2014 Bikini Bottom hurricane season

The 2014 Bikini Bottom hurricane season is upcoming event in tropical cyclone meteorology. The season will begin on June 1, 2014, and it will end on November 30, 2014, dates that conventionally delimit the timeframe for tropical cyclogenesis. However, any tropical cyclone that forms between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2014, will factor into the season total.

Seasonal summary
Mr. Thicklebach, a famous Bikini Bottom scientist, and his team of coworkers met on December 3, 2013 to conclude the previous season's total activity and issue the first pre-seasonal forecast for the 2014 Bikini Bottom hurricane season.

Seasonal forecasts
In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several seasonal hurricane forecasts are released from several meteorological agencies. These include forecasters from the Bikini Bottom Hurricane Warning Center (BBHWC). As stated by the BBHWC, an average Bikini Bottom hurricane season contains roughly 17 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, 3.5 major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 160.865 units.

On December 3, 2013, Mr. Thicklebach's BBHWC coworkers issued the first seasonal forecast for the upcoming 2014 season. In their forecast, they called for 10 total storms, 33.75 named storm days, 4 hurricanes, 9.25 hurricane days, 1 major hurricane, 0.5 major hurricane days, and an ACE of 34.75 units. This level of predicted activity was far below the numbers witnessed in the previous two seasons. Several reasons were attributed to the lack of activity. First, a extremely rare La Niña typically witnessed only once per century would cause sea surface temperatures (SST's) to be nearly five degrees (Fahrenheit) below normal, preventing tropical cyclogenesis. Second, wind shear was predicted to reach all-time record highs, a second inhibitor of tropical cyclone development. Finally, dry air from a very severe Hawaiian drought was forecast to persist in the Bikini Bottom region until November 2014, destroying all tropical waves in the vincity. Also, the BBHWC noted an intense trough would also steer almost every tropical cyclone that did develop away from Bikini Bottom and towards the Western Pacific tropical cyclone basin. Consequently, they gave a 4% chance a tropical storm would hit Bikini Bottom, <1% chance of a hurricane hitting, and a 0% chance of a major hurricane impact.

Ten days later, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued their first-ever hurricane forecast for the upcoming Bikini Bottom hurricane season. In their forecast, they called for nine total storms, 28.50 named storm days, three hurricanes, 6.00 hurricane days, one major hurricane, and 0.25 intense hurricane days, and an ACE of 28.63 units. The agency also cited the intensification of the ongoing La Niña as a likely inhibitor of tropical cyclone activity.

On December 29, 2013, Thicklebach was beginning to have second thoughts of the season's activity. He now believed the season would be a lot more active than he first thought after observing that the previous two seasons were very active. He now hypothesized that the season would be even more active than 2013 and 2012 combined; the forecast called for 19 total storms, 10 hurricanes, five major hurricanes, and a 65% chance of a hurricane making a Bikini Bottom landfall. However, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) disagreed with Thicklebach's new forecast. In a storm-only forecast issued on January 5, they called for eight total storms, three hurricanes, and a lone major hurricane. The JMA also warned the BBHWC the conditions were incredibly similar to the La Niña that caused record inactivity in the 2010 Pacific hurricane and typhoon seasons.

One month later, the BBHWC issued its third forecast for the 2014 season. Thicklebach, listening to the JMA, significantly downgraded his forecast back to his original predictions. His team now called for seven named storms, 25.50 named storm days, three hurricanes, 3.5 hurricane days, one major hurricane, and 0.25 intense hurricane days. They also forecasted a 2% chance of a tropical storm hitting Bikini Bottom, 0% chance of a hurricane hit, and a 0% of a major hurricane impact. Two days later. Two days later, the JTWC released an updated prediction for the 2014 season. Even more pessimistic than the BBHWC, they cited the exceptional La Niña and dry air conditions in their forecast, which called for seven named storms, 19.00 named storm days, two hurricanes, 1.25 hurricane days, and no major hurricanes altogether. But then on April 5, 2014, Thicklebach was still getting confused on whether this hurricane season was going to be inactive or active. The El Nina he is seeing on radar, he decided to look it up on Wikipedia and he found something very interesting, the el Nina formed on August 31, 2013 in the Central Pacific and went into the Bikini Bottom Weather center's area of responsibility in late November and due to him being good in science (he shows off a lot!) Bikini Bottom is usually sometimes cold and sometimes hot. El Nina's usually last until six months in this area and it will transit back into the central pacific by May 9th. He quickly made a new forecast on April 7th and now it calls for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 8 tropical storms, and 3 major hurricanes. Overall, he now thinks this season is going to be average or fairly active. He said, Many other hurricane forecasters will probably disagree with me but that is indeed the August 2013 central pacific el Nina and it will return there in May. His brother said sarcastically, WHAT?! THIS SEASONAL FORECAST JUST JUMPED FROM BELOW AVERAGE TO FAIRLY ACTIVE?! AH CRAP! NOW A CATEGORY 5 IS GOING TO COME AND KILL ME! Thicklebach before this new discovery concludes said, don't worry guys my brother is a bit insane, we will get a bit more storms then we first thought but it's very rare that it will be a cat.5. JMA on April 8th did at first think Thicklebach was crazy for hypothesizing this season and immediately making it jump from below average to fairly active. But then two hours later, they then had second thoughts and since Thicklebach is known to be the "ultimate forecaster", an el Nina just deciding to move into a new region by Early May actually would gradually weaken the dry air that is going to be there for only three more weeks. The Bikini Bottom citizens are now taking precautions even two months before hurricane season starts again and are now more worried after this scientific fact was confirmed.

Accumulated cyclone energy
The table above shows the ACE for each storm in the season. ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of the hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACEs. ACE is calculated for only full advisories on tropical systems at or exceeding 34 knots (39 mph, 63 km/h) or tropical storm strength. Subtropical cyclones are not included in the ACE.

Storm Fatality Index
On February 9, 2014, the BBHWC announced the introduction of a new tropical cyclone scale - the Storm Fatality Index (SFI). Basically speaking, the SFI is similar to the ACE and Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP). A storm's SFI is determined by multiplying a storm's total fatalities by ten (10). Consequently, a storm causing 15 fatalities would receive an SFI of 150.

BBHWC naming list
The following list of storms will be used to name any storm that forms in the Bikini Bottom Hurricane Warning Center's area of responsibility in 2014. Retired names, if any, will be announced on March 17, 2015 at Session XXVIII of the Bikini Bottom Meteorological Organization. Because this is the first usage of this naming list since the practice begun in the 2012 season, it will consequently mark the first time any of these names will be used.

JTWC naming list
On February 9, 2014, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center announced they would began naming all tropical and subtropical depressions that formed in the BBHWC's area of responsibility using the Spanish alphabet. This naming list can get its names retired. It is also not related whatsoever to the BBHWC naming list; these names are for JTWC purposes only and will not show up in BBHWC advisories. All names will be used for the first time.

Tropical Weather Outlook
JTWC:

THERE ARE NO SUSPECT DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

BBHWC:

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 TO 120 HOURS.