User blog:Hurricane Layten/HMON becomes operational

Well, today is certainly another one for the NHC, as the HMON (Hurricanes in a Multiscaled Ocean coupled Non hydrostatic model) becomes fully operational for the first time. This model is the replacement of the old GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model), which has been retired as part of an effort to improve hurricane forecasting. As expected, the HMON will be an updated version of the GFDL, equipped with the latest data sets, modelling capabilities, and understandings of the weather.

The HMON is also being used, as expected, for the Eastern Pacific, where the model began running for Tropical Depression Two-E, and is currently looking to already be the best performer for the latest model runs.

Whilst I am here, I may as well talk about Two-E now its been mentioned. The tropical depression is expected to make landfall later today, and could potentially regenerate once it reaches the favourable conditions in the Bay of Campeche, where the HWRF has a 65 mph tropical storm making landfall in Texas, and the GFS and its ensembles take a 45-50 mph tropical storm towards the Florida Panhandle region within the next 5 days or so. I guess we will see what happens, as afterall, it is now hurricane season, and given the fact that the Gulf could actually support tropical development at the moment as shear over the area begins to lessen in response to a trough forming over the Gulf coast, and forcing the system causing the shear up the East Coast.