User blog:Bobnekaro/2015-16 Arctic Season Could Be Record-Breaking

Bob Nekaro, BNWC CEO & Chief Meteorologist

Polar Cyclone Bell has intensified into a Moderate Polar Cyclone today. We're also beginning to monitor a new area of low pressure that is currently extratropical located over Canada, which has been designated as Invest 92N. This season has already had two polar cyclones - which is record breaking in itself. However, this season could be the most active one on record. We revised our prediction today, upping our predicted named storms from 18 to 20-24, our predicted polar cyclones from 10 to 10-12, and our predicted major cyclones from 5 to 5-7. This is due to the fact that wind shear is expected to remain low across the region and due to a Cold Blob in the Atlantic that will likely impact some Icelandic storms once we get into mid-November.

Back to Bell...We expect Bell to reach Major Polar Cyclone status tomorrow evening or night, which would make it the earliest major polar cyclone on record. Bell is currently just north of the Nunavut province, and winds remain at around 100 mph. We cannot rule out Bell reaching Catastrophic Polar Cyclone status by Saturday or Sunday, but we currently predict that it will peak at 145 mph. This estimate could be conservative, though, considering the low shear and ideal development conditions.

Another system - now designated Invest 92N, has been identified. We expect this currently non-polar low to enter the Hudson Bay in a few days, where polar cyclogenesis is possible.

It appears to be the most interesting Arctic Cyclone season ever!

-BNWC