2016 Atlantic usercane season

The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season is a current event in the Atlantic Ocean basin of usercane formation. This season runs throughout 2016. Most commonly, storms form between June and November; however, storms may form at any time of year.

The season got off to a torrid pace in January, before slowing down later. The first storm of the season, Tropical Depression One, formed on January 5th, setting a record for the earliest first storm formation date. One later intensified into Tropical Storm Destiny, which would dissipate and regenerate several times until turning extratropical on March 15. The first hurricane of the season was Keranique, which acquired hurricane intensity on February 1. Keranique and Bittersweet both attained major hurricane intensity on March 2, the latter of which would make a destructive landfall as an extratropical cyclone. Bittersweet so far has been the costliest storm of the season.

'''All HHW users that join in 2016 and make at least 5 edits will be in this season. '''If they have at least 10 edits, they will become a "named storm".

Pre-Season Forecasts
In late December 2015, pre-season forecasts began to be issued for the 2016 Atlantic hurricane HHW user season. The first agency to predict was the Bob Nekaro Weather Center, which forecast 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes on December 31, a less active season than 2015, mainly due to increased dry air prohibiting development of strong storms. Three days later, four additional weather agencies made 2016 predictions, all predicting an above-average season. The NKWC predicted 24 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, also citing increased dry air but lower wind shear in their prediction. The HTMC followed, predicting 28 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, yet again citing similar conditions forecast to be present during the 2016 season. The HOWC then made a surprising prediction of 34 named storms, 21 hurricanes and 9 major hurricanes, a prediction based off minimal wind shear and dry air. The CDMC also made a prediction, predicting 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. The next day the SMWC came in with a prediction of 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. In total, nearly all of the forecasts predict an above-average season due to the La Nina expected to be present.

Tropical Outlook
For Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki:

Active Cyclones:

Major Hurricane KERANIQUE:

Maximum sustained winds: 120 mph, minimum pressure: 947 mbar

Hurricane Keranique continues to slowly intensify to the west of Cape Verde. This forecast trajectory is mostly the same as the previous one, with category 4 intensity predicted late in the forecast period.

Late Apr 2016 - 125 MPH

Mid May 2016 - 125 MPH

Late May 2016 - 130 MPH

Late June 2016 - 140 MPH

Late July 2016 - 145 MPH

Hurricane DARREN:

Maximum sustained winds: 100 mph, minimum pressure: 974 mbar

Hurricane DARREN's intensification rate has stalled. Its winds have been held at 100 mph and its pressure weakened a tad. Steady intensification is still expected during the forecast period, with a chance of Darren becoming a major hurricane late in the forecast period.

Mid Apr 2016 - 105 MPH

Late Apr 2016 - 110 MPH

Late May 2016 - 115 MPH

Late June 2016 - 115 MPH

Late July 2016 - 120 MPH

Tropical Depression PEARL:

Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph, minimum pressure: 1005 mbar

Tropical Storm Pearl has weakened to a tropical depression. We now expect Pearl to dissipate in the middle of the forecast period.

Late Apr 2016 - 30 MPH

Mid May 2016 - 30 MPH

Late May 2016 - 25 MPH

Late June 2016 - DISSIPATED

Subtropical Depression CALLUM:

Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph, minimum pressure: 1004 mbar

Callum has weakened back into a subtropical depression. No change in intensity is expected during the forecast period.

Late Apr 2016 - 35 MPH/SUBTROPICAL

Mid May 2016 - 35 MPH/SUBTROPICAL

Late May 2016 - 35 MPH/SUBTROPICAL

Late June 2016 - 35 MPH/SUBTROPICAL

Late July 2016 - 35 MPH/SUBTROPICAL

Tropical Depression DAVID:

Maximum sustained winds: 30 mph, minimum pressure: 1011 mbar

Tropical Storm David has weakened to a weak tropical depression, and intensification is no longer expected. This will likely be the last advisory on David unless convection improves, as no convection has existed with David in the past few days.

Late Apr 2016 - 25 MPH/DISSIPATED

Tropical Depression FOURTEEN:

Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph, minimum pressure: 1008 mbar

A tropical depression has formed to the north of Hurricane Darren, located near Bermuda. We expect this depression to change little in intensity over the coming months.

