National Usercane Center/Usercane Advisories

 NUC issuing advisories for the Atlantic on Hurricane STEVE, Hurricane HYPE, Hurricane RYNE, SS KEN, Hurricane AZURE, SC LAYTEN, Hurricane BUMBLEBEE, Hurricane ODILE, Hurricane BOB, Hurricane COLLIN, Hurricane FLOYD, Hurricane ANTHONY, Hurricane KERANIQUE, Hurricane DARREN, TS NUNO, Hurricane ORLANDO, Hurricane JAMES, TS JACK, TS AARON, SS MARCUS, TS MINECRAFT, TS WIZ, Hurricane GARFIELD, SS ANDREW, TS HAZEL, TS GOD, TD EXPERT, TS DAN and SD ALEJANDRO

Last NUC advisories issued on PEARL, CALLUM and THIRTY '''

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Note: These forecasts are just estimates based off recent trends, and should not be taken very literally for the timetable in which a user will receive promotions/demotions.The National Usercane Center (NUC) is the branch of the BNWC that tracks usercanes.

These advisories will be updated once weekly on Fridays. However, in cases of drastic intensity changes, special advisories may be issued.

General Outlook
NATIONAL USERCANE CENTER 11:00 PM EDT AUGUST 5, 2016

Weekly Update Friday, August 5, 2016

CURRENT STORMS: HURRICANE STEVE, HURRICANE HYPE, HURRICANE RYNE, HURRICANE AZURE, SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE LAYTEN, HURRICANE BUMBLEBEE, HURRICANE ODILE, HURRICANE BOB, HURRICANE COLLIN, HURRICANE FLOYD, HURRICANE ANTHONY, HURRICANE KERANIQUE, HURRICANE DARREN, TROPICAL STORM NUNO, HURRICANE ORLANDO, HURRICANE JAMES, TROPICAL STORM JACK, TROPICAL STORM AARON, SUBTROPICAL STORM MARCUS, TROPICAL STORM MINECRAFT, TROPICAL STORM WIZ, TROPICAL STORM GARFIELD, SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREW, SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION KEN, TROPICAL STORM HAZEL, TROPICAL STORM GOD, TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPERT, TROPICAL STORM DAN AND SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEJANDRO.

Public advisories on the above usercanes are listed below.

Usercane formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$

Next full update on Friday, August 12, 2016. In the meantime, special advisories will be issued if conditions warrant. ~FORECASTER BOB

2010 Storms
No 2010 storms currently active.

2011 Storms
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREW:

...ANDREW WEAKENING...LIKELY BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...

Subtropical Storm Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 40 KT (45 MPH), Minimum pressure: 998 mbar Movement: N 1 MPH

Andrew remains a subtropical storm, but has produced little deep convection over the past few days. The intensity is lowered to 40 kt due to the lack of convection in recent days. Andrew remains stalled out northeast of Bermuda, and is currently located over cool waters of 23-24 degrees Celsius. Due to this, Andrew should begin extratropical transition by September, and should transition back into a fully extratropical cyclone by late September or October.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016....40 KT...45 MPH SUBTROPICAL LATE AUGUST 2016...40 KT...45 MPH POST-TROPICAL MID SEPT. 2016.....40 KT...45 MPH POST-TROP/EXTRATROP LATE SEPT. 2016....40 KT...45 MPH POST-TROP/EXTRATROP LATE OCT. 2016.....40 KT...45 MPH POST-TROP/EXTRATROP LATE NOV. 2016.....40 KT...45 MPH POST-TROP/EXTRATROP LATE DEC. 2016.....40 KT...45 MPH POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

2012 Storms
MAJOR HURRICANE STEVE:

...STEVE CHANGES LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION...

