2016 Atlantic hurricane season (Predictions - Sassmaster15)

The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season was an above-average hurricane season that resulted in the formation of nineteen named storms, ten hurricanes, and six major hurricanes; a near record high of named storms, only surpassed by the 2004 and 2005 seasons, and tying with 2010, 2011, and 2012 for the highest amount of named storms in a single season. Due to the transition from an El Niño to a Moderate La Niña, activity was at its highest since 2012. The season ran mainly year-round, with the formation of Hurricane Alex on January 13 and the dissipation of Hurricane Tobias in late December, with the season officially starting June 1 and ending November 30.

The season featured the highest number of hurricanes in the Atlantic since 2012, with a total of ten hurricanes, six of which became major hurricanes, an amount not seen since 2004. The season started exceptionally early, with the formation of Hurricane Alex on January 13, having become the first January hurricane since Hurricane One of 1938. Another highlight of 2016 was that the first Category 5 hurricane was seen in the Atlantic basin since Felix of 2007, Hermine, which peaked at 175 MPH, 893 mbar. Hermine, after making two separate landfalls, would eventually become the third costliest hurricane in Atlantic history, as well as the third most intense hurricane in the Atlantic, only to be surpassed by Hurricane Karl weeks later.

Hurricane Karl was the second Category 5 hurricane to occur during the season, eventually peaking at 180 MPH, 891 mbar, becoming one of the most intense hurricanes to occur in the Atlantic. Karl also made landfall in Nicaragua at peak intensity, resulting in massive devastation, becoming the third costliest hurricane in Atlantic history, having knocked Hermine out of her spot.

A large portion of the storms caused significant damage, with the first storm (Nicole) making landfall in the U.S. at major hurricane intensity since Wilma of 2005. In addition, several other major and non-major hurricanes all made landfall in places around the Atlantic at or near peak intensity, causing significant damage. In late December, the most intense post-season tropical cyclone developed; Hurricane Tobias, making landfall in Florida on December 25 (the celebration of Christmas) at Category 3 intensity, causing a high amount of power outages across the eastern United States.

With more than half of the storms making landfall in different parts of the Atlantic whilst tropical, 2016 became the second costliest Atlantic hurricane season on record, only behind 2005. Only four storms, Tropical Storm Danielle, Hurricane Earl, Tropical Storm Gaston, and Hurricane Paula, did not have any major direct effects on land while tropical.

January & February
On January 13, an extratropical low pushing east across the Northern Atlantic developed into what became known as Hurricane Alex, the first hurricane in January since Hurricane One of 1938; the first named January storm since Alice in 1955. The precursor to the system brought 60 MPH winds and heavy rainfall to Bermuda, and then took on tropical characteristics on January 13, nearing the Azores. Alex, after causing minimal damages in the Azores, shifted WNW as it turned extratropical, dissipating two days later on January 15.

February remained a quiet month, as no other systems or invests developed during the course of the month.

May & June
Tropical Storm Bonnie developed on May 22, after a very quiet period with no activity during the months of February, March, or April. Bonnie first developed near the Virgin Islands before making a complete loop in the Central Gulf, peaking at 50 MPH, prior to making landfall in Cedar Key, Florida, causing minimal damage with moderate winds and steady rain, eventually leading to moderate coastal flooding in the area, dissipating soon after, with the extratropical remnants of Bonnie making landfall in Nova Scotia, where further damage from the storm would occur. June proved to be an active month, as three named storms formed during the month, of which two reached hurricane status. Hurricane Colin was the first of the June storms, becoming a hurricane a day after formation on June 12, eventually peaking at 80 MPH, south of Bermuda, before shifting ENE, skirting the island with rain showers prior to becoming extratropical, with the storm's remnants making landfall in Ireland, having caused very minimal damage and resulting in no casualties. Tropical Storm Danielle was the fourth named storm of the season, developing near the Bahamas and traveling along the coast of the Eastern United States prior to turning extratropical near Iceland. Hurricane Earl was the first major hurricane of the season, developing Northeast of Turks and Caicos and making several loops in the western portion of the Northern Atlantic, skimming Bermuda but never making landfall there. Earl also produced indirect effects on the U.S., when large swells from the storm reportedly overturned several boats, resulting in the deaths of several people. Earl began to shift ENE near Bermuda as it continued to intensify into a major hurricane, the first of the season, going on to cause damage in the Azores, and in the UK and even Russia while extratropical. The end of June concluded with the dissipation of Subtropical Depression Six, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico, later caused rain showers in Florida before entering the Northern Atlantic and being absorbed by a frontal system only a day later.

July & August
July was slightly less active than the previous month, with only two named storms forming: Fiona, a classic Cape Verde major hurricane that peaked at Category 4 intensity, followed by Gaston, a short-lived tropical storm that formed near Puerto Rico and traveled just east of the Eastern United States. Hurricane Fiona developed from a Cape Verde tropical wave on July 11 and began to explosively intensify as it traveled west over the Central Atlantic. Fiona peaked at 145 MPH near Turks and Caicos, making a near-direct hit there, causing massive devastation, prior to turning North and hitting Bermuda as a high-end Category 2 hurricane. Fiona then turned extratropical, remaining at C1 strength and then made a direct landfall on Nova Scotia, dissipating entirely as it was absorbed by a frontal system over Prince Edward Island. Tropical Storm Gaston developed north of Puerto Rico from a band of storms along a frontal system when a core of low pressure began to develop. The system developed subtropical, but eventually became tropical as it passed just east of the United States, causing minor issues with rough surf and coastal flooding. Gaston eventually followed Fiona's track into Nova Scotia where it made landfall as an extratropical cyclone on July 30.

August was one of the most active months of the season, ahead of June and September due to the amount of storms forming during the month. Hurricane Hermine was the first Category 5 hurricane to occur in the Atlantic since Felix in 2007. The storm developed from a well-defined tropical wave over the Central Atlantic, and continued to travel Northwest for the majority of its life, staying out to sea. However, Hermine peaked near Bermuda at 175 MPH, causing extensive damage with high waves and storm surge. Hermine then looped to the northeast of Bermuda and turned southwest, once again making an indirect hit on the island. Hermine then made landfall in North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane, causing widespread wind damage as far inland as Raleigh. Hermine then turned extratropical near New York and eventually pushed inland, the storm's remnants dissipating over Lake Erie. Hermine is the third costliest hurricane to occur in the Atlantic, pushing Ike of 2008 down to number 4, sitting only behind Hurricanes Katrina of 2005 and Sandy of 2012, having resulted in over $53 billion in damages, the majority of it in Bermuda and North Carolina. Hermine was also directly responsible for over 162 deaths. In addition, Hermine is also responsible for a super outbreak of tornadoes that occurred on August 16-17, during a period in which 98 tornadoes formed from North Carolina to Quebec and caused major damage across the Great Lakes Region and East Coast of the United States. While the majority of the tornadoes were weak, several twisters, including a powerful EF3 in Pennsylvania (the strongest of the outbreak), caused massive devastation.

Hurricane Ian developed just days after Hermine on August 12, 435 miles southeast of the Leeward Islands from an initially poorly-defined tropical wave. However, the wave gradually intensified into a depression due to low wind shear, which normally inhibits tropical development over water. Ian eventually hit the Leeward Islands on August 13 as a tropical storm, though damage was minimal. Ian peaked as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 MPH winds prior to making landfall in Quintana Roo as a weakening Category 1 hurricane, causing over $145 million in damages. Ian then turned extratropical before experiencing a short rebirth of strength as a tropical system over the Gulf before dissipating completely near Louisiana. Tropical Storm Julia developed north of Puerto Rico and then continued to travel WNW as a strong tropical storm, causing significant damage in Turks and Caicos, hampering re-building efforts from Hurricane Fiona earlier the previous month. Julia also hit the lower Bahamas, where the storm caused significant flooding; the worst to occur there in Atlantic history. Julia remained tropical as it made landfall in Miami, Florida, causing minimal damage prior to regaining strength over the Gulf of Mexico as a subtropical system, causing considerable damage in the Florida panhandle. Hurricane Karl was the second Category 5 hurricane of the season, and is one of the strongest hurricanes to occur in the Atlantic, behind Wilma of 2005 and Gilbert of 1988, with a record low pressure of 891 mbar. Karl is also tied with Rita of 2005 and Mitch of 1998 for having the most intense wind speeds, with maximum winds estimated to be 180 MPH. Karl developed from a late-stage tropical wave that produced showers over the Leeward Islands, eventually strengthening to Category 5 over the Caribbean, and making landfall at that intensity in Nicaragua, causing massive devastation, knocking Hermine out of third place for being one of the most costliest hurricanes in the Atlantic, with damages estimated to be $59 billion. In addition, Karl's winds and heavy rainfall resulted in enormous mudslides that caused over 2,000 fatalities in Nicaragua and Honduras, making the storm the most significant in terms of deaths. Karl also had effects on Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Quintana Roo, the ABC Islands, and Venezuela while over the Caribbean. Tropical Storm Lisa developed on August 21 near Jamaica. Lisa narrowly avoided being absorbed by Hurricane Karl as it passed to the storm's south, however, Lisa continued to push NW into Cuba, causing minimal damage prior to emerging over the Gulf, where Lisa attained a peak intensity of 50 MPH prior to making landfall in New Orleans, where damage was mainly minimal. The precursor to Tropical Depression Fourteen had effects on the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos, mainly flooding attributed to heavy rainfall, in addition to scattered power outages and tree damage due to gusty winds.

September & October
September got off to an early start to an increasingly active season with the formation of Tropical Storm Matthew on September 4. Matthew developed in the Gulf of Mexico and continued to travel Northeast, eventually making landfall in Tampa, Florida on September 6 shortly after reaching peak intensity. Effects were mainly minimal.  Hurricane Nicole was an intense Category 4 hurricane that formed to the east of the Bahamas and began pushing west, making numerous landfalls. Damage was mainly minimal in the Bahamas, where Nicole made landfall as a weak tropical storm, followed by a short burst of the strengthening while it made landfall in Florida as a Category 1. Nicole then emerged over the Gulf of Mexico, having not weakened, but continued to strengthen over the Gulf, eventually peaking at 150 MPH, 939 mbar, followed by a turn north, thus resulting in a direct landfall in Lousiana at Category 3 intensity, having become the first hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. as a major storm since Wilma in 2005, thus resulting in massive damage. Nicole resulted in $24.3 billion in damages, making it the 7th costliest Atlantic hurricane on record, behind Andrew of 1992, which was lowered to 6th due to Hurricanes Karl and Hermine taking 3rd and 4th places, respectively. Tropical Storm Otto developed from an initially weak tropical wave that began tracking northeast, strengthening to a depression over the Cayman Islands, causing slight damage. Emerging over the Gulf, the system then took on an enormous size, entering a Fujiwhara with Hurricane Nicole but quickly removing itself from that, having lost a quarter of its circulation to Nicole. Otto them made landfall in Central Florida, absorbing the remnants of a weaker tropical system, causing heavy damage with high winds and torrential rainfall. Hurricane Paula, a low-end Category 1 hurricane, did not impact land while tropical. Paula developed over the Northern Atlantic and remained at sea for the majority of its life, however, Paula did impact the Azores as an extratropical system, making 2016 the first season in which three storms ever impacted the Azores during a single season. Paula's effects were mainly minimal.

October started with the dissipation of Hurricane Paula on October 1. Subtropical Storm Richard later developed on October 6 far east of the Leeward Islands. Richard persisted for several days prior to making landfall in the Virgin Islands as a weakened subtropical depression, followed by a secondary landfall in Puerto Rico. Richard's remnants would later go on to cause moderate damage in southern Florida, as well as directly impacting the Florida Keys.

November & December
On November 11, Tropical Storm Shary, a strong tropical storm, developed 75 miles due west of the Lesser Antilles in the Caribbean. Shary never directly impacted land while tropical, but staying north of Venezuela and the ABC Islands, Shary produced high waves and rip currents along the shores of these places, having resulted in several injuries as well as 149 rescues performed on people pulled out to sea by rough surf. Shary dissipated on November 17 north of Aruba, having caused minimal damage and minor flooding there, attributed to heavy rain produced by Shary's outer bands.

In early December, a late season Cape Verde tropical wave began to cross the Central Atlantic, battering heavy wind shear and cool waters, fluctuating between tropical storm and tropical depression status for several days. This storm, better known as Hurricane Tobias, was the final hurricane of the season and the most intense off-season tropical cyclone to date, having peaked as a 125 MPH Category 3 major hurricane. Tobias intensified in the favorable Caribbean Sea, becoming a Category 3 just west of the Florida Keys only a day before Christmas. Tobias made landfall in the Florida panhandle on Christmas Day (December 25) at Category 3 intensity, causing hundreds of thousands of electrical blackouts on that day. Because the storm "ruined Christmas" for many, it was nicknamed "Hurricane Grinch" and "Hurricane Scrooge", amongst many other things. Tobias became the 10th costliest Atlantic hurricane on record, having caused $15.8 billion in damages, only behind Ivan of 2004. Hurricane Tobias dissipated on December 27, having put an end to a very active season.

Hurricane Alex
Main Article: Hurricane Alex (2016)

On January 7, the National Hurricane Center noted the potential for an extratropical low about 425 mi (685 km) west-southwest of Bermuda to gain subtropical or tropical characteristics over subsequent days, as it tracked across the central Atlantic. Convection began to coalesce near the center of the low on January 13, leading to the formation of Subtropical Storm Alex about 785 miles (1,260 km) south-southwest of the Azores, at 21:00 UTC. Alex is the first tropical or subtropical storm to form in January since 1978, and only the fourth known tropical or subtropical cyclone formation during the month on record. When Alex became a hurricane at 15:00 UTC on January 14, it marked only the second recorded hurricane formation in January, with the other being Hurricane One in 1938. On January 15, the NHC issued its last advisory on Hurricane Alex, as the system transitioned back into an extratropical cyclone. On January 17, Alex was absorbed by another extratropical cyclone, in the southern Labrador Sea.

Taken from Wikipedia

Tropical Storm Bonnie
On May 22, an area of intensifying low-pressure associated with powerful thunderstorms began to track west, just north of Puerto Rico, as it began developing circulation. Within hours, this new system became Tropical Depression Two. Two was responsible for heavy rainfall in Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, with Santo Domingo reporting an estimated 9.34 inches of rain fell in the city as the storm passed to the north, resulting in sporadic flooding as the core of the storm remained to the north. The heavy rain was also responsible for widespread power outages as powerful torrents began to severely affect power grids in several locations. Two remained a depression as it shifted northwest, producing heavy rainfall and at least three weak tornadoes over the Inagua Islands. Two also had effects on southern Florida as well as Cuba, with reports of flash flooding attributed to torrential rain - much of it caused by humidity and high levels of moisture in the Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Mexico. On May 23, Two hit Key West, Florida, causing damage with gusty winds reaching 35 MPH; gusts as high as 60 MPH. A burst of convection in Two's core resulted in a further pressure drop to 993 mbar just as it made landfall. Minor coastal flooding was reported along the Florida Keys as Two caused a four-foot storm surge, resulting in the closure of many south Floridan beaches. Two also caused a possible EF1 tornado in Marathon, Florida when several homes were found to have severe roof damage, and heavy tree damage abounded. Two then fully entered the Gulf; undergoing powerful bursts of convection in the core as circulation continued to improve substantially. On May 24, Two had intensified to 40 MPH offshore from Biloxi, officially becoming Tropical Storm Bonnie.

Soon after intensifying, Bonnie began to shift southwest, making a full loop in the Gulf as it began to track Northeast, towards Florida. Bonnie continued to intensify as small bursts of convection resulted in the repeated development of thunderstorms within the storm's center, as well as a three millibar drop in pressure from 991 mbar to 989 mbar. Within hours, Bonnie's circulation tightened to the point where the storm became relatively small, but very strong - 50 MPH, 989 mbar. As Bonnie approached Cedar Key, Florida, swells from the storm reached only three feet, but managed to disrupt boating activities, as well as resulting in beach closures from Panama City to Sarasota. On May 25, Bonnie made landfall in Cedar Key with 50 MPH winds, causing extensive damage. Power outages extended from Cedar Key to Tampa due to strong winds snapping electrical wires and/or trees on power lines, affecting tens of thousands of customers. Due to increased speed in the storm's movement, rainfall was relatively light; highest rainfall totaled 8.75 inches in Cedar Key. Bonnie was also responsible for multiple tornadoes during its landfall - most of which caused severe damage across central Florida. Bonnie began to turn extratropical soon after exiting Florida and began tracking northeast along the eastern United States, continuing to cause inclement weather in the Carolinas, Virginia, and New England. North Carolina reported seven inches of rainfall and gusts exceeding 80 MPH during Extratropical Storm Bonnie. Powerful squall squall lines from Bonnie produced tornadoes and heavy rainfall in eastern Virginia. Bonnie then re-entered the North Atlantic after shifting northeast, on track to hit Nova Scotia. On May 27, Bonnie made landfall as a strong extratropical system packing 45 MPH winds, with a direct hit on Yarmouth. Bonnie also brought a five-foot storm surge with heavy rain, resulting sporadic flooding across the coast, as well as low-basin areas inland. Damage from the system was considerable - widespread power outages due to downed wires, as well as reports of inundated homes due to flooding. Multiple trees were reported to be snapped or uprooted due to high winds, resulting in the isolation of many communities. In total, Bonnie caused over $122 million in damages, with six confirmed deaths in Florida. Damage from Bonnie was overall worse than expected. Overall, Bonnie was a rather strong system that had powerful effects, even when extratropical.

