2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season (UYScuti's Prediction)

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1st, 2018 and ended November 30th, 2018.

Seasonal summary
The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, 2018. This season featured 26 tropical cyclones. Of the 26 cyclones, 22 strengthen attained tropical storm status, making it the second most active hurricane season on record, behind the 2005 season. 13 reached hurricane status, and 6 of these further intensified into major hurricanes. The Atlantic saw a slightly positive phase in the North Atlantic Oscillation up until late July. As a result, minimal activity was seen throughout the first 2 months. The main development region saw below average sea surface temperatures contrary to the western Atlantic Ocean, which saw above average temperatures.

Tropical cyclogenesis began in late May, featuring Tropical Storm Alberto forming on May 26, southeast of Bermuda. It passed east of Bermuda with little impact. Beryl led off the season as the first hurricane. It formed in the Gulf of Mexico after crossing Cuba on June 8. After reaching peak intensity on June 10. Activity in July featured tropical storms Chris and Debby, of which the latter tropical storm caused major flooding in Florida. Activity in July concluded with a tropical depression. August featured a tropical depression, and storms Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce and Kirk. All but Helene reached hurricane strengths. Hurricane Gordon left behind a trail of destruction throughout the Caribbean and the United States Gulf Coast. Estimated damage from Gordon reached $164.7 billion making it the costliest hurricane to ever exist. Hurricane Isaac was the deadliest hurricane of the season with over 2,308 reported deaths and counting. Hurricane Kirk ravaged the Leeward Islands before skimming the East Coast of the United States and making landfall in Virginia. The storm resulted in $58.5 billion in damage. September produced storms Leslie, Michael, Nadine and Oscar. Hurricane Nadine was the strongest hurricane of the season, causing destruction in the Western Caribbean, Florida and Bermuda. Total damage from the storm is expected to reach $17.3 billion. A tropical depression led the activity in October followed by storms Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony and Valerie. Rafael caused $13.1 billion in damage throughout Central America and Texas. November featured William and Alpha, the first time a storm was assigned a Greek name since 2005. Activity concluded with an unnumbered tropical depression developing south of the Azores, dissipating on December 3.

Seasonal activity was reflected with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy index value of 247.79 units, one of the highest on record in the Atlantic. Hurricane Kirk produced one of the highest ACE values on record, 65.73 units. The season saw 3 storms with an ACE index of over 40.

Tropical Storm Alberto
Tropical Storm Alberto forming on May 26, southeast of Bermuda. It passed east of Bermuda with little impact. The storm dissipated on May 29, northeast of Bermuda.

Hurricane Beryl
Beryl formed in the Gulf of Mexico after crossing Cuba on June 8. After reaching peak intensity on June 10, the storm made landfall as a tropical storm near the Alabama-Florida border, causing about $32 million in damage.

Tropical Storm Chris
Tropical Storm Chris formed on July 7 in the Bay of Campeche. It made landfall about 19 miles (30 km) south of Veracruz, inflicting at least $17.3 million damage.

Tropical Storm Debby
Just before the dissipation of Chris, Tropical Storm Debby formed east of Florida on July 9, making landfall near Vero Beach as a tropical depression with a southerly path due to a buildup in the subtropical ridge. The depression reached tropical storm status after making its second landfall in the Florida Keys. Debby turned north and made its final landfall near Horseshoe Beach as a minimal tropical storm on July 14. Debby possessed a slow movement throughout it's lifespan. Consequently, the cyclone dropped torrential rainfall resulting in widespread flooding across Florida. Total damage in the state reached $463 million.

Tropical Depression Five
Tropical Depression Five formed near the Lesser Antilles. The depression weakened due to strong wind shear and degenerated into a tropical wave a day later. It's remnant moisture contributed to the development of Hurricane Ernesto.

Hurricane Ernesto
On August 4, Hurricane Ernesto formed in the western Caribbean Sea and making landfall near the Belize-Mexico border. The cyclone underwent rapid intensification while emerging into the Bay of Campeche. The cyclone made its final landfall about 62 miles (100 km) north of Tampico as a Category 3 hurricane on August 10. The storm caused $537.4 million in damage throughout its lifespan.

Tropical Depression Seven
Tropical Depression Seven formed on August 6 causing minimal impact across the eastern Caribbean. The system, along with Hurricane Florence, executed a Fujiwhara Effect. The storm met its demise as it was absorbed by Hurricane Florence on August 9.

