2016 Atlantic hurricane season (Live Version) (Sassmaster15)

The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing annual event of tropical cyclone formation in the North Atlantic ocean. The season began June 1 and will conclude November 30; these are the dates that conventionally limit tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic basin and are adopted by convention. However, tropical cyclone formation is possible any time of the year. As of July 24, 2016, the season's first named storm, Alex, developed in the Gulf of Mexico, nearly two months after the official start. Alex would later make landfall as a minimal hurricane in Pensacola, Florida. After a short respite in activity, Tropical Depression Two formed in the Gulf Stream. Hurricane Bonnie soon followed, developing near the Leeward Islands. Only days later, Tropical Storm Colin formed near Cape Verde.

To this point, most forecasting groups have expected this season to be above average to very active, due to a combination of factors including an expected transition to La Niña and warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and Western Atlantic, despite near-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region near Cape Verde.

Seasonal Forecasts
The SMWC and all partnering centers released their official outlooks for the season in the box below:

July
After remaining dormant for nearly two months after the official start, tropical cyclogenesis first began with Hurricane Alex in the western Caribbean Sea. Alex traveled north-northeast across the Gulf of Mexico and eventually became a minimal hurricane prior to making landfall in the western Florida panhandle. Alex was the first hurricane landfall in the state of Florida in over a decade since 2005's Hurricane Wilma. Alex later transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone over New England on July 27.

August
Tropical cyclogenesis began once again on August 2, after an occluded cyclone separated from its frontal boundaries and became Tropical Depression Two east of North Carolina. Two failed to intensify beyond tropical depression status and later brushed Massachussets. The remnants of the system later made landfall in Nova Scotia, where it produced heavy rainfall. Hurricane Bonnie soon followed, forming out of a Cape Verde tropical wave. The system later intensified to a minimal hurricane east of the Leeward Islands, soon making landfall over Antigua. On August 13, Tropical Storm Colin formed near Cape Verde.

Tropical Outlook
SASS MASTER WEATHER CENTER CLEVELAND, OH TROPICAL OUTLOOK 7 PM EDT, SAT AUG 13

Hurricane BONNIE

...BONNIE STILL OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

Maximum Sustained Winds: 65 KT (75 MPH), Minimum Pressure: 989 mbar Movement: WSW at 3 MPH

For a minimal hurricane the Leeward Islands...Hurricane Bonnie has undergone no significant change in strength since making landfall over the island of Montserrat. Hurricane-force winds are more than likely affecting the entire warning area, with tropical-storm force winds extending beyond the warning area. This evening, Bonnie is expected to depart the Leeward Islands and emerge into the Caribbean overnight. Hurricane Warnings remain in effect for the islands of Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Saba, St. Croix, St. Knitts, and Nevis. The Hurricane Warnings for Antigua and Barbuda have been discontinued and replaced with Tropical Storm Warnings. All residents should be taking shelter. Bonnie is expected to continue strengthening as it emerges in the Caribbean overnight. All interests throughout the Caribbean, especially Cuba, should continue to monitor the progress of Bonnie.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY

TOMORROW AT 10 AM.....75 KNOTS...85 MPH TOMORROW AT 4 PM......85 KNOTS...100 MPH/CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE TOMORROW AT 7 PM......90 KNOTS...105 MPH MONDAY AT 10 AM.......100 KNOTS..115 MPH/MAJOR HURRICANE/CAYMAM ISLANDS AFFECTED MONDAY AT 4 PM........100 KNOTS..115 MPH/APPROACHES CUBA MONDAY AT 7 PM........100 KNOTS..115 MPH/LANDFALL IN CUBA TUESDAY AT 10 AM......110 KNOTS..125 MPH/EMERGES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY AT 4 PM.......115 KNOTS..130 MPH/CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE TUESDAY AT 7 PM.......120 KNOTS..140 MPH

ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INCLUDING...ST MARTIN...ST CROIX...ST BARTHELEMY...SABA...ST KNITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA TROPICAL STORM WARNING ENCOMPASSING THE ABOVE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INCLUDING...ST CROIX...SABA...ST KNITTS...NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT HURRICANE WARNING ENCOMPASSING THE ABOVE HURRICANE WATCH AREA FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR ST. JOHN'S PARISH ON ANTIGUA

MARINE ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS

RIP CURRENT WARNING FOR WATERS AROUND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...ST KNITTS...AND GUADELOUPE

EVACUATION ORDERS

NONE

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND --

WIND..........HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. THE ISLANDS OF MONTSERRAT AND ANTIGUA ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING THE STRONGEST OF WINDS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE SPREADING TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA. A METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE IN PLYMOUTH RECENTLY RECORD SUSTAINED WINDS OF 74 MILES PER HOUR. EXPECT DAMAGE TO TREES, ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND POWER LINES. EXTREME CAUTION IS RECOMMENDED.

RAIN..........BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ANYWHERE FROM 9 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MORE MODERATE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE VIRGIN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS ARE PROJECTED TO RECEIVE THE FOLLOWING RAINFALL TOTALS DURING BONNIE'S PASSAGE:


 * MONTSERRAT...12 TO 14 INCHES
 * ANTIGUA......13 TO 15 INCHES
 * NEVIS........9 TO 11 INCHES
 * ST KNITTS....8 TO 9 INCHES
 * GUADELOUPE...9 TO 12 INCHES
 * BARBUDA......6 TO 8 INCHES
 * ST CROIX.....6 TO 9 INCHES
 * SABA.........5 TO 7 INCHES

ISOLATED SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAY SEE UPWARDS OF 20 INCHES OF RAINFALL. OTHER AREAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE ABOVE LIST MAY SEE UP TO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

FLOODING......FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR FROM TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND/OR STORM SURGE DURING BONNIE. MOST VULNERABLE ARE VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS, OF WHICH MAY FLOOD VERY RAPIDLY. DRIVERS ARE RECOMMENDED TO STAY OFF ROADS WHICH MAY FLOOD DURING BONNIE. MOST ROADS IN ST. JOHN'S PARISH IN ANTIGUA HAVE BEEN RENDERED AS IMPASSIBLE DUE TO HEAVY FLOODING. SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH IS TO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTLINE.

STORM SURGE...A LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM SURGE HAS BEGUN AFFECTING SEVERAL ISLANDS THROUGHOUT THE LEEWARD CHAIN, MAINLY MONTSERRAT. APPROXIMATELY A SIX TO EIGHT FOOT STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. COASTAL AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE OVERWASH, EROSION, AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SMWC BUOY #7634580 FIVE MILES OFF THE COAST OF MONTSERRAT RECENTLY RECORDED A MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF TWELVE FEET.

Next complete advisory at 10 A.M. EDT tomorrow. In the meantime, special advisories maybe issued if conditions warrant. For further information, please consult the products provided by your local National Weather Service. Advisories, watches, and warnings updated on the hour.

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FORECASTER SASSMASTER

NNNN SASS MASTER WEATHER CENTER CLEVELAND, OH TROPICAL OUTLOOK 11 PM EDT, SAT AUG 13

Tropical Storm COLIN (SPECIAL ADVISORY)

...93L BECOMES THIRD NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON...CAPE VERDE TO BE AFFECTED...

Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 kt (40 MPH), Minimum Pressure: 1009 mbar Movement: WNW at 10 MPH

For a new tropical wave near Cape Verde...Quite unexpectedly, an SMWC recon flight investigating 93L has identified a lower-level closed circulation in addition to sustained winds of 35 knots. As such, we have assigned this system the name Colin. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Cape Verde islands as this system is expected to pass directly over the archipelago by tomorrow morning. Potential for strengthening is possible between now and the time of landfall tomorrow. All interests throughout Cape Verde should continue to monitor the progress of Colin.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY

TOMORROW AT 10 AM.....40 KNOTS...45 MPH/APPROACHES MAIO TOMORROW AT 4 PM......50 KNOTS...60 MPH TOMORROW AT 7 PM......55 KNOTS...65 MPH MONDAY AT 10 AM.......65 KNOTS...75 MPH/HURRICANE MONDAY AT 4 PM........80 KNOTS...90 MPH MONDAY AT 7 PM........90 KNOTS...105 MPH/CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE TUESDAY AT 10 AM......85 KNOTS...100 MPH TUESDAY AT 4 PM.......75 KNOTS...85 MPH/CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE TUESDAY AT 7 PM.......60 KNOTS...70 MPH/TROPICAL STORM/APPROACHES LESSER ANTILLES

ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING...BAO VISTA...SAL...SAU NICOLAU...SAO ANTAO...AND SAO VICENTE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING...BRAVA...FOGO...SANTIAGO...AND MAIO FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING...MAIO...AND BAO VISTA