Hurricane Colin
On June 11, the NHC identified a strengthening tropical wave 318 miles northeast of the Bahamas. Moving westward at a slow pace of three miles per hour, the wave gradually intensified, reaching tropical depression status hours later when the system was identified to have 30 MPH winds in a warming core. Within another hour, bursts of convection from the rapidly deepening core allowed for the storm to improve in organization, becoming Tropical Storm Colin with 50 MPH winds. Colin continued to push Northwest across the North Atlantic, coming in close contact with the United States but never making landfall there, having caused high waves and rough surf along the shores of the Carolinas, reportedly flooding several beaches and causing severe damage to boats. Several mooring buoys were affected by the waves and snapped, causing hundreds of boats to come free and float around prior to slamming into other boats. Colin briefly skirted the eastern United States before shifting into a hard northeast turn after a rapid decrease in pressure and a turbulent jet changed steering currents. Colin was sent back to the North Atlantic, where Colin's cloud patterns continued to improve as moisture continued to feed the system, resulting in its upgrade to Category 1 hurricane on June 13.

Colin continued to push northeast as the storm passed to the south of Bermuda, but the outer eye-wall still indirectly impacted the island with tropical-storm force winds and steady rainfall. Rough surf from Colin caused minor coastal flooding and inhibited boating conditions due to high waves and winds, as well as blinding rainfall. Overall, Colin's impacts were minimal, but were evaluated to be much worse had the storm made a direct hit on the island. Colin continued northeast, where a patch of unseasonably warm water allowed for even further intensification to take place; where Colin attained its peak intensity of 80 MPH, 983 mbar. The storm eventually transitioned into cooler waters on June 14, becoming extratropical near Iceland. Later that day, Collin's remnants made landfall there as a weak extratropical system, with a record low rainfall of only 1.58 inches total. Damages from Colin were mainly minimal, and the storm was not directly responsible for any fatalities.

Tropical Storm Danielle
The remnants of the tropical wave that spawned Hurricane Colin (see above) began to collectively organized and draw moisture from the sea near the Bahamas, resulting in the formation of several powerful thunderstorms. The intensifying system continue to grow in the strength and size while an area of low pressure developed in a warming core, with the system then exuding gusts of 50+ MPH on the Bahamas. On June 13, this rapidly-intensifying system took on a cyclonic form while thunderstorm cells began converging, resulting in a sustained wind speed of 30 MPH, resulting in its upgrade to Tropical Depression Four. Four continued to travel NNE, along the coast of the United States, intensifying to 40 MPH hours later, becoming Tropical Storm Danielle. Danielle's outer bands reportedly had effects on North Carolina, bringing moderate breezes and steady rainfall, with the highest amounts totaling 11.34 inches. Danielle continued to track along the East Coast of the United States, resulting in heavy rains and flooding from Virginia to New York, despite never making a direct hit on the U.S. Shortly after making an indirect hit on New York City, Danielle began to turn northeast into a pocket of cooler waters, where the storm's structure began to rapidly disorganize as it turned extratropical on June 15, later making landfall in Nova Scotia, just weeks after Bonnie's remnants hit. Danielle wasn't nearly as devastating as Bonnie, having caused only $4.7 million in damages, with little reports of structural or flooding damages as a result of the storm. Damages from Danielle primarily existed in the form of uprooted and heavily de-foilaged trees as a result of high winds. Fortunately, no deaths exacted from Danielle, who's remnants later dissipated the next day over Newfoundland.

Hurricane Earl
On June 18, an upper-level low merged with an extratropical system northeast of Turks and Caicos and soon became well-organized enough to undergo developing closed circulation. As the system's rain bands continued to form, sustained winds near 35 MPH were identified in the core, thus resulting in an upgrade to Subtropical Depression Five. The next day, as Five continued to travel WNW, it shed its tropical characteristics and was upgraded to fully tropical when stable closed circulation was identified in the system. Hours later, Five continued to rapidly intensify as pressure in storm's core continued to sink. Wind speeds inexplicably jumped to 50 MPH, resulting in a further upgrade to Tropical Storm Earl as it neared the United States; rough surf resulting in hundreds of rescues of swimmers near Hilton Head, though no drownings were reported. Soon after, a change in steering currents resulted in Earl being turned northeast, where it once again underwent rapid intensification. At 2230UTC June 19, Earl began to develop an eye and more complex storm bands as bursts of convection in the core further assisted in more intense development. Only minutes later, Earl acquired hurricane-force winds of 75 MPH. The next day, Earl passed to the south of Bermuda, causing problems there with tropical-storm force winds and rip currents. Damage was mainly light; light flooding and broken tree limbs, though no electrical blackouts or structural damage was reported. Earl continued to travel northeast, remaining at an annular intensity of 90 MPH for several days until June 23, when Earl entered a very favorable zone of the Northern Atlantic southwest of the Azores, rapidly undergoing intensification into a Category 2 hurricane, only hours later acquiring a peak intensity of 120 MPH, 964 mbar, becoming the first major hurricane of the season.

On June 23, soon after becoming a major hurricane, Earl shifted NNE, missing a direct hit on the Azores Islands, but still producing torrential rainfall on the São Miguel island, resulting in massive flooding in valleys of low-lying areas, as well as mudslides that decimated hillside villages, as well as stranding hundreds in high-basin areas. Debris on mountain roads inhibited rescues and resulted in the closure of several important pathways among towns. Heavy rains inundated thousands of homes due to flooding, while high winds topping 60 MPH snapped thousands of trees, isolating many communities whilst causing sporadic power outages. Earl's hit proved to be more devastating than Alex's earlier in the season, even though Earl's was an indirect hit, having caused $245 million in damages and resulting in 37 fatalities. Later that day, Earl then entered a trough of wind shear, which began to rapidly disorganize and severely weaken Earl as it crossed over into cooler waters. By June 24, Earl was a disorganized Category 1 hurricane with a decreasing wind field as the core started to cool. Later that day, Earl began an extratropical transition back to a remnant low with winds of 65 MPH. The next day, Earl turned northeast once again, making landfall in Cork, Ireland with the force of a post-tropical system packing very heavy winds. Earl caused severe damage, with several homes reporting damaged or lost roofs due to powerful gusts. Hundreds of thousands of trees were uprooted or felled across the UK due to high winds. Over 100+ more houses were damaged when trees collapsed on them. In addition, over a thousand coastal properties reported flooding due to a seven-foot storm surge that came ashore on southwestern Ireland, resulting in beach erosion and coastal flooding, while strong waves sunk boats and destroyed piers all across western Ireland. By June 27, Earl's remnants had finally dissipated over western Russia, having caused $32 million in damages as a post-tropical system whilst over Europe, also resulting in three fatalities.

