National Usercane Center/Usercane Advisories

The National Usercane Center (NUC) is the branch of the BNWC that tracks usercanes.

These advisories will be updated once weekly (usually on Fridays), or if the storm undergoes an unexpected intensity change.

2010 Storms
Remnants of SJMAVEN:

Maximum sustained winds: 30 mph, Minimum pressure: 1007 mbar

The remnants of Hurricane Sjmaven are located about 600 miles west of the Azores. Although regeneration of the system remains unlikely, we have upped our development chances due to the possibility of Tropical Storm Agatha forming in the Pacific next week, which could bring warm waters up to the system allowing it to regenerate into a subtropical cyclone.


 * Regeneration chance within 1 week...low...20 percent
 * Regeneration chance within 1 month...low...20 percent

2011 Storms
No 2011 storms are currently active.

2012 Storms
Subtropical Storm STEVE:

Maximum sustained winds: 60 mph, Minimum pressure: 990 mbar

Steve has undergone slight weakening due to cooler waters and moderate dry air entrainment. Intensification should be fairly limited for the storm over the next few weeks, but many models hint that the storm will enter a more favorable environment in late June, which could allow for some intensification.

Late May 2016 - 60 MPH/SUBTROPICAL

Mid June 2016 - 60 MPH/SUBTROPICAL

Late June 2016 - 65 MPH

Late July 2016 - 75 MPH

Late August 2016 - 85 MPH

Subtropical Storm RARA:

Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph, Minimum pressure: 1007 mbar

The extratropical cyclone that previously was Hurricane Rara has regenerated into a disorganized subtropical cyclone with a weak warm core. While we currently do not expect significant intensification, there are still a large range of possibilities with this storm.

Late May 2016 - 45 MPH/SUBTROPICAL

Mid June 2016 - 50 MPH/SUBTROPICAL

Late June 2016 - 50 MPH/SUBTROPICAL

Late July 2016 - 50 MPH/SUBTROPICAL

Late August 2016 - 60 MPH/SUBTROPICAL

2013 Storms
Major Hurricane HYPE:

Maximum sustained winds: 200 mph, Minimum pressure: 869 mbar

Hype appears to have reached 200 mph a second time as a small eye remains present. Hype continues to be the only 200 mph storm on record...the increase is due to a report of 205 mph winds from the SMWC.

Mid May 2016 - 200 MPH

Late May 2016 - 200 MPH

Late June 2016 - 205 MPH

Late July 2016 - 205 MPH

Late August 2016 - 200 MPH

Hurricane RYNE:

Maximum sustained winds: 100 mph, Minimum pressure: 968 mbar

Hurricane Ryne has intensified back into a category 2 hurricane. We continue to expect the storm to intensify over the coming months. Some models suggest that the system may rapidly intensify, while others keep the system at a slow intensification pace.

Mid May 2016 - 105 MPH

Late May 2016 - 110 MPH

Late June 2016 - 115 MPH

Late July 2016 - 120 MPH

Late August 2016 - 125 MPH

2014 Storms
Hurricane AZURE:

Maximum sustained winds: 75 mph, Minimum pressure: 986 mbar

Azure has unexpectedly intensified into a category 1 hurricane as a small eye has become visible on satellite imagery. We have substantially risen the forecast trajectory for the storm as a result; however, a minority of models show weakening.

Mid May 2016 - 75 MPH

Late May 2016 - 80 MPH

Late June 2016 - 90 MPH

Late July 2016 - 100 MPH

Late August 2016 - 100 MPH

Major Hurricane LAYTEN:

Maximum sustained winds: 140 mph, Minimum pressure: 945 mbar

Hurricane Layten has undergone slight weakening in recent weeks due to cooling sea-surface temperatures. Models generally suggest Layten to retain category 4 intensity throughout the forecast period, however, with one model showing Layten weakening to a tropical storm.

Mid May 2016 - 140 MPH

Late May 2016 - 140 MPH

Late June 2016 - 130 MPH

Late July 2016 - 130 MPH

Late August 2016 - 130 MPH

2015 Storms
Major Hurricane ODILE:

Maximum sustained winds: 140 mph, Minimum pressure: 940 mbar

Hurricane Odile has weakened slightly due to increasing wind shear from Hurricane Anthony. Odile is expected to maintain category 4 intensity at this time, however, as it is expected to enter an area with lower wind shear in the later part of the forecast.

Mid May 2016 - 130 MPH

Late May 2016 - 140 MPH

Late June 2016 - 140 MPH

Late July 2016 - 145 MPH

Late August 2016 - 145 MPH

Major Hurricane BOB:

Maximum sustained winds: 165 mph, Minimum pressure: 912 mbar

(No advisories due to storm being own usercane)

Major Hurricane FLOYD:

Maximum sustained winds: 155 mph, Minimum pressure: 922 mbar

Hurricane Floyd continues to slowly intensify over time in the central tropical Atlantic. We expect Floyd to possibly become a category 5 hurricane towards the end of the forecast period.

Mid May 2016 - 155 MPH

Late May 2016 - 155 MPH

Late June 2016 - 155 MPH

Late July 2016 - 160 MPH

Late August 2016 - 160 MPH

Major Hurricane COLLIN:

Maximum sustained winds: 130 mph, Minimum pressure: 945 mbar

Hurricane Collin has explosively intensified back into a category 3 hurricane due to virtually no wind shear and very warm sea surface temperatures. We expect Collin to continue to intensify into a strong category 4 hurricane by the end of the forecast period.

Mid May 2016 - 140 MPH

Late May 2016 - 140 MPH

Late June 2016 - 145 MPH

Late July 2016 - 150 MPH

Late August 2016 - 150 MPH

Major Hurricane ANTHONY:

Maximum sustained winds: 160 mph, Minimum pressure: 929 mbar

Hurricane Anthony has weakened slightly for the first time ever to 160 mph, due to moderate wind shear. Significant weakening is not currently expected, however, as the storm is expected to enter a more favorable environment in a few days.

Late May 2016 - 160 MPH

Mid June 2016 - 160 MPH

Late June 2016 - 165 MPH

Late July 2016 - 165 MPH

Late August 2016 - 165 MPH

Remnants of NKECHINYER:

Maximum sustained winds: ABSORBED

The remnants of Hurricane Nkechinyer have been absorbed into a tropical wave over Africa. Regeneration at this point seems very unlikely, and it is expected that the resulting tropical wave will be sheared apart before it re-enters the Atlantic.

Regeneration chance within 5 months...low...near 0 percent

Remnants of JACK:

Maximum sustained winds: 25 mph, Minimum pressure: 1014 mbar

Tropical Storm Jack has dissipated into a trough of low pressure as it has made landfall in the Lesser Antilles. Regeneration seems possible by mid-June.

Mid May 2016 - DISSIPATED

Late May 2016 - DISSIPATED

Late June 2016 - 40 MPH

Late July 2016 - 45 MPH/SUBTROPICAL

Remnants of HYPOTHETICAL:

Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph, Minimum pressure: 1012 mbar

Dry air has ripped the circulation of Hurricane Hypothetical apart, and the system is now a remnant low. Regeneration is possible, but the system is very hard to forecast due to its trend of dissipating and regenerating.

Regeneration chance within 2 months...medium...50 percent Regeneration chance within 5 months...medium...50 percent

2016 Storms
Major Hurricane KERANIQUE:

Maximum sustained winds: 130 mph, minimum pressure: 939 mbar

Hurricane Keranique has intensified into a category 4 hurricane - the first category 4 hurricane of the 2016 Usercane Season. We expect Keranique to continue to intensify over the coming months.

Late May 2016 - 130 MPH

Mid June 2016 - 130 MPH

Late June 2016 - 140 MPH

Late July 2016 - 140 MPH

Late August 2016 - 145 MPH

Major Hurricane DARREN:

Maximum sustained winds: 120 mph, minimum pressure: 954 mbar

Hurricane DARREN has intensified further to 120 mph as reported from a BNWC recon flight. We continue to expect Darren to further intensify, with a chance at becoming a category 4 hurricane late in the forecast period.

Late May 2016 - 120 MPH

Mid June 2016 - 120 MPH

Late June 2016 - 120 MPH

Late July 2016 - 125 MPH

Late August 2016 - 130 MPH

Tropical Storm PEARL:

Maximum sustained winds: 60 mph, Minimum pressure: 1000 mbar

Tropical Storm Pearl has undergone slight weakening due to limited convection at the core of the storm. Models now show Pearl taking on a weakening trend for the coming months.

Mid May 2016 - 60 MPH

Late May 2016 - 50 MPH

Late June 2016 - 45 MPH

Late July 2016 - 45 MPH

Late August 2016 - 40 MPH

Tropical Storm NUNO:

Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph, Minimum pressure: 995 mbar

Tropical Storm Nuno has intensified further to 50 mph. While the storm has intensified some, we expect additional development to be slow to occur while Nuno moves slowly southwest at 1 mph.

Mid May 2016 - 50 MPH

Late May 2016 - 50 MPH

Late June 2016 - 60 MPH

Late July 2016 - 50 MPH

Late August 2016 - 45 MPH

Subtropical Storm CALLUM:

Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph, Minimum pressure: 1005 mbar

Callum has intensified back into a subtropical storm. We expect Callum to briefly hit a new peak intensity before weakening again.

Late May 2016 - 45 MPH/SUBTROPICAL

Mid June 2016 - 40 MPH/SUBTROPICAL

Late June 2016 - 35 MPH/SUBTROPICAL

Late July 2016 - 35 MPH/SUBTROPICAL

Late August 2016 - 35 MPH/SUBTROPICAL

Tropical Storm DAVID:

Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph, Minimum pressure: 1005 mbar

Tropical Storm DAVID has re-intensified back into a tropical storm. We expect continued intensification for David over the coming months, but hurricane intensity is not predicted at this time.

Late May 2016 - 40 MPH

Mid June 2016 - 45 MPH

Late June 2016 - 45 MPH

Late July 2016 - 50 MPH

Late August 2016 - 45 MPH

Remnants of RS:

RS has dissipated. Advisories will be discontinued for now, but the storm may regenerate in the coming weeks.

Remnants of CHRIS:

CHRIS has dissipated. Advisories will be discontinued for now, but the storm may regenerate in the coming weeks.

Tropical Storm ORLANDO:

Maximum sustained winds: 60 mph, Minimum pressure: 990 mbar

Tropical Storm Orlando has intensified to 60 mph. Models continue to suggest that the system will continue to intensify over the coming months with most models taking the system up to hurricane intensity by mid-summer.

Late May 2016 - 65 MPH

Mid June 2016 - 70 MPH

Late June 2016 - 75 MPH

Late July 2016 - 90 MPH

Late August 2016 - 100 MPH

~FORECASTER BOB (BNWC) (Updated May 14, 2016 - 11:00 AM EDT)