2016 Atlantic usercane season

The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season is a current event in the Atlantic Ocean basin of usercane formation. This season runs throughout 2016. Most commonly, storms form between June and November; however, storms may form at any time of year. The season runs throughout 2016, though most tropical cyclones typically develop between May and October.

The season got off to a torrid pace in January, before slowing down later. The first storm of the season, Tropical Depression One, formed on January 5th, making it the earliest start for a Atlantic usercane season, also setting a record for the earliest first storm formation date. One later intensified into Tropical Storm Destiny, which would dissipate and regenerate several times until turning extratropical on March 15. The first hurricane of the season was Keranique, which acquired hurricane intensity on February 1. Keranique and Bittersweet both attained major hurricane intensity on March 2, the latter of which would make a destructive landfall as an extratropical cyclone. Bittersweet so far has been the costliest storm of the season, while Keranique has been the strongest and longest-lived.

Advisories for usercanes are issued by the National Usercane Center weekly on Fridays. Many other usercane prediction centers, such as the SMWC, KMC, HTMC, CDMC and FMC branches, also issue advisories.

'''All HHW users that join in 2016 and make at least 5 edits will be in this season. '''If they have at least 10 edits, they will become a "named storm".

Pre-season forecasts
In late December 2015, pre-season forecasts began to be issued for the 2016 Atlantic hurricane HHW user season. The first agency to predict was the Bob Nekaro Weather Center, which forecast 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes on December 31, a less active season than 2015, mainly due to increased dry air prohibiting development of strong storms. Three days later, four additional weather agencies made 2016 predictions, all predicting an above-average season. The NKWC predicted 24 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, also citing increased dry air but lower wind shear in their prediction. The HTMC followed, predicting 28 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, yet again citing similar conditions forecast to be present during the 2016 season. The HOWC then made a surprising prediction of 34 named storms, 21 hurricanes and 9 major hurricanes, a prediction based off minimal wind shear and dry air. The CDMC also made a prediction, predicting 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. The next day the SMWC came in with a prediction of 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. In total, nearly all of the forecasts predict an above-average season due to the La Nina expected to be present.

Tropical Outlook
Seven weather centers currently issue usercane forecasts: the BNWC, SMWC, HTMC, CDMC, FMC, KMC and the WSCMS.
 * National Usercane Center (BNWC branch)
 * SMWC Usercane Prediction Center (SMWC branch)
 * HTMC Usercane Prediction Center (HTMC branch)
 * CDMC Forecasts for Usercanes (CDMC branch)
 * FMC Usercane Prediction Center (FMC branch)
 * KMC Usercane Branch (KMC branch)
 * Layten's Usercane Prediction Centre (WSCMS branch)

Classification

 * Category 5 hurricane: An active and unbanned HHW bureaucrat.
 * Category 4 hurricane: An active and unbanned HHW administrator.
 * Category 3 hurricane: An active and unbanned HHW junior administrator.
 * Category 2 hurricane: An active and unbanned HHW Chat Moderator with rollback rights.
 * Category 1 hurricane: An active and unbanned HHW Chat Moderator without rollback rights.
 * Tropical Storm: An active HHW user with at least 10 edits without user rights. An autopatrolled user falls at the upper end of this category usually.
 * Tropical Depression: A new HHW user with at least 5 edits, OR an inactive HHW user that has never had user rights.
 * Subtropical Storm: An active HHW user that previously had user rights and has been demoted from a position of power, OR A returning retired HHW user that previously had user rights.
 * Subtropical Depression: A user that meats the criteria for a tropical depression, but retired and returned with less than 10 edits. (Very rare) (Example: A user that had 6 edits returns after a year of not editing, then they are a subtropical depression)
 * Invest: A user with 4 or fewer edits, or a user with no edits that appears in chat.

Season Summary
Numerous storms that formed in 2015 or earlier were active at the start of 2016: Major hurricanes included Hurricane Hype, Hurricane Nkechinyer, Hurricane Michelle, Hurricane Bob, Hurricane Ryne, Hurricane Layten, Hurricane Floyd, Hurricane Jack and Hurricane Marcus. There were also several non-major hurricanes as well as tropical storms.

January
The season got off to an exceptionally early start, with Tropical Depression One developing on January 5. One quickly intensified into Tropical Storm Destiny. Destiny would peak as a 45 mph tropical storm, before degenerating into a remnant low in late January. Tropical Depression Two formed the following week, which would eventually slowly develop into Hurricane Bittersweet. On January 15, a weak and disorganized Tropical Storm Yolo formed near the Cape Verde Islands from the remnants of Tropical Storm Telamon in 2015, operationally, Yolo was thought to have been a new storm, however.

A trio of tropical storms formed the next day, Nuno, RAM and Keranique. Nuno rapidly dissipated two days later, and RAM dissipated 6 days later. Keranique, however, began to intensify, becoming the strongest storm of the season by late January. On January 30, another weak tropical storm, Matthew, developed southeast of Cape Verde, but struggled to intensify amongst dry air.

February
On February 1, Keranique was upgraded into a category 1 hurricane - effectively becoming the first hurricane of the season. Three days later, Bittersweet intensified into a category 1 storm, becoming the second hurricane of the season. In addition, Keranique was upgraded to a category 2 storm as it remained in a favorable environment. February did not feature as much activity as January due to increased wind shear and drier air than the previous month.

Nonetheless, on February 12, Tropical Depression Ten developed from an upper-level low northeast of the Bahamas. Ten would later intensify into Tropical Storm Darren. On February 15, Bittersweet was upgraded to a category 2 hurricane. On February 19, Tropical Depression Eleven developed southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

March
March began with the unexpected regeneration of Nuno into a subtropical storm on March 1, south of the Azores. On March 2, both Hurricanes Bittersweet and Keranique intensified into category 3 major hurricanes - becoming the first two major hurricanes of the season. On March 4, Tropical Storm Darren intensified into a category 1 hurricane. Tropical quietude continued throughout March as high wind shear and low sea surface temperatures dominated. On March 15, Tropical Storm Destiny turned into an extratropical cyclone as it begun to track northward. On March 31, just one day after weakening to a tropical storm, Bittersweet turned extratropical. March passed without any new cyclones forming throughout the entire month. The inactivity in March was likely a result of strong wind shear and a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, which peaked in the third week of the month.

April
On April 3, the extratropical remnants of Bittersweet made landfall near Newfoundland. The storm caused significant damage, and was re-assessed in post-analysis to have caused over $1 billion in damage. The +NAO pattern that dominated in March began to ease, allowing a more favorable environment for usercane development. Also on April 3, Tropical Depression Twelve formed from an invest that had actually formed in February, becoming a tropical storm hours later and receiving the name "Pearl". On April 9, Tropical Depression Thirteen formed east of Cape Verde, later developing into Tropical Storm David. On April 17, Tropical Depression Fourteen formed near Bermuda, followed by Tropical Depression Fifteen just the next day east of Cape Verde. Fourteen would later grow into Tropical Storm RS, while Fifteen would become Tropical Storm Chris; both storms would fail to last more than two weeks. On April 19, Subtropical Depression Sixteen formed in the Northern Atlantic and rapidly dissipated after just one advisory. On April 24, 2016, Tropical Depression Seventeen developed east of Cape Verde, which would later grow into Tropical Storm Orlando. On April 29, 2016, Hurricane Darren intensified into a category 3 major hurricane - the third major hurricane of the season. Also late that month, Subtropical Storm Nuno regenerated into a subtropical cyclone.

May
May started off quiet, with no new storms forming. On May 12, a weak Tropical Storm Lance developed North of the Lesser Antilles and struggled to intensify further. The following day, Hurricane Keranique became the season's first category 4 hurricane. However, on May 16, a tropical wave exited the coast of Africa and rapidly developed into Tropical Storm James. James rapidly intensified to near hurricane status by end of the month due to a well-defined structure. On May 25, Tropical Storm Orlando intensified into the season's fourth hurricane.

June
June blossomed with activity, with a multitude of tropical depressions developing into named storms. Tropical Depression Twenty persisted throughout the month, but fell just short of tropical storm status. On June 9, a tropical wave exited western Africa and organized into Tropical Depression Twenty-One. Twenty-One rapidly intensified into Tropical Storm Minecraft. Minecraft would later intensify into a strong tropical storm. Tropical Depression Twenty-Two formed on the same day, but dissipated after the initial advisory. Tropical Storm Thomas developed two days later east of the Windward Islands.

On June 12, an unnamed storm, which formed in the far northeastern Atlantic and later turned extratropical and made landfall in Europe, was found in post-analysis. The cyclone formed in between advisories and was already a non-tropical remnant low by the time it would have been classified. It was briefly tracked by the FMC, where it was labeled as "24L.NONAME", although no name was assigned for the storm, as it was thought the storm was extratropical when it was going to be assigned an name.

Activity simmered down thereafter, though Hurricane Orlando intensified into a category 2 storm, while Tropical Storm James rapidly intensified into the season's fifth hurricane on the same day of Tropical Storm Thomas' formation. Tropical cyclogenesis began once again on June 26, with Tropical Depression Twenty-Four becoming Tropical Storm Wiz. Two days later, Tropical Storm Hazel followed. At the end of the month, the remnants of Tropical Storm Pearl regenerated into a weak subtropical depression, while Tropical Storm Nuno struck Portugal as a post-tropical cyclone.

July
July started off at a torrid pace, with Nuno re-attaining subtropical characteristics as it re-emerged into the subtropical Atlantic. On July 6, Tropical Depression Twenty-Six rapidly developed into Tropical Storm Garfield. The following day, Hurricane Darren intensified into a category 4 hurricane - the second of the season. Meanwhile, Hurricane James became a category 2 storm. On July 8, Hurricane Orlando intensified into the season's fourth major hurricane. Only three days later, Orlando intensified into the season's third Category 4 hurricane. Orlando later weakened to a tropical storm shortly thereafter.

Tropical Storm Destiny (UniversalSolo)
On January 5, a tropical wave rapidly developed in the southern Caribbean. Later that evening, advisories were initiated for Tropical Depression One. Amid low wind shear and warm water temperatures, TD One intensified into TS Destiny less than 30 minutes later as part of a special advisory. The next day, Destiny changed little in intensity. Operationally, Destiny was expected to have peaked in intensity at 45 mph (40 knots), however, post-analysis confirms that Destiny did reach 50 mph winds at one advisory. Destiny would fluctuate in intensity over the next several weeks, nearly dissipating several times. On March 15, Destiny had completed its extratropical transition east of the Bahamas, and began to turn northward with a slight chance of regeneration.

Hurricane Bittersweet (A Bittersweet Journey)
On January 8, a non-tropical low near Bermuda began to be monitored for possible tropical cyclogenesis. On January 13, it organized itself into Tropical Depression Two. Due to only marginally sufficient sea surface temperatures, Two was not initially expected to intensify beyond tropical storm status. Nonetheless, Two intensified to Tropical Storm "Bittersweet" in a special advisory in January 21. Bittersweet would further intensify to 45 mph shortly afterward. Due to a sudden lack of wind shear and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures, Bittersweet began to intensify in late January. On February 4, Bittersweet intensified into a category 1 hurricane. 11 days later on February 15, Bittersweet was upgraded to a category 2 storm. On February 29, in a favorable environment, Bittersweet intensified to 110 mph as the hurricane's core became increasingly well organized. On March 2, Bittersweet intensified into a category 3 major hurricane, the first of the season. Due to cooling sea surface temperatures, intensification has been limited since. On March 30, Bittersweet rapidly weakened to a tropical storm due to increasing wind shear from nearby storms. On March 31, Bittersweet transitioned to an extratropical cyclone. The following day, the extratropical cyclone struck Newfoundland and resulted in widespread destruction.

Tropical Depression Four (HurricaneHistory)
On January 3, the BNWC began monitoring a tropical wave located off the coast of West Africa. The wave briefly acquired tropical depression intensity on January 5, but was not operationally classified due to an apparent lack of a closed circulation. However, it degenerated into a remnant trough the next day. Due to dry air, the wave struggled to re-develop. However, on January 15, the low formed into Tropical Depression Four. It eventually degenerated into a trough of low pressure later that evening. As of March 15, the remnants of TD Four pulled back together and have a chance of regeneration by May.

Post-Analysis
In post-season analysis, it was discovered that Four actually was a weak 25 mph tropical depression for 24 hours beginning on January 5 and ending on January 6. Operationally, Four did not form until January 15, however. Its peak winds were also lowered from 35 to 30 mph, due to the fact that peak winds observed were in the 30-31 mph range.

Tropical Storm RAM (RAMTurtle)
In mid-January, a series of tropical waves rapidly developed west of Africa. One of them, the southernmost one, developed a closed circulation on January 15 and became Tropical Depression Five. Five would later strengthen into Tropical Storm RAM about 200 miles south-southeast of the Cape Verde islands. However, dry air and entrainment from the Saharan Air Layer caused RAM to rapidly weaken to a tropical depression by later that week. On January 22, RAM dissipated.

Reanalysis
During RAM's tropical cyclone reanalysis (TCR), it was discovered that RAM formed one day earlier, on January 15. It was operationally stated that RAM formed on January 16, however.

Tropical Storm Nuno (NunoLava1998)
In mid-January, a tropical wave split into two portions. The southern portion developed into Hurricane Keranique. The northern portion, however, took its own track, developing into Tropical Depression Six and eventually Tropical Storm Nuno on January 16. Nuno acquired peak winds of 40 mph before degenerating into a remnant low on January 18. The remnants of Nuno would remain weak for over a month before pulling itself together into a subtropical storm south of the Azores on March 1. Several days later, Nuno weakened into a subtropical depression. Nuno then transitioned back into a non-tropical trough of low pressure. On April 28, 2016, Nuno once again regenerated into a subtropical depression, later becoming a subtropical storm. On May 7, Nuno once again became fully tropical as it hit a new peak intensity. However, on June 10, Nuno became subtropical once again. Nuno would continue to fluctuate in intensity over coming weeks, eventually being declared post-tropical on June 29 while brushing Portugal. Several days later, Nuno re-attained subtropical characteristics and remains active as a 45 mph subtropical storm.

Hurricane Keranique (AGirlCalledKeranique)
The origins of Hurricane Keranique were traced back to a tropical wave that developed over central Africa on December 22, the northern portion of which would produce Tropical Storm Nuno. Moving very slowly over land, the wave became Tropical Depression Seven on January 16 while located southeast of Cape Verde. Seven was rapidly upgraded to a tropical storm, receiving the name "Keranique". On February 1, Keranique intensified into a category 1 hurricane. Just a few days later, Keranique intensified into a category 2 hurricane located south-southwest of Cape Verde. On March 2, Keranique intensified into a category 3 major hurricane, the second of the season. Since, Keranique has steadily intensified, and remains the strongest storm of the season to date. On May 13, Keranqiue intensified into the first category 4 hurricane of the season. To date, Keranique remains active, having attained a new peak intensity of 150 mph.

Tropical Storm Matthew (NY WX)
In late January, a tropical storm formed just east of Cape Verde. It developed from Tropical Depression Eight, and was named "Matthew". Matthew then dissipated on February 2 after failing to intensify beyond minimal tropical storm status.

Subtropical Storm Callum (Callum Fawsitt)
In early January, the BNWC began monitoring a non-tropical low near Bermuda, for possible tropical or subtropical cyclogenesis. Conditions were initially unfavorable for development. Nonetheless, the low became Subtropical Storm Callum on February 4. Callum has continued to meander around the central Atlantic as a weak subtropical storm for over a month. In mid-March, Callum weakened to a subtropical depression. On April 8, Callum re-intensified back into a subtropical storm. Callum would persist through coming months, despite unfavorable conditions, fluctuating in intensity. As of July, Callum is active as a minimal subtropical depression.

Hurricane Darren (DarrenDude)
On February 12, a new tropical depression formed northeast of the Bahamas. The next day it intensified into Tropical Storm Darren. Darren would slowly intensify during the next few weeks. On March 4, Darren intensified into a category 1 hurricane. Darren later further intensified into a category 2 hurricane late that month. A temporary collapse of deep convection in April caused forecasting groups to briefly forecast weakening of Darren. However, the hurricane's eye cleared out later that month. On April 29, 2016, Darren became a category 3 major hurricane, the third major hurricane of the season. After maintaining intensity for several months, Darren eventually acquired Category 4 status on July 7, the second category 4 storm of the season.

Tropical Depression Eleven (YogeetaALT5)
On February 14, the BNWC began monitoring a new invest east of Cape Verde. On February 19, tropical depression Eleven formed about 100 miles southwest of Cape Verde. Shortly after forming, Eleven began to weaken as it turned northwestward. On March 29, Eleven dissipated, becoming the second storm of the season to not strengthen past tropical depression intensity. The extratropical remnants of Eleven made landfall in Africa, causing minimal damage.

Tropical Storm Pearl (Bluepearl6660)
On February 20, a tropical wave began to move off the coast of Africa. Moving very slowly, the wave struggled to intensify due to dry air. Nonetheless, on April 3, the wave developed into Tropical Depression Twelve, intensifying to Tropical Storm Pearl hours later, becoming the first storm in over 6 weeks to form. Pearl would later peak with 60 mph winds, eventually unexpectedly dissipating into a remnant trough due to dry air entrainment. In late June, Pearl regenerated as a subtropical storm.

Tropical Storm David (Wafflemaster135)
Around 18:00 UTC April 9, a tropical wave was noted about 250 miles east of Cape Verde Islands. The next day, it intensified into Tropical Depression Thirteen at 00:00 UTC on April 10. A few hours later, Thirteen intensified into Tropical Storm David. Initially favorable conditions were expected to allow intensification, and David was at one point expected by the NUC to become a hurricane. Struggling to intensify amongst the Saharan Air Layer, David weakened to a Tropical Depression on April 16 in its possible final advisory. David re-strengthened back to a tropical storm on May 13. However, the regeneration was short-lived, as David almost immediately degenerated back into an open trough.

Tropical Storm RS (Rs1010)
On April 17, a tropical wave rapidly developed into Tropical Depression Fourteen. Advisories were then initiated for the depression the following day. Briefly, Tropical Depression Fourteen intensified into Tropical Storm RS, before weakening back to a tropical depression. RS dissipated on April 23 as dry air became entrained in its circulation.

Tropical Storm Chris (ChristopherEarl)
On April 18, a tropical wave exited the coast of Africa, and rapidly developed into Tropical Storm Chris. On April 25, Chris was downgraded to a tropical depression. Chris then dissipated shortly after.

Subtropical Depression Sixteen (StarmanW)
On April 19, an extratropical cyclone near the Azores briefly gained subtropical characteristics for six hours as a subtropical depression, the sixteenth of the year. Just afterward, it degenerated into a remnant non-tropical low pressure area.

Hurricane Orlando (Njsupercane1)
On April 10, a tropical wave exited the coast of Africa. On April 23, a burst of convection caused the BNWC to begin monitoring it for development. However, a collapse in convection due to moderate wind shear nearly caused the storm to dissipate. However, the wave improved its organization. 2 days later on April 25, it developed into Tropical Depression Seventeen just south-southeast of Cape Verde. On April 27, while located just south of Cape Verde, the low strengthened into Tropical Storm Orlando. On May 25, Orlando intensified into a category 1 hurricane, the fourth hurricane of the season. Orlando intensified further, later becoming the season's fourth major hurricane on July 8. Unexpectedly, on July 10, Orlando intensified into a Category 4 major hurricane, the third of the season. However, several days later, Orlando's eyewall collapsed, resulting in explosive weakening to a tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Lance (Monsterjam19)
On May 12, an upper-level low developed into a tropical storm, and was named "Lance." Lance shortly afterwards acquired a peak intensity of 45 mph. The depression lost its closed circulation and degenerated into a trough on May 25.