Hurricane Florence
A tropical wave meandered over the Bahamas coalesced into Hurricane Florence on August 7. It reached peak intensity as a Category 2 storm after absorbing Tropical Depression Seven. Weakening ensued after tracking into a less conductive environment and was classified as a tropical storm southwest of Bermuda. The storm saw a fluctuation in strength as it moved northward, passing west of Bermuda, peaking at hurricane strength despite strong wind shear. The storm underwent extratropical transition while located southeast of Nova Scotia.

Hurricane Gordon
The season saw its first Cape Verde hurricane on August 16 as Hurricane Gordon formed east of the Leeward Island. The storm wrought destruction and caused at least 1,319 deaths across the Caribbean, Mexico and the United States Gulf Coast. Gordon made landfall in Louisiana as a high-end Category 4 storm, the worst landfall since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The storm reemerged off the coast of Louisiana due to a blocking pattern after being overland for over 3 days, dropping more rainfall to already destroyed areas. The hurricane made its final landfall in Florida before dissipating over Virginia on September 1. The Southern United States had saw the worst impacts from Hurricane Gordon. The storm caused at least $138.7 billion across the United States mainland and a total of $164.7 billion in damage elsewhere.

Tropical Storm Helene
Tropical Storm Helene formed on August 18 west of Cape Verde. Dry air caused by Saharan Dust Layer and outflow from Hurricane Gordon deteriorated the storm's structure, causing it to degenerate into a tropical wave two days later.

Hurricane Isaac
Isaac formed on August 26, east of the Windward Islands. Isaac succumbed to the notorious wind shears of the Caribbean Sea two days after its formation. Isaac reorganized into a tropical storm while threatening landfall over Nicaragua. It unexpected intensified into a high-end Category 2 storm, making landfall over Nicaragua and causing over 2,308 deaths throughout Central America. Total damaged equated to at least $1.93 billion, the worst storm to hit Central America since Hurricane Felix in 2007.

Hurricane Joyce
Hurricane Joyce formed on August 28 over the northern Atlantic while heading westward towards the Northeastern United States, an unusual path for a cyclone at such latitudes. The cyclone reached hurricane strength from the Gulf Stream while turning northward. The storm made landfall in Newfoundland and subsequently lost all tropical characteristics over land. Damage from Joyce was at least $6 million, primarily from beach erosion across Atlantic Canada.

Hurricane Kirk
The formation of Hurricane Kirk on August 29 was the first time in 10 years where four simultaneous tropical cyclones were active at once. Despite prediction of losing tropical characteristics over the same area where Tropical Storm Helene dissipated, the storm maintained strength while battling strong wind shear and dry air. The storm unexpectedly strengthened into a category 1 hurricane a few days later. It went rapid intensification while posing a hazard across the Caribbean as a Category 4 hurricane. The storm moved across the Leeward Islands and slightly changed its trajectory to the northwest, relieving the ruined Puerto Rico from second landfall. The hurricane further intensified into a Category 5 hurricane while located just northwest of Puerto Rico as it tracked towards the Florida coast, threatening landfall. The storm pulled away after its closest approach to Florida and began a northerly track, and then a northeasterly track. The storm made a sharp turn to the northwest and made landfall in Virginia. In the wake of Hurricane Kirk, the storm caused $58.5 billion throughout its path, $51.2 billion in US territories alone. Norfolk, Washington, Baltimore and Philadelphia saw the worst impacts of Kirk.

Hurricane Leslie
Hurricane Leslie formed behind Hurricane Kirk on September 3. Cooler waters left behind from Kirk delayed further strengthening of Leslie. The storm reached peak intensity as a Category 4 hurricane while north of the Leeward Islands. It began experiencing strong wind shear, from the outflow of Kirk's northeasterly track. It weakened to tropical storm status within 30 hours while turning northward, in response to Kirk's path. The storm restrengthened to hurricane strength while located northeast of Bermuda and became extratropical while located far east of Newfoundland on September 14.

Tropical Storm Michael
Tropical Storm Michael formed on September 8 before moving over the Yucatán Pensinsula. Land interaction weakened the young storm to a tropical depression. It restrengthened after emerging into the Bay of Campeche and later attained high-end tropical storm strength before making landfall south of Tampico. Michael caused $58.2 million in damage.

Hurricane Nadine
Hurricane Nadine formed on September 22 after 10 days of quiescent activity, striking the Windward Island. It moved into the Caribbean Sea where conductive environment allowed the cyclone to intensify into a Category 5 storms. An eyewall replacement cycle slightly weaken the storm as it approached the Cayman Islands. While nearing Cuba, the storm intensified again and subsequently struck Cuba with winds of 175 mph (280 km/h). It weakening to a Category 2 storm and turned sharply east in response to an approaching trough, which would later become Tropical Depression Eighteen. The storm made landfall in the Florida Keys and mainland Florida. Warm sea surface temperatures allowed the storm to retain hurricane status as it moves into the open seas. The storm made a direct hit on Bermuda before undergoing extratropical transition west of Ireland. Significant damage in Cayman Islands and Cuba were reported with estimates of $3.81 billion and $3.5 billion, respectively. The storm caused at least $8.76 billion in Florida, mainly in the Florida keys. Overall, the storm caused $17.6 billion in damage.

Tropical Storm Oscar
Tropical Storm Oscar acquired subtropical characteristics east of Bermuda on September 24. It tracked northward passing just east of Newfoundland as a tropical storm. Minimal damage was reported.

Tropical Depression Eighteen
Tropical Depression Eighteen formed in the western Gulf of Mexico on October 3 from a trough and made landfall in Louisiana. One death was reported from rip currents.

Tropical Storm Patty
Tropical Storm Patty began to organize east of Bermuda on October 6 while accelerating east towards the Azores. Minimal damage was reported in the area. Additionally, the precursor to the storm caused minor damage across the Leeward Islands.

Hurricane Rafael
Hurricane Rafael formed east of Nicaragua on October 7 while moving northward. After striking the northern part of the country. The storm sharply turned west, striking Belize as a Category 3 storm. It emerged into the Bay of Campeche and made its final landfall over Texas as a Category 3 storm, just west of Freeport. The storm degenerated on October 15 and its remnants brought additional damage across Canada. In total, Rafael caused $13.1 billion in damage.

Tropical Storm Sara
After the degeneration of Rafael, Tropical Storm Sara followed, forming north of the Leeward Islands on October 15. The short-lived storm did not affect land as it opened into a tropical wave on October 17.

Hurricane Tony
Hurricane Tony formed on October 21 north of Puerto Rico. The storm reached peak intensity north of the Bahamas as a Category 2 storm. Upwelling weakened the storm to Category 1, and then to tropical storm status. It turned north and remained at sea throughout its lifespan. Minimal damage were reported in United Kingdom.

Hurricane Valerie
Hurricane Valerie formed on October 27 while possessing a northerly track, threatening the already severely damaged Cayman Islands, Jamaica and Cuba from previous hurricanes. It degenerated into a broad area of low pressure before striking Cuba. The remnants then moved over Florida before its dissipation off the coast. Valerie caused about $56.6 million in damage, mainly in Jamaica.

Hurricane William
Hurricane William formed on November 8 and tracked around the periphery of Central America. The storm reached Category 2 strength while located north of Honduras. The storm opened into a tropical wave while it emerged into the Gulf of Mexico. The remnants executed a cyclonic loop and struck Florida before merging into a cold front off the coast of the United States. The storm caused a mere $20 million in damage across Central America and the United States Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Alpha
Tropical Storm Alpha formed from a decaying cold front on November 22. It tracked eastward and then northward, striking Azores with peak intensity of 65 mph (100 km/h) winds. The storm began a northwesterly movement while undergoing extratropical transition. The remnants turned back and brought additional rainfall over the Azores while tracking towards Western Europe causing widespread destruction. The storm caused about $277.6 million in damage.

Unnumbered Tropical Depression
A tropical depression went unnoticed on December 2 while threatening Azores from the south. The storm completely vanished without affecting any land. Minimal rainfall was recorded across the archipelago.

Other Systems
On September 9, 2018, the NHC began monitoring a vigorous tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa. While nearing the Bahamas, the NHC designated this system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen on September 15 as it had a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. However, proximity to land debilitated the system as the inchoate system nears the Carolinas with a slow northerly movement. An approaching cold front is expected to absorb the storm the next day. Consequently, the NHC issued it's last advisory on September 19 before the system merged into the front moving off the coast of United States. The deterioration of the front a few days prior to the absorption ultimately led to the development of Tropical Storm Oscar.

Storm names
The names listed below were used to name storms that formed in the Northern Atlantic during 2018. Names that were not used during the season are marked in gray. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2024 season. This is the same list used in the 2012 season with the exception of the name Sara, which replaced Sandy.

Retirement
On April 12, 2019, at the 41st session of the Regional Association Hurricane Committee, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) retired five names from its rotating name lists: Gordon, Isaac, Kirk, Nadine, and Rafael.

Season Effects
This is a table of the storms and their effects in the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. This table includes the storm's names, duration, peak intensity, Areas affected (bold indicates made landfall in that region at least once), damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but are still storm-related. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave or a low. All of the damage figures are in 2018 USD (the listed damage figure is in millions).