Hurricane Earl (2016-Bob's Scenario)

Hurricane Earl was the fifth named storm, second hurricane, and first landfalling hurricane of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season.

Meteorological History
On July 28, the National Hurricane Center began monitoring a tropical wave in between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde Islands for possible tropical cyclogenesis. Initially, strong trade winds caused the disturbance to move too quickly to develop a closed circulation. The disturbance slowly began to organize, as it began to wrap convection around the center on July 31. However, by August 1, the system entered a much more favorable environment as it entered the Caribbean. At 21:00 UTC on August 3, the low pressure system was upgraded to Tropical Depression Five while located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, as a Hurricane Hunter aircraft identified a closed circulation. 6 hours later, the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Earl, after an ASCAT pass revealed the presence of three 35-knot vectors in the northwestward quadrant of the cyclone. Earl would intensify to its first peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph by 15:00 UTC on August 4. Just after this first peak intensity, Earl made landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula and began to weaken. At 03:00 UTC on August 5, Earl weakened to a tropical depression. In the Yucatan Peninsula, Earl caused 3 fatalities and approximately $15 million in damage.

As a weak, disorganized Earl moved westward, it emerged into the Bay of Campeche. Due to light wind shear of only 5-10 knots, Earl regained tropical storm strength at 15:00 UTC on August 5. A large upper-level anticyclone develop atop the storm, and record-warm waters, estimated at 89F, allowed Earl to rapidly intensify. Just 18 hours after regaining tropical storm strength at 09:00 UTC on August 6, Earl was upgraded to a category 1 hurricane after a recon flight identified flight-level winds of 80 kt. A well-defined eye feature cleared out, allowing Earl to acquire its peak intensity as a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and a minimum pressure of 969 mbar at 15:00 UTC that same day. Around 19:00 UTC on August 6, Earl made landfall near the Mexico-Texas border as a category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph. Rapid weakening began after landfall, and 03:00 UTC on August 8, Earl dissipated over southwestern Texas. In total, Earl caused an estimated 16 fatalities and approximately $865 million in damage. The name Earl was not retired.