User blog:VileMaster/GIHC 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook 3

'''NOTE: THIS IS THE LAST OUTLOOK POSTED BY THE GIHC. THE VMIHC WILL TAKE OVER FORECASTS FOR 2019.'''

Now that it is June 1st, the GIHC will release their third and final outlook for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. Here are the numbers:

9-13 Tropical Storms

4-7 Hurricanes

1-3 Major Hurricanes

ACE: 50-95 Units

Why do we say these numbers? Keep on reading, and it will all be explained to you. Regardless of the season's expected activity, always be prepared for a big storm.

Meteorological FactorsScreenshot_2018-06-01_at_7.19.24_AM.png
One of the main reasons GIHC has lowered their numbers is due to anomalous cooling of the tropical Atlantic, normally the breeding ground for strong hurricanes. Ever since February, the Main Development Region has been cooling, and is now 5C below average in some places. While it is not out of the question the MDR could warm to neutral status by the peak of the season, that doesn't seem likely at the moment, as the subtropics remain extremely warm, which is characteristic of an inactive season.

The second main reason is the recent model shift towards el nino. Particularly on the CFS, which has an El Nino developing by October. It is possible that El Nino may not develop, but the season would likely be hindered by the cold tropical atlantic regardless. However, if the el nino forms and the tropical atlantic remains as cold as it is, 2018 could be among the least active Atlantic seasons on record. This is unlikely, however.

Land Impacts
We have already had Subtropical Storm Alberto, which made landfall on the Florida Panhandle. I think this will be a below to near average year for tropical cyclone landfalls, given the recent landfall trend in 2016-17.

I think we will see:

1-2 more tropical storm landfalls

0-1 hurricane landfalls

0 major hurricane landfalls

It is very uncertain which areas are at most risk, but the carolinas and new england are possible candidates, as storms could intensify in the subtropics.

This concludes the annual forecast from GIHC. This will be the last forecast from GIHC, before VMIHC takes over for the 2019 forecast. We hope that you stay prepared this season, and remember: it only takes one.