Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki:Chat/Logs/25 February 2017

 [08:15]  Isaias was expected to be a caribbean major. [08:15]  and..... [08:15]  [img="vignette4.wikia.nocookie.net/hypotheticalhurricanes/images/c/c6/Isaias_2020_Track_MG.png/revision/latest?cb=20170225154627"] [08:15]  :P [08:16]  Nice job models :3 [08:16]  even a hyperactive season like 2020 has fails [08:16]  :P [08:16]  :p [08:16]  *cough* Lee 2005 *cough* [08:16]  hey PFM [08:16]  PFM, will Arlene form? :3 [08:16]  Yes. :3 [08:16]  [img="vignette3.wikia.nocookie.net/hypotheticalhurricanes/images/e/e1/Paulette_2020_Track_MG.png/revision/latest?cb=20170225163653"] [08:16]  Will it be before June 1? [08:17]  Maybe. @Bob [08:17] <MasterGarfield> Paulette pls [08:17] <MasterGarfield> :P [08:17] <Bobnekaro> Could it be April? @PFM [08:17] <MasterGarfield> [small] foreshadowing to 2026 [08:17] <MasterGarfield> :P [08:17] <PassionFruitMaster> Unlikely. @Bob [08:17] <Bobnekaro> What month would you say is more likely for Arlene's formation, May or June? [08:17] <Bobnekaro> @PFM [08:17] <PassionFruitMaster> May. @Bob [08:17] <Bobnekaro> :O [08:17] <MasterGarfield> oh hey, I just remembered something [08:17] <MasterGarfield> :P [08:17] <Brickcraft1> PFM, are you SM's slave? [08:18] <MasterGarfield> There's a live camera in the port Akio is sailing out of [08:18] <MasterGarfield> :P [08:18] <Bobnekaro> PFM, should Atlantic hurricane season start May 15 or June 1? [08:18] <MarioProtIV> Will 2017 have a C5? @PFM [08:18] <PassionFruitMaster> Maybe. Are you Sassmaster's slave? @Brick [08:18] <PassionFruitMaster> May 15, totally. @Bob [08:18] <MarioProtIV> man-made answer ^ [08:18] <StrawberryMaster> kek [08:18] <MarioProtIV> exposed [08:18] <MarioProtIV> :3 [08:18] <Brickcraft1> I'm not allowed to tell you that- oh dammit @PFM [08:18] <StrawberryMaster> you have no proof. :3 [08:18] <MasterGarfield> if you want to watch Akio sail away i can like the camera [08:18] <MasterGarfield> :P [08:18] <MasterGarfield> *link [08:19] <Nkechinyer> @Garfield cool :P [08:19] <MasterGarfield> http://www.portcanaveralwebcam.com/ :P [08:19] <Nkechinyer> i bet you can't see him on the boat for that [08:19] <Nkechinyer> *though [08:19] <MarioProtIV> [img="vignette3.wikia.nocookie.net/hypotheticalhurricanes/images/f/ff/Ernesto2018BobNewer.png/revision/latest?cb=20170225193108"] [08:19] <MarioProtIV> kek [08:20] <Nkechinyer> LOL [08:20] <MasterGarfield> [img="vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/hypotheticalhurricanes/images/e/e4/Omar_Track_2020_MG.png/revision/latest?cb=20170225163614"] [08:20] <StrawberryMaster> 10/10 needs more applebread [08:20] <MasterGarfield> Omar pls [08:20] <MasterGarfield> :P [08:20] <MonseurRoussil1997> MC models develop a disturbance on a stationary front [08:20] <Bobnekaro> There has been a May AOI or storm in 8 OF THE LAST 10 SEASONS [08:20] <MonseurRoussil1997> ...by the 1st of march [08:20] <Bobnekaro> Of the past 10 seasons, only 2013 and 2014 did not have some sort of May AOI or storm [08:20] <Bobnekaro> why the heck isn't the second half of May Atlantic hurricane season? [08:20] <Bobnekaro> This triggers me [08:21] <MasterGarfield> [img="vignette3.wikia.nocookie.net/hypotheticalhurricanes/images/a/ad/Josephine_2020_Track_MG.png/revision/latest?cb=20170225155335"] [08:21] <MasterGarfield> lol @Bob [08:21] <MasterGarfield> :P [08:21] <Bobnekaro> #ExtendAtlanticHurricaneSeasonToMay15 [08:21] <Bobnekaro> #ExtendAtlanticHurricaneSeasonToMay15 [08:21] <Bobnekaro> #ExtendAtlanticHurricaneSeasonToMay15 [08:21] <MasterGarfield> Josephine the MDR fail. [08:21] <MasterGarfield> :P [08:21] <Bobnekaro> :p [08:21] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:21] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:21] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:21] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:21] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:21] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:21] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:21] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:21] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:21] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:21] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:21] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:21] <Bobnekaro> k den Nkech [08:21] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Bobnekaro> #ExtendAtlanticHurricaneSeasonToMay15 [08:22] <Bobnekaro> #ExtendAtlanticHurricaneSeasonToMay15 [08:22] <Bobnekaro> #ExtendAtlanticHurricaneSeasonToMay15 [08:22] <Nkechinyer> :P [08:22] <Bobnekaro> :p [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <StrawberryMaster> k den [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging#Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Nkechinyer> #Bobstophashtagging [08:22] <Bobnekaro> Why not start both the Atlantic and EPAC seasons on May 15? It's not fair [08:22] <Bobnekaro> IT NEEDS TO BE DONE NHC [08:22] <MasterGarfield> I may start remaking 2019 tracks [08:22] <MasterGarfield> :P [08:22] <Bobnekaro> :P [08:22] <StrawberryMaster> someday, they will do it @Bob :3 [08:22] <MasterGarfield> starting with Andrea which is almost identical to Alex 2010 [08:22] <MasterGarfield> :P [08:23] <Bobnekaro> PFM, will the NHC ever extend Atlantic hurricane season to May 15? :3 [08:23] <Nkechinyer> @Bob not fair? consider that the NHC didn't recognize that Tropical Cyclones formed in the East Pacific until the 1970's, then tell me whether it is "fair" [08:23] <Bobnekaro> Well that was a different time. [08:23] <Bobnekaro> PFM, answer me pls [08:23] <PassionFruitMaster> Possible. @Bob [08:24] <Bobnekaro> I want it to happen [08:24] <Bobnekaro> but when 80% of the last 10 seasons have had some sort of May storm or AOI...that's more than enough IMO [08:25] <Nkechinyer> Bob, not everything can be perfectly fair. If it was, the NHC would be communist. [08:26] <Nkechinyer> they would make everything a C3 also to be "fair" [08:26] <Nkechinyer> and that would include Matthew [08:26] <Bobnekaro> k den. [08:26] <Nkechinyer> @Bob what did the NHC tell you when you asked about it? [08:26] <Bobnekaro> That's not how TCs work [08:27] <Bobnekaro> Dear Bob, [08:27] <Bobnekaro> [08:27] <Bobnekaro> Thank you very much for writing. [08:27] <Bobnekaro> [08:27] <Bobnekaro> Please know that we’re prepared to issue advisories on tropical cyclones whenever they form, in-season or not. You might recall that Hurricane Alex formed in January (!) of 2016. So moving the official start date up to May 15th or May 1st would not affect our readiness. And the eastern Pacific hurricane season already starts on May 15th, as you pointed out, so our forecasters are on shift [08:27] <Bobnekaro> and fully prepared for anything that might arise in the Atlantic. [08:27] <Bobnekaro> [08:27] <Bobnekaro> The only advantage that moving the date up (to, say, May 15th) would provide from the customer perspective would be earlier routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Since we do issue Special TWOs when there’s something important to talk about, I’m not sure how valuable all the extra “empty” TWOs would be to users. [08:27] <Bobnekaro> [08:27] <Bobnekaro> Moving the start date of the season any earlier than May 15th would have some negative consequences. With operational shifts starting earlier, this would take forecasters away from some important outreach and education activities. Honestly, I think our users are better served by having staff continue those efforts than transitioning to operations when things are still mostly quiet. We’re always able to mobilize when something out-of-season develops, and then return to our outreach activities once an event is over. [08:27] <Bobnekaro> [08:27] <Bobnekaro> Best regards, [08:27] <Bobnekaro> [08:27] <Bobnekaro> James [08:27] <Bobnekaro> "Moving the start date of the season any earlier than May 15th would have some negative consequences." [08:27] <Bobnekaro> well move it to May 15 then [08:28] <Bobnekaro> shorten the offseason :3 [08:28] <Bobnekaro> It might not impact the NHC's readiness but it could impact the readiness of people. [08:28] <MasterGarfield> [img="vignette4.wikia.nocookie.net/hypotheticalhurricanes/images/a/ae/Andrea_2019_Track_MG.png/revision/latest?cb=20170225202815"] [08:29] <Nkechinyer> @Bob then that's why they won't shorten it [08:30] <Bobnekaro> It does not need to be shortened. It needs to be EXTENDED, to May 15. [08:30] <MasterGarfield> there's Andrea [08:30] <MasterGarfield> :P [08:30] <Bobnekaro> Hey Sassmaster [08:30] <Sassmaster15> Hi Bob [08:30] <Nkechinyer> Hi Sassmaster [08:30] <Bobnekaro> If we get another May storm this year I'm going to push for it more. [08:30] <Bobnekaro> :p [08:30] <Sassmaster15> Hi Nkech [08:30] <MasterGarfield> [img="vignette4.wikia.nocookie.net/hypotheticalhurricanes/images/a/ae/Andrea_2019_Track_MG.png/revision/latest?cb=20170225202815"] [08:30] <Bobnekaro> season used to be June 1 to October 31 at one time [08:31] <Nkechinyer> IMO, if Bob keeps bothering the NHC about it they will extend the offseason to June 15 :3 [08:31] <Bobnekaro> NKECH PLS [08:31] <Bobnekaro> They will never do that [08:31] <Nkechinyer> BOB PLS [08:31] <Nkechinyer> the NHC has better things to do [08:31] <Nkechinyer> :3 [08:31] <Bobnekaro> I need to get a job for them so I can extend the season :3 [08:31] <MasterGarfield> that would technically make Lenny a 155 mph offseason storm [08:31] <MasterGarfield> :P [08:31] <Bobnekaro> :p [08:32] <Bobnekaro> I agree with the November 30 end date [08:32] <Bobnekaro> It's the June 1 date that needs to be change [08:32] <Bobnekaro> *changed [08:33] <Nkechinyer> I should show the NHC my reanalysis of 1979 to the present and ask that they change every storm to what I have listed :3 [08:33] <Bobnekaro> k den Nkech. [08:33] <Bobnekaro> they won't do it. [08:33] <Bobnekaro> NHC rejects the requests of users. [08:33] <Nkechinyer> I'd like to see them defend everything [08:33] <Nkechinyer> :P [08:33] <Bobnekaro> :p [08:33] <MasterGarfield> :P [08:33] <Nkechinyer> @Bob like your request to shorten the offseason which you should have known would have failed. [08:33] <Nkechinyer> :P [08:34] <Bobnekaro> k den NHC. [08:34] <Bobnekaro> https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/05/12/hurricane-center-may-storms-dont-mean-hurricane-season-should-start-earlier/ [08:34] <MasterGarfield> logic [08:34] <Bobnekaro> Franklin basically said May 15 was okay to start the season. [08:34] <Bobnekaro> DO IT THEN [08:35] <Bobnekaro> :3 [08:35] <Bobnekaro> And then he goes on to say this. [08:35] <Bobnekaro> “I’m already concerned that we have our major preparedness media push too far removed from the peak of the season,” Franklin said. “Around June 1, the season opens to much fanfare, and then in most years nothing much happens until August. If the season began in early or mid-May, I’d be concerned that our preparedness message would be less effective.” [08:36] <Bobnekaro> k den Franklin. [08:36] <Bobnekaro> I now want Franklin to fail. :3 [08:36] <Bobnekaro> jk [08:36] <MasterGarfield> inb4 it actually does [08:36] <MasterGarfield> [small] again [08:36] <MasterGarfield> :P [08:37] <Bobnekaro> :p [08:37] <MasterGarfield> inb4 Franklin forms in May [08:37] <MasterGarfield> :P [08:38] <Bobnekaro> lol [08:38] <Bobnekaro> that would be hilarious if it did happen [08:38] <Bobnekaro> inb4 we get a May hurricane landfall and their pressure to extend season is high [08:39] <MasterGarfield> and then we start getting 2 may storms each year [08:39] <MasterGarfield> :P [08:39] <Bobnekaro> :p [08:39] <MasterGarfield> [small] and then a may major [08:39] <Nkechinyer> inb4 Arlene forms in November [08:39] <Bobnekaro> NKECH PLS [08:39] <Bobnekaro> you sound like the Nkech from a year ago. [08:39] <Bobnekaro> :p [08:39] <Nkechinyer> PLS [08:39] <MasterGarfield> :P [08:39] <Nkechinyer> I was joking [08:39] <Bobnekaro> IK :P [08:40] <Bobnekaro> inb4 Arlene forms in April [08:40] <Bobnekaro> (I think it could happen tbh) [08:40] <StrawberryMaster> pls, PFM said it was unlikely :3 [08:40] <Nkechinyer> inb4 Arlene forms right on top of Akio [08:40] <MasterGarfield> I wonder how active 2017 will be. [08:40] <MasterGarfield> and where the big, retired storm(s) will hit [08:41] <Bobnekaro> same [08:41] <Bobnekaro> lol @Nkech [08:41] <Nkechinyer> 2017 will be similar to 2012. [08:41] <Nkechinyer> IMO [08:41] <MasterGarfield> that would at least give us an active season [08:41] <MasterGarfield> :P [08:41] <StrawberryMaster> you're not the only one who has said that @Nkech [08:41] <StrawberryMaster> :3 [08:42] <Bobnekaro> I've never tracked a storm called Arlene before, I missed it in 2011 ;( [08:42] <Bobnekaro> one of the few storms I've ever missed. [08:42] <Bobnekaro> I tracked all of 2011's other storms though [08:42] <Nkechinyer> @Garfield guess what the strongest storm in the 1979-80 Southeast Pacific season is? [08:42] <MasterGarfield> If we had a 2012 with a C4 added in i'd take it over el nino [08:42] <Bobnekaro> ^ [08:42] <Bobnekaro> Definitely [08:43] <Nkechinyer> GARFIELD ends up being the strongest, a weak C2 [08:43] <Nkechinyer> :P [08:43] <Bobnekaro> :p [08:43] <MasterGarfield> :P [08:43] <MasterGarfield> yay [08:43] <MasterGarfield> [small] inb4 retired [08:44] <Nkechinyer> @Garfield it stays far away from land, believe me. [08:44] <Nkechinyer> I'm using ENSO data to determine the activeness of each season. [08:44] <StrawberryMaster> http://dev.wikia.com/wiki/ClassicModIcons [08:44] <StrawberryMaster> [sub]I see someone noticed we fixed the chat stars and made that a script. (lenny) [08:44] <Bobnekaro> k. [08:44] <Bobnekaro> (Brb) ) [08:44] <MasterGarfield> :P [08:45] <Nkechinyer> 1979-80 has a weak el nino so it will be slightly above average [08:45] <Nkechinyer> el nino = above average [08:46] <Nkechinyer> neutral = average [08:46] <Nkechinyer> la nina = below average [08:47] <Nkechinyer> in unrelated news that means 82-83 should be super active [08:47] <MasterGarfield> and 1992-93 [08:47] <MasterGarfield> LO [08:47] <MasterGarfield> :P [08:47] <MasterGarfield> and 2015-16 :P [08:47] <Nkechinyer> yep [08:49] <Nkechinyer> Cyclone Garfield stays far from land. [08:49] <Nkechinyer> :P [08:49] <MasterGarfield> :P [08:51] <Nkechinyer> active from February 22nd to March 3rd, 1980. [08:51] <MasterGarfield> well. [08:51] <MasterGarfield> :P [08:52] <Nkechinyer> the best contender for retirement is probably Subtropical Storm Dawn, which struck Easter Island on Christmas Day as a 60 mph Subtropical Storm. [08:52] <MarioProtIV> You know what i noticed [08:52] <Nkechinyer> what [08:52] <Sassmaster15> ? [08:53] <MarioProtIV> We had similar weather systems a year apart in the NE around this date [08:53] <MarioProtIV> in fact probably analogs [08:53] <MarioProtIV> last year it was Petros [08:53] <MarioProtIV> this year its Quid [08:54] <MarioProtIV> both produced a blizzard in Midwest and severe weather on East coast [08:54] <MarioProtIV> except Petros caused a tornado outbreak [08:57] <Nkechinyer> brb [08:57] <Sassmaster15> k