2015-16 Arctic Cyclone Season

'''This is a holiday-themed season similar to Steve's "2013-14 North Pole Hurricane Season". However, since Steve is gone, I have decided to do one this year. I know it's not the holiday season yet, but it will be soon. This will be an as-it-unfolds season with frequent updates coming to this page between now and the week after Christmas.'''

The 2015-16 Arctic Cyclone Season is an ongoing event in the Arctic Ocean basin. The season will officially begin on November 1 and end on January 7, dates that typically delimit the start and end of the season. However, Polar Storm Angel formed nearly 4 weeks before the season officially begins on October 5. Angel later intensified into a Polar Cyclone, becoming the second-earliest polar cyclone on record. Another pre-season storm, Polar Storm Bell, formed on October 16, which was the earliest second named storm in the basin. Bell later became the strongest cyclone in the basin, by pressure.

Storm formation can also occur outside of the designated dates. The most common time for storms to form, though, is from mid-to-late December.

Storms, even tropical cyclones, can cross from other basins into the Arctic basin. Should this happen, the storm would keep their original name. These types of storms are more common early in the season. The Arctic basin begins at 55 degrees north latitude, and this is where all storms are assigned an Arctic name.

Pre-Season Forecasts
Due to mixed reports on what conditions would exist in the Arctic Ocean, no predictions were issued for this season until late. The BNWC originally said that there was a near equal chance in a below-normal, near-normal, and above-normal season. Average activity in the basin has roughly 15 named storms, 8 polar cyclones, and 3 major cyclones, with roughly two to four storms making landfall in the north pole. However, on October 12, 2015, the BNWC announced their 2015-16 forecast of 18 named storms, 10 polar cyclones and 5 major cyclones, a slightly above-average season. Two more forecasts were released in mid-October: the FMC announced a prediction of 17.3 named storms, 7.8 polar cyclones and 3.0 major polar cyclones on October 17. Later, on October 18, the LJWC made their prediction of 15 named storms, 8 polar cyclones and 4 major polar cyclones.

The BNWC later revised their original prediction on October 21 by predicting 20-24 named storms, 10-12 polar cyclones and 5-7 major cyclones, due to the early formation of Polar Cyclones Angel and Bell, which would be a near record-breaking season in activity.

If you still want to make a pre-season prediction, make it here!

October
The season had a very early start. On October 4, the first invest of the season formed, Invest 90N, and was first listed with 15 mph winds. The system then intensified into Polar Storm Angel on October 5. Angel later acquired hurricane-force winds on October 7, prompting an upgrade to Weak Polar Cyclone status. Angel acquired its peak intensity in the early morning hours on October 8 with winds of 90 mph. However, later that day, Angel was downgraded to a Polar Storm. Angel later became post-polar late on October 9. The storm completely dissipated on October 11. Invest 91N later developed in mid-October. On October 16, 91N developed into Polar Depression Two. Two was upgraded to Polar Storm Bell the next day, becoming the earliest second named storm in history. On October 20, Bell was upgraded to a polar cyclone, the second of the season. Early on October 22, Bell was upgraded to a major polar cyclone - the earliest in history. Bell later became a Catastrophic (category 5-equivalent) Polar Cyclone late that night, and acquired 175 mph winds the next day, which was the third strongest on record. Bell slightly weakened on October 24 to an Intense Polar Cyclone due to an eyewall replacement cycle and land interaction with Baffin Island. However, on October 26, Bell re-intensified, attaining its current peak intensity with winds of 180 mph and a minimum pressure of 899 mbar. Shortly after, Former Major Typhoon Champi became a Subpolar Depression and a Area of Low Pressure near San Josef land was classified as a Polar Depression, along with a area Southeast of the Aleutians becoming Polar Depression Four.

Arctic Cyclone Discussion
For the Arctic/North Pole basin...north of 55°N latitude:

Post-Polar Depression CANDLE- 8:00 PM EDT October 27

Maximum sustained winds: 25 mph, Minimum pressure: 976 mbar

Polar Depression Candle has become post-polar, and this is the final advisory.

Polar Storm DONNER- 8:00 PM EDT October 27

Maximum sustained winds: 60 mph, Minimum pressure: 986 mbar

Donner continues to intensify. As of 8PM tonight, Donner now has winds of 60 mph and a minimum pressure of 986 millibars. Donner should continue to strengthen and may become a Brief Weak (Category 1) Polar Cyclone before the same wind shear that is beginning to tear Candle apart Tears Donner apart.

