User blog:Hurricane Layten/June 18, 2017 Discussion

OK, so there's 2 invest areas active in the Atlantic basin, of which both have a decent chance to become tropical cyclones. An MJO across the MDR is expected, and theres the possibility that a Kelvin wave could also move across the basin briefly as well, which puts some favour on the systems currently active.

First of all, let's talk about Invest 93L, which developed in the Caribbean Sea at 0000 UTC. The cyclonic gyre now has a 40% chance of tropical or subtropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours, and an 80% chance in the next 5 days. i am going to go ahead and disagree with this, and say there is a 60% chance of a tropical or subtropical cyclone developing somewhere within this region in the next 48 hours, and an 80% chance of one forming within the next 5 days. The system is expected to move out into the Gulf of Mexico, and could approach the coast anywhere between Texas and Mississippi. The high uncertainty on landfall location is due to the fact that there is considerable divergence in the modelling in the last few runs, with the GFS still taking a more subtropical in nature storm into the Florida Panhandle before rapidly weakening it as it moves inland. The European model is now also developing this system, though it appears that it is more of a tropical-subtropical hybrid system, that rounds a ridge of high pressure centered over the southeastern Atlantic, and forces a moderate system into the Texas coast in 4 days time.

Now, onto Invest 92L, which has become rather disheveled since yesterday. Although the system is down to 40% for 48 hour development, and 60% for the next 5 days, which is interesting really for several reasons. Both the European and GFS models rapidly develop a tropical storm on the modelling today, before lifting the system out into the Caribbean and having it torn apart by hostile shear by 4 or 5 days time, when it is forecast to be near the Greater Antilles Islands. I'm going to say one thing on this though. If the models are rapidly developing a system today, besides the lack of a well defined convective structure, then my guess is that 92L is going to make a comeback over the next several hours, and might actually stand a chance at becoming a tropical system if it develops quick enough.

Anyway, time to wrap up this post by saying that a recon flight is scheduled by the NHC for 93L at 1740 UTC, so I might have more here later on, depending on what they find.