User blog:Hurricane Layten/Tropical Disturbance 90L active...

oh dear...it looks as though a tropical disturbance ahs developed off the Bahamas. It currently has a low chance... 10% of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days or so. -- At the present time, though, convection seems to be very scattered and disorganized, but if it can organize...Ryne...you said a few weeks back that we might see a pre-season storm...I think if this does develop, then we've bagged it. -- Looking at the system, id say there is a very low chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours...but my own forecast would indicate a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days, and a medium...30% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next week, off the Eastern coast of the US. -- As for the Pacific, there are no systems worth mentioning in the Eastern region at present, although I am expecting a low pressure area to develop off the Mexican coast within the next few days. The west pacific looks set to kick off, though. Tropical Storm Noul is forecast to deepen into a category 4 borderline super typhoon whilst approaching the Philippines later on this week...I have a bad feeling about this one. Also, another area of low pressure is under scrutiny by the JTWC, and I reckon this could become the second super typhoon, or third if Noul follows my forecast, super typhoon of the 2015 pacific typhoon season. -- Ill be back when more when conditions warrant --- wsc