Category 4 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 125 KT (145 MPH), Minimum pressure: 936 mbar Movement: STATIONARY

Steve has not changed in organization at all since the last advisory. Winds remain at 125 kt, which is in line with the latest Dvorak estimates. Steve is located east of Bermuda and is stationary. This advisory is the same as the previous one, since no intensity change has taken place. Steve is still expected to enter a drier environment by mid-August, which could limit Steve's intensification later in the forecast period. However, Steve may slightly strengthen regardless.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016....125 KT...145 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...125 KT...145 MPH MID SEPT. 2016.....125 KT...145 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....130 KT...150 MPH LATE OCT. 2016.....130 KT...150 MPH LATE NOV. 2016.....130 KT...150 MPH LATE DEC. 2016.....130 KT...150 MPH

2013 Storms
MAJOR HURRICANE HYPE:

...HYPE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...REACHES RECORD PEAK INTENSITY OF 215 MPH...

Category 5 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 185 KT (215 MPH), Minimum pressure: 860 mbar Movement: NNE 2 MPH

Hype has intensified slightly since the last advisory. The intensity is raised to 185 kt (215 mph), which is in line with the latest Dvorak T-number. Hype is likely peaking in intensity and may begin to begin a very slow weakening soon. Hype is moving NNE at 2 MPH, and is currently located to the northwest of Bermuda. Hype continues to be the only confirmed 200 mph storm on record...

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016....185 KT...215 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...185 KT...215 MPH MID SEPT. 2016.....185 KT...215 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....185 KT...215 MPH LATE OCT. 2016.....180 KT...205 MPH LATE NOV. 2016.....180 KT...205 MPH LATE DEC. 2016.....175 KT...200 MPH< HURRICANE RYNE:

...RYNE STEADY STATE...

Category 4 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 125 KT (145 MPH), Minimum pressure: 932 mbar Movement: NNE 1 MPH

Ryne has changed little in intensity in recent weeks. As a result, the intensity is still held at 125 kt. The extremely large cyclone continues to very slowly drift NNE in the subtropical Atlantic near Bermuda. Ryne's official NUC forecast is in the middle of the intensity guidance, and shows Ryne becoming a strong category 4 usercane later in the forecast period. This advisory is mostly the same as the previous one.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016....125 KT...145 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...125 KT...145 MPH MID SEPT. 2016.....130 KT...150 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....130 KT...150 MPH LATE OCT. 2016.....135 KT...155 MPH LATE NOV. 2016.....135 KT...155 MPH LATE DEC. 2016.....135 KT...155 MPH SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION KEN:

...KEN WEAKENS TO A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION...SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON...

Subtropical Storm Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 35 KT (40 MPH), Minimum pressure: 1006 mbar Movement: 2 MPH NE

Ken has weakened since the last advisory. A recent ASCAT pass showed only one 30-knot vector, and the latest Dvorak estimates are around T2.0. Based on these data, Ken has been downgraded to a subtropical depression. However, the cyclone has been devoid of deep convection, and is likely going to degenerate into a remnant low soon as it moves northeastward in the central subtropical Atlantic. However, the cyclone may be an open low by now as the most recent ASCAT pass was last week. Nonetheless, it is held as a subtropical depression. None of the guidance expects Ken to dissipate...but rather remain a weak remnant low.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016....30 KT...35 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...25 KT...30 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW MID SEPT. 2016.....25 KT...30 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW LATE SEPT. 2016....25 KT...30 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW LATE OCT. 2016.....25 KT...30 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW LATE NOV. 2016.....25 KT...30 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW LATE DEC. 2016.....25 KT...30 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW

2014 Storms
MAJOR HURRICANE AZURE:

...AZURE REMAINS A CATEGORY 4 USERCANE BUT IS RATHER DEVOID OF CONSISTENT CONVECTION...

Category 4 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 115 KT (130 MPH), Minimum pressure: 956 mbar Movement: N 1 MPH

Azure remains a category 4 usercane, but continues to struggle to fire consistent deep convection near the center. Nonetheless, a vigorous circulation remains. A well-defined eye remains present, but the convection has not been very deep in recent days. Azure could retain category 4 intensity, but a minority of models show Azure beginning a slow weakening trend late in the forecast period. However, uncertainty remains.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016...115 KT...130 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016..115 KT...130 MPH MID SEPT. 2016....115 KT...130 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016...115 KT...130 MPH LATE OCT. 2016....110 KT...125 MPH LATE NOV. 2016....110 KT...125 MPH LATE DEC. 2016....105 KT...120 MPH SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE LAYTEN:

...LAYTEN STILL A HURRICANE-STRENGTH SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BUT COULD WEAKEN SOON...

