User blog:Bobnekaro/Fiona regeneration?

The recent 00z GFS shows that Fiona may try to regenerate near Bermuda after briefly opening up into a trough. As noted in recent NHC forecast discussions, more favorable conditions exist on the other side of the wind shear. Fiona has done quite well in the wind shear, even reaching a new peak intensity of 50 mph tonight. While I do expect Fiona to possibly weaken a bit in the short term, the latest GFS is very interesting. Before Fiona turns post-tropical, it seems to deepen it to a moderately strong tropical storm with a pressure under 1000 millibars. Recent years in the Atlantic have seen stronger storms at high latitudes, and I wouldn't be surprised if somehow Fiona pulled off some kind of strengthening stunt and acquired a new peak. It would be incredible if somehow Fiona became a hurricane, but I just don't really expect that to happen. The latest CMC (not a very good model, though) is also on board with a Fiona regeneration and takes it down to 996 millibars. I believe an earlier EURO run showed a regeneration of Fiona as well. Definitely something to watch. And what is funny is it shows a possible Fujiwhara Interaction with Fiona and Gaston at the end!

The 00z GFS also continues to develop 90L/Gaston as a major hurricane, although it shows slower movement than previous runs. 90L/Gaston looks primed to become a Cape Verde major, and it has strong model support from EURO, UKMET, CMC and GFS. Fiona, if it does survive or regenerate, could have some impact on the track of 90L/Gaston, although I'm not sure exactly what that would be. (I doubt it would be some kind of Fujiwhara like the CMC was suggesting, though).

The 00z GFS barely develops 99L, if it all, as a minimal tropical depression near the Bahamas. It may not even be a tropical cyclone, though. The CMC does develop it, and shows it becoming a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane not far from the NC coast. The latest EURO did not show development of 99L. If 99L does somehow develop into a tropical storm, it would most likely be named Hermine.

But there is a slight chance - if somehow 99L and 90L both develop and Fiona manages to survive - that the Atlantic could have three storms active simultaneously. That would be amazing if that actually happened.

Anyway, I'll conclude by saying that some interesting times are ahead in the Atlantic. Be prepared for lots of up and down moments over the next week to 10 days, as it could be quite exciting. Hurricane season is about to ramp up, and this should be a very fun ride.