Late April 2016 - 40 MPH

Mid May 2016 - 35 MPH

Late May 2016 - 35 MPH

Late June 2016 - 30 MPH

Late July 2016 - DISSIPATED

Tropical Storm CHRIS:

Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph, minimum pressure: 1006 mbar

A new tropical storm has developed east of Cape Verde. It is still unknown if this system is connected to another usercane, but it has been classified for now. We expect TS Chris to slowly intensify before weakening.

Late April 2016 - 45 MPH

Mid May 2016 - 45 MPH

Late May 2016 - 50 MPH

Late June 2016 - 45 MPH

Late July 2016 - 45 MPH

Invests:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

~FORECASTER BOB (BNWC) (Updated April 16, 2016 - 11:00 PM EDT)

Classification
Category 5 hurricane: An active and unbanned HHW bureaucrat.

Category 4 hurricane: An active and unbanned HHW administrator.

Category 3 hurricane: An active and unbanned HHW junior administrator.

Category 2 hurricane: An active and unbanned HHW Chat Moderator with rollback rights.

Category 1 hurricane: An active and unbanned HHW Chat Moderator without rollback rights.

Tropical Storm: An active HHW user with at least 10 edits without user rights. An autopatrolled user falls at the upper end of this category usually.

Tropical Depression: A new HHW user with at least 5 edits, OR an inactive HHW user that has never had user rights.

Subtropical Storm: An active HHW user that previously had user rights and has been demoted from a position of power, OR A returning retired HHW user that previously had user rights.

Subtropical Depression: A user that meats the criteria for a tropical depression, but retired and returned with less than 10 edits. (Very rare) (Example: A user that had 6 edits returns after a year of not editing, then they are a subtropical depression)

Invest: A user with 4 or fewer edits, or a user with no edits that appears in chat.

Season Summary
Numerous storms that formed in 2015 or earlier were active at the start of 2016: Major hurricanes included Hurricane Hype, Hurricane Nkechinyer, Hurricane Michelle, Hurricane Bob, Hurricane Ryne, Hurricane Layten Hurricane Floyd, Hurricane Jack and Hurricane Marcus. There were also several non-major hurricanes as well as tropical storms.

January
The season got off to an exceptionally early start, with Tropical Depression One developing on January 5. One quickly intensified into Tropical Storm Destiny. Destiny would peak as a 45 mph tropical storm, before degenerating into a remnant low in late January. Tropical Depression Two formed the following week, which would eventually slowly develop into Hurricane Bittersweet. On January 15, a weak and disorganized Tropical Storm Yolo formed near the Cape Verde Islands.

A trio of tropical storms formed the next day, Nuno, RAM and Keranique. Nuno rapidly dissipated two days later, and RAM dissipated 6 days later. Keranique, however, began to intensify, becoming the strongest storm of the season by late January. On January 30, another weak tropical storm, Matthew, developed southeast of Cape Verde, but struggled to intensify amongst dry air.

February
On February 1, Keranique was upgraded into a category 1 hurricane - effectively becoming the first hurricane of the season. Three days later, Bittersweet intensified into a category 1 storm, becoming the second hurricane of the season. In addition, Keranique was upgraded to a category 2 storm as it remained in a favorable environment. February did not feature as much activity as January due to increased wind shear and drier air than the previous month.

Nonetheless, on February 12, Tropical Depression Ten developed from an upper-level low northeast of the Bahamas. Ten would later intensify into Tropical Storm Darren. On February 15, Bittersweet was upgraded to a category 2 hurricane. On February 19, Tropical Depression Eleven developed southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

March
March began with the unexpected regeneration of Nuno into a subtropical storm on March 1, south of the Azores. On March 2, both Hurricanes Bittersweet and Keranique intensified into category 3 major hurricanes - becoming the first two major hurricanes of the season. On March 4, Tropical Storm Darren intensified into a category 1 hurricane. Tropical quietude continued throughout March as high wind shear and low sea surface temperatures dominated. On March 15, Tropical Storm Destiny turned into an extratropical cyclone as it begun to track northward. On March 31, just one day after weakening to a tropical storm, Bittersweet turned extratropical. March passed without any new cyclones forming throughout the entire month. The inactivity in March was likely a result of strong wind shear and a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, which peaked in the third week of the month.

April
On April 3, the extratropical remnants of Bittersweet made landfall near Newfoundland. The storm caused significant damage, and was re-assessed in post-analysis to have caused over $1 billion in damage. The +NAO pattern that dominated in March began to ease, allowing a more favorable environment for usercane development. Also on April 3, Tropical Depression Twelve formed from an invest that had actually formed in February, becoming a tropical storm hours later and receiving the name "Pearl". On April 9, Tropical Depression Thirteen formed east of Cape Verde, later developing into Tropical Storm David. On April 17, Tropical Depression Fourteen formed near Bermuda, followed by Tropical Depression Fifteen just the next day east of Cape Verde.

Tropical Storm Destiny (UniversalSolo)
On January 5, a tropical wave rapidly developed in the southern Caribbean. Later that evening, advisories were initiated for Tropical Depression One. Amid low wind shear and warm water temperatures, TD One intensified into TS Destiny less than 30 minutes later as part of a special advisory. The next day, Destiny changed little in intensity. Operationally, Destiny was expected to have peaked in intensity at 45 mph (40 knots), however, post-analysis confirms that Destiny did reach 50 mph winds at one advisory. Destiny would fluctuate in intensity over the next several weeks, regenerating and dissipating several times. On February 23, Destiny acquired tropical storm intensity for the first time in nearly a month. On February 29, Destiny once again weakened to a tropical depression. On March 15, the depression had completed its extratropical transition east of the Bahamas, and began to turn northward with a slight chance of regeneration.

Hurricane Bittersweet (A Bittersweet Journey)
On January 8, a non-tropical low near Bermuda began to be monitored for possible tropical cyclogenesis. On January 13, it organized itself into Tropical Depression Two. Due to only marginally sufficient sea surface temperatures, Two was not initially expected to intensify beyond tropical storm status. Nonetheless, Two intensified to Tropical Storm "Bittersweet" in a special advisory in January 21. Bittersweet would further intensify to 45 mph shortly afterward. Due to a sudden lack of wind shear and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures, Bittersweet began to intensify in late January. On February 4, Bittersweet intensified into a category 1 hurricane. 11 days later on February 15, Bittersweet was upgraded to a category 2 storm. On February 29, in a favorable environment, Bittersweet intensified to 110 mph as the hurricane's core became increasingly well organized. On March 2, Bittersweet intensified into a category 3 major hurricane, the first of the season. Due to cooling sea surface temperatures, intensification has been limited since. On March 30, Bittersweet rapidly weakened to a tropical storm due to increasing wind shear from nearby storms. On March 31, Bittersweet transitioned to an extratropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Yolo (Heythereyolo123123123)
On January 15, a westward-moving tropical wave developed into Tropical Depression Three about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Late that evening, the system became considerably more well-defined, and eventually intensified into Tropical Storm Yolo. However, interaction with the Saharan Air Layer and moderate wind shear caused the system to degenerate into a remnant low the next day. On January 29, Yolo re-intensified back to a tropical storm. However, the storm accelerated westward and made landfall in Northern South America, peaking as a 45 mph disorganized tropical storm. Yolo wrought moderate damage to South America, causing an estimated $100 million in damage. Due to the Brown Ocean Effect, Yolo nearly regenerated several times before becoming a very weak remnant low. Moving back into the Caribbean, Yolo began to regain tropical characteristics. The weak and extremely disorganized cyclone regenerated into a tropical depression on two separate occasions, on March 3 and March 30.

Tropical Depression Four (HurricaneHistory)
On January 3, the BNWC began monitoring a tropical wave located off the coast of West Africa. The wave briefly acquired tropical depression intensity on January 5, but was not operationally classified due to an apparent lack of a closed circulation. However, it degenerated into a remnant trough the next day. Due to dry air, the wave struggled to re-develop. However, on January 15, the low formed into Tropical Depression Four. It eventually degenerated into a trough of low pressure later that evening. As of March 15, the remnants of TD Four pulled back together and have a chance of regeneration by May.

Post-Analysis
In post-season analysis, it was discovered that Four actually was a weak 25 mph tropical depression for 24 hours beginning on January 5 and ending on January 6. Operationally, Four did not form until January 15, however. Its peak winds were also lowered from 35 to 30 mph, due to the fact that peak winds observed were in the 30-31 mph range.

Tropical Storm RAM (RAMTurtle)
In mid-January, a series of tropical waves rapidly developed west of Africa. One of them, the southernmost one, developed a closed circulation on January 15 and became Tropical Depression Five. Five would later strengthen into Tropical Storm RAM. However, dry air and entrainment from the Saharan Air Layer caused RAM to rapidly weaken to a tropical depression by later that week. On January 22, RAM dissipated.

