Tropical Storm Arlene (2017) (Sassmaster15's Prediction)

Tropical Storm Arlene was a moderate tropical storm that struck Florida in early June 2017. The first tropical cyclone and named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, Arlene originated from the combination of a cold front and tropical wave situated over the central Caribbean Sea that brought flooding rains to the island nation of Cuba. As the disturbance entered the Gulf of Mexico, decreasing levels of wind shear and above-average oceanic surface temperatures resulted in the consolidation to a tropical cyclone on June 8. The cyclone gradually intensified as it progressed on a northeasterly track to the Tampa area of Florida, ultimately making landfall in the region approximately two days subsequent to formation. Arlene peaked with maximum winds of 60 miles per hour, weakening slightly as it struck the state with sustained wind speeds of 50 miles per hour. The following day, June 11, Arlene departed the eastern coast of the state and shifted northward in response to a trough stationed to the storm's southeast. By the time Arlene struck Myrtle Beach, South Carolina later that day, the storm had underwent and completed its extratropical transition. The remnants of Arlene progressed up the Eastern Seaboard and continued to cause inclement weather across the region until a larger system absorbed the remnants over Prince Edward Island on June 14.

Prior to being classified as a tropical cyclone, the precursor disturbance to Arlene dropped torrential rainfall over much of Cuba; Cienfuegos reported at least twelve inches of rain fell during the two days the system affected the nation. In Pinar del Río, over 200 people were rendered homeless due to flooding from the overflowing Cuyaguateje River. In Florida, Arlene's primary impact was from heavy rain. In Pinellas County, over ten inches of rain was reported. Significant street flooding ensued in Tampa and Sarasota, though most floodwaters did not persist for even a day. Arlene also produced an EFO tornado in Clearwater, causing damage to 25 homes and resulting in one fatality. Offshore, rip currents produced by the storm knocked two people from their vessel while attempting to return to port as Arlene approached. Little, if any, effects were reported from winds; the highest one-minute sustained measurement reported during Arlene's passage was 42 miles per hour from an instrument in Dade City. Atypically, Arlene strengthened slightly while post-tropical, producing 66 mph sustained winds in Conway, South Carolina. Widespread tree and roof damage was reported, and a man in Myrtle Beach was killed after being struck by a wayward piece of sheet metal airborne by Arlene's winds. A tornado was also reported in Raleigh, North Carolina, though damage was inconsequential. Heavy rain and gusty winds were also reported throughout New England and Atlantic Canada. Collectively, Arlene caused approximately $350,000 (2017 USD) in damage and was responsible for four fatalities.