2017 Atlantic usercane season

If you're new to the usercane concept, check this blog if you want to see how usercanes work: How Usercanes Actually Work.

The 2017 Atlantic usercane season was a below average season overall, but featured a record number of named userstorms forming, although most of the storms were weak, with only 4 usercanes and 2 major usercanes - the least since 2012 and 2013, respectively.

A usercane is a hypothetical tropical or subtropical cyclone that is assigned to a user once they reach 25 edits or more. On average, about 10 to 15 storms develop each season, albeit the last two seasons have seen over 30 named storms. Multiple usercane centers monitor usercane formation throughout the year, including the National Usercane Center, the Sass Master Weather Center, the Floyd Meteorological Center, the HTs Meteorological Center (HTMC) and the International Coriolis Observatory of the North Atlantic.

Although the season had an early start and featured a very high number of named storms, the season was very weak, and had the slowest start since 2013, with only 2 storms forming before the month of April. Despite the uptick in named storms in early June, only two achieved major usercane intensity — Usercane Chap, and Usercane Alissa - with the latter only achieving usercane intensity for a short time. The lack of activity is believed to be attributed to a significant weakening of the userthermohaline circulation, creating unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic — especially the Main Development Region (MDR). As of August, no usercanes have formed from tropical userwaves — the first such occurrence on record. In September, specifically late September, there was an explosive increase in activity, at least eight userstorms forming in late September alone. However, the season remains weak with no new usercanes. The explosion of activity continued on in October, even setting the record for the most named storms in any usercane season.

The season's strongest storm was Usercane Chap, a strong but compact Category 4 usercane. The other fully tropical usercanes were Usercanes Cooper and Prism, which were the third and fourth hurricane-strength storms, respectively, as Subtropical Userstorm Alissa had achieved Category 3 intensity as a subtropical storm.

During post-season analysis, 5 unnoticed userstorms were identified — Tropical Userstotm Justin, Tropical Userstorm Barney, Tropical Userstorm Nicholas, Tropical Userstorm Orange, and Tropical Userstorm Nibiru..

Seasonal forecasts
Ahead of and during the season, several usercane centers release seasonal forecasts. On December 4, 2016, the Garfield International Hurricane Center (GIHC) released its forecast, predicting above-average activity with 25 named storms, 7 usercanes and 5 major usercanes, which is slightly above the long-term average but significantly less active than the 2015 and 2016 seasons. On December 14, the National Usercane Center released their first 2017 forecast, predicting above-average activity with 25-30 named storms, 7-10 usercanes, and 5-8 major usercanes. A third hurricane center, the Akio Hypothetical Usercane Center (AHUC), made its prediction on December 23, 2016, predicting well above average activity with 34-38 Tropical Storms, 9-13 usercanes, and 7-11 Major usercanes. On the same day as the AHUC, the Floyd Meteorological Center (FMC) released their 2017 forecasts, predicting slightly above-average activity with 26-31 named storms, 7-10 usercanes and 4-7 major usercanes. The same day, the Brick National Meteorological Agency issued their forecast, predicting above-average activity, with 27-36 named storms, with 6-11 of those becoming usercanes (74 mph+), and 5-8 major usercanes (111 mph+). On December 26, 2016, ICON released its official prediction of 28 named storms, 11 usercanes, and 8 major usercanes for the 2017 season. That same day, the Keranique Meteorological Center (KMC) released their forecast, predicting an overall above-average season with 25 named storms, 11 usercanes, but a below-average 4 major usercanes. Also on that same day, the Money Hurricane National Hypothetical Hurricanes Center (MHNHHC) released their forecast, also predicting above-average activity but a less active season than 2015 and 2016, with 21 named storms, 11 usercanes and 5 major usercanes. On December 30, the HTs Meteorological Center (HTMC) released its forecast, predicting above-average activity as well with 27 named storms, 14 usercanes and 6 major usercanes. On December 31, the Mushroom Kingdom National Hurricane Center (MKNHC) released its seasonal prediction for 2017, predicting above-average activity with 29 named storms, 16 usercanes and 8 major usercanes. On January 6, the BPWPC made its prediction for the 2017 usercane season, predicting 26-31 storms, 10-12 hurricanes, and 4-8 major hurricanes, an above-average season. Later the same day, the Minecraft Hurricane Center (MHC) released its forecast for the season, predicting above-average activity, with 25 named storms, 11 usercane, and 5 major usercanes. On April 29, 2017, the BPWPC made its updated forecast, taking actual storms into account. It predicted 12-19 named storms, 3-8 usercanes, and 0-4 major usercanes. On June 27, the Mushroom Kingdom National Hurricane Center released its forecast, significantly lower then previous predictions - only predicting 11 named storms, 4 usercanes and only 1 major usercane. This was due to to the observation of a significant decrease in the strength of the userthermohaline circulation, creating conditions in the Atlantic similar to what is observed in the spring.

Season Summary
Numerous storms that formed in 2015 and 2016 or earlier were active at the start of 2017: Major hurricanes included Usercane Hype, Usercane Bob, Usercane Anthony, Usercane Keranique, Usercane Bumblebee, Usercane Akio, Usercane Floyd, Usercane Roussil, Usercane Darren, Usercane James, Usercane Minecraft, Usercane Garfield and Hurricane Brick. There were also several non-major hurricanes as well as tropical storms.

Tropical Userstorm Chaser (TornadoChaser100)
Around 14:00 UTC on December 31, satellite imagery indicated that a tropical disturbance had developed over central Africa. While gradually moving to the west, the wave originally showed very little convective organization, with sparse thunderstorm activity. On January 3, it entered the Atlantic Ocean and began to quickly develop, but the circulation remained ill-defined. The disturbance was designated Invest 90U by the National Usercane Center on January 4. Organization continued to increase over the next 2 days, and at approximately 15:00 UTC on January 6, Invest 90U became Tropical Userpression One as it developed a closed circulation. The userpression eventually strengthened into a deep userpression. However, it peaked just under tropical userstorm force, with a maximum wind of 38 mph reported. Convection eventually collapsed, and the userpression opened up into a tropical wave while located southwest of Cape Verde on January 22. On April 9, 2017, however, the wave developed a new circulation as winds had increased to tropical storm force, and the system was named Tropical Userstorm Chaser at that time. However, after briefly attaining tropical userstorm status, Chaser began to lose tropical characteristics once again as convection began to wane, and the low was no longer recognizable by late April.

Usercane Chap (TropicalStormChapsteck, formerly Chapsteck4yurlipis)
On January 18, a non-tropical area of low pressure developed along a stationary front south of Bermuda. The low separated from the front, eventually consolidating into Tropical Userstorm Chap. Nearly stationary, Chap slowly strengthened, acquiring severe tropical userstorm status by January 28. Chap continued to strengthen slowly. On February 23, 2017, Chap strengthened into the first usercane of the 2017 season. It intensified to 90 mph, but increasing wind shear caused Chap to remain weak through the next few months. Chap briefly weakened to 85 mph. Wind shear slowly abated in late April, and Chap's eye began to clear out, and on May 16, 2017, Chap attained category 2 intensity. On July 4, 2017, Chap became the first major usercane of the season

Tropical Userstorm Mli (Mli048)
A non-tropical low located well east of Bermuda became a tropical userpression on January 26 after it developed persistent deep convection for several days. The userpession steadily strengthened into Tropical Storm Mli by January 31. However, deep convection dissipated on February 15 and the cyclone degenerated into a swirl of low-level clouds; Mli was no longer a tropical cyclone after this time.

