User blog:Hurricane Layten/Eyes on the tropics: July 8, 2017

Today's blog post will be going through the active systems, as usual, and there's a little something that I would also like to mention as well whilst I'm here, but I'll get to that as the post goes on.

Out in the open Pacific, Tropical Storm Eugene developed last night, and I am currently assessing it's intensity to be 50 mph as of the time of writing this post. The cyclone is moving towards the northwest at about 9 mph, and could become a hurricane before moving over the colder waters that are present in the basin this year if it's inner core continues to organise at it's present pace. As already mentioned, Eugene is no threat to land.

I am currently monitoring a vigorous tropical wave that has emerged off the coast of Africa overnight and is producing disorganised shower and thunderstorm activity. The system has been on the modelling on and off the last 3 or 4 days now as having the potential for development, with the GFS now showing a major hurricane near the Greater Antilles in the 9-10 day time frame. Whilst I only pay attention to modelling up to a week out, it is quite concerning seeing the consistency of some models concerning this potential tropical cyclone, and if it does form, those init's path need to keep a close eye on the system.

Whilst it is interesting to see a potential major hurricane in the modelling, it is worth noting that it may not happen, but due to the consistency of the modelling, I think this system will develop, but as already said, it is virtually impossible to predict exactly what the system will do so far out. But let me say one thing though. With a new MJO pulse, and the potential for a convectively coupled Kelvin wave to move across the across the basin, it is certainly interesting to see whether or not this system will actually develop or not, and if it does, it's likely to be yet another red flag, a warning of what could happen later int he season.

On a side note, to users of this wiki, and even people just reading my posts. I have decided to restart my forecasting page I used to have here, which can be found here if you are interested. Anyways, I will have more here either later today or tomorrow if conditions require another update.