User blog:Hurricane Layten/Eyes on the Tropics: July 10, 2017

Alright, into today's post, with an Atlantic area of interest, and Hurricane Eugene, now weakening out in the open Pacific.

But first, let's start with Hurricane Eugene. The cyclone has now moved over the colder waters of the open Pacific. Eugene peaked yesterday as a category 3 hurricane, the first major in the northern hemisphere this year. The hurricane is now weakening, and is forecast to dissipate in around 2-3 days time. The intensification of Eugene was unexpected, and it just goes to prove that forecasts can be wrong, which leads us onto the other part of today's blog post.

While I typically don't trust modelling out beyond 7 days, the type of system that has been predicted by some of the modelling over the last few days isn't something to ignore either. The tropical wave now tagged as an area of interest is shaping up to be a concern, with the GFS showing a high end category 1 hurricane hitting the Lesser Antilles, before going on to hit Haiti as a strong hurricane, and the Bahamas, Florida and New Orleans, LA as a major hurricane. The implication of this certainly cannot be taken as a joke, and even if the scenario doesn't come to light, it's still a warning to get yourselves ready. I will be doing regular blogs on the area of interest for as long as it is an issue, as it will be much needed I feel.

Anyway, I'll have another blog here tomorrow.