User blog:Bobnekaro/Thoughts on October

As I have said before, October is a month of "beasts and hybrids." It's one of my favorite months of the Atlantic hurricane season as it notorious for very strong (as well as odd) storms. With this 2017 Atlantic hurricane season already standing at 13-7-4 with two category 5 hurricanes and a hyperactive ACE total of 159, what do you guys think will happen in October?

I think we'll see 2-3 storms in the month, 1-2 of which become hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. I expect the major hurricane in October to form over the deep warm waters of the NW Caribbean Sea. These waters have been pretty much untapped in recent years, and have some of the highest tropical cyclone heat potential in the world. With lower than normal shear in the Caribbean this season, likely aided by a developing La Nina, we could see something strong form down there this October. I don't think we will see much activity in the subtropical western Atlantic this October unlike recent years since the majority of the strong activity this season has been in the deep tropics.

If a tropical wave gets into the western Caribbean next month with 48 hours of low shear, watch out.