. THE RSMC TRACK HAS ALENGA PASSING NEAR LA REUNION AND MAURITIUS BEFORE HEADING SOUTHWARDS WHILE WEAKENING. BEFORE WEAKENING, ALENGA COULD BE A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

INIT: 070 KT...972 HPA...TROPICAL CYCLONE 12HR: 095 KT...949 HPA...INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 24HR: 105 KT...940 HPA...INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 36HR: 120 KT...929 HPA...VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 48HR: 140 KT...911 HPA...VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 72HR: 100 KT...941 HPA...INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 96HR: 065 KT...987 HPA...TROPICAL CYCLONE 120HR:040 KT...995 HPA...MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WTIO30 FMEE 181839 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/1/20112012 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 1  (ALENGA) 2.A POSITION 2011/11/20 AT 0000 UTC

ALENGA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYED INTO AN ITC AND SHOULD BECOME A VITC.

INIT: 100 KT...944 HPA...INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12HR: 130 KT...909 HPA...VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 24HR: 120 KT...922 HPA...VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 36HR: 125 KT...913 HPA...VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 48HR: 110 KT...928 HPA...INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 72HR: 085 KT...954 HPA...TROPICAL CYCLONE 96HR: 050 KT...979 HPA...MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 120HR:030 KT...1000HPA...TROPICAL DEPRESSION WTIO30 FMEE 181839 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/1/20112012 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 1  (ALENGA) 2.A POSITION 2011/11/20 AT 0600 UTC

MODELS ARE NOW GETTING UNSURE WHETHER ALENGA WILL BECOME A VITC. AN EWRC IS CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE WHICH MAY LIMIT THE TIME.

INIT: 110 KT...939 HPA...INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12HR: 105 KT...944 HPA...INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 24HR: 105 KT...946 HPA...INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 36HR: 110 KT...941 HPA...INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 48HR: 115 KT...936 HPA...VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 72HR: 135 KT...908 HPA...VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 96HR: 100 KT...963 HPA...INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 120HR:080 KT...982 HPA...TROPICAL CYCLONE WTIO30 FMEE 181839 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/1/20112012 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 1  (ALENGA) 2.A POSITION 2011/11/20 AT 1200 UTC

THE EWRC HAS BEEN COMPLETED AND ALENGA IS STRENGTHENING AGAIN. WITH THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST, ALENGA COULD BECOME THE STRONGEST SWIO CYCLONE EVER. AS THE STORM IS MOVING A LOT SLOWER, IT COULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN.

INIT: 100 KT...950 HPA...INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12HR: 130 KT...911 HPA...VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 24HR: 150 KT...899 HPA...VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 36HR: 155 KT...894 HPA...VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 48HR: 140 KT...901 HPA...VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 72HR: 110 KT...931 HPA...INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 96HR: 100 KT...948 HPA...INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 120HR:105 KT...943 HPA...INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WTIO30 FMEE 181839 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/1/20112012 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 1  (ALENGA) 2.A POSITION 2011/11/20 AT 1800 UTC

WELL THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS AMAZING. I AM SPEECHLESS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SPECTACULAR THINGS. THE TRACK BELOW SAYS IT ALL.

INIT: 110 KT...934 HPA...INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12HR: 130 KT...909 HPA...VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 24HR: 160 KT...889 HPA...VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 36HR: 175 KT...886 HPA...VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 48HR: 130 KT...914 HPA...VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 72HR: 120 KT...921 HPA...VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 96HR: 125 KT...917 HPA...VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 120HR:135 KT...910 HPA...VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WTIO30 FMEE 181839 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/1/20112012 1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 1  (ALENGA) 2.A POSITION 2011/11/21 AT 0000 UTC

IT LOOKS LIKE ALENGA MIGHT NOT BECOME THE STRONGEST TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE SWIO AFTER ALL. STRENGTHENING WIND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THE STORM IN 12 HRS.

INIT: 125 KT...901 HPA...VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12HR: 090 KT...954 HPA...INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 24HR: 050 KT...971 HPA...SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 36HR: 080 KT...937 HPA...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48HR: 120 KT...912 HPA...INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 72HR: 135 KT...904 HPA...VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 96HR: 120 KT...915 HPA...VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 120HR:090 KT...939 HPA...INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE