Layten's Hurricane Center

LHC issuing advisories for the eastern Pacific on TS Eugene

Atlantic
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK LHC BIRMINGHAM UK 1800 UTC JULY 8 2017...CORRECTED

A tropical wave over the coast of Africa is continuing to produce disorganised showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next 5 days as the system moves west.

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0% Formation chance through 5 days...low...10%

Eastern and Central Pacific
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK LHC BIRMINGHAM UK 1800 UTC JULY 8 2017

The LHC is currently issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Eugene, currently located several hundred miles offshore the Baja California Peninsula. See below for more details on this system.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected within the next 5 days.

Western and Southern Pacific
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK LHC BIRMINGHAM UK 1800 UTC JULY 8 2017

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected within the next 5 days.

Indian Ocean
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK LHC BIRMINGHAM UK 1200 UTC JULY 8 2017

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected within the next 5 days.

Atlantic
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK LHC BIRMINGHAM UK 1800 UTC JULY 8 2017

There are currently no active tropical cyclones in this basin.

Eastern and Central Pacific
Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 5 LHC BIRMINGHAM UK 1500 UTC JULY 8 2017

The structure of Eugene has continued to improve over the last few hours, with a developing banded eye developing in the center of the cyclone. The intensity is raised to 55kt, or 65 mph for this advisory, which is a blend of satellite estimates and NHC data released not long ago. The system continues to move towards the northwest at 9 mph, and may well become a hurricane by early tomorrow morning, as indicated in the forecast below.

Eugene will be tracking into colder sea surface temperatures within the next 36 hours, but the cyclone should continue to intensify until then, and so the forecast intensity has been raised as a result of this.The shear around the system is favourable, with some dry air entrainment being noted on the northwestern side of the circulation, but once an eyewall closes off, these factors should become minor as to their effects on the system.

FORECAST REASONING
 * INITIAL:  55 KT  65 MPH
 * 12 HOURS: 65 KT  75 MPH
 * 24 HOURS: 75 KT  85 MPH
 * 36 HOURS: 70 KT  80 MPH
 * 48 HOURS: 60 KT  70 MPH
 * 72 HOURS: 45 KT  50 MPH
 * 96 HOURS: 35 KT  40 MPH...POST TROPICAL
 * 120 HOURS: 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANT LOW

Western and Southern Pacific
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK LHC BIRMINGHAM UK 1200 UTC JULY 8 2017

There are currently no active tropical cyclones in this basin.

Indian Ocean
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK LHC BIRMINGHAM UK 1200 UTC JULY 8 2017

There are currently no active tropical cyclones in this basin.