Subtropical Depression Six
On June 29, an area of low-pressure associated with a frontal system crossing the Central Atlantic began to merge around a steadily deepening core. The system continued to push west, when at 2000UTC, the system was identified to have wind speeds of 30 MPH while still retaining subtropical characteristics as its cloud pattern began to improve. At 0130UTC the next day, June 30, Subtropical Depression Six hit Turks and Caicos as it underwent its weakening phase due to drier air over and around the islands. Hours later, Six continued to push west, causing rain showers over much of southern Florida, with nearly twelve inches of rain falling, especially in Miami, resulting in severe flash flooding and hectic driving conditions when associated with gusty winds in excess of 30 MPH. Six retained its structure and strength while over Florida, emerging over the Gulf of Mexico where it began to absorb more moisture, steadily improving its cloud pattern as thunderstorms began to converge in the core once again, hitting a secondary peak intensity. Six then shifted northeast, making landfall in Florida once again, making this the first time a tropical system had ever made two separate landfalls in the same state within a single day. Six then emerged over the Northern Atlantic as it began to lose convection in its core, despite very favorable conditions for further intensification. A day later, a frontal system absorbed the remnants of Six, thus resulting in its dissipation. Six caused no major damage in Florida or the Bahamas, and no deaths resulted from the system, so its impacts were classified as minimal, despite heavy flooding in the Everglades.

Hurricane Fiona
On July 11, a Cape Verde tropical wave became increasingly well-defined as the system took on a cyclonic shape near a rapidly-deepening core of low-pressure. The area of showers and thunderstorms began to intensify due to record-warm waters and a sudden decrease in wind shear as the wave became Tropical Depression Seven. Seven continued to explosively intensify as it crossed the Central Atlantic, attaining Category 1 status on July 14, roughly 670 miles east of the Lesser Antilles as the storm's organization continued to improve substantially due to Fiona entering an environment of decreasing wind shear. The next day, Fiona began to shift northwest as the size of the storm largely increased as it took on annular characteristics. Fiona's intensification continued to rapidly intensify while off-shore of the Leeward Islands, acquiring major hurricane intensity on July 16 when an NHC recon flight found winds of 115 MPH in Fiona's inner eye-wall as bursts of convection continued to strengthen the storm. Fiona largely had indirect impacts on the Leeward Islands as well as the Greater Antilles; large swells presented danger to swimmers and boaters alike; as large waves resulted in the disappearance of several small boats near Antigua and Barbuda, while most harbors and beaches remained closed while the hurricane passed to the east. On July 17, Fiona's core passed 70 miles northeast of the British Virgin Islands just as the storm intensified to Category 4 as it continued to draw in moisture due to warm waters and decreasing wind shear. Fiona had affected the Virgin Islands indirectly, with tropical-storm force winds encompassing an area stretching to San Juan, Puerto Rico, causing severe damage. Heavy rainfall resulted in flash flooding in The Settlement, the city most affected by Fiona. Winds exceeding 80 MPH in strength ripped roof shingles and shutters off homes, while downing thousands of trees and power lines. Blinding rainfall crippled driving conditions on every island, while strong waves destroyed harbors and washed out a plethora of roads, some to the point of being impassible. While the strongest winds remained to the NNE, damage was considered to be devastating; the worst since Erika the previous year.

Fiona remained well-organized as it turned WNW, acquiring its peak intensity of 145 MPH, 935 mbar 12 miles east of Turks and Caicos, which received a much harsher hit from Fiona then the British Virgin Islands, as devastation from the storm was catastrophic, with 130 MPH winds reported in Cockburn Town from an instrument later destroyed by the storm. A twelve-foot storm surge inundated hundreds of homes in Cockburn Town and Balfour Town, as well as washing away roads and up to thirty miles of beach and coastal zones. High winds battered the islands for an entire day, downing thousands of trees and power lines, resulting in a near-total blackout across the islands, making communication impossible. In addition, significant structural damage was reported, with a sizable amount of hotels, restaurants, and businesses reporting roofs blown off, shattered windows, or collapsed walls. Fifteen percent of the islands' housing developments were completely destroyed. In addition, devastating flooding caused major damage to Beaches Turks & Caicos, a top-rated hotel on the island of Providenciales. Fiona also indirectly impacted the Bahamas, with very strong swells killing a majority of sea life; Atlantis Resorts and Waterparks on Paradise Island reported 200 dead dolphins washed up ashore their beaches during the storm. In addition, heavy rainfall caused flooding, and was responsible for the collapse of the roof of the Royal Towers Hotel at Atlantis. Overall, nearly fourteen inches of rain fell during Fiona's passage. Also, 60 MPH winds were responsible for several downed trees across the Bahamas, as well as resulting in scattered power outages, most heavily concentrated in Nassau. Florida was also affected by Fiona; the storm's widespread outer bands dropped six inches of rain over the southeastern end of the state, with rip currents affecting the Florida Keys, resulting in a multitude of rescues of people caught in high tides, though no deaths in Florida were reported.

