User blog:Hurricane Layten/97-L becoming a huge concern…

The tropical areas have appeared to be quite interesting today, with the newest model runs suggesting a few new things to be happening over the next few days. Let’s start with the issue on all our minds first, though. For 9 days now, we have all been watching the GFS models develop a very strong, very low latitude major hurricane. The chances for development by Wednesday afternoon are now at 60%, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Tropical Depression Fourteen is already active by tomorrow morning, as the precursor tropical wave has managed to rapidly organise over the last 24 hours. It is of particular concern to the Lesser Antilles as to where, when and how strong Matthew will be when it moves through the islands. The GFS and ECMWF models take a moderate to strong tropical storm through the area on Thursday afternoon-evening, before developing it rapidly as it moves over 32C waters in the eastern Caribbean Sea. I would not be surprised to see Matthew become a category 5 hurricane as it tracks virtually tot eh due west over the coming days, potentially impacting the Greater Antilles as a powerful hurricane. Once out over water though, there is quite a divergence, with the CMC taking the cyclone out to sea for a few days before hitting Bermuda about 10 days out. On the other hand, the GFS models now agree that Matthew will be a direct threat to the Bahamas and the Southeast Coast of the US as a strong hurricane, and the Euro model keeps it in the Caribbean as a strong hurricane for days on end. But, as always, we’ll have to see the outcome that Matthew decides to take as the day’s progress, as the models are having a great amount of difficulty in sticking to their forecast tracks and intensities. Either way, Matthew is going to be formidable, as models are coming into a consensus on in the last day or so, but we’ll see…