User blog:Bobnekaro/June 2, 2016 - Subtropical Depression ONE forms in the Atlantic

BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER  1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL      AL012015 5:00 AM EDT JUNE 2 2016

Invest 90L in the southwestern Atlantic has developed into Subtropical Depression ONE while located about 100 miles east of Brunswick, Georgia. There are still a lot of uncertainties with this system about its track. The HWRF and CMC models are forecasting One to develop into a hurricane out at sea while the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting One to make landfall in the Carolinas as a weak to moderate tropical or subtropical storm. One may become fully tropical in the next few days due to warm sea surface temperatures. We expect this to happen in about 36 hours when wind shear relaxes and the storm enters the warmer waters. Wind shear remains low to moderate at about 15 knots in the southwestern Atlantic.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 27.6N  79.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...SUBTROPICAL 12H 01/1200Z 27.6N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL 24H 02/0000Z 28.0N  79.7W   40 KT  40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL 36H 02/1200Z 28.8N  79.9W   45 KT  45 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 30.1N  79.9W   50 KT  50 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 33.0N  78.3W   60 KT  60 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 38.0N  72.0W   60 KT  60 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 43.0N  64.5W   50 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP Forecast trajectory: NEXT ADVISORY - NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.