2025 Atlantic hurricane season (MC)

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season featured slightly above-average activity. The total numbers of this season featured 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Several storms made landfall, most of which were at hurricane intensity, thus causing major damage in the areas where the storms made the landfall. Hurricane Humberto, the strongest storm, peaked as a strong 145 mph (125 kt) Category 4 hurricane, though it remained away from any land throughout its existence.

The season officially started on June 1, 2025, and ended officially on November 30, 2025. However, despite a La Niña developing, tropical activity was not seen until the very beginning of July, one month after the start. On July 2, Tropical Depression One formed, later becoming Tropical Storm Andrea. Andrea would later go on to make a Category 3 hurricane landfall in Florida. Several weeks later, Barry would develop and remain as a strong tropical storm, never reaching hurricane intensity as it makes landfall in Louisiana. Chantal developed in August and made landfall in the Dominican Republic as a tropical depression and in Georgia as a hurricane. Chantal caused lots of damage and killing many as it destroyed hundreds of building

Initial predictions for the season anticipated that an El Niño would persist into the 2025 season, lowering storm activity. However, a La Niña began to develop, with cool-neutral conditions developing instead. Thus, predictions began to increase their numbers.

Beginning in 2017, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) had the option to issue advisories, and thus allow watches and warnings to be issued, on disturbances that are not yet tropical cyclones but have a high chance to become one, and are expected to bring tropical storm or hurricane conditions to landmasses within 48 hours. Such systems are termed "Potential Tropical Cyclones".

Seasonal forecasts
Ahead of and during the season, several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) will form during a season and/or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies include the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of University College London, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU), and North Carolina State University (NCSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. On average, an Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained twelve tropical storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of between 66 and 103 units.

Pre-season forecasts
The first forecast for the season was issued by TSR on December 8, 2024, calling for a slightly above-average season, as the El Niño was showing signs of weakening, with a total of 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. On April 3, 2025, CSU issued their forecast, calling for just average activity, with 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Two days later, on April 5, 2025, TSR updated their forecasts, slightly altering their numbers, as the El Niño weakened, but a La Niña was not showing signs of development. Several days later, NCSU issued their forecast, calling for just slightly below-average activity, calling for 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, but 2 major hurricanes, as they noted that the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) was showing small signs of cooling, but a La Niña was expected to form. Almost a month later, NOAA issued their forecast, calling for a somewhat active season, with a total of 10-14 named storms, 4-7 hurricanes, and 1-4 major hurricanes. NOAA mentioned that a La Niña is likely to form, but may not form. Despite the forecasts of a La Niña not developing, the MDR was showing signs of warming up, but not significantly. Thus, on May 31, 2024, the CSU issued their final forecast, calling for 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Mid-season forecasts
NOAA was the first meteorological group to update the forecast during the season, increasing their previous numbers, as a La Niña developed, and the MDR was warming up, as the total predicted was 13-17 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. On July 5, NCSU updated their forecast, altering their numbers, calling for average activity, as the total of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. TSR issued their forecast on July 15, calling for slightly above-average activity, as a La Niña had developed, though no storms have formed, yet. The numbers in total by the TSR were 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Almost a month later, NOAA issued their final forecast, calling for 12-15 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Since a few storms have developed, some forecast agencies lowered the numbers anticipated before. TSR issued their final forecast, slightly lowering the hurricane and major hurricanes, predicting 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The last forecast came from NCSU, forecasting 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

Seasonal summary
The season officially started on June 1. However, the month of June saw no activity, as the Main Development Region (MDR) was slightly cooler, preventing storms from forming properly. Many areas of investigations (AOI's) were active during June, but none became a tropical depression or storm. In July, Andrea developed and ultimately became the first major hurricane of the season, causing devastating damage to the three areas hit by Andrea. Andrea dissipated shortly after July 12. 13 days after Andrea dissipated, Barry developed from a low near Florida and the Bahamas. Barry became a strong tropical storm, just shy of hurricane intensity. Barry made landfall in Louisiana and caused heavy damage. Chantal developed in early August and made several landfalls, killing 44 in total and causing 621 million dollars in damage.

Hurricane Andrea
Late on July 1, a tropical wave developed in the western-central region of the Caribbean Sea, quickly developing into a tropical depression the next day. Conditions appeared favorable for additional development as a La Niña had fully developed a few weeks prior to development. The depression trekked to the northwest, increasing in convection. Despite the conditions, the depression did not intensify. Then, the depression intensified into Tropical Storm Andrea southwest of Jamaica. Andrea began to intensify as it went northwards, towards Cuba. Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches were issued for southwestern Cuba. Andrea was nearing Cuba as it rapidly intensified into a Category 1 hurricane, the first of the year. Andrea continued to intensify as it made its first of three landfalls in Isla De La Juventud, with 90 mph (80 kt) winds. Despite land interaction, Andrea intensified into a Category 2 hurricane just before making landfall in Cuba. The damage estimates for the first two landfalls are around 105 million dollars (2025 USD). Andrea continued to become better organized, and an eye became clear as it trekked more to the northwest. An ASCAT observed flight-level winds of 120 kt, supporting Category 3 winds at surface-level. Thus, Andrea was upgraded to a major hurricane. Winds in Andrea peaked at 121 mph (105.1 kt). Andrea weakened slightly to 115 mph (100 kt) just before making its last landfall in southern Bay County on the panhandle of Florida. Rain levels exceeded 20 inches (50.8 cm) in some areas. Flooding destroyed several homes in Callaway, as in Southport, Florida, strong winds knocked out power for several weeks. Damages from Florida alone was almost 1 billion dollars. Andrea weakened rapidly over Florida and traversed its direction to the northeast, becoming less organized. Andrea dissipating shortly after 00:00 CST on July 12.

Tropical Storm Barry
Very late on July 24, a tropical wave developed between Florida and The Bahamas. Shortly after formation, the wave attained winds of tropical-storm-force. A NOAA Reconnaissance plane flew into this low, and observed surface-level winds of 43 kt, but was lacking organization. The low went over southern Florida and caused slightly minor damage. Another NOAA Recon plane went into this low, and observed surface-level winds of 41 kt and found a well-defined organization. Thus, the National Hurricane Center began to initiate advisories for Tropical Storm Barry, skipping the tropical depression level. Barry underwent through a burst of convection and intensified into a strong 60 mph (50 kt) tropical storm. Barry seemed to continue on its westward direction until it took an unexpected northwards turn. Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches were activated for the Louisiana coastline. An ASCAT observed flight-level winds of 72 kt (83 mph), as surface-level winds were 62 kt (71.3 mph). Thus, Barry was upgraded to a 70 mph. However, it is possible that Barry may have attained hurricane-force winds, but lack of evidence supports an upgrade. An eye began to develop as it neared Louisiana but was not well-developed. Barry made landfall near Vermillion Parish. Strong winds and heavy flooding killed 12 people and causing damage of up to 28 million dollars. A mall in Maurice Village, Vermillion Parish flooded and was destroyed by the rainfall. Barry deteriorated over Louisiana and weakened to a tropical depression, dissipating on August 1.

Hurricane Chantal
On August 5, an area of low pressure developed south of Puerto Rico and began to traverse to the northwest. As sea surface temperatures rose slightly, the low began to develop a defined circulation. The low was then being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. The NHC gave this system a 60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in 5 days. Despite nearing land, the system underwent a burst of convection and was upgraded to Tropical Depression Three just before landfall in the Dominican Republic. Though Three was over land, it intensified further to become Tropical Storm Chantal. Due to a rare brown ocean effect, Chantal continued to intensify over the Dominican Republic and Haiti. As Chantal entered into open Atlantic waters, it intensified further to become the second hurricane of the season. Chantal developed a mid-level eye, but its overall organization was not as well as a normal hurricane would've been. Despite the poor organization, Chantal intensified further to become a high-end hurricane, with winds of 90 mph (80 kt). A buoy recorded a pressure of 971 millibars, thus being the lowest pressure inside Chantal. Chantal neared the Bahamas and Florida, initiating Hurricane Warnings and Watches. Evacuations were issued for areas in or close to the Warning areas. The hurricane weakened slightly, but made landfall in small locations, causing damage all across the area. As Chantal neared Florida, it curved away, trekking to the north, just brushing the southeastern coast of Florida. Chantal's strong winds and heavy rained brought up to 16 inches of rain to areas near the ocean. Houses with poor foundations were swept away, as 26 were killed in Florida. Chantal weakened rapidly to a 60 mph (50 kt) tropical storm, before re-intensifying to a hurricane before landfall in Georgia. Chantal brought 10 inches of rain and a 5-foot storm surge, damaging houses on the coastline. Chantal weakened over land, transitioning into an extra-tropical low on August 16.

Hurricane Dorian
On August 27, a tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa and trekked to the west. Due to a favorable MDR, the low began to gain convection as a defined center was developing. On August 30, the National Hurricane Center began to issue advisories for Tropical Depression Four. Four failed to intensify further as upper-level winds and moderate shear limited further development. Just over a day of being a tropical depression, the system became Tropical Storm Dorian. However, Dorian would remain as a tropical storm before weakening to a tropical depression again. For the next 36 hours, Tropical Depression Dorian remained a tropical depression, before re-intensifying to a tropical storm again. Dorian traversed then to the northwest, and underwent a convection burst, later being upgraded to a hurricane northeast of the Leeward Islands. Dorian continued to intensify and later became a Category 2 hurricane a day after being a hurricane. Dorian developed a well-constructed eye, as it was later upgraded to a major hurricane, the second of the season. Dorian peaked as a strong 125 mph (110 kt) Category 3 hurricane. Dorian developed a clear eye as it began to weaken, thus the eye began to become less clear and constructed. Dorian further weakened to a Category 2 hurricane, as it encountered colder waters. Dorian became less organized as it weakened moderately as it traversed to the northeast. Dorian weakened further to a tropical storm, beginning to undergo an extra-tropical transition. On September 14, after fifteen days of existence, Dorian transitioned into an extra-tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Erin
During the afternoon hours on September 5, a tropical wave developed in the Cape Verde Islands. Chances for development were relatively high, thus, the National Hurricane Center gave this system a 70% chance of development in the next 5 days. The low trekked to the west, as it was gaining convection. The National Hurricane Center dubbed this system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, as chances for development into a tropical cyclone were 90%. On August 7, the National Hurricane Center upgraded the potential cyclone to Tropical Depression Five. Five accelerated as it did not strengthen despite ocean waters at 29°C (84.2°F). Just a day over it became designated, it intensified to become Tropical Storm Erin. Erin slowly intensified as it began to develop a well-organized center. A NOAA Reconnaissance flew into Erin, and observed flight-level winds of 60 kt (70 mph), as the surface-level winds were around 50 mph (45 kt). Erin maintained 50 mph winds for a while, before strengthening to a 65 mph tropical storm. However, Erin weakened rapidly to a tropical depression, as the overall organization was rapidly deteriorating. On September 12, Erin degenerated into a trough of low pressure.

Tropical Storm Fernand
On September 19, an area of low pressure developed in the western Caribbean Sea. The low traversed to the northwest. The low was slowly gaining convection and organization as it neared Belize. The low passed over Belize, bringing 4 inches of rain, causing small mudslides. 2 died and 562,000 dollars (2025 USD) of damage were recorded. When this low passed over the Gulf of Mexico, it underwent a convection burst and rapidly organized, and was upgraded to Tropical Depression Seven. Seven slowly organized and became Tropical Storm Fernand. Fernand intensified to a 50 mph (45 kt) storm just before landfall in Mexico. Fernand brought 24 inches of rain, triggering many landslides. Death counts from the Mexico government were 163, as injuries were almost up to 1,000. Fernand rapidly deteriorated over Mexico, dissipating the day of landfall.