8AM Wed 10/28: 70 MPH

8PM Wed 10/28: 75 MPH

8PM Thurs 10/29: 50 MPH

8PM Fri 10/30: 35 MPH

8PM Fri 10/31: 25 MPH/POST-POLAR

Invest 93N is a area of low pressure that could form later this week near The Japan-Russia Ocean Border. Shall this area develop, it will become possible the 4th or 5th named named Polar storm of the year.

Chance of Development through 48 Hours... HIGH, 80 Percent.

Chance of Development through 5 Days... HIGH, 90 Percent.

Invest 94N is a area of low pressure that is forming south of Greenland. This system is expected to form early tomorrow when it develops a cold core to be classified as polar or subpolar. This system is expected to rapidly intensify after it forms. The GFS model brings this system to a 951 mbar low by early Thursday, which could be a major polar cyclone.

Chance of Development through 48 Hours... VERY HIGH, near 100 Percent

Chance of Development through 5 Days... VERY HIGH, near 100 Percent

Invest 95N is a area of low pressure that could form out of Parts of Polar Storm Bell... It still should not develop due to it's proximity to Invest 94N. However, it is not impossible for this to happen.

Chance of Development through 48 Hours... LOW, 10 Percent

Chance of Development through 5 Days... LOW, 10 Percent

Invest 96N Is a area of low pressure that could form near Thule over the next few days. Shall this low form, it will cross Greenland and perhaps become the one of the next major polar cyclones.

Chance of Development through 48 Hours... LOW, 0 Percent

Chance of Development through 5 Days... MEDIUM, 40 Percent

-BNWC

Polar Cyclone Angel
On October 4, the Bob Nekaro Weather Center began monitoring a small area of low pressure producing snow showers, located about 400 miles south of the North Pole, directly north of Canada. At their first advisory at 4PM EDT, the BNWC predicted that the disturbance would have a 0% chance of development within the next 48 hours and a 20% chance of development within the next 5 days. However, the storm rapidly intensified, and was given an 80% chance of development by 3PM on October 5. Later that afternoon, satellite imagery from a BNWC Cyclone Hunters aircraft found a closed circulation and named the storm Polar Storm Angel nearly four weeks before the season officially begins. Angel later strengthened on October 6, and acquired Polar Cyclone status on October 7 at 3:00 PM. However, wind shear later inhibited development of the storm, and later on October 7 it was determined that it was highly unlikely that Angel would make landfall or reach major cyclone status. Angel weakened to a Polar Storm on October 8. Angel experienced steady weakening over the next 24 hours, and became post-polar late on October 9.

Polar Cyclone Bell
On October 12, the BNWC began monitoring an area of low pressure that was expected to form over Canada, for possible polar cyclogenesis. On October 14, the area of low pressure formed and moved off the coast of Canada into the Hudson Bay. Due to wind shear, development was initially viewed as unlikely for the next week. However, the storm moved much slower than originally expected, and wind shear relaxed slightly. This led to the system being designated Polar Depression Two on October 16 at 5PM. At 5:00 PM on October 17, it was upgraded to Polar Storm Bell. Bell is currently active with winds of 155 mph and a minimum pressure of 928 mbar. On October 19, after originally being predicted to dissipate early in the week, Bell's track was changed due to a more favorable environment than previously expected. Bell was upgraded to a Moderate Polar Cyclone on October 21, and a Severe Polar Cyclone on October 22. At 11PM on October 22, Bell was upgraded to a Catastrophic Polar Cyclone with winds of 165 mph. Later on October 23, Bell attained 175 mph winds - just 10 below the all-time record, at the same time Hurricane Patricia became the first hurricane with 200 mph winds. Bell is expected to not intensify any more in the next several days due to an eyewall replacement cycle. Bell then made landfall in Baffin Island early on October 24, and weakened down to an Intense Polar Cyclone later that day. On October 25, Bell was upgraded back to a Catastrophic Polar Cyclone, and on October 26, Bell became the strongest polar cyclone in terms of pressure in history. Bell rapidly dissipated into a remnant low on October 27.

Scale
This scale is based off the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, but with different terms for each category.

Names Used
A Christmas-themed name list will be used. These names are all different from Steve's. Should all names be used, the Hebrew alphabet will be used to name the storms.