User blog:Hurricane Layten/Tropical Storm Matthew forms over the Lesser Antilles

Earlier this afternoon, the Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the tropical wave over the Leeward Islands found a closed circulation, and winds of 60mph on SFMR. This means that, as of 1600, advisories have been initiated on Matthew. Matthew is set to take a track similar to that of Hazel in 1965. The forecast intensity is somewhat conservative though, in my opinion, stating it will become a hurricane by Friday, and be at 90 kt by Monday next week.

Id say that Matthew is likely to become at least a category 4 hurricane at peak intensity and may even reach this intensity within the next 5 days before it makes landfall in Haiti. The models seem very certain that it will be a violent hurricane both in the Caribbean, and in the Atlantic before making its landfalls in the Bahamas and in North Carolina.

Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if Matthew ends the category 5 drought for the Atlantic basin, but we will see what happens. More here later as Matt develops.