Hurricane Earl (Jack's Prediction, 2016)

Hurricane Eark was a tropical cyclone that moved westward through the Caribbean Sea. The fifth named storm of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, Earl formed on August 2 to the southwest of Jamaica. It previously passed south of the island and Hispaniola as a tropical wave.

Meteorological History
On July 28, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) first began monitoring a tropical wave about 1,700 mi (2,735 km) east-southeast of the Leeward Islands. Moving quickly westward, the system was expected to encounter more favorable conditions for development within three days. The rapid motion prevented initial development, resulting in poor organization of the associated convection. The thunderstorms increased on July 30 as the wave began moving through the Lesser Antilles, assisted by above-normal water temperatures and light wind shear. Despite more convective organization and the presence of strong winds, the lack of a surface circulation prevented the system from being classified as a tropical cyclone. On July 31, the wave entered the Caribbean Sea while continuing its fast forward motion. While passing south of the Dominican Republic on August 1, the system became much better organized, producing tropical storm-force winds in its northern periphery. The fast forward motion allowed the system to develop despite an increase in upper-level wind shear, although the shear decreased as water temperatures increased along the wave's path. A Hurricane Hunters mission was scheduled to fly into the system on August 1, but it could not investigate due to mechanical problems. Early on August 2, the system passed south of Jamaica, and a Hurricane Hunters flight was able to observe a closed circulation. As a result, the NHC classified the system as Tropical Storm Earl at 16:00 UTC that day, located halfway between Jamaica and the northeast coast of Honduras.

Earl moved northwestward towards the coast of Belize, prompting hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings for the Yucatan, Belize, Honduras, and the Caribbean coast of Guatemala. Warm SSTs allowed Earl to quickly intensify, and made landfall in Dangriga, Belize, on August 3, at 1800z, as a 75mph hurricane. Earl brought heavy rains and strong winds, spawning two tornadoes which killed 12 and 23 respectively. Earl moved across the Yucatan and weakened due to land interaction. Earl reemerged as a tropical depression over the western Caribbean.

Over water, Earl re-intensified into a tropical storm and made landfall in Poza Rica, Mexico, causing heavy flooding and landslides. The system dissipated over the mountains of central Mexico.