User blog:Bobnekaro/Polar Storm "Bow" could form in the Hudson Bay during the next few days

By Bob Nekaro, BNWC Chief Meteorologist

As we approach polar cyclone season in the Arctic basin which officially begins on November 1, it is not uncommon to see pre-season storms develop. That may happen over the next few days as a broad area of low pressure - designated Invest 91N by the BNWC - could develop into a polar depression or storm in the Hudson Bay. Model support for 91N is high, with all 3 reliable models - the European, GFS, and UKMET - all forecasting development of a Polar Cyclone during the next 5 days. BNWC has given 91N a 30% chance of development in the next 48 hours, and a 70% chance of development during the next 5 days.

Should development occur, the polar cyclone would then likely track northward or north-northwestward in the Hudson Bay. Development conditions are marginal, with wind shear a moderate 15-20 knots, and sea surface temperatures are a little warmer than typically needed to support a polar cyclone. However, in October and November, the Hudson Bay often has high instability, which often results in the formation of polar cyclones early on in the Arctic Cyclone Season. If 91N becomes a polar storm, it would be named "Bow", the second named storm of the 2016-17 Arctic cyclone season, which has already featured Polar Cyclone Advent in June-July in addition to Subpolar Depression Two last month.