User blog comment:CycloneRyne94/Event for May - You decide the 2018 Atlantic season outcome!/@comment-26971007-20180501142949

A lot of factors are coming into play which will likely mean 2018 will be less active than the previous two years. First, sea surface temperatures over the tropical Atlantic are cooler than average, which is less than ideal for hurricane formation. Second, a large subsurface pool of warm water has appeared over the Pacific, indicating that a weak El Niño is possible by the end of the season. I don’t think these factors will “kill” the season (I don’t expect anything like 2013 for example), but conditions just aren’t there to support a very active season. Leaning towards a near average season myself at this time.