User blog:Bobnekaro/Polar Depression Four forms in the southeastern Baffin Bay, expected to strengthen

By Bob Nekaro, BNWC Chief Meteorologist

Polar Depression Four (04N) has developed in the southeastern Baffin Bay. Recent scatterometer passes have shown winds to near polar storm force. The polar depression continues to get better organized - Dvorak Estimates from BNWC were P2.5 at 00:00 UTC, which will likely result in the depression being upgraded to Polar Storm "Carol" at 11:00 PM EDT tonight.

Forecast for Four
Four is currently located in an environment characterized by adequate moisture and low wind shear (5-10 knots), which favors steady strengthening. However, sea surface temperatures are only marginal for significant intensification, and this may limit any extreme intensification. Nonetheless, the BNWC calls for Four to strengthen into a moderate Polar Cyclone by the middle of next week when it gets deeper into the Baffin Bay. By the time the cyclone enters the Baffin Bay, wind shear may briefly increase a bit, which could arrest the intensification process or even cause a little weakening. It is still unsure about the cyclone's future when it reaches the northwestern Baffin Bay. Four, or Carol assuming it is named, is likely to remain a cyclone for at least a week.

Other Systems of Note
The Arctic Cyclone Season officially begins November 1, but we've already seen four total polar systems before the season has officially began. There is a possibility that a polar cyclone could form behind Four/Carol towards the latter part of next week, although this remains uncertain. About 50% of the GFS ensembles and 15% of the ECMWF ensembles develop this system into a polar depression during the next week.

That's all for now!