Fiona continued to track on a near-north path, beginning to track northeast as Fiona pushed away from land. Fiona's impacts on the United States were indirect, but tremendous. Rip currents affected the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina; lifeguards performed over 150 rescues on swimmers pulled out to sea on one day alone, July 19. In addition, rough surf severely affected boating conditions, as several small boats capsized due to high waves, while many larger craft found it hard to traverse the high tides. Coastal flooding was reported as far north as Virginia, while several harbors remained closed as Fiona passed nearby. On July 20, Fiona underwent an eyewall-replacement cycle as convection began to slow in the core while moisture became less abundant. Hours later, Fiona degenerated to a 100 MPH Category 2 hurricane, still traveling northeast, while forecast to make a direct hit on Bermuda early the next day. At 1415UTC, July 21, Fiona made landfall in Hog Bay, Bermuda as a rapidly-weakening Category 2 hurricane, still causing significant damage. Fiona's storm surge topped eight feet in height and came directly ashore the islands, flooding nearly 0.25 miles inland overtaking entire beaches, resulting in their closure for up to two weeks after Fiona's departure. Exceptionally high winds exceeding 100 MPH resulted in electrical outages across the island, and uprooted thousands of trees, isolating several towns. In Hamilton, gusts as high as 115 MPH were reported, resulting in the roofs being torn off several buildings, while frame houses reportedly had entire walls be blown down. After passing through Bermuda, Fiona continued to weaken while shifting NNW, completing an extratropical transition on July 23, though a stable core kept the storm at Category 1 strength, with winds maxing at 80 MPH. The next day, Extratropical Storm Fiona made landfall in Halifax, Nova Scotia, making 2016 the first season in which three storms directly impacted Nova Scotia. As an extratropical system with 80 MPH sustained winds, Fiona caused extensive damage; uprooting hundreds of trees and damaging electrical lines, causing widespread power outages. Several homes were also affected by damaging winds; more than 1,000 homes in Halifax were stripped of their roofs. Several hours later, Fiona continued to degenerate into a remnant low prior to being absorbed by a frontal system over Prince Edward Island. In total, Fiona caused $769 million in damages and resulted in a total of 36 fatalities, most of which were in Turks and Caicos.

Tropical Storm Gaston
On July 27, a frontal system associated with a broadband area of low pressure became well organized enough to be classified as Subtropical Depression Eight, when the system was found to have a warm core of low pressure, as well as winds maxing near 30 MPH, with gusts as high as 50 MPH. Eight continued to track northwest as its convective bands began to show signs of organization while the system developed tight circulation. By the next day, July 28, the system's convective processes began to increase, instantly doubling the size of Eight to nearly 700 square miles as it passed to the east of Turks and Caicos, hit extremely hard by Category 4 Hurricane Fiona only days before. Continuing to track NNW, the system later shed its subtropical characteristics as its cloud patterns continued to grow as storm cells continued to converge in the core. At 2350UTC, Eight was found to have wind speeds of 40 MPH in its core while the eyewall continued to grow, resulting in an upgrade to Tropical Storm Gaston. The next day, Gaston briefly attained 45 MPH winds prior to transitioning back to a subtropical system after undergoing a variant of an eye-wall replacement cycle off the coast of North Carolina. Gaston had minor indirect effects on the United States, as waves exceeding four-feet in height presented dangers to swimmers along the East Coast of the United States, as well as damaging boating harbors already destroyed by other storms earlier in the season. On July 30, Gaston had finished weakening while transitioning into an extratropical depression. Later that day, the outer bands of the system hit New York and the rest of New England, causing heavy downpours as a result of large downdrafts and dropping levels of moisture as the remnants of Gaston entered a cooler and much drier environment. Early the next day, Gaston's remnants made landfall in Maine as a large, but fairly weak extratropical storm with light winds and little to no precipitation due to increasingly dry air. No damage from Gaston was found, and no fatalities were caused by the storm. Gaston's remnants shifted ENE as the system moved over Nova Scotia, becoming the fourth storm of the season to directly hit the country, however, impacts from Gaston were very light. Only several strong breezes resulted from Gaston, affecting large trees across the country, but causing no other damaged other than isolated power outages. In total, damage from Gaston amounted to $456,700, with no fatalities to report. Gaston's remnants later dissipated over the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

Hurricane Hermine (WIP)
A well-defined tropical wave pushed out of Cape Verde on August 7, having produced light rain showers and sea breezes around the islands. The system continued to push west as the NHC monitored the system for tropical development, as record-warm waters of 92 degrees Fahrenheit, along with decreasing wind shear allowed for a burst of convection in the system's center, further decreasing the storm's pressure.

Hurricane Ian
On August 12, an initially poorly-developed tropical wave began to develop cyclonic-type circulation on August 12. Associated with a decreasing area of low-pressure, the wave became Tropical Depression Ten later that day southeast of the Leeward Islands. Within hours, the depression became increasingly organized as the outer bands of the storm tightened. A U.S. navy vessel named Elizabeth Faro III was patrolling near Barbados when the storm hit, of which crew members reported gusty winds and heavy rainfall, but only moderate surf that posed dangers to small boats. Ian then strengthened to 50 MPH as it passed to the west of St. Vincent, where the storm caused only minimal damage. Ian continued to track west as it entered the Caribbean, strengthening under ideal conditions as warm waters fueled moisture inside the core, effectively building powerful storm cells as the eye-wall became increasingly well-defined. On August 14, an NHC recon flight identified a small, ragged eye in the core as the pressure continued to drop. Only minutes later, another powerful burst of convection in Ian's core resulted in its upgrade to Category 1 hurricane when 75 MPH wind speeds were identified in Ian's inner eye-wall. The storm continued to track WNW, indirectly impacting Aruba, and much less severely, Venezuela, with large waves and rip currents responsible for drowning several swimmers, as well as capsizing several small rowboats, resulting in a total of eleven fatalities. In addition, large waves stirred up from decreasing pressure and intense winds flooded coastlines from Aruba to Jamaica, eroding up to six miles of beach and coastal property total. Just northeast of Honduras, Ian's structure continued to improve, becoming a 100 MPH Category 2 hurricane the next day, August 15. Hours later, Ian peaked at 105 MPH before rapidly weakening as landfall in the Mexican state of Quintana Roo became apparent.

On August 16, as Ian approached landfall in El Placer, the storm began to weaken as less moisture and drier air abounded, beginning to shed its outer rain bands as the storm's structure fell apart entirely. Max winds were estimated to be 75 MPH as the storm made landfall over a highly unpopulated area, making losses much less significant than compared to what they could have been had the storm made landfall in a city, such as Cancún. Damage was confined mainly to forests and beaches, with powerful gusts downing thousands of trees, as well as sandblasting many shrubs and other native flora. In addition, a seven-foot storm surge inundated up to ten miles of coastline, completely submerging entire beaches underwater. Due to the massive destruction to plants, many herbivores in the area suffered as their numbers started declining due to lack of food. Ian became extratropical shortly thereafter, entering the Gulf of Mexico as an explosively-weakening system that dissipated off the coast of eastern Mexico only two hours later, having failed to regenerate. In total, Ian caused mainly minimal damage, mostly indirect while over water. Flooding was reported far inland in the Yucatán in populated areas as Ian moved inland, washing out many local roads as well as some national roads. In addition, strong winds pummeled trees, downing tens of thousands of them, blocking roadways as well as severely damaging homes and businesses. Overall, Ian caused $238 million in damages, and resulted in thirteen deaths altogether.

