Mushroom Kingdom National Hurricane Center (MKNHC)/04L.DEBBY



Tropical Depression FOUR

As of 16:00 UTC July 7, 2042:


 * Location: 19.3 N, 80.3 W
 * Maximum sustained winds: 30 kt (35 mph)
 * Gusts: 40 kt (45 mph)
 * Minimum pressure: 1007 mb

Public Advisory
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 1 11:00 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2042 ...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... LOCATION: 19.3 N 80.3 W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW AT 4 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating the strong area of low pressure in the western Caribbean Sea found flight-level winds of 42 kt and SFMR readings ranging from 29-32 kt in the northeastern quadrant. They also found westerly winds strong enough to qualify the description of a closed low-level circulation. Based on this info and Dvorak readings of T2.0/30 kt, advisories have been initiated on a tropical depression, the fourth of the 2042 Atlantic hurricane season.

The depression is currently located in slow steering currents, and as a result, it will move slowly over the next few days. Intensification is expected over this time period as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, and it is estimated that it will be a minimal hurricane by the time it passes through the Yucatán Channel on Wednesday. However, given that sea surface temperatures and oceanic heat content are unusually high for this time of year (left over from last year's historic season), it is not entirely out of the question that the depression may strengthen more quickly then what is depicted here. The SHIPS model gives a 29% chance of the depression's wind speed increasing by 45 kt by early Wednesday morning.

Interests in the Yucatán Peninsula, Cuba, and even along the Gulf Coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this cyclone, as it is expected to be at least an 85 kt category 2 hurricane by Saturday as it nears the coastline.

INTENSITY FORECAST:

INIT 13/1300Z....30 KT...35 MPH 12H 13/0200Z....35 KT...40 MPH 24H 14/1300Z....45 KT...50 MPH 36H 14/0200Z....45 KT...50 MPH 48H 15/1300Z....60 KT...70 MPH 72H 15/1300Z....70 KT...80 MPH 96H 15/1300Z....80 KT...90 MPH 120H 15/1300Z....85 KT...100 MPH/APPROACHING LAND