Tropical Storm Nuno (NunoLava1998)
In mid-January, a tropical wave split into two portions. The southern portion developed into Hurricane Keranique. The northern portion, however, took its own track, developing into Tropical Depression Six and eventually Tropical Storm Nuno on January 16. Nuno acquired peak winds of 40 mph before degenerating into a remnant low on January 18. The remnants of Nuno would remain weak for over a month before pulling itself together into a subtropical storm south of the Azores on March 1. Several days later, Nuno weakened into a subtropical depression. Nuno then transitioned back into a non-tropical trough of low pressure.

Hurricane Keranique (AGirlCalledKeranique)
The origins of Hurricane Keranique were traced back to a tropical wave that developed over central Africa on December 22, the northern portion of which would produce Tropical Storm Nuno. Moving very slowly over land, the wave became Tropical Depression Seven on January 16 while located southeast of Cape Verde. Seven was rapidly upgraded to a tropical storm, receiving the name "Keranique". On February 1, Keranique intensified into a category 1 hurricane. Just a few days later, Keranique intensified into a category 2 hurricane located south-southwest of Cape Verde. On March 2, Keranique intensified into a category 3 major hurricane, the second of the season. Since, Keranique has steadily intensified, and remains the strongest storm of the season to date.

Tropical Storm Matthew (NY WX)
In late January, a tropical storm formed just east of Cape Verde. It developed from Tropical Depression Eight, and was named "Matthew". Matthew then dissipated on February 2 after failing to intensify beyond minimal tropical storm status.

Subtropical Storm Callum (Callum Fawsitt)
In early January, the BNWC began monitoring a non-tropical low near Bermuda, for possible tropical or subtropical cyclogenesis. Conditions were initially unfavorable for development. Nonetheless, the low became Subtropical Storm Callum on February 4. Callum has continued to meander around the central Atlantic as a weak subtropical storm for over a month. In mid-March, Callum weakened to a subtropical depression. On April 8, Callum re-intensified back into a subtropical storm.

Hurricane Darren (DarrenDude)
On February 12, a new tropical depression formed northeast of the Bahamas. The next day it intensified into Tropical Storm Darren. Darren would slowly intensify during the next few weeks. On March 4, Darren intensified into a category 1 hurricane. Darren is currently active, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and a minimum pressure of 976 mbar.

Tropical Depression Eleven (YogeetaALT5)
On February 14, the BNWC began monitoring a new invest east of Cape Verde. On February 19, tropical depression Eleven formed about 100 miles southwest of Cape Verde. Shortly after forming, Eleven began to weaken as it turned northwestward. On March 29, Eleven dissipated, becoming the second storm of the season to not strengthen past tropical depression intensity. The extratropical remnants of Eleven made landfall in Africa, causing minimal damage.

Tropical Storm Pearl (Bluepearl6660)
On February 20, a tropical wave began to move off the coast of Africa. Moving very slowly, the wave struggled to intensify due to dry air. Nonetheless, on April 3, the wave developed into Tropical Depression Twelve, intensifying to Tropical Storm Pearl hours later, becoming the first storm in over 6 weeks to form.

Tropical Storm David (Wafflemaster135)
Around 18:00 UTC April 9, a tropical wave was noted about 250 miles east of Cape Verde Islands. The next day, it intensified into Tropical Depression Thirteen at 00:00 UTC on April 10. A few hours later, Thirteen intensified into Tropical Storm David. Struggling to intensify amongst the Saharan Air Layer, David weakened to a Tropical Depression on April 16 in its possible final advisory.

Disputed Storms
Some of the storms in this season were not classified by most weather centers, but were recognized by the HOWC.

Tropical Depression Twelve (Karl Kaapstad)
As part of post-season analysis, the HOWC identified a possible tropical depression that existed on March 1 and 2, which could have been Tropical Depression Twelve. This depression is thought to have developed from a merger between the weak remnants of Hurricane Nkechinyer and a tropical wave. However, the BNWC and FMC do not recognize this storm; they view it as the remnants of Hurricane Nkechinyer.

Tropical Storm Pug (1789 Pug)
On March 23, a tropical wave formed over Africa. It rapidly developed into a tropical depression over land. On March 24, the system briefly acquired tropical storm status and would have been named "Pug", according to the HOWC. Late that afternoon, Pug dissipated. It is believed by the BNWC and FMC that Pug is associated with the remnants of Hurricane Douglas from 2014.

Names used
Names will be based off the new user's username or real name. There is no set naming list for this season.