Tropical Storm Julia
On August 15, a frontal system collided with a weak low-pressure system over Puerto Rico and slowly began to strengthen as short bursts of convection began to occur in the system's center. A sudden increase in the storm's wind speed to 40 MPH further resulted in the system's upgrade to a tropical storm, thus resulting in its name, Julia. Julia continued on a WNW path, convection bursts in the system continuing to build its structure. On August 16, Julia made landfall over Cockburn Town in Turks and Caicos, which was still recovering from a direct hit by Hurricane Fiona earlier in the season. However, though Julia's max wind speeds were 65 MPH, relatively minor damage occurred, partially because the storm was not nearly as strong as Fiona, and also because the area had not undergone a total-rebuild cycle. However, Julia's circulation had undergone rapid expansion, enveloping the area under severe weather conditions for several hours. Julia had drawn in massive amounts of moisture, which were released in the form of torrential rain. Rain hampered reconstruction projects conducted on housing developments throughout the region; with heavy amounts of water collapsing wooden frames for new houses, as well as softening the ground to the point where some smaller structures, such as maintenance sheds, were reported to have partially sunk into the ground. In addition, surviving buildings from Hurricane Fiona were heavily damaged by Julia, supposedly because Fiona unknowingly compromised their stability when the storm hit. The most devastating part of Julia was when a restaurant supposedly compromised by Fiona's storm surge collapsed with people inside due to torrential rain, killing all occupants inside. In addition, high winds associated with heavy rain caused significant slowdowns and driving accidents on roads; with gusts as high as 90 MPH blowing cars off Lighthouse Road on the north end of Cockburn Town. Finally, powerful gusts collapsed newly-erected structures on construction sites, as well as ripping the roofs off of already-damaged buildings not yet repaired from Fiona. Julia's storm surge remained only four feet in height, but easily spread across many of the islands, causing serious problems and contaminating leftover water supplies and backing up sewer pipelines as they overflowed from heavy rain, as well as inundating homes, while those located at lower elevations were reported to be completely submerged. In areas where power was just restored from Fiona, electrical lines were once again damaged by high winds or affected by flying debris.

Julia weakened slightly as it continued WNW, degenerating back down to 45 MPH as it hit the Bahamas, causing problems mainly with heavy rains and storm surge, the latter of which caused massive flooding problems across the islands, with some coastal cities reported to be underwater after Julia's passage. Beaches were primarily gone after a ten-foot storm surge, stirred up from chaotic low-level winds, made landfall and caused significant damage, primarily at the southern end of West Side National Park. At times, torrential rainfall submerged inland roads to the point of being closed off, while powerful waves eroded beachside streets and properties. In addition, gusty winds reportedly downed some power lines in Andros Town, resulting in scattered power outages as thousands of people lost electricity. In addition, flooding and heavy rainfall led to the seepage of sewer lines, contaminating water supplies, resulting in a total loss of water supplies across the island. Julia continued to track west, making landfall in Miami, Florida later that day as a 40 MPH tropical storm beginning to rapidly degenerate due to increasing dry air and land interaction, despite remaining over water during the storm's first two landfalls in Turks and Caicos as well as the Bahamas. Julia's effects in southern Florida were somewhat limited in the view that damage was mainly minimal from the storm. Over thirteen inches of rain fell in Miami, with reports of minor flooding and inundated homes in suburban areas. Also, minor tornadoes were reported across the Florida mainland, though only an EF1 in downtown Miami caused significant damage, including skyscraper windows being blown in, as well as ripping the roofs off smaller buildings and uprooting trees prior to dissipating over Virginia Key, having caused $270 million in damages separate from the rest of the storm. On August 17, Julia weakened to an extratropical depression as it turned northward over the Gulf of Mexico, drawing in massive amounts of moisture, once again building up the storm's thunderstorm complexes to make it subtropical, later making a second landfall in Panama City, Florida with winds of 50 MPH. A five-foot storm surge affected up twenty miles of coastline, eroding nearly eight miles of beach, thrusting several beachfront properties in imminent danger, whilst other houses collapsed and fell into the Gulf. Heavy rainfall caused flooding as far inland as Georgia, while high winds uprooted small trees and knocked out power, as well as blowing down signs and shattering windows on buildings across the city. Julia weakened to a remnant low over Georgia, shifting northeast as mountain peaks over North Carolina tore the system apart on August 19. In total, Julia was seriously devastating, causing over $525 million in damages, and resulting in eleven fatalities in both Florida and the Turks and Caicos.

Hurricane Karl (WIP)
On August 18, the NHC began monitoring a Fujiwhara between an organizing tropical wave and an upper-level low for potential merging into what was a rare tropical system. Within hours, the rapidly strengthening wave became a depression and absorbed the low into itself, thus doubling the size of the mammoth system.

Tropical Storm Lisa
On August 21, a low-pressure system to the southeast of Jamaica began tightening its circulation as convection began to appear in the storm's core. The system then began to intensify rapidly due to a sudden drop in wind shear as Hurricane Karl continued to intensify to the southeast. Lisa became Tropical Depression Thirteen, of which later was pushed over Cuba by intense outflow from Category 4 Hurricane Karl as the storm passed to the south of Jamaica. Thirteen caused minimal damage to Cuba; mainly associated with heavy rains that caused serious flooding towards the eastern end of the island nation. Gusty winds resulted in minor tree damage and snapped power lines, causing isolated power outages across the region. Isolated tornadoes were also reported in Cuba, though none were stronger than EF0, all of which caused slight damage to trees, buildings, and crops. In addition, heavy rainfall triggered several mudslides across the region, causing major damage to cities and hillside residences. Thirteen continued to travel NNW and eventually emerged over the Gulf of Mexico. As favorable conditions enveloped and boosted the storm, the center of low pressure continued to drop while convection tightened around the core. By August 23, Thirteen was fully upgraded to Tropical Storm Lisa.