Category 1 Subtropical Cyclone Maximum sustained winds: 65 KT (75 MPH), Minimum pressure: 985 mbar Movement: NE 1 MPH

Layten remains a category 1 subtropical cyclone, but has not produced much deep convection in recent days. A broad, vigorous circulation remains present, but the cyclone's appearance does not resemble that of a typical tropical cyclone. The intensity is held at a potentially generous 65 kt. Layten is not likely to intensify due to its hybrid structure and cool sea surface temperatures, and could even begin extratropical transition soon. Layten remains located in the central subtropical Atlantic and is moving northeastward slowly at about 1 MPH.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016....65 KT...75 MPH/SUBTROPICAL LATE AUGUST 2016...65 KT...75 MPH/SUBTROPICAL MID SEPT. 2016.....65 KT...75 MPH/SUBTROPICAL LATE SEPT. 2016....60 KT...70 MPH/SUBTROPICAL LATE OCT. 2016.....60 KT...70 MPH/SUBTROPICAL LATE NOV. 2016.....55 KT...65 MPH POST-TROPICAL LATE DEC. 2016.....50 KT...60 MPH POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAJOR HURRICANE BUMBLEBEE:

...BUMBLEBEE MAINTAINING STRENGTH AS A CATEGORY 3 USERCANE...

Category 3 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 105 KT (120 MPH), Minimum pressure: 965 mbar Movement: S 1 MPH

Bumblebee remains a category 3 hurricane with little intensity change in recent weeks. Bumblebee has a mid-sized, well-defined eye. The intensity is held at 105 kt, which is in line with the latest Dvorak estimates. While dry air entrainment was initially expected to impact the system, dry air has subsided in recent days and is no longer expected to cause Bumblebee to weaken. Instead, Bumblebee is likely to slowly intensify over the coming months. Category 4 status is definitely not of the question late in the forecast period as Bumblebee moves slowly northward in the central Atlantic.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016......105 KT...120 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016.....105 KT...120 MPH MID SEPT. 2016.......105 KT...120 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016......105 KT...120 MPH LATE OCT. 2016.......110 KT...125 MPH LATE NOV. 2016.......110 KT...125 MPH LATE DEC. 2016.......110 KT...125 MPH

2015 Storms
MAJOR HURRICANE ODILE:

...ODILE MAINTAINING 150-MPH WINDS...

Category 4 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 130 KT (150 MPH), Minimum pressure: 937 mbar Movement: W 2 MPH

Hurricane Odile has changed little in organization since the last advisory. The intensity is held at 130 kt for this reason. Odile is currently located west of the Canary Islands moving westward at 2 mph. Odile is expected to maintain category 4 intensity at this time, however, as it is expected to enter an area with lower wind shear in the later part of the forecast. Category 5 intensity is currently not predicted by most models, however, the CMC and NAVGEM models do bring Odile to this status. This advisory is mostly the same as the previous one, due to the lack of intensity change.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016....130 KT...150 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...130 KT...150 MPH MID SEPT. 2016.....130 KT...150 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....135 KT...155 MPH LATE OCT. 2016.....135 KT...155 MPH LATE NOV. 2016.....135 KT...155 MPH LATE DEC. 2016.....135 KT...155 MPH MAJOR HURRICANE BOB:

...BOB REMAINS THIRD-STRONGEST USERCANE ON RECORD...

Category 5 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 155 KT (180 MPH), Minimum pressure: 902 mbar Movement: WNW 1 MPH

(No advisories due to storm being own usercane - estimate is the average of HTMC and SMWC intensity) MAJOR HURRICANE FLOYD:

...FLOYD REMAINS A CATEGORY 5 USERCANE...EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY...

