User blog:Money Hurricane/2017 Atlantic hurricane season - May Forecast (Money Hurricane)

Hello.

It is almost Atlantic hurricane season, with only about 15 days remaining until June 1. The East Pacific Hurricane season began yesterday, May 15. This year, both basins had storms forming prior to the official start: Arlene in Atlantic in April, and Adrian in the East Pacific about a week ago in May. As this is an Atlantic forecast, only Arlene will be included in the forecast numbers.

Forecast
I expect that this year's season will see similar, if not slightly more, activity than the previous year, 2016. In April, several forecasts were released predicting a slightly below average due to an expected development of El Niño. However, the chance of that occurring has declined throughout the month and a more neutral ENSO pattern is likely. Climate models have been showing unusually favorable conditions persisting throughout the entire season, starkly different from the pattern that began in 2013. A member of the Force 13 team, has noted that the top 3 analogs for 2017 are 1996, 2005, and 2010, all seasons with significant to extreme activity. This may suggest that 2017 may be one of the most active seasons of the decade. Therefore, I announce my expected season totals to be 16-18 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, and 2-4 major hurricanes.

Stay up to Date
Stay up to date on season developments throughout the year.

National Hurricane Center – Regional hurricane center for the Atlantic and East Pacific east of 140°W.

Tropical Tidbits – Model forecasts, latest storm information, and ENSO data.

My twitter – Follow me for daily updates on tropical cyclones (when available)!