Hurricane James (Money Hurricane)
On May 16, a tropical wave exited the coast of Africa and rapidly developed into a Tropical Storm the next day. The system rapidly expanded in size, and was named "James" by the National Usercane Center. A small eye rapidly appeared, and on June 11, James strengthened into a category 1 hurricane. James continued to rapidly intensify, attaining Category 2 status on July 7.

Unnamed Tropical Storm (Dv6615517)
As part of post-analysis, it was determined an unnamed tropical storm formed in the far northeastern Atlantic on June 12 for just a few hours. It turned extratropical and made landfall in Europe. The cyclone formed in between advisories and was already a non-tropical remnant low by the time it would have been classified.

The storm was tracked by the FMC, but was never assigned a name because it was originally believed the storm was actually extratropical. Regardless, it was labeled "24L.NONAME" by the FMC forecast models, "PLS" and "DRAMA".

Tropical Storm Garfield (MasterGarfield)
On July 6, a tropical wave exited the coast of Africa. It is estimated that the wave developed into Tropical Storm Garfield a few hours later. However, the NUC did not officially recognize the system until July 12, due to NUC's lead forecaster being on vacation.

Disputed Storms
Some of the storms in this season were not classified by most weather centers, but were recognized by the HOWC.

Tropical Storm Telamon-Yolo (Heythereyolo123123123)
Tropical Storm Telamon formed on August 18, but was not operationally warned upon as the NUC did not exist at that time. The weak tropical storm slowly moved and intensified slightly. The system degenerated to a remnant low in early October 2015.

On January 15, a westward-moving tropical wave associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Telamon developed into Tropical Depression Three about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Late that evening, the system became considerably more well-defined, and eventually intensified into Tropical Storm Yolo. However, interaction with the Saharan Air Layer and moderate wind shear caused the system to degenerate into a remnant low the next day. On January 29, Yolo re-intensified back to a tropical storm. However, the storm accelerated westward and made landfall in Northern South America, peaking as a 45 mph disorganized tropical storm. Yolo wrought moderate damage to South America, causing an estimated $100 million in damage. Due to the Brown Ocean Effect, Yolo nearly regenerated several times before becoming a very weak remnant low. Moving back into the Caribbean, Yolo began to regain tropical characteristics. The weak and extremely disorganized cyclone regenerated into a tropical depression on three separate occasions, on March 3, March 30, and June 29.

On July 13, as part of post-analysis it was determined that Yolo was actually not a 2016 storm, but formed from the remnants of Tropical Storm Telamon in 2015.

Tropical Depression Twelve (Karl Kaapstad)
As part of post-season analysis, the HOWC identified a possible tropical depression that existed on March 1 and 2, which could have been Tropical Depression Twelve. This depression is thought to have developed from a merger between the weak remnants of Hurricane Nkechinyer and a tropical wave. However, the BNWC and FMC do not recognize this storm; they view it as the remnants of Hurricane Nkechinyer.

Tropical Storm Pug (1789 Pug)
On March 23, a tropical wave formed over Africa. It rapidly developed into a tropical depression over land. On March 24, the system briefly acquired tropical storm status and would have been named "Pug", according to the HOWC. Late that afternoon, Pug dissipated. It is believed by the BNWC and FMC that Pug is associated with the remnants of Hurricane Douglas from 2014.

Tropical Storm Ashlyn (CycloneAshlyn2002)
Ashlyn was associated with the remnants of Hurricane Douglas from 2014, according to the FMC and the BNWC.

Names used
Names will be based off the new user's username or real name. There is no set naming list for this season.

Season effects
This is a table of all the storms that have formed in the 2016 Atlantic usercane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s), denoted in parentheses, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in 2016 USD.