2016 Atlantic hurricane season (Live Version) (Sassmaster15)

The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing annual event of tropical cyclone formation in the North Atlantic ocean. The season began June 1 and will conclude November 30; these are the dates that conventionally limit tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic basin and are adopted by convention. However, tropical cyclone formation is possible any time of the year. As of July 24, 2016, the season's first named storm, Alex, developed in the Gulf of Mexico, nearly two months after the official start. Alex would later make landfall as a minimal hurricane in Pensacola, Florida. After a short respite in activity, Tropical Depression Two formed in the Gulf Stream. Tropical Storm Bonnie soon followed, developing near the Leeward Islands.

To this point, most forecasting groups have expected this season to be above average to very active, due to a combination of factors including an expected transition to La Niña and warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and Western Atlantic, despite near-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region near Cape Verde.

Seasonal Forecasts
The SMWC and all partnering centers will post their predictions in the box below:

Tropical Outlook
SASS MASTER WEATHER CENTER CLEVELAND, OH TROPICAL OUTLOOK 6 PM EDT, MON AUG 8

Tropical Depression TWO

...TWO NO LONGER STALLED...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION Maximum Sustained Winds: 30 KT (35 MPH), Minimum Pressure: 1005 mbar Movement: NNE at 2 MPH

For a tropical depression east of North Carolina...Having recently begun progressing north-northeast once again, Tropical Depression Two continues to exhibit no significant changes in strength while situated to the east of North Carolina. We expect Two to slowly continue on a track NNE, whereas it continually advances at 2 miles per hour. All interests in New England should continue to monitor the progress of Two.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY

TOMORROW AT 10 AM.....30 KNOTS...35 MPH TOMORROW AT 2 PM......30 KNOTS...35 MPH/APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW AT 4 PM......30 KNOTS...35 MPH/APPROACHES MAINE WEDNESDAY AT 10 AM....30 KNOTS...35 MPH/APPROACHES ATLANTIC CANADA WEDNESDAY AT 2 PM.....25 KNOTS...30 MPH/LANDFALL IN NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY AT 4 PM.....20 KNOTS...25 MPH/REMNANT LOW

ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ATLANTIC CITY, NEW JERSEY TO CATHAM, MASSACHUSSETS TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NEW YORK, NEW YORK TO CATHAM, MASSACHUSSETS

MARINE ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS

RIP CURRENT WARNING FOR WATERS EAST AND SOUTH OF CAPE MAY, NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...TO AREAS SOUTH OF NEW YORK...INCLUDING...BLOCK ISLAND SOUND...BUZZARDS BAY...VINEYARD SOUND...AND NANTUCKET SOUND

Next complete advisory at 10 A.M. EDT. In the meantime, special advisories maybe issued if conditions warrant. For further information, please consult the products provided by your local National Weather Service.

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FORECASTER SASSMASTER

NNNN SASS MASTER WEATHER CENTER CLEVELAND, OH TROPICAL OUTLOOK 12 AM EDT, MON AUG 9

Tropical Storm BONNIE (SPECIAL ADVISORY)

...STRONG TROPICAL STORM EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 KT (50 MPH), Minimum Pressure: 999 mbar Movement: W at 7 MPH

For a strong tropical storm east of the Leeward Islands...A recent development, SMWC reconnaissance aircraft have identified a lower-level closed circulation within the former Invest 92L. Due to the system retaining tropical storm-force winds, we have assigned it the name Bonnie. Further intensification can and should be expected after Bonnie crosses the Leeward Islands tomorrow and emerges into the Caribbean. Most affected will be the islands of Montserrat, St. Knitts, Nevis, and Barbuda. All interests throughout the Caribbean, mainly Cuba, should continue to monitor the progress of Bonnie.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY

TOMORROW AT 10 AM.....50 KNOTS...60 MPH TOMORROW AT 2 PM......65 KNOTS...75 MPH/HURRICANE/LANDFALL IN MONTSERRAT TOMORROW AT 4 PM......65 KNOTS...75 MPH/DEPARTS MONTSERRAT WEDNESDAY AT 10 AM....75 KNOTS...85 MPH WEDNESDAY AT 2 PM.....85 KNOTS...100 MPH/CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WEDNESDAY AT 4 PM.....90 KNOTS...105 MPH THURSDAY AT 10 AM.....100 KNOTS..115 MPH/MAJOR HURRICANE/CAYMAM ISLANDS AFFECTED THURSDAY AT 2 PM......100 KNOTS..115 MPH/APPROACHES CUBA THURSDAY AT 4 PM......100 KNOTS..115 MPH/LANDFALL IN CUBA

ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS

NONE

MARINE ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS

NONE

Next complete advisory at 10 A.M. EDT. In the meantime, special advisories maybe issued if conditions warrant. For further information, please consult the products provided by your local National Weather Service.

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FORECASTER SASSMASTER

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Hurricane Alex
On July 22, an area of disturbed weather traveling through the Caribbean later shifted to the northwest after a building ridge of high pressure to the southwest induced the directional change. Initially, another trough ahead of the disturbance resulted in it stalling just to the southwest of Cuba. However, the trough soon dissipated and the system later consolidated into the season's first tropical depression the next day. Continuing to travel on a near-northernly track to the west of Cuba, lessening wind shear allowed for additional intensification, thus, the system became Tropical Storm Alex the same day. On July 24, Alex entered the Gulf of Mexico while situated to the west of the Dry Tortugas. Since then, Alex continued to accelerate north-northeast towards the United States Gulf Coast. After rapidly growing in size, Alex attained winds of 65 knots, the required threshold for minimal hurricane status; the first of the season. Several hours later, a convective blowup took place in the core of the hurricane. This resulted in the storm attaining winds of 70 knots; its peak intensity. At 00:00 UTC, Alex made landfall at that intensity just east of Pensacola, Florida. Alex became the first hurricane-strength tropical cyclone to make landfall in Florida since Hurricane Wilma of 2005. Some destruction ensued from the hurricane, including severe flooding in Navarre Beach, where two fatalities were later reported. Alex weakened to a tropical storm upon crossing the Florida-Georgia border, persisting as a fully tropical cyclone despite unfavorable conditions due to land interaction. At 13:00 UTC, July 27, Alex was designated as a post-tropical cyclone whilst over West Virginia. At the time, the cyclone was retaining maximum sustained winds of 50 knots. The PT cyclone continued on a course north-northeast, where it was absorbed into a frontal system the following day over Quebec.

Upon landfall near Pensacola, the area was subjected to torrential rainfall and hurricane-force winds of 70 knots. Alex caused sporadic power outages throughout the western Florida panhandle, with the city of Navarre being the worst affected. At the height of the hurricane, Alex caused nearly 9,000 customers to lose electrical power. Wind damage was severely exacerbated in Fort Walton Beach by an EF1 tornado, which destroyed thirty-three houses and left another twenty-one roofless. Despite landfall at low tide, storm tides peaked at nearly four feet in height. Santa Rosa Island was mostly inundated by a four foot storm surge, rendering most roads impassible and leaving nearly two-hundred homes and businesses uninhabitable. Inland, rainfall amounts totaled nearly five inches. Some street flooding was observed in Valparaiso. Throughout the Florida panhandle, Alex caused two-hundred-and-five million in damages, with Santa Rosa Island being the worst affected. Two deaths were reported due to flooding in Navarre Beach; these being the only fatalities to occur during Hurricane Alex. A further twenty people were seriously injured in the hurricane, most centered in Pensacola and Santa Rosa Island.

Storm Names
The following list of names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2016. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2017. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2022 season. This is the same list used in the 2010 season, with the exception of Ian and Tobias, which replaced Igor and Tomas, respectively.