Tropical Userstorm Joshua (Joshua Crain)
On March 31, a tropical userwave exited the coast of Africa. Rapid organization occured with this wave, and the following day it was classified as a tropical userpression while located just 5 miles off the African coast, ending a 2 month period in which no tropical userpressions developed. By April 3, the userpression was producing winds of tropical userstorm-force, and the NUC upgraded it to Tropical Userstorm Joshua. Steady intensification occured throughout the remainder of the year. In its advisories on Joshua, the NUC noted the unusual persistence of the storm, which despite being forecasted to strengthen remained below usercane intensity.

Severe Tropical Userstorm Koliana (Koliana67ana)
A non-tropical low developed into Tropical Userpression Five late on April 8 in the central Atlantic Ocean. Early on April 10, the userpression strengthened into Tropical Userstorm Koliana. The quickly developing cyclone strengthened slightly before its intensity reached a stable point on April 20. After weakening slightly in early May, Koliana restrengthened to attain peak winds of 60 mph (95 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 998 hectopascals. Afterward, the storm slowly began to degrade in structure as it weakened. Kolina weakened rather slowly and at periods fluctuated in intensity. By January 4, 2018, Koliana became devoid of convection and degenerated to a non-convective extratropical low.

Tropical Userpression Six (79344a)
A low pressure area developed over the central Atlantic on April 2. Very gradual strengthening occurred over the next three weeks as convection developed and dissipated periodically. The low finally attained tropical userpression status on April 23, becoming the sixth tropical cyclone of the season. Shortly after, it began weakening and became a remnant low on April 30.

Subtropical Userstorm Brave (SmilingBrave)
In mid-March, an extratropical low formed along a frontal boundary. The low detached from the front and acquired some tropical characteristics in early April. On April 4, convection in the core of the system was well-defined, but the strongest winds remained far from the center of the low. Thus, the low was classified as Subtropical Userpression Seven on April 5. The NUC forecasted the system to quickly turn post-tropical, but instead it intensified slowly, becoming Subtropical Userstorm Brave on May 3. Brave remained steady in intensity throughout the following weeks. In early August, Brave abruptly lost nearly all of its convection, and days later was declared post-tropical.

Subtropical Userstorm Peri (Perismol)
On May 25, a non-tropical low developed into Subtropical Userpression Nine in the central Atlantic. The userpression was initially weak and disorganized, and did not strengthen. On July 12, the NUC declared it a remnant low. Unexpectedly, showers and thunderstorms developed far from the center of the low the following day, although the remnants changed little in organization for the next two weeks. In late July, convection quickly reorganized, and after ASCAT data showed tropical storm force winds and a well-defined circulation, NUC initiated advisories on Subtropical Userstorm Peri on July 28. Peri's overall appearance improved as the storm intensifed. Unusually, intensification of the system was limited to short bursts of convection. By late October, convection began to wane, signifying an extratropical transition. On November 13, Peri was declared post-tropical.

Tropical Userstorm Abdullah (Abdullah Almarri)
A tropical userwave exited the coast of Africa in early February 2017. However, it did not develop into a tropical userpression until June 8, when it was located southwest of Cabo Verde. The userpression eventually strengthened into a userstorm days later and was named Abdullah. The userstorm continued with little change in strength until mid-late June where the storm was downgraded into a tropical userpression after it had been reported to have weakened.

Severe Tropical Userstorm Addict (AhurricaneADDICTXD)
On June 10, a tropical userwave exited the coast of Africa. It developed into a tropical userpression by 00:00 UTC on June 13. The cyclone slowly strengthened into Tropical Storm Addict shortly thereafter as it continued to become better organized. In mid-July, it strengthened into a severe tropical userstorm. Afterward, the storm began to fluctuate in intensity, although still maintained winds of 60 mph (95 km/h). On January 16, 2018, Addict transitioned to an extratropical cyclone over the central north Atlantic.

Tropical Userstorm Minus (SymbolMinus)
In mid-July, a non-tropical area of low pressure formed south of Bermuda. Initial organization was slow to occur. The low pressure area interacted with a tropical wave on July 20 as convection substantially increased, and the NUC initiated advisories on Tropical Userpression Thirteen on July 21. On the same day, the depression would strengthen into Tropical Userstorm Minus.

