User blog:VileMaster/GIHC 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook 1

It is December 2017, and the GIHC has released their first official forecast for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. Looking at atmospheric conditions, the GIHC anticipates a slightly above average to above average season, predicting 14-17 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, and 2-5 major hurricanes, with an ACE of 110-150 units.

Climatology Factors
One of the main reasons the GIHC anticipates above normal activity is due to a la nina event, which will likely prevent an el nino from forming in 2018. However, there is an off-chance that one can still form, which is why GIHC did not forecast higher numbers. Due to the presumed lack of el nino next year, trade winds will be low and will favor tropical cyclone formation. Also looking at recent patterns, waters will likely be very warm as well. This could produce a lot of strong storms in the upcoming season.

Potential Threats
The GIHC think that there is a slightly above average chance of TC impacts in the United States in 2018. This is due to a possible trend that started in 2016, where overall more tropical cyclones have made landfall and have moved closer to land. GIHC predicts 5 named storms will make landfall in the U.S in 2018, 3 as hurricanes and one as a major. Always be prepared and listen to your weather advisors. It only takes one to make a season memorable.