User blog:Hurricane Layten/Eyes on the Tropics: July 9, 2017

Okay, I'm going to get straight into today's post by saying that Eugene has become a hurricane, and that the tropical wave currently coming off Africa could end up being a huge concern in the near future. But let's work up to that.

Hurricane Eugene, which I upgraded last night at 2100 UTC, is now a category 2 hurricane, and could squeeze out category 3 strength before it begins to weaken due to dry air entrainment and cooler sea surface temperatures. The hurricane is currently located over 28-29C waters, and in a low shear environment, which has enabled the system to rapidly intensify over the last 24 hours, from teh 50 mph system I had at this time yesterday to the 105 mph system I am now calling it.

Now, onto the Atlantic, where there are two areas to discuss. Firstly, the remains of Tropical Depression Four are producing disorganised shower and thunderstorm activity over what appeared to be a developing low level circulation on this mornings ASCAT pass. Whilst it is unlikely the system will be able to regenerate, it certainly bears watching as it heads into a more favourable environment consisting of very warm waters, and low shear, which are typically favourable for tropical cyclone development.

Now, onto the other system, which has had everyone's attention over the last few days, and with reason, I feel. The tropical wave that was first picked up by the GFS over central Africa nearly a week ago emerged off the coast of Africa last night, and has now begun it's trek to the west, as most tropical waves do. However, over the last few days, modelling has been picking up on this system, and whilst it does occasionally fluctuate in intensity, the system takes a very concerning path through the Caribbean into either the Gulf of Mexico, or the southwestern Atlantic, which is a huge concern, particularly when the GFS shows a major hurricane tearing through the Caribbean Sea and making several landfalls as a hurricane. Either way, the message is clear - when this thing does form, people along the projected path need to keep a close eye on it's progress, and if you end up under a tropical cyclone warning, you need to take your precautions immediately.

Anyway, I'll have more here tomorrow, ad on my forecast page later today when I get home. But until then, pay close attention to the tropical wave off Africa, as a tropical cyclone is probably on its way at some point in the near future.