User blog:Bobnekaro/Polar Storm NOEL has formed east of Russia

'''You may have seen a post of mine about Polar Cyclone Noel reaching Catastrophic status. That was a mistake on my part, that should have said Merry. I have re-analyzed Merry and have already downgraded it to a 145 mph C4. But this could be our first real Catastrophic Polar Cyclone of the year!'''

POLAR STORM NOEL was named by the BNWC Thursday evening, when a BNWC cyclone hunters aircraft identified a wind speed of 45 mph at the center of the storm. Noel is expected to slowly intensify tomorrow (with most models bringing it to polar cyclone status by tomorrow evening), before rapid intensification takes hold on Saturday - we expect Noel to peak as a 160 mph catastrophic (category 5-equivalent) polar cyclone. However, this may be conservative, as some models forecast Noel to get down to 924 mbar - which could indicate Noel reaching 165-175 mph status. What's unusual about Noel is its forecast landfall in Alaska, as current intensity trends have it reaching central Alaska as an intense (category 3-equivalent) polar cyclone. Noel is not expected to impact the North Pole, however, due to its landfall in Alaska.

We will continue to track this storm as we get more updates! The next advisory will be tomorrow afternoon.