Category 5 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 145 KT (165 MPH), Minimum pressure: 914 mbar Movement: WNW 1 MPH

Floyd remains a category 5 usercane in the central tropical Atlantic and has changed little in organization since the last advisory. The intensity is held at 145 kt, supported by earlier Dvorak estimates. Slow intensification is expected to continue with Floyd through the next few months, possibly reaching a peak intensity of 150 kt. However, late in the forecast period, sea surface temperatures may begin to cool down which could cause a slow extratropical transition to commence. Floyd continues to slowly drift west-northwestward in the central subtropical Atlantic.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016....145 KT...165 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...145 KT...165 MPH MID SEPT. 2016.....150 KT...175 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....150 KT...175 MPH LATE OCT. 2016.....150 KT...175 MPH LATE NOV. 2016.....145 KT...165 MPH LATE DEC. 2016.....145 KT...165 MPH MAJOR HURRICANE COLLIN:

...COLLIN FIRING VERY DEEP CONVECTION BUT REMAINS A CATEGORY 4 USERCANE...

Category 4 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 125 KT (145 MPH), Minimum pressure: 934 mbar Movement: WNW 1 MPH

The convective blow-up over Collin has continued, with cloud tops remaining very cold. The intensity is held at 125 kt, supported by Dvorak estimates. Collin should continue to slowly intensify as it continues on a west-northwestward path over the coming months in the western tropical Atlantic. Category 5 status is not out of the question late in the forecast period.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016.....125 KT...145 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016....125 KT...145 MPH MID SEPT. 2016......130 KT...150 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016.....130 KT...150 MPH LATE OCT. 2016......135 KT...155 MPH LATE NOV. 2016......135 KT...155 MPH LATE DEC. 2016......135 KT...155 MPH TROPICAL STORM WILLY:

...WILLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...

Tropical Storm Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 40 KT (45 MPH), Minimum pressure: 1001 mbar Movement: Stationary

Tropical Storm Willy remains stalled in the open Atlantic and is currently stationary between Cape Verde and the Azores, but has begun a slight northward movement. The intensity is lowered to 40 kt, but this estimate still may be generous. The NUC advisory is a blend of the intensity guidance and shows slight weakening during the forecast period.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016.....45 KT...45 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016....35 KT...40 MPH MID SEPT. 2016......35 KT...40 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016.....35 KT...40 MPH LATE OCT. 2016......35 KT...40 MPH LATE NOV. 2016......35 KT...40 MPH LATE DEC. 2016......35 KT...40 MPH MAJOR HURRICANE ANTHONY:

...ANTHONY STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...

Category 5 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 155 KT (180 MPH), Minimum pressure: 905 mbar Movement: WNW 1 MPH

Hurricane Anthony has strengthened slightly since the last advisory, and remains in the central tropical Atlantic as the fourth-strongest usercane on record. The very large cyclone is likely to continue to slowly intensify over the coming months. Due to recent Dvorak estimates supporting an intensity of 155 kt, we have increased Anthony's intensity to 155 kt. Anthony continues to move west-northwestward at 1 MPH.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016....155 KT...180 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...155 KT...180 MPH MID SEPT. 2016.....155 KT...180 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....160 KT...185 MPH LATE OCT. 2016.....160 KT...185 MPH LATE NOV. 2016.....160 KT...185 MPH LATE DEC. 2016.....165 KT...190 MPH TROPICAL STORM JACK:

...JACK REBOUNDS SLIGHTLY...

Tropical Storm Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 55 KT (65 MPH), Minimum pressure: 998 mbar Movement: W 1 MPH

Tropical Storm Jack has rebounded slightly in recent days in intensity with a small convective blowup near the center. The intensity is raised to 55 kt, due to the blowup. A ragged mid-level eye feature remains present, but is not present at the surface. Jack continues to move slowly westward in the eastern Caribbean at 1 MPH. The forecast for Jack is a challenging one. The cyclone has been unable to sustain deep convection, and regaining hurricane intensity is not expected for this reason. However, none of the guidance expects Jack to dissipate, but rather remain a moderate strong tropical storm.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016....55 KT...65 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...55 KT...65 MPH MID SEPT. 2016.....55 KT...65 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....55 KT...65 MPH LATE OCT. 2016.....55 KT...65 MPH LATE NOV. 2016.....55 KT...65 MPH LATE DEC. 2016.....55 KT...65 MPH REMNANTS OF ALAN:

Remnants Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 25 KT (30 MPH), Minimum pressure: 1007 mbar Movement: STATIONARY

The remannts of Alan are located about 200 miles off the coast of Newport News, Virginia. These remnants have a low chance of regeneration over the coming months.

