User blog:Bobnekaro/The 2017-18 Arctic cyclone season begins October 15

By Bob Nekaro, BNWC Chief Meteorologist 

It is almost that time of year again - Arctic polar cyclone season! The 2017-18 Arctic cyclone season officially begins on October 15 - which is only 19 days away. The start date was moved up from November 1 to October 15 this year, as the month of October has been very active the past few years. The season will run until January 7, 2018, although January has been unusually quiet the past few years.

BNWC's most recent forecast on September 11 predicted that 6-9 named polar storms would form, along with 2-5 polar cyclones and 1-3 major polar cyclones. These numbers were raised from a July 20 outlook, which predicted 5-8 named polar storms, 2-4 polar cyclones and 1-2 major polar cyclones. The 2016-17 Arctic cyclone season finished much less active than predicted due to an unexpected, extended period of large-scale subsidence over the Arctic basin from mid-November to January, with the exception of a brief favorable period in early-mid December. However, 8 named polar storms did form, including the strongest polar cyclone in the basin - Polar Cyclone Evergreen. Models are generally in agreement that the large-scale subsidence problem could continue into this season, although recently models have backed off the sinking air. In fact, a favorable MJO is expected to pass through the basin in the second half of October. This could allow the season to have an early start. No reliable global models currently predict polar cyclone formation over the next week or so.

This season will continue to use the Christmas-themed naming lists used since 2015, and this season List A (the list most recently used in 2015-16) will be used. The names that will be used this season are:
 * Angel
 * Bell
 * Candle
 * Donner
 * Eggnog
 * Fir
 * Gingerbread
 * Holly
 * Icicle
 * Jolly
 * Kris
 * Lantern
 * Merry
 * North (replaces Noel, which was retired after the 2015-16 season)
 * Occasion
 * Poinsettia
 * Ribbon
 * Sleigh
 * Turkey
 * Vacation
 * Wreath

I will be occasionally writing these posts during the season. Stay tuned!

~ Bobnekaro • Page • Wall •  Edits    14:10, September 26, 2017 (UTC)