User blog:Hurricane Layten/Eyes on the Tropics: July 4, 2017

Well, yet again, there's several areas to talk about on today's update, and saying this, another one might be possible later today. Nanmadol is heading out into the Pacific after making landfall in Japan last night, and there are several investigation areas in which to be discussed as well, but we will work our way down the list.

First off, as already mentioned, is the remains of Severe Tropical Storm Nanmadol, which made landfall in Japan near peak intensity last night. The cyclone is moving towards the northeast at 34 kt, and is expected to dissipate within the next 12-24 hours as it merges with a frontal system over the Bering Sea. Nanmadol has so far only produced minimal damage and overall effects, mainly due to it's merciful quick forward pace as it is influenced by the system to it's northeast.

Now, onto the Atlantic, where a tropical wave, dubbed "94L", now has a high chance of development within the next 48 hours as it continues to move towards the west-northwest at about 5-10 mph. This system is highly unusual for this time of year, and more typical for something that would appear in the latter half of August after the Saharan Air Layer and the trade winds have calmed down, enabling tropical waves emerging off Africa to organise as they move slowly westwards. Invest 94L could potentially become a tropical storm as early as tonight if the current organisation remains, and the low level circulation contracts. The system, regardless of development, could bring squally weather to the northern Lesser Antilles in the next 5 days or so, which requires at least some monitoring in this region as a result.

Now, onto the eastern Pacific, where Invest 94E now has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. Although this system isn't a threat to land, and doesn't have much time left to develop, some of the models bring it to hurricane intensity before it weakens, though most keep it as a moderate tropical storm until dissipation in 5-6 days time.

Now, onto the next area of interest, a tropical wave out in the Pacific. Although this system has a very slim chance of development within the next 48 hours, it has a high chance of development within 5 days, and is also forecast to stay well out to sea, being little or no issue to land areas during this time. Most of the modelling shows a weak to moderate tropical storm, which will eventually pass over the upwelled waters left behind by 94E as it moves towards the west.

Ona side note, there are also 2 invest areas not mentioned above also mentioned, as I will only be mentioning systems with a medium or higher potential for development here. Invest 91W is forecast to hit parts of the Malaysian Peninsula, with some models also taking the system out into the North Indian Ocean, and a new area of interest was outlined by the NHC, but more on those if the time comes to be necessary to do so, and I'll have more at 2100 UTC if one of the invests becomes a tropical cyclone.