User blog:Hurricane Layten/Serious records waiting with Pali

Hi guys, just an update on Pali here, which is set to break many more records over the next few days.

Pali, currently at latitude 7.9N, 173.3W, is at 65mph. The CPHC are extremely unconfident about Pali's intensity forecast, and some spread is showing in the models, with the CMC keeping Pali as a tropical storm, before weakening to a depression as she moves for the equator, which at the moment is a very unlikely scenario.

The GFS shows Pali becoming a category 3 major hurricane before drifting erratically as she nears the international dateline over the next few days, which seems like a more likely scenario out of all the models tracking the near-hurricane.

The HWRF model also seems like a highly likely scenario, taking Pali to minimal category 4 intensity, before drifting erratically and weakening due to increasing shear and upwelling of cooler waters.

The most aggressive of the models, however is the most shocking of them all, with the GFDL model currently taking Pali to a moderate category 4 major hurricane at latitudes of 3N, and surviving as a hurricane throughout the forecast period as a hurricane, eventually crossing the International Dateline as a category 1 hurricane.

Guys, I know this seems like an incredible feat for a January tropical cyclone, especially in the Central Pacific Ocean, but let me just say, if Pali can attain as well enough organized inner core as the models are predicting, then category 4 hurricane strength certainly isn't out of the question, perhaps category 5 could even be in the equation, and if it is, then there's even more records then we are thinking ready to be broken by this incredible storm as it intensifies.

Once again, I will point out the fact that the CPHC has a very low confidence in both the intensity and track forecasts, and anything could happen as Pali faces favourable conditions over the coming days, and major hurricane status certainly isn't out of the question with this cyclone, which is embedded within an equatorial monsoonal trough, which do typically provide favourable conditions for tropical cyclones to intensify under.

I'll try to keep you up to date as the developing weather situation develops in the Central Pacific over the coming days