2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season (ProtoJeb21)

The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season was an above-average season with activity before and after the official boundaries. The season began with Hurricane Arthur, the first major hurricane during the month of April. Many of the storms this season were record-breakers or had unusual characteristics.

Several major hurricanes made landfall in the United States and its territories, either as Category 3+ or below peak intensity. This is the largest amount since 2005. The strongest of those, Hurricane Isaias, became the second strongest Atlantic hurricane behind Wilma in 2005, and the deadliest tropical cyclone since Hurricane Matthew of 2016. This season also featured Hurricane Laura, the first cyclone to cross from the Atlantic to the Pacific and make landfall in northern Baha California.

Most forecasters predicted a slightly above average season. However, when there were already 13 named storms by August 31st, the forecasts were changed to a hyperactive year like 2005. Tropical activity suddenly stopped for a 3.5-week period, leading to a season between both predictions. Overall the season resulted in $67 billion in damage and 1,305 deaths, making it the costliest since 2012 and the deadliest since 2016.

Seasonal Forecasts
In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA)'s National Hurricane and Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk, the United Kingdom's Met Office, and Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray and their associates at Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained roughly 12 tropical storms, six hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and anaccumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 66–103 units.[3][5] NOAA typically categorizes a season as either above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE Index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season are considered occasionally as well.

Pre-season forecasts
On December 20th, 2019, the public consortium Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) predicted a slightly above average season. They said that the 2020 season should see 13 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. The prediction was based on the high activity in the Atlantic since the deadly 2016 season, but also of a potential El Nino later in the year. Also, TSR forecasts showed that the waters from Cape Verde to the Caribbean would start out warmer than average and conductive to potential cyclone development. Weather Services International (WSI), a subsidiary company of The Weather Channel, followed up on TSR's forecast in January 2020, saying that the year could spawn up to 14 storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

TSR released their second long-range forecast on April 14th with a slightly different prediction: 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. However, they revised their prediction when Tropical Depression One (later Hurricane Arthur) formed just a week later. The new forecast predicted 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. NOAA released their forecast just a day later, predicting 17 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. WSI and CSU also had similar predictions, and all groups forecast ACE index values between 100 and 150.

Mid-season forecasts
By the final day of August 2020, there had already been an above-average number of cyclones, forcing NOAA and other weather agencies to make new predictions. TSR released a forecast on September 3rd that predicted a total of 26 named storms, 17 hurricanes, and 10 major hurricanes by the end of the year. They also predicted an ACE index value of at least 200. NOAA predicted another 10 named storms for 2020 and a total ACE value of 215. In the end, these forecasts turned out to be far above what actually happened.

Seasonal Summary
The 2020 season was a significantly active year, where 20 total cyclones formed from the months of April through December, similar to the 2003 season. 18 cyclones were named, and 15 of those peaked with winds of over 75 mph. 7 hurricanes peaked at Category 3 intensity of higher, with most of those forming between July and September. With such a large amount of storms came many odd and notable ones. Hurricane Arthur became the earliest major hurricane on record, peaking at Category 3 intensity on April 25th. Tropical Storm Cristobal peaked at Tropical Storm intensity a total of 3 times before dissipating on June 18th. On August 13th, Hurricane Isaias became the strongest Atlantic Hurricane since 2005's Wilma.

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