User blog:Hurricane Layten/Afternoon updates on the tropics

I said I was going to post again tomorrow, but I’ve decided that the current situation is too important to wait any longer. Typhoon Megi is wreaking havoc over Taiwan, Invest 97-L might have become a tropical depression, but we are waiting for a Hurricane Hunter aircraft to reach the system this evening before the NHC do anything. Out in the Pacific, Roslyn has begun weakening as it begins to turn more to the northeast, and Nineteen-E has been upgraded to a tropical storm and named Ulika by the CPHC. But first off, I think I will start with 97-L.

Investigational area 97-L has been of interest since it was located over Africa on September 21, and has been in the TWO ever since, with its chances of development ever increasing. Tonight, a Hurricane Hunter aircraft will reach the tropical wave, and if they find a closed surface circulation, then it will be designated as Tropical Depression Fourteen. Anyone in the path of this system needs to keep a close eye on its projected track and its intensity as it makes its approach tonight and tomorrow. As of now, I am going to call 97-L a tropical cyclone, with winds of 35 mph. Tropical cyclone watches and warnings will begin to be issued as soon as a closed low level circulation develops within the circulation.

The low will eventually become Hurricane Matthew in about 3-4 days’ time as it moves ever deeper into the Caribbean Sea, and most of the reliable models now take the storm to major hurricane intensity, with the HWRF model outputs showing a category 4 hurricane striking Haiti in about 5.5 days’ time. As I have repeatedly said, I would not be surprised if Matthew was to become a category 5 hurricane at some point during it tenure in the Caribbean, based on the systems very low latitude, meaning it won’t be influenced by the hindering Saharan Air Layer currently wedged in the middle of the Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The GFS models are also showing a powerful hurricane wreaking havoc in the Caribbean, before heading out into the Atlantic, and regaining major hurricane status as it approaches the Southeast US Coast. One good thing can now be said at this point, and that is that all the reliable models have finally come into agreement that the cyclone will head for the Greater Antilles and out into the Atlantic, passing near the Bahamas as it does so. Interests in the Bahamas should keep tabs on Matthew as it approaches, due to the difficulty in the models being able to accurately forecast the system.

Typhoon Megi is another concern at the present time, and is located over Taiwan as a category 2 with winds of 105 mph. I expect the system will follow a close track to those of earlier super typhoons, Nepartak and Meranti, adding to the death and destruction that has taken place in China this season already before finally blowing itself out over the mainland of the country.

Out in the central Pacific, Nineteen-E has recently been upgraded into a tropical storm by the CPHC, and named Ulika in the process. Current winds are 50 mph, and I wouldn’t be entirely surprised to see the storm trying to become a hurricane before it makes the turn into the cooler waters near Hawaii. But for now, it doesn’t pose any threats to land, and is churning harmlessly out in the Pacific.

Tropical Storm Roslyn has finally begun to follow its forecast today, and has begun weakening as it makes the awaited turn towards Baja California. The system is forecast to move out into the Pacific, without making landfall, and to be a remnant circulation by 48 hours.

A new investigation area has also become of interest in the west Pacific, and has been dubbed 98W. this system is forecast to follow a close track behind Megi, and all interests along the storm’s path must watch the storm carefully, as it could become a super typhoon before landfall in about 7 days’ time.

Finally, the trough of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico. I don’t think this system will be able to develop into a tropical cyclone before it makes landfall later tonight, but any interests should still keep a close eye on the system, as it is likely to produce life threatening flash flooding whilst it is active and over the anomalously warm waters.

Ill be posting here again soon, but until then, enjoy your evening, and ill see you on the flip side.