Tropical Userstorm Stacy (Thetrainboy989/Stacy54)
A tropical userwave developed into a Tropical Userpression on July 22, and quickly strengthened into Tropical Userstorm Stacy later that day. It strengthened to its peak intensity later that day, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Strong wind shear limited intensification, and the low-level center of the userstorm became exposed right after formation. NUC operationally treated the userstorm as a low and did not initiate advisories, due to the intermittent nature of the convection. Stacy opened up into a tropical userwave late on July 23. Stacy eventually regenerated on August 22, but strong wind shear limited further strengthening. Over the course of the next few months, Stacy was slow to strengthen, fluctuating in intensity multiple times.

Soon after reaching its initial peak intensity on July 22, Stacy sunk two boats in the open Atlantic. 5 people died as a result. The first boat had a family of three aboard. All three were lost and never found. The other boat had a group of friends aboard, two of which died after the sinking. The other three survived after being discovered by a boat that passed by. On January 5, Stacy began to rapidly accelerate toward the Caribbean Sea, and on January 11 the storm made landfall on Hispaniola. The storm's remnants emerged off the coast of the island on January 13, before racing towards the United States. The remnants moved over land near Charleston, South Carolina on January 14 and raced inland before dissipating near the Great Lakes.

Usercane Cooper (Cooper7579)
On August 3rd, a tropical userwave exited the coast of Africa. A trough of low pressure interacted with the system, increasing the wave's convection while the two systems remained seperate. The wave gradually developed into a tropical userpression over the next few days until it became Tropical Userstorm Cooper. The storm moved slowly across the tropical Atlantic, strengthening into a Severe Tropical Userstorm on October 11th. On December 1, Cooper became the third (second fully tropical) usercane of the season. A rather small system, Cooper attained Category 2 intensity on January 5, 2018. Upon strengthening into a usercane on December 1, Cooper became the southernmost storm of usercane intensity, attaining this strength at 11.8 degrees latitude.

Current Information
As of February 19, 2018, Usercane Cooper is located south of Hispaniola. Maximum sustained winds are at 110 mph (180 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is at 963 hectopascals, and the system is moving west at 2 mpd.

Tropical Userstorm Cake
After nearly 2 weeks as a tropical userpression, Tropical Userstorm Cake formed from Tropical Userpression Sixteen. Cake persisted as a tropical userstorm until December 16, when it finally dissipated.

Tropical Userstorm Dezcrafter (Dezcrafter)
A tropical userwave entered the Gulf of Mexico on August 31. The userwave developed into a tropical userpression on September 2 and began to strengthen. On September 9 it was classified as Tropical Userstorm Dezcrafter. The newly-formed storm traveled to the northwest. On November 23, Dezcrafter made landfall in Texas at peak intensity with winds of 50 mph (85 km/h) and dissipated a few days later.

Usercane Prism (Prism55Writes)
Tropical Userpression Thirty-Three developed from an upper-level trough on September 7. Tracking westward, the userpression quickly strengthened into Tropical Userstorm Prism. Afterward, Prism displayed healthy convection, but strengthened slowly, becoming a Severe Tropical Userstorm on November 19. Afterward, Prism yet again continued to organize but strengthen slowly until December 12, when it became the fourth (third fully tropical) usercane of the 2017 season. In early January 2018, Prism began to show signs of rapid intensification, with some models showing that it could possibly reach Category 3 intensity. However, Prism ran into shear before intensifying, and the round of strengthening never came into fruition.

Tropical Userstorm Justin (Jnlt215)
During a routine post-season analysis, the CMC noted that a tropical userwave which had moved off the coast of Africa on September 10 had actually developed into a tropical userpression on October 12, and had gone unnoticed. After further analysis, the CMC was able to identify the unnamed system as Tropical Userstorm Justin.

Tropical Userstorm Fester (Fester96)
A tropical userwave merged with a trough of low pressure to create a broad area of low pressure west of Cape Verde. On October 13, this low strengthened into a tropical userpression, and then into Tropical Userstorm Fester a few days later. Unusually, Fester turned to the northeast as it slowly strengthened, and on November 9 the storm made landfall in Morocco. The remnants of Fester developed a new circulation before making landfall yet again in Portugal. Fester continued to form a new circulation every time it made landfall, but the storm only continued to make numerous landfalls in Europe.

Severe Tropical Userstorm Harvey (Cane Harvey)
On October 23, the NUC spotted a new storm off the western of Africa. As the storm tracked west, it continued to strengthen. Initially the storm was given the name Cane, however it turned out to be an error and was renamed Harvey. A very organized storm, the storm had an unusually deep pressure for a tropical storm. However, Harvey weakened slightly in early February of 2018 as it encountered moderately strong vertical shear.

Current storm information
As of 12:00 UTC January 19, Tropical Userstorm Harvey is located west of Cape Verde. Maximum sustained winds are at 65 mph (105 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 984 hectopascals, and the system is moving west at 4 mpd.

Tropical Userstorm Orange (Orangecane)
In a routine post-season analysis,the JCSC noted a Tropical Userstorm that had occured entirely at a time when usercane advisories were not being issued,and therefore gone unnoticed.

Tropical Userstorm LOL (HypotheticalHurricanesLOL)
On October 29, another storm formed off the western coast of Africa and was designated as Tropical Userstorm LOL. Slowly strengthening, the storm peaked at winds of 50 mph and a pressure of 999 mbar on December 25. LOL rapidly weakened, dropping to userpression status on January 19. Finally, it degenerated into a remnant low on January 28.

Tropical Userstorm Vlad (HurricaneTracker)
An area of low pressure developed into Tropical Userstorm Vlad on November 2. After taking a northwest turn, Vlad unexpectedly executed a tight cyclonic loop before accelerating eastward, eventually making landfall in the Western Sahara on December 9.

Tropical Userstorm Barney (BarneyIsTheBest)
During post-season analysis, the CMC noted that an unnoticed userstorm had actually developed on November 3. By January 6, this storm was identified as Tropical Userstorm Barney.

Tropical Userstorm Joe (JoeBillyBob)
On November 11, the NUC spotted a new storm off the western of Africa,however advisories were not issued until December 3. As the storm tracked west, it continued to strengthen,attaining winds of 50 mph. Its winds weakened suddenly,back to a tropical depression. The storm then regenerated back to a 50 mph TS.

Tropical Userstorm Nicholas (Tnicholas)
During the NIMC's post season analysis, an unnoticed userstorm was found by two meteorologists. According to the NIMC, the storm formed on November 18 and went unnoticed. On January 6, along with Tropical Userstorm Barney, was identified as Tropical Userstorm Nicholas.

Tropical Userstorm Nibiru (NibiruPlanetX)
During post-season analysis, yet another unnamed tropical userstorm was identified by the CMC. This short-lived tropical userstorm spent much of its life as an unnumbered userpression before dissipating on January 21, 2018.

Tropical Userstorm Lenny (Floydcane)
During the NIMC's post season analysis, an unnoticed userstorm was found by a group of meteorologists. They later named it Lenny as it gained organization. It was then found that Lenny had actually been observed before post-season analysis, but advisories on the system were not issued until January of 2018.

Tropical Userstorm Alpha (HurricaneAlpha96)
Originally thought to have been a new userstorm, it was later assessed that Alpha was actually a regeneration of Tropical Userstorm Wiz.

Tropical Userstorm Dene (Denezrg)
Originally thought to have been a new userstorm, Dene was later assessed to be a possible regeneration of Tropical Userstorm Butter.

Season effects
This is a table of all the storms that have formed in the 2017 Atlantic usercane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s), denoted in parentheses, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in 2017 USD.