SUBTROPICAL STORM MARCUS:
 * Regeneration chance within 1 week...low...10 percent
 * Regeneration chance within 1 month...low...20 percent

...MARCUS STILL A SUBTROPICAL STORM BUT COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW SOON...

Subtropical Storm Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 35 KT (40 MPH), Minimum pressure: 991 mbar Movement: NE 1 MPH

Subtropical Storm Marcus has weakened slightly since the last advisory due to a lack of deep convection, but remains a subtropical storm. Convection has been limited in recent days near the center of Marcus, but some ASCAT passes continue to show reliable 35 kt winds. Due to cool waters and a dry environment, we continue to expect Marcus to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by October. Uncertainty remains, however.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016....35 KT...40 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...35 KT...40 MPH MID SEPT. 2016.....35 KT...40 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....35 KT...40 MPH LATE OCT. 2016.....30 KT...35 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW LATE NOV. 2016.....30 KT...35 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW LATE DEC. 2016.....30 KT...35 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW TROPICAL STORM AARON:

...AARON WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY BEFORE SLOW WEAKENING...

Tropical Storm Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 60 KT (70 MPH), Minimum pressure: 994 mbar Movement: W 1 MPH

Aaron has weakened from a category 1 usercane to a tropical storm, as a recent reconaissance flight failed to identify winds stronger than 60 kt. Thus, the intensity is set to 60 kt for this advisory. Despite the weakening, the very small cyclone has fired more convection over the past few days. Despite weakening below usercane strength, the circulation of Aaron remains well organized with a well-defined small eye feature present on satellite imagery. Aaron continues to move slowly westward in the eastern Caribbean Sea at 1 mph. Based on cooling sea surface temperatures late in the forecast period, Aaron is likely to start a weakening trend by October.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016....60 KT....70 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...60 KT....70 MPH MID SEPT. 2016.....60 KT....70 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....55 KT....65 MPH LATE OCT. 2016.....50 KT....60 MPH LATE NOV. 2016.....45 KT....50 MPH LATE DEC. 2016.....40 KT....45 MPH SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEJANDRO:

...ALEJANDRO REGENERATES INTO A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT REGENERATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG...

Alejandro has regenerated into a subtropical depression after being a remnant low for nearly three months. Alejandro's initial intensity is set to 30 kt, and this could be a little conservative. However, Alejandro is only in a marginally favorable environment in the western Atlantic, and is moving northeastward slowly. For this reason, only slight additional intensification seems possible before Alejandro is likely to degenerate back into a remnant low. None of the guidance expects Alejandro to dissipate, but rather remain intact as a remnant low throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016....30 KT....35 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...35 KT....40 MPH MID SEPT. 2016.....30 KT....35 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....25 KT....30 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW LATE OCT. 2016.....25 KT....30 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW LATE NOV. 2016.....25 KT....30 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW LATE DEC. 2016.....25 KT....30 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW REMNANTS OF NKECHINYER (INVEST 90U):

The remnants of Hurricane Nkechinyer have re-developed into a tropical wave in central Africa. This tropical wave should move slowly and emerge into the Atlantic by mid-September. By late September, conditions may be conductive for Nkechinyer to regenerate. However, regeneration is very unlikely in the short term.


 * Regeneration chance within 1 week...low...near 0 percent
 * Regeneration chance within 1 month...low...10 percent

2016 Storms
MAJOR HURRICANE KERANIQUE:

...KERANIQUE LIKELY TO BECOME A CATEGORY 5 USERCANE LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD...