Lisa continued to track WNW across the Gulf as it later peaked at 50 MPH the next day, August 24. Several ships were reportedly caught in Lisa's circulation, though none reportedly intense or dangerous conditions. Many reported waves only four feet in height that would only pose dangers to smaller boats and vessels, though torrential rain made conditions dangerous for navigation, as powerful gusts rocked lighter boats to the point of capsizing, whilst others were sent off course and blew on shores that were not their original destination. Later that day, Lisa made landfall in Cocodrie, Louisiana as a 45 MPH tropical storm, having been weakened by the impending landfall. Lisa's direct hit caused moderate damaged around the city, though, as the core of the storm pushed inland, powerful gusts as high as 90 MPH caused major damaged, including ripping shingles off roofs and blowing in windows. Downed trees abounded; of which some fell on homes and businesses, while others blocked roads and littered yards and parks. On August 25, 0235UTC, Lisa transitioned into an extratropical cyclone over Alabama, having lost its tropical characteristics due to land interaction. Dry air continued to impede the structure of the storm, as Lisa's remnants lost their closed circulation a day later over North Carolina, where the storm produced high winds and light rain, causing moderate damage. Reports of intense tornadoes were reported across the state, which was hit by one of the largest tornado outbreaks in the state's history just a week prior when Hermine made landfall in North Carolina. Most tornadoes caused significant damage as they hit populated areas throughout the state, with most rating EF1 or EF2 on the Enhanced-Fujita Scale. An EF2 ravaged Raleigh, North Carolina as Lisa passed through the state, dumping more than 12 inches of rain in under an hour, causing severe flash flooding as many rivers and creeks overturned their banks, having just begun to recede after Hermine dumped nearly 17 inches of rain during landfall. Scattered power outages abounded as a result of high winds snapping wires or knocking trees onto lines. Lisa also brought severe thunderstorms and heavy rain to Virginia; eventually traveling to New York by August 27. There, the remnants of Lisa caused damage with rough surf along the coast, eroding beaches as well as contaminating water supply pipes and overflowing sewers. In addition, ten subway tunnels were inundated, having caused more damage than Sandy did in 2012. In total, Lisa caused a grand estimate of $960 million, having become one of the most destructive tropical storms of all time, only behind 2001's Allison. After dissipating over Atlantic Canada, Lisa caused over 67 deaths, most of which are attributed to the catastrophic flooding that occurred during the storm.

Tropical Depression Fourteen (WIP)
On August 24, a low-pressure system to the east of Turks and Caicos began to undergo a transition into tropical development as closed circulation developed while the system's outer rain bands began intensifying. Even before the storm turned tropical, the extratropical system produced 35 MPH winds and heavy rains, mainly in Cockburn Town, causing flash flooding and slick roads. Gusty winds damaged trees and bent signs over, as well as assisting in making driving conditions impossible throughout the city, resulting in the closure of many high-traffic and exposed roads and interchanges, including state highways, which remained open even in Hurricane Fiona. As the system shifted northeast, tracking away from the islands, it entered a more favorable environment as moisture and warm water became abundant, as less dry air became entrained in the system. Soon after, the system became subtropical while winds jumped to 30 MPH, thus resulting in the system's upgrade to Tropical Depression Fourteen. The system remained at a subtropical intensity until August 26, when Fourteen entered a large, very favorable patch of warm waters, thus allowing for a substantial improvement in the system's cloud pattern, becoming fully tropical soon after. However, Fourteen then shifted NNE, towards cooler waters and increasing wind shear, which soon began to weaken the storm.

Tropical Storm Matthew (WIP)
On September 4, a vigorous extratropical system pushed across Mexico and emerged just north of the Yucatán over the Gulf of Mexico. The system began to rapidly intensify as it took on subtropical characteristics, then tropical characteristics within hours, having being upgraded to Tropical Storm Matthew when a recon flight found 45 MPH winds in the storm's deepening core. Matthew continued to travel northeast across the Gulf as Tropical Storm Watches were issued from Louisiana to the Florida Keys as the storm took on a fairly large size for a tropical storm. By September 5, Matthew experienced a burst of convection prior to slamming into a trough of wind shear, which resulted in the southwest portion of the storm being torn apart, however, convection and rapid pressure drops resulted in the formation of an eye in the core.

Hurricane Nicole (WIP)
On September 10, a tropical wave began to undergo development just east of the Bahamas. Within hours, the system was estimated have winds maxing at 30 MPH as the new depression continued to travel west.

Tropical Storm Otto (WIP)
On September 13, a developing tropical wave east of the Yucatán began to slowly intensify, intensification hindered due to increasing wind shear. Within hours, the system turned northeast as a sudden pressure drop resulted in intensification near the storm's core. Tropical Depression Seventeen, as it became known as, then passed over the Cayman Islands, bringing heavy rain that resulted in widespread flooding, as well as the production of a weak tornado near George Town that resulted in $23 million in damages.

Hurricane Paula (WIP)
On September 24, an upper-level low merged with an extratropical system near Bermuda and began to produce inclement weather to the south of the island, mainly torrential rain and severe thunderstorms. Within hours, convection began to coalesce around a centralized area of low pressure, resulting in a tightening circulation of the system's outer rain bands.

Storm Names
The following is a list of names used during the 2016 Atlantic season. Retired names were announced by the WMO in spring of 2017, and all remaining names will be used once again in 2022. The list is the same used in the 2010 season, with the exception of Ian and Tobias, which replaced Igor and Tomas, respectively. The names Ian and Tobias were used for the first time in 2016. Two names; Virginie and Walter, remained un-used throughout the year.

Retirement:
In Spring of 2017, the 39th session of the World Meteorological Organization retired five names from the above rotating list; Fiona, Hermine, Karl, Nicole, and Tobias. These will be retired due to the extraneous damage and high amounts of fatalities as a result of their storm's nature. They will be replaced with Fern, Holly, Kenneth, Natalia, and Tyler for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, respectively. This was the highest amount of names retired in a single season, tying with the 2005 season, which also had five names retired.