User blog:Hurricane Layten/Hurricane Blanca...live tracking...

Hurricane Blanca rapidly intensifying...130kn (150mph) in the forecast...

Latest NHC forecast discussion
HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL      EP022015 400 AM CDT WED JUN 03 2015

Satellite data indicate that Blanca continues to rapidly strengthen as a small eye has become apparent during the past couple of hours. This is consistent with earlier microwave data that revealed a small pinhole eye, however there has been no recent microwave imagery to examine the current inner-core structure. Dvorak Data T-numbers were 5.0 or 90 kt from both TAFB and SAB, but with the recent satellite trends, the initial intensity is set at 95 kt. This is an increase in intensity of more than 40 kt over the past 24 hour period.

Rapid intensification is forecast to continue during the next 24 hours while Blanca remains over very warm water and in a low shear environment. The statistical-dynamical models (SHIPS, LGEM, and Florida State Superensemble) continue to show significant intensification during the next day or so, and all of these models bring Blanca to major hurricane status very soon. The official forecast is very close to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance during the first 2 to 3 days. After 72 hours, increasing southerly wind shear and cooler waters are expected to cause fairly quick weakening as Blanca approaches the Baja California peninsula.

Blanca has been nearly stationary overnight. Little motion is expected today, but a north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday when a mid-level ridge builds to the northeast of the hurricane. Blanca is expected to accelerate north- northwestward in south-southeasterly flow between the aforementioned ridge and a mid-level trough off the west coast of California. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there remains some differences in the forward speed of the hurricane. The GFS remains the fastest of the dynamical models, while the ECMWF is the slowest. The NHC forecast is again close to the previous advisory and near the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 12.6N 104.7W   95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 12.5N 104.7W  110 KT 125 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 12.9N 104.9W  125 KT 145 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 13.7N 105.4W  130 KT 150 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 15.1N 106.4W  130 KT 150 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 18.1N 108.6W  110 KT 125 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 21.1N 109.8W   80 KT  90 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 24.0N 110.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND