User blog:Hurricane Layten/Matthew set to ramp up in the Caribbean, Chaba set to wreak havoc in Japan

Since I posted last night, Matthew’s structure hasn’t changed much in organisation. In fact, Matthew seems to be struggling to maintain its closed low level circulation this morning as it moves towards the ABC islands in the coming days. The general consensus now shows that Matthew will head towards the Greater Antilles, with a possible landfall as a major hurricane in both Jamaica and Cuba before heading for yet another major hurricane landfall in the Bahamas. The latest model runs, which are just coming in now still show conflictions after the system leaves Cuba, with Florida being stuck in the middle of the track guidance.

The latest Euro run, for example, no longer shows a track into the Gulf, but out into the Atlantic, where it will peak as a very high end category 4 with a pressure of 927 mbar, whilst the GFS doesn’t take the storm below 938 mbar. The GFS also has Matthew off Maine by this point, having made landfall in North Carolina as a category 4 hurricane before weakening and becoming extratropical as it accelerates back out into the Atlantic again. But we will see about that, as the track forecast is generally less accurate than that of the intensity guidance.

Out in the Pacific, Tropical Depression Roslyn is barely holding onto tropical characteristics, and will likely be a remnant low by later today, with no issues to land areas.

On the other hand, Ulika is being a hassle for forecasters, as it is still refusing to follow its forecasts. Just to think that Ulika was a hurricane yesterday, before an unexpected increase in shear has torn apart the very small circulation of the storm as it has drifted near the 140W line. Again, Ulika should weaken and turn extratropical as it makes another approach towards Hawaii, without too much of an issue for the islands if the remnant circulation makes it over there.

Out in the West, Tropical Storm Chaba continues to battle with unfavourable conditions as it moves along the upwelled waters left in Megi’s wake. The model intensity forecasts are all over the place with this system, with the general consensus showing a gradual intensification as it curves around a subtropical ridge and towards the islands of Japan, where it should eventually make landfall as a typhoon in about a week’s time.

I will have more here later on if anything develops.