User blog:Hurricane Layten/Tropical cyclone concerns increasing this afternoon

Just to say, the latest runs of the hurricane forecast models and even the latest MJO runs show a big concern for the Atlantic basin over the next few weeks. But first, I think we will begin this discussion with 97-L, which will no doubt become a major hurricane over the next few days as it moves westwards.

Investigational area 97-L is set to become a huge concern, with nearly all the reliable models taking it to category 3 or 4 intensity within the next 6 days or so, making landfall somewhere in the Greater Antilles in the process. The GFS in particular has been very consistent over the last 24 hours or so, taking the system into Haiti as a powerful hurricane, before heading for the Bahamas and making another major landfall in North Carolina by the end of the run as a category 3 or 4 again. On the other hand, the ECMWF models show a huge spread, with some taking it into the Bay of Campeche, whilst some others take it into the Atlantic over the Bahamas late into the forecast period. However, all of the European runs appear to agree that Matthew will track into southern Cuba as a category 4 hurricane. I think the biggest concern is in the Bahamas, where the storm is shown in the middle of the country with a 930 mbar pressure, which is generally viewed as top category 4 intensity. We’ll just have to see what happens though with the trough, as this will affect the track, and therefore the outcome of Matthew as a hurricane.

A reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating into the fact of whether a closed low level circulation currently exists within this disturbance. As winds are already 45 mph, I wouldn’t be surprised if we have Tropical Storm Matthew by 1600 today. Matthew is going to be tracking into areas of tropical cyclone heat potential that are in excess of 120 kj per cm3 of air, so there is one thing that is certain – Matthew is going to undergo rapid intensification before it makes landfall later in the week. As I have repeatedly said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Matthew became a category 5 hurricane whilst in the Caribbean Sea.

Even more concern is raised when the best analogies for the current situation with Matthew are Hurricane Ivan, which devastated numerous countries, and Hurricane Hazel, which took a track very similar than that predicted for Matthew. Matthew is going to be a bad storm wherever it ends up going whilst active, and I expect the name will be retired after the season has finished.

Next up is Ulika, which rapidly became a hurricane this morning. As I said earlier, I wouldn’t be surprised if it was to become a category 2 at least before weakening due to cooler seas and increasingly hostile upper level conditions. No threats are posed to land, however the small nature of this system does allow it to be able to rapidly intensify, so there will be some more ACE points on this system before it finally dies out.

Also drifting around the east Pacific is Tropical Storm Roslyn, which I believe will become a remnant low this afternoon as it moves over 24C waters in a high shear environment. There are no threats to land form this storm.

Next, the rapidly developing Tropical Storm Chaba in the west Pacific, which developed overnight. I expect this system will become a powerful typhoon before it adds to the number of systems that have hit Taiwan and eastern China this season. All interests must keep a close eye on this system, as circumstances change quickly, and the intensity will depend on where the storm goes.

The remains of Typhoon Megi, which hit Taiwan as a category 4 yesterday morning are currently down to 65 mph. I expect the system will become extratropical overnight. The main concern now with Megi and its remnants will be life threatening rainfall and winds, which should diminish by Friday afternoon at the latest.

Finally, the latest run of the MJO models. All of the reliable models show that there will be a significant period of time that favours the MDR in the Atlantic. Put simply, all hell is going to break loose in the Atlantic in the coming weeks, and I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if we can see as many as 5 more systems develop from this year’s hurricane season before it is all said and done. One more thing of enormous concern to consider – the sea surface temperatures across the entire basin are at record high levels, and so this increases the chance of a devastating hurricane being able to develop during the MJO phase. Keep a close eye out for any sudden developments over the coming few weeks, and keep well prepared if yo