2019 What-might-have-been Atlantic hurricane season

The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season is a very active and hyperactive season. The season officially began on June 1 and ended on November 30. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin and are adopted by convention. However, tropical cyclogenesis is possible at any time of the year, as demonstrated by the formation of Tropical Storm Alicia on May 17.

The season's first hurricane, Blake, formed on June and had a weird path towards East Coast of the United States. After weeks of inactivity, the first major hurricane, Chelsea, formed inland and managed to hit the Gulf Coast as a Category 4 hurricane. Succession of hurricanes follows, such as Devin and Evelyn peaking as minimal hurricanes. Hurricane Felix is a strong hurricane but mainly harmless. Afterwards, the basin turned quiet, but Hurricane Humberto started to form and later Ingrid, the strongest of the season, became the most damaging and became really destructive as it almost washed out the Caribbean and the US East Coast. Hurricane Jeff, Karen and Lorenzo soon followed as minimal hurricanes, in which the latter caused massive damage.

This is soon followed by Hurricane Michelle, a mainly harmless but strong hurricane in the open ocean. Nestor is a weak hurricane, and later Opal is a strong fishspinner. Pablo and Rebekah are strong hurricanes that ravaged the Caribbean Islands and the areas affected by Ingrid. Hurricane Steve is a weak hurricane, but managed to become the wettest hurricane in this season. Tanya and Van are monster hurricanes that absolutely wrecked the Caribbean. Later, Hurricane Winona becomes the strongest hurricane to never make landfall. Winona later affected Western Europe as an extratropical cyclone. After Winona, the season became a little bit quiet with quick succession of weaker hurricanes. Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon and Zeta are weaker tropical cyclones that existed from late September to mid October. Hurricanes Eta and Theta are more destructive and strong hurricanes that affected the Gulf Coast. Iota is also a really strong hurricane but it made landfall in Iberian Peninsula. Kappa and Lambda are slightly weaker ones, but Mu, the last storm of the season, is a quite strong late-season hurricane that is a fishspinner.

Tropical Storm Alicia
A new upper-level trough originating in the mid-latitudes separated into a separate low on May 14. The low transversed westward over the western Atlantic for the next day as convection began to appear in the east and on May 16, it began to interact with the dissipating cold front. A larger low pressure area appeared, and later, the system had acquired a well-defined center of circulation, and was producing clustered thunderstorms from the center. On May 17, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) estimated that the system became Subtropical Storm Alicia over the Western Atlantic. The system continued to gain more tropical characteristics as it moved westward, and on May 19, the NHC officially designated it as a tropical storm. Alicia continued strengthening while moving northward. Later, it managed to reach its peak intensity with winds of 70 mph and pressure of 990 millibars, and almost having an eye-like center. However, the cyclone soon began to encounter dry air into its circulation while wind shear increased, resulting in a rapid weakening of the the storm. By May 23, Alicia's became extratropical. It would later be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone hours later.

Hurricane Blake
A new tropical wave is soon spotted off the coast of Africa on May 25. It would not see some convection until it reached the Caribbean Sea four days later. Convection began to increase in the sea and sea surface temperatures are getting higher for a tropical cyclone development. On June 2, the National Hurricane Center designated the system as a tropical depression. It soon made landfall in Yucatan Peninsula and weakened for a bit. Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico are starting to be favorable again, in which the depression shows signs of convection increase in all directions. Soon, it would be upgraded to Tropical Storm Blake. Despie intensification, Blake stayed generally weak and small, showing little signs of tropical cyclone development before making landfall on June 6. Afterwards, Blake degenerated to a remnant low. Despite being overland, Blake never lost it's circulation, and it still maintained it due to brown ocean effect. Blake, after 2 days, would later reemerge into the Atlantic from the Maryland coast. It regained tropical storm strength and started to move southwestward. It began strengthening but maintained its small size. An eye soon formed and reached hurricane strength. It deepened rapidly and reach winds of 90 mph with pressure of 964 millibars, still keeping it as a Category 1 hurricane. It abruptly turned north and made landfall in North Carolina and turned extratropical on June 14. Later, it was fully absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone.

Hurricane Chelsea
A convective vortex in the Midwest began to move southward towards the Gulf of Mexico. On July 6, the NHC began monitoring the disturbance and it is expected to move southward towards the Gulf of Mexico. It moved southward while gaining tropical characteristics. The low-pressure system, while still lacking a well-defined circulation, became a somehow better defined on the following day. Brown ocean effect allowed the disturbance, and later it started to become well-defined. Later, the National Hurricane Center designated it as a potential tropical cyclone on July 10, and the following day, it strengthened to a tropical storm and named Chelsea. On July 13, sea surface temperatures started to skyrocket, and Chelsea strengthened to a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico while starting to move westward. Rapid intensification is currently happening and it managed to strengthen rapidly to a Category 4 hurricane while still in the Gulf of Mexico. Chelsea eventually reached its peak intensity before turning northward. Chelsea slightly weakened as it made landfall in Louisiana on July 15. Chelsea eventually started to weaken significantly and on July 16, Chelsea rapidly turned extratropical. On the following day, Chelsea was absorbed by an extratropical low.

Hurricane Devin
A new tropical wave is spotted in the Atlantic on July 7, off the coast of Africa. However, conditions are initially favroable for the disturbance. However, development is expected sooner as it moved away from Cape Verde. Conditions became increasingly favorable while it moved westward. On July 12, a tropical depression formed, and later it became a tropical storm named Devin. Devin moved westward in the Northern Atlantic, heading towards the Caribbean. Devin eventually started to strengthen further, with an eye appearing on its structure. On July 16, Devin became a Category 1 hurricane while approaching the Caribbean. Later, Devin would eventually strengthen to a Category 2 hurricane, and it passed north of the Lesser Antilles. Devin eventually strengthened a little bit, but still kept at Category 2 strength while having a low pressure of 958 millibars. Devin peaked while several kilometers north of Puerto Rico as it moved northwestward. Later, it turned north and started to weaken graudally, mainly due to cold sea surface temperatures. It weakened to a Category 1 hurricane on July 21, and turned extratropical on July 24. It is absorbed by a large extratropical cyclone a day after.

Hurricane Evelyn
A new tropical disturbance is spotted in the Caribbean Sea. It is currently moving westward, and it started to gradually develop sooner as it approaches Haiti. Later, it developed to a tropical depression on July 20. Sooner, it strengthened to a tropical storm while transversing west of Florida, and named Evelyn. Evelyn moved northward while situated between Bahamas and Florida. Later, Evelyn would strengthen soon to a Category 1 hurricane, in which it is starting to head towards North Carolina. Evelyn strengthened even further to a Category 2 hurricane before weakening a bit, which later made a slight landfall in North Carolina as a Category 1 hurricane. Evelyn significantly weakened to a tropical storm while it started to move eastward. Evelyn moved eastward but it managed to restrengthen again to a weak hurricane before it started to significantly weaken. It turned extratropical on June 29, and later it got absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone.

Hurricane Felix
A new tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on July 24. It was a very disorganized wave that never organized for several days, and at one point it almost dissipated. The tropical wave started to organize on July 27 when it approaches the Caribbean Sea. The low started to gather more convection, in which it would later become crucial for tropical cyclone development. The low developed to a tropical depression on July 29, and later as a tropical storm next day. Named Felix, this tropical storm would eventually strengthen soon. Felix started to move northwestward, reaching the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico. Felix strenghened further while moving northwestward, and on August 2, Felix strengthened to a weak hurricane. Felix started to move away from the Caribbean and would strengthen even further to a Category 2 hurricane. Sooner, Felix managed to strengthen even further to a Category 4 hurricane while in the Western Atlantic. Felix reached its peak intensity of 145 mph. Felix started to move northeast while starting to weaken while approaching Bermuda. Over the course of hours, Felix gradually weakened while entering the colder Atlantic waters. On August 5, Felix started to lose tropical characteristics. On August 7, Felix fully turned extratropical.

Tropical Storm Geraldine
A new tropical wave is spotted off the coast of Africa. On July 28, the NHC designated it with high chances of development. On July 30, A tropical depression formed near Cape Verde. On August 1, this tropical depression strengthened to Tropical Storm Geraldine. Geraldine strengtened for a bit, but it remained very weak in unfavorable conditions. Geraldine continued to struggle in high wind shear, thus preventing any further intensification. Geraldine managed to hang on for a while for several days before starting to weaken on August 4. Geraldine weakened to a tropical depression shortly, and the next day it fully degenerated to a remnant low.

Hurricane Humberto
On August 12, a cold front moved near Florida from the Gulf of Mexico and became nearly stationary for few days. The frontal low generated moderate southwesterly winds just off the coast in Gulf of Mexico. Sooner, a low-pressure system developed near Florida from the frontal system. The small low moved northeastward while gaining a well-defined circulation through the following day. On August 20, the system became a tropical depression while emerging in the Atlantic Ocean. Later that day, the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Humberto on August 21. Initially, marginal sea surface temperatures and moderate southwesterly shear prevented Humberto from strengthening further, but environment conditions became more favorable as it progressed further. Humberto strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane on August 22. Humberto then encountered the same marginal SSTs which caused it to weaken and also gradually make a large loop. Humberto strengthened again to a Category 1 hurricane but soon it started to weaken rapidly. On August 25, the system degenerated into a remnant low as deep convection dissipated.

Hurricane Ingrid
On August 20, a tropical low started to develop with a tropical wave over the Atlantic Ocean, between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. The system started to organize as deep convection is forming and on August 22, it was classified as a tropical depression a day later. That same day, it gained tropical storm strength and was named Ingrid. On August 25, Ingrid began to gradually strengthen. Marginally high sea surface temperatures and low wind shear allowed Ingrid to strengthen to a hurricane on August 26. Ingrid began to gradually strengthen as it moved towards the Caribbean, reaching Category 2 a day later. It moved over Lesser Antilles as eye began to warm and become more well-organized. Ingrid reached Category 3 strength the next day, and to Category 4 the following day. Ingrid then started to become more annular as it progressed towards Bahamas. Ingrid strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane on August 29. At this point, Dorian encountered an area with very low wind shear and unusually high sea surface temperatures not seen since Hurricane Katrina of 2017. Due to extraordinarily favorable conditions, Ingrid began rapid deepening and intensification as it races towards the Bahamas. Ingrid at that time is expected to strengthen for a short time, but Ingrid strengthened with winds of 180 mph.

Ingrid would later strengthen even further while reaching Bahamas. Ingrid then reached winds of 200 mph as it first reached Bahamas. With all of these, Ingrid began to exand drastically, with its cloud cover reaching as far as Boston and Mexico City. Ingrid then reached its peak intensity of 235 mph and an extremely low pressure of 860 millibars, lowest since the 2017 season. Ingrid then reached its closest distance to Miami and its eyewall covered almost the entire Floridan landmass. Ingrid started to gradually weaken in its course, but maintaining its extremely huge structure as it moved northward. Over time, Ingrid maintained its Category 5 strength until it made landfall in North Carolina, weakening it to a Category 4. It maintained its Category 4 strength until making landfall in Massachusetts. Ingrid weakened to a Category 3 hurricane but it also maintained its strength as it made landfall in Nova Scotia with the same strength. At this point, Ingrid started to lose tropical characteristics, but as it moved towards Newfoundland, Ingrid was still fully tropical. Finally, Imelda turned extratropical on September 6 while south of Greenland, making Ingrid the northernmost tropical cyclone ever recorded in history. Despite this, Ingrid even deepened further as it moved near Iceland. Eventually, on September 8, Ingrid was fully absorbed by another extratropical cyclone.

Hurricane Jeff
On August 19, a low pressure area, accompanied by a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, from along with an association of a tropical wave in the Southwestern Atlantic. The low drifted northwestward, eventually over southeastern Florida on August 24 and degenerating into a trough of low pressure. However, deep convection increased along the trough early on August 26, and on August 25, a new tropical depression formed. The depression moved northwestward, and later a large burst of convection developed, and the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Jeff the following day. Jeff started strengthening as it approaches the Bahamas, then it turned northeastward. Jeff continued to strengthen as it reached hurricane strength on August 28, and later Category 2 strength the following day. Jeff eventually started to gradually weaken as it progressed northeastward, but it still managed to retain hurricane strength for quite some time, as it crossed over Bermuda. Jeff started to lose tropical characteristics, and on September 1, Jeff turned extratropical. The following day, it was absorbed by a larger extratropical low.

Tropical Storm Karen
A new frontal low off the coast of Louisiana is spotted. The Gulf of Mexico, where the disturbance is located, currently has marginal sea surface temperatures so development is limited. However, by August 23, tropical cyclone development is getting more favorable as SSTs increased. The disturbance is becoming more developed as it progressed in the Gulf of Mexico. On August 26, a new tropical depression formed, and the following day, it made landfall in Louisiana, strengthening to Tropical Storm Karen. Karen made landfall in United States the following day, weakening back to tropical depression, then restrengthening again the following day as Karen emerged into the ocean. Karen strengthened a bit as moved northward towards the East Coast of the US. Karen strengthened for a while before finally making landfall in US, eventually turning extratropical on September 2.

Hurricane Lorenzo
broad area of low pressure began to be monitored over the Caribbean Sea on August 29 for potential tropical cyclone development. The system gradually developed while moving slowly towards the Gulf of Mexico. On September 1, the satellite imagery showed that the surface circulation became better defined, and that the system formed into a tropical depression. Six hours later, the system organized into the Tropical Storm Lorenzo. Lorenzo started to strengthen while emerging into warmer Gulf of Mexico. Lorenzo eventually strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane on September 4. It remained ragged and had no eye until six hours later. However, Lorenzo would rapidly deepen as it moves closer to Mexico. Lorenzo strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane 18 hours later. Lorenzo would eventually make landfall and eventually weaken in rugged mountainous Mexican terrain. Lorenzo weakened to a tropical storm, and lt rapidly dissipated on September 6.

Hurricane Michelle
On August 30, the NHC began monitoring a tropical wave emerging from the west coast of Africa. The tropical wave that emerged slowly organized while moving westward over the next few days. The system eventually strengthened into a tropical depression late on September 2, before intensifying further into Tropical Storm Michelle. Eventually, Michelle strengthened, reaching hurricane strength the next day. However, Michelle weakened back after strengthening. Soon afterward, Michelle began tracking westward, before turning northeastward and eventually entering the northern part of the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, on September 5. Michelle started to strengthen again as it progressed in the same direction, and it strengthened back to hurricane strength. Michelle then strengthened further to Category 2, and later 3 strength. Michelle gained even further as it strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane. Michelle kept its strengh before starting to weaken as it raced northeastward. Michelle started to weaken, as it enters some colder waters and began its extratropical transition. Michelle completed its extratropical transition on September 12 as it struck the British Isles.

Hurricane Nestor
A low pressure area is currently spotted near the Lesser Antilles. The low stayed very disorganized, but sooner it started to form a much organized system with increased convection. The low organized some more and on September 6, a new tropical depression has formed. The following day, it strengthened to Tropical Storm Nestor. Nestor began to strengthen as it gradually moved northward. Nestor reached hurricane strength on September 9 as it moved northeastward. Nestor gained a slightly clearer eye in the process, but it began to slowly weaken while entering cooler waters. Nestor weakened to a tropical storm on September 11, and it fully turned extratropical afterwards.