User blog:AC5230/blog VII: ridiculous kammuri

Okay, let's be real. Tracking Kammuri has been an absolutely.. just.. crazy turn of events so far.

Here's, from my point of view (mainly in 3rd person), or close to that, the story of Kammuri, or at least the tracking of such cyclone.

The Beginning
The beginning was perfectly fine. JTWC had just begun issuing advisories on Tropical Depression 29W. ACSTS followed suit. The cyclone was expected to hit the Philippines as a Category 4, so I would have to keep a close eye on it, of course.

It got named as it intensified to a tropical storm, nothing unusual occurred.

It wasn't until Kammuri became a typhoon that things went awry.

📛1 Typhoon
Wed Nov 27 at 11:10 PM EST: Advisory 3 on Kammuri by ACSTS saw Kammuri upgraded to a typhoon.

Advisory 4 the next day showed intensification up to 75kt according to ACSTS. Then..

Thu Nov 28 at 10:00 PM EST: Advisory 5 makes known the realization by Forecaster AC that Kammuri's strength is disputed, some saying 70kt and others saying 75kt. ACSTS keeps 75kt analysis.

Things weren't getting much clearer, and ACSTS continued to issue advisories rogue.

Fri Nov 29 at 3:00 AM EST: Advisory 6 noted the deepening (which was only a JMA estimate) to 955 mbar, a mistake in judgement performed by Forecaster AC. This would not be corrected until Advisory 9A.

Advisory 7 maintained Kammuri's strength. Nothing new.

Then..

Fri Nov 29 at 10:45 PM EST: "New judgements" gave Forecaster AC the personal go-ahead to upgrade Kammuri to a Category 2 with 85kt winds. This advisory faced heavy backlash, and at 4:00 AM EST the next day, Kammuri was downgraded to a Category 1 with 80kt winds. Advisory 9 at noon EST would downgrade Kammuri to 70kts.

Enter Forecaster Salad.

Sun Dec 1 at 1:30 AM EST: The newly-appointed forecaster SaladSports (aka Salad) was given the go-ahead by AC to go and issue another advisory. This advisory was incorrectly deemed 9, and is now being referred to and officialized as advisory 9A from ACSTS. Salad corrected the pressure estimate to a more accurate 971 mbar, and upgraded Kammuri's wind estimate to 75kt. (AC would return to his post in Advisory 11.) Advisory 10 noted Signal 2 warnings for the island of Luzon, but otherwise intensity remained the same.

Sun Dec 1 at 4:00 AM EST: Advisory 10A was issued by Salad, which noted rapid intensification, with the estimate upgraded to 80kt and 964 mbar. This was quite off from JTWC's analysis at this point, and it would be off for a while until Special Advisory 14 finally was matched by JTWC's Advisory 26, 18 hours after ACSTS Advisory 10A.

Sun Dec 1 at noon EST: Forecaster AC returns to his post, keeping the intensity analysis. Nothing really seemed to change.

Things were soon to get crazy.

Sun Dec 1 at 2:30 EST: Advisory 12 keeps intensity, but now Forecaster AC is forecasting "extremely dangerous at landfall". In that advisory, this was also said after the advisory text summary:

EFFECTIVE FOR THE EASTERN PHILIPPINES:

''Take cover now. Prepare for power outages.''

Evacuation may not be an option, depending on your location.

''This is a dangerous situation. Special advisories may be initiated.''

​​​​​​The landfall situation, for trackers and Filipino peoples both, was about to unfold.

Landfall Imminent
Sun Dec 1 at 7:30 PM EST: Forecaster Salad returns to upgrade Kammuri back to Category 2 status. By this time, Kammuri was closing in on the Philippines, and as such, Salad noted "dangerous conditions occurring across the Philippines". Salad's analysis gave 85kt and 960mbar. The headline and analysis would be kept in Advisory 13A an hour later, but the bottom text instructions would change:

THE EASTERN PHILIPPINES:

''Kammuri continues westward as a low-end C2 and it is continuing to strengthen. The Philippines will get most-likely get C3+ conditions by the time it reaches Catanduanes. Heavy Rain will continue for a few days over The Central Philippine. ''

Get your typhoon safety plan if you live in the region and hunker down and stay safe.

Sun Dec 1 at 8:45 PM EST: Forecaster AC releases video update 4 on Kammuri. AC gave Kammuri winds of 105 MPH (1min), reflected in Special Advisory 14 (issued by AC) with a 90kt estimate of winds. The pressure estimate returned to 955 mbar. Meanwhile, in the video update, AC gave a landfall rating of "extremely catastrophic", continuing to look at Luzon island for a landfall at Category 3 status.

​​​​Sun Dec 1 at 11:45 PM EST: Advisory 15 is issued. Forecaster AC, seeing satellite imagery, has decided to upgrade Kammuri to a 95kt Category 3. AC also posts the landfall rating on the advisory, continuing to give it a rating of "extremely catastrophic", noting Category 3 status expected at landfall.

Sun Dec 1 at 11:47 PM EST: This blog post is released. Kammuri continuing towards the Philippines. Who knows what happens now?