2019 Sandantic hurricane season

The 2019 Sandantic hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation, in which tropical cyclones form in the Sandantic Ocean. It is the first Sandantic hurricane season on record, with the SHMC taking control of the basin. This season runs from May 1 to December 1. The first storm, Alyssa, formed on May 10.

Seasonal forecasts