MARINE ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS

RIP CURRENT WATCH FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING...BRAVA...FOGO...SANTIAGO...MAIO...BAO VISTA...SAL...SAO NICOLAU...SAO ANTAO...AND SAO VICENTE RIP CURRENT WATCH FOR COASTAL WATERS ALONG WESTERN AFRICA...INCLUDING...COASTAL WATERS NEAR SENEGAL...AND GAMBIA

EVACUATION ORDERS

NONE

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND --

RAINFALL......REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, 93L IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THE ISLANDS OF BRAVA, FOGO, MAIO, AND SANTIAGO MAY RECEIVE UP TO FIVE INCHES OF RAINFALL. OTHER ISLANDS WILL RECEIVE MORE MODERATE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS ARE PROJECTED TO RECEIVE THE FOLLOWING RAINFALL TOTALS DURING COLIN'S PASSAGE:


 * BRAVA......3 TO 5 INCHES
 * FOGO.......4 TO 6 INCHES
 * SANTIAGO...4 TO 6 INCHES
 * MAIO.......5 TO 7 INCHES

ISOLATED SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAY SEE UP TO TEN INCHES OF RAINFALL. OTHER ISLANDS NOT INCLUDED IN THE ABOVE LIST MAY STILL SEE UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

WIND..........TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN AFFECTING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CAUTION IS RECOMMENDED.

STORM SURGE...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ABOVE-NORMAL STORM SURGE PEAKING AT TWO FEET IN HEIGHT. COASTAL AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE OVERWASH AND MINOR FLOODING. STORM TIDES MAY PEAK AT FOUR FEET ABOVE NORMAL DURING COLIN'S PASSAGE. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES.

Next complete advisory at 10 A.M. EDT tomorrow. In the meantime, additonal special advisories maybe issued if conditions warrant. For further information, please consult the products provided by your local National Weather Service. Advisories, watches, and warnings updated on the hour.

$$

FORECASTER SASSMASTER

NNNN

Hurricane Alex
On July 22, an area of disturbed weather traveling through the Caribbean later shifted to the northwest after a building ridge of high pressure to the southwest induced the directional change. Initially, another trough ahead of the disturbance resulted in it stalling just to the southwest of Cuba. However, the trough soon dissipated and the system later consolidated into the season's first tropical depression the next day. Continuing to travel on a near-northernly track to the west of Cuba, lessening wind shear allowed for additional intensification, thus, the system became Tropical Storm Alex the same day. On July 24, Alex entered the Gulf of Mexico while situated to the west of the Dry Tortugas. Since then, Alex continued to accelerate north-northeast towards the United States Gulf Coast. After rapidly growing in size, Alex attained winds of 65 knots, the required threshold for minimal hurricane status; the first of the season. Several hours later, a convective blowup took place in the core of the hurricane. This resulted in the storm attaining winds of 70 knots; its peak intensity. At 00:00 UTC, Alex made landfall at that intensity just east of Pensacola, Florida. Alex became the first hurricane-strength tropical cyclone to make landfall in Florida since Hurricane Wilma of 2005. Some destruction ensued from the hurricane, including severe flooding in Navarre Beach, where two fatalities were later reported. Alex weakened to a tropical storm upon crossing the Florida-Georgia border, persisting as a fully tropical cyclone despite unfavorable conditions due to land interaction. At 13:00 UTC, July 27, Alex was designated as a post-tropical cyclone whilst over West Virginia. At the time, the cyclone was retaining maximum sustained winds of 50 knots. The PT cyclone continued on a course north-northeast, where it was absorbed into a frontal system the following day over Quebec.

Upon landfall near Pensacola, the area was subjected to torrential rainfall and hurricane-force winds of 70 knots. Alex caused sporadic power outages throughout the western Florida panhandle, with the city of Navarre being the worst affected. At the height of the hurricane, Alex caused nearly 9,000 customers to lose electrical power. Wind damage was severely exacerbated in Fort Walton Beach by an EF1 tornado, which destroyed thirty-three houses and left another twenty-one roofless. Despite landfall at low tide, storm tides peaked at nearly four feet in height. Santa Rosa Island was mostly inundated by a four foot storm surge, rendering most roads impassible and leaving nearly two-hundred homes and businesses uninhabitable. Inland, rainfall amounts totaled nearly five inches. Some street flooding was observed in Valparaiso. Throughout the Florida panhandle, Alex caused two-hundred-and-five million in damages, with Santa Rosa Island being the worst affected. Two deaths were reported due to flooding in Navarre Beach; these being the only fatalities to occur during Hurricane Alex. A further twenty people were seriously injured in the hurricane, most centered in Pensacola and Santa Rosa Island.

Tropical Depression Two
On August 2, a decaying cold front coupled with an occluded cyclone moved off the coast of South Carolina. Progressing up the Gulf Stream along the East Coast of the United States, the cyclone slowly detached itself from its frontal boundaries as the production of convection began in the vicinity of the center. By August 4, the cyclone gradually took on tropical characteristics while off the coast of North Carolina. As more deep convection began being produced near the center of circulation, the SMWC initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Two that same day. A strong upper-level anticyclone over New England inhibited progress northward, and the depression stalled for several days while just offshore North Carolina. On August 8, at 22:00 UTC, Two began moving once again as the anticyclone continued eastward. The following day, a convective burst near the center prompted the upgrade of Two's wind speed to 30 knots. Several hours later, Two passed to the east of Massachussets, which reported only fringe effects from the system. At 23:00 UTC, a significant lack of deep convection associated with increasing wind shear imparted a weakening trend, causing the system to degenerate into a remnant low on August 10. Several hours later, the remnant system associated with Two made landfall near Halifax, Nova Scotia. Heavy rainfall triggered minor flooding throughout Halifax, with the effects of the system resulting in some road closures. The remnants of the system further dissipated over the Gulf of St. Lawrence the next day.

Hurricane Bonnie
On August 4, the SMWC began monitoring a surface area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave just northwest of Cape Verde. The wave rapidly consolidated, attaining all the characteristics of a tropical cyclone the same day. At the 00:00 UTC advisory, the wave was found to have sustained tropical storm-force winds. However, SMWC recon flights failed to identify a lower-level closed circulation, preventing classification as a tropical storm. Over the next several days, the system, dubbed Invest 92L, tracked across the central tropical Atlantic without undergoing much change in strength or organization. On August 9, a special advisory was initiated at 04:00 UTC after reconnaissance aircraft found a LLCC within the center of the storm, thus resulting in the classification of Tropical Storm Bonnie while situated 164 miles east of the Leeward Islands. At the 14:00 UTC advisory the same day, it was found that a clear convective core existed in the center of circulation, with an ASCAT pass revealing the presence of three 55-knot vectors within the cyclone. This prompted an upgrade to 55 knots at the advisory. Over the next several days, a ridge of high pressure centered over the eastern Caribbean further stalled Bonnie just east of the Leeward Islands. Maintaining strength, the cyclone began intensifying once again on August 13, with a recon flight reporting 1-minute sustained winds of 65 knots, thus, upgrading Bonnie to a Category 1 hurricane. Prompting the issuance of a special advisory at 17:00 UTC, Bonnie began moving over the Leeward Islands just hours later. Approximately 20:00 UTC, Bonnie made landfall over the island of Antigua as a Category 1 hurricane with 65 kt winds.

Current Storm Information
The center of Hurricane Bonnie is situated over Montserrat, with the majority of the Leeward Islands currently experiencing hurricane conditions. Multiple Hurricane Warnings have been hoisted for the majority of the Leeward Islands, especially for those in direct line with the storm's forecasted path westward. Currently under a Tropical Storm Warning are the islands of St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, St. Croix, St. Knitts, Saba, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, and Barbuda. A Hurricane Warning encompasses the same area to a lesser extent, including St. Knitts, Nevis, and Montserrat. A new Hurricane Warning also extends northwest towards the islands of St. Croix and Saba, in addition to the island of Guadeloupe to the south. However, the Hurricane Warning for Antigua and Barbuda has been discontinued and replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning. Maximum sustained winds of one minute are 65 knots, with higher gusts. Recon data indicate some gusts of 90 knots. The pressure is 989 millibars and the system is moving to the west-southwest at 3 miles per hour. Tropical storm-force winds extend outwards up to 94 miles from the center of Bonnie, with the most intense bands in the North and East quadrants. Hurricane-force winds extend outwards up to 55 miles from the center.

For further information, please see:


 * The SMWC's latest Public Advisory on Bonnie (see above)

Storm Names
The following list of names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2016. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2017. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2022 season. This is the same list used in the 2010 season, with the exception of Ian and Tobias, which replaced Igor and Tomas, respectively.