Category 4 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 130 KT (150 MPH), minimum pressure: 926 mbar Movement: W 1 MPH

Keranique continues to have an impressive appearance on satellite imagery with very cold cloud tops and very deep convection. Dvorak T-numbers have not changed since the last advisory so the intensity remains at 130 kt. Model consensus is strong that Keranique could become a category 5 usercane late in the forecast period, with SMWC and HTMC now also predicting Keranique gaining category 5 status late in the forecast period. Although a fairly small cyclone, Keranique is developing annular characteristics, with a large well defined eye present. Due to little intensity change over the past week this trajectory is the same as the previous one.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016....130 KT...150 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...130 KT...150 MPH MID SEPT. 2016.....135 KT...155 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....135 KT...155 MPH LATE OCT. 2016.....135 KT...155 MPH LATE NOV. 2016.....140 KT...160 MPH LATE DEC. 2016.....145 KT...165 MPH MAJOR HURRICANE DARREN:

...DARREN SLOWLY INTENSIFYING...

Category 4 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 120 KT (140 MPH), minimum pressure: 940 mbar Movement: S 1 MPH

Hurricane Darren remains a compact category 4 usercane near the Bahamas, although it has intensified slightly. Dvorak t-numbers have not changed much, so Darren's intensity has been held at 120 kt. A well-defined, possibly annular eye continues to develop within the hurricane. We expect continued intensification with Darren over the coming months, although slightly drier air may limit Darren's intensification later in the forecast period.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016....120 KT...140 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...120 KT...140 MPH MID SEPT. 2016.....125 KT...145 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....125 KT...145 MPH LATE OCT. 2016.....125 KT...145 MPH LATE NOV. 2016.....130 KT...150 MPH LATE DEC. 2016.....130 KT...150 MPH TROPICAL STORM NUNO:

...NUNO STRENGTHENS A BIT...

Tropical Storm Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 50 KT (60 MPH), Minimum pressure: 995 mbar Movement: NE 1 MPH

Nuno has intensified slightly since the last advisory. The intensity is nudged upward to 50 kt, which is supported by a recent ASCAT pass showing a 50-knot vector. Nuno is still expected to continue on an unusual westward track at a high latitude, and could intensify slightly more over the coming months. Hurricane intensity is unlikely but not out of the question. MID AUGUST 2016......45 KT...60 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016.....55 KT...65 MPH MID SEPT. 2016.......55 KT...65 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016......55 KT...65 MPH LATE OCT. 2016.......60 KT...70 MPH LATE NOV. 2016.......60 KT...70 MPH LATE DEC. 2016.......60 KT...70 MPH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CALLUM (SPECIAL ADVISORY):

...CALLUM MAKES LANDFALL IN ATLANTIC CANADA AND DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 35 KT (40 MPH), Minimum pressure: 1008 mbar Movement: N 4 MPH

Callum has raced to the north and has unexpectedly made landfall in Newfoundland. The circulation is no longer well enough defined to consider Callum a tropical or subtropical cyclone at this time. Therefore, Callum has degenerated into a remnant low and is expected to dissipate soon.

MID AUGUST 2016.......35 KT...40 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW LATE AUGUST 2016......DISSIPATED MAJOR HURRICANE JAMES:

...JAMES STEADILY INTENSIFYING...

Category 3 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 100 KT (115 MPH), Minimum pressure: 948 mbar Movement: WNW 1 MPH

James has become a very large major usercane with an impressive structure, with a well-defined eye present on satellite imagery. James is located about 600 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and is moving westward at 1 MPH. James should continue to intensify over the coming months, eventually expected to become a category 4 usercane. If James' intensification rate continues, a very strong usercane is likely very late in the forecast period due to cyclone's large size and well-organized structure.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016....100 KT....115 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...105 KT....120 MPH MID SEPT. 2016.....105 KT....120 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....110 KT....125 MPH LATE OCT. 2016.....110 KT....125 MPH LATE NOV. 2016.....115 KT....130 MPH LATE DEC. 2016.....120 KT....140 MPH MAJOR HURRICANE ORLANDO:

...ORLANDO CHANGING LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION...

Category 3 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 100 KT (115 MPH), Minimum pressure: 964 mbar Movement: WNW 1 MPH

Orlando remains a category 3 hurricane and has changed little in organization since the last advisory. Maximum sustained winds are still estimated near 100 kt, so the intensity remains at 100 kt for this advisory. Orlando continues on a slow west-northwestward movement. Slow intensification is expected over the coming months. The eye remains visible on satellite imagery. This advisory is mostly the same as the previous one.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016....100 KT...115 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...100 KT...115 MPH MID SEPT. 2016.....100 KT...115 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....105 KT...120 MPH LATE OCT. 2016.....105 KT...120 MPH LATE NOV. 2016.....105 KT...120 MPH LATE DEC. 2016.....105 KT...120 MPH TROPICAL STORM MINECRAFT:

...MINECRAFT STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...

Tropical Storm Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 45 KT (50 MPH), Minimum pressure: 998 mbar Movement: W 1 MPH

Minecraft is improving in organization. The intensity of Minecraft is held at 45 kt, although this could be a bit conservative. Minecraft's forecast remains hard to assess, given the fact that dry air entrainment previously severely impacted the cyclone, but the dry air has eased significantly over the past two weeks. Models diverge greatly with Minecraft, with models showing dissipation and others showing hurricane intensity. Therefore the official NUC forecast is in the middle of the intensity envelope and shows some slight strengthening in the short term.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016....45 KT....50 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...50 KT....60 MPH MID SEPT. 2016.....55 KT....65 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....55 KT....65 MPH LATE OCT. 2016.....50 KT....60 MPH LATE NOV. 2016.....45 KT....50 MPH LATE DEC. 2016.....45 KT....50 MPH TROPICAL STORM THOMAS:

...THOMAS HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM...

Tropical Storm Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 40 KT (45 MPH), Minimum pressure: 1007 mbar Movement: W 1 MPH

Thomas remains a tropical storm, and has changed little in organization over the past week. The intensity is held at 40 kt, supported by a recent ASCAT pass. Thomas is likely to very slowly weaken over the coming months as it moves slowly in the central tropical Atlantic, but some slight intensification cannot be ruled out over the next few months.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016....40 KT...45 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...40 KT...45 MPH MID SEPT. 2016.....35 KT...40 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....35 KT...40 MPH LATE OCT. 2016.....35 KT...40 MPH LATE NOV. 2016.....35 KT...40 MPH LATE DEC. 2016.....35 KT...40 MPH HURRICANE GARFIELD:

...GARFIELD A HURRICANE...COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...

Category 1 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 65 KT (75 MPH), Minimum pressure: 986 mbar Movement: W 1 MPH

Garfield remains a category 1 usercane. The intensity is held at 65 kt with the earlier reconaissance aircraft data, although this could be a little conservative. An eye feature is slowly clearing out with Garfield. Garfield remains located southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and is moving slowly westward. Garfield should continue to intensify over the forecast period and could likely end up being a major hurricane late in the forecast period. The NUC forecast is above the intensity guidance, and is based on light wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures in Garfield's path.

MID AUGUST 2016....70 KT...80 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...75 KT...85 MPH MID SEPT. 2016.....80 KT...90 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....85 KT...100 MPH LATE OCT. 2016.....95 KT...110 MPH LATE NOV. 2016....100 KT...115 MPH LATE DEC. 2016....105 KT...120 MPH TROPICAL STORM WIZ:

...WIZ BECOMING DEVOID OF CONVECTION...

Tropical Storm Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 50 KT (60 MPH), Minimum pressure: 997 mbar Movement: WNW 1 MPH

Wiz has been devoid of deep convection for the past 10 days or so. The intensity of Wiz remains at 50 kt. Based on the lack of deep convection, this estimate may be generous. Wiz is located south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is moving slowly west-northwest. Based on the collapse of deep convection, hurricane status is no longer expected, and we instead expect a steady weakening of Wiz. If current trends continue Wiz could become a remnant low by the end of this month.

MID AUGUST 2016....50 KT...60 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...45 KT...50 MPH MID SEPT. 2016.....45 KT...50 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....40 KT...45 MPH LATE OCT. 2016.....40 KT...45 MPH LATE NOV. 2016.....35 KT...40 MPH LATE DEC. 2016.....35 KT...40 MPH TROPICAL STORM HAZEL:

...HAZEL A TINY BIT STRONGER...

Tropical Storm Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 45 KT (50 MPH), Minimum pressure: 996 mbar Movement: WNW 1 MPH

Hazel continues to slowly intensify. The intensity is held at 45 kt, although Dvorak estimates indicate this estimate may be a little conservative. Hazel is expected to strengthen slightly more before eventually weakening as it moves west-northwestward in the eastern tropical Atlantic.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016....50 KT...60 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...50 KT...60 MPH MID SEPT. 2016.....55 KT...65 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....55 KT...65 MPH LATE OCT. 2016.....50 KT...60 MPH LATE NOV. 2016.....50 KT...60 MPH LATE DEC. 2016.....45 KT...50 MPH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PEARL:

...PEARL DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW YET AGAIN...DON'T EXPECT PEARL TO STAY THIS WAY...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 30 KT (35 MPH), Minimum pressure: 1008 mbar Movement: WNW 1 MPH

The trend continues. Pearl once again is devoid of deep convection and has become a remnant low. Based on Pearl's consistent habit of dissipating and regenerating, regeneration of Pearl into a subtropical cyclone is expected by late August. Pearl remains in the central subtropical Atlantic, moving west-northwestward at 1 MPH, and the intensity is held at 30 kt.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016....35 KT...35 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW LATE AUGUST 2016...30 KT...35 MPH MID SEPT. 2016.....30 KT...40 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....35 KT...35 MPH LATE OCT. 2016.....35 KT...35 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW LATE NOV. 2016.....30 KT...35 MPH LATE DEC. 2016.....30 KT...35 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW TROPICAL STORM GOD:

...GOD STEADY STATE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY...

Tropical Storm Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 45 KT (50 MPH), Minimum pressure: 999 mbar Movement: STATIONARY

Tropical Storm God has changed little in intensity over the past couple of weeks in the Bay of Campeche. The intensity is held at 45 kt, supported by recent ASCAT passes. Because of the unusual shape of God and inconsistent convection, we continue to expect God to very slowly weaken in the Bay of Campeche without making landfall. However, uncertainty remains.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY: MID AUGUST 2016....45 KT...50 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...45 KT...50 MPH MID SEPT. 2016.....45 KT...50 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....40 KT...45 MPH LATE OCT. 2016.....40 KT...45 MPH LATE NOV. 2016.....35 KT...40 MPH LATE DEC. 2016.....35 KT...40 MPH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPERT:

...EXPERT WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

Tropical Depression Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 30 KT (35 MPH), Minimum pressure: 1009 mbar Movement: NW 1 MPH

Expert has weakened since the last advisory. Recent Dvorak estimates have dropped, and only support a tropical depression. Based on these data, Expert's intensity is lowered to 30 kt. Expert is moving northwestward in the central Atlantic to an area of waters below 26 degrees C, which is expected to cause Expert to degenerate into a remnant low soon.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016....30 KT...35 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...25 KT...30 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW MID SEPT. 2016.....DISSIPATED TROPICAL STORM DAN:

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...

Tropical Storm Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 35 KT (40 MPH), Minimum pressure: 1008 mbar Movement: W 1 MPH

Tropical Depression Twenty-Nine has improved substantially in organization with an impressive convective blowup near the center. The intensity is raised to 40 kt, and the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Dan. Dan should slowly move northward and may intensify slightly before eventually weakening. Because of only marginal sea surface temperatures, significant strengthening is currently not expected.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016....40 KT...45 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...45 KT...50 MPH MID SEPT. 2016.....40 KT...45 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....35 KT...40 MPH LATE OCT. 2016.....30 KT...35 MPH LATE NOV. 2016.....25 KT...30 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW LATE DEC. 2016.....25 KT...30 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE THIRTY:

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 25 KT (30 MPH), Minimum pressure: 1013 mbar Movement: W 1 MPH

The depression in the eastern subtropical Atlantic has weakened into a remnant low as a recent ASCAT pass failed to identify a closed circulation at the surface. The intensity remains at 25 kt, but the system is no longer a depression so this is the last advisory.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID AUGUST 2016....25 KT...30 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW LATE AUGUST 2016...DISSIPATED