2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season (Predictions)

The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season was a above average hurricane season. With the continued strengthening of the La Nina, activity was much higher than previous years. Normal time for activity in this basin is from June 1 to November 30, however tropical cyclone formation is possible at anytime of the year.

Seasonal Forecasts
In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Hurricane and Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk, the United Kingdom's Met Office, and Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Grayand their associates at Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained roughly 12 tropical storms, six hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 66–103 units.NOAA typically categorizes a season as either above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE Index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season are considered occasionally as well.

Preseason Forecasts
On December 9, 2014, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a public consortium consisting of experts on insurance, risk management, and seasonal climate forecasting at University College London, issued its first outlook on seasonal hurricane activity during the 2017 season. In its report, the TSR predicted 15 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and a cumulative ACE index of 100 units. This forecast was largely based on the possibility of a Moderate La Niña forming by July to August Timeframe.