User blog:CycloneRyne94/Don in JUNE?

Well folks, It looks as though there is the Chance that we could see Don in JUNE..

It's a bit sudden, yeah, i think so too.

As you would imagine, this something that is being hinted at by, at the moment, the GFS Model.

Now Sure, it COULD be some kind of a 'Ghost Low', especially since it seems no other model currently show it.. but there are things in play that seem to perhaps solidify it some..

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First

-- I hear of people on the Wiki say that anything indicated on models (Particularly GFS) as being 240+ hours out is simply too unbelievable/unreliable, as.. well.. it could be wrong, then again, it could also be right..

But the currently indicated model has it slated to appear by the 25th/26th.. or by about 120 hours out.. which i believe might make it more believable/reliable since it is sooner than 240+ hours..

I dont know if it IS a Ghost low or not, even as other models dont show it, but being how soon it seems to show up.. hey, maybe it HAS some credence to it.

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Second

-- Whatever this low might be, has been appearing AND perhaps solidifying over the last.. i cant remember exactly, but i certainly recall at least Four or Five GFS model runs in the last day alone.

And that's what get me.. do 'Ghost Lows' usually show up over many consecutive model runs and perhaps look more Prominent by a certain point?

I feel If it continues to show up in upcoming GFS Model runs and even starts showing up in others, then maybe we have something truly happening here.

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Third

-- Lately the GFS has been showing this Potential low slowly becoming more Prominent, with the latest run (06Z I think?) showing a 999 Mbar low around the Cape/Cabo Verde islands by the 26th/27th.. with a pretty robust looking wind-field AND yellow at the center.

Of Course, at 999 MBar, you could easily put a peak of 45 to 60 mph on something like this.

Now, it is only within the last 2 or 3 of these model runs that it has been depicted as a 999 MBAR low.. and im not saying it will.. but if this possible low, not only keeps showing up but also starts showing up more Prominently/Stronger than before (IE: If it drops below 999 MBAR).. idk, who knows?

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One Problem?

- Weather it does come to fruition or not is one thing, but there seems to be at least one possible obstacle in play.

Being Late June, no doubt the MDR (Main Development Region) IS going to be on the Cool Side and/or experience maybe some minor/temporary cooling.. especially around the CV islands..

As Bobnekaro seems to suggest, IF there really IS some kind of cooling going on, even if it is primarily around the CV Islands, i doubt it is a worry since we are only in late June and will probably see (hopefully) a temporary cooling of the MDR as we end June and go into the first half of July.. i would imagine it should start warming up again or will have done so by Mid July and later as we go into the more exciting part of the Season.

That being said, no matter what happens, there may very well be a fairly decent amount of warm water around the CV Islands, should anything happen.

Im not exactly sure what the Upper-Level Conditions will be like.

But im sure you would all agree that this might be something to watch out for as we come to the end of June and start going into July.

CycloneRyne94 (talk) 07:09, June 22, 2017 (UTC)