User blog:HurricanePatricia2015/WSC's TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES

TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 HURRICANEPATRICIA2015 (WSC), BIRMINGHAM, UK AL122015 1500 UTC TUES NOVEMBER 10 2015 ...   AN AIRCRAFT RECON IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM KATE AS THIS DISCUSSION IS BEING WRITTEN…AND KATE MAY BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE NEXT ADVISORY AS IT DRIFTS QUICKILY NORTHEASTWARD…OR 035/18. AIRCRAFT RECON HAS SO FAR RECORDED 61KT WINDS AT THE 700MB LEVEL…ROUGHLY 60KT…70MPH…AT THE SURFACE…WHICH PLACES KATE JUST BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY. THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS JUST RECORDED 15-20 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST…WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO PENETRATE THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TRIGGERING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 60HR. ...   KATE CERTAINLY DOES SEEM TO BE VERY WELL ORGANISED WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION EMBEDDED UNDERNEATH A SMALL CDO FEATURE. I AM GOING TO SAY AT THIS TIME THAT KATE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP AN EYE…AND ONCE IT DOES SO WILL BECOME A HURRICANE. I SHALL RE-ITERATE ON THE NHC ADVISORY…TO SAY THAT KATE WILL BE THE DOMINENT SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC FOR THE REST OF THE 120 HOUR FORCAST PERIOD. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF KATE OVER THE COMNIG DAYS…ESPECIALLY IN BERMUDA AS THE HURRICANE WILL PASS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. ...   MY FORECAST LIES PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GFDL FORECAST MODEL FOR THE FIRST 96 HOURS…THEN COMES INTO SYNC WITH THE HWRF FORECAST MODEL…CALLING FOR KATE TO BE A 25KT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE 120 HOUR FORECAST SLOT. HOWEVER…IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF KATE MANAGES TO OUT-DO THE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME…DUE MAINLY TO THE FACT THAT SHE IS COPING WELL WITH THE SHEAR AND IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY. HOWEVER…JUST HOW STRONG KATE DOES GET DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKILY SHE CAN FORM A MORE SECURELY SEALED EYEWALL. ONCE OUT OF THE 48 HOUR SLOT KATE WILL BE BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION…YET IT WILL BECOME POST TROPICAL FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS BEFORE THIS SURMISES. ...   FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 30.2N 74.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 32.5N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 35.3N 64.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 37.8N 56.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 40.5N 51.8W 95 KT 110MPH 72H 13/1200Z 42.0N 47.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP 96H 14/1200Z 47.0N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/1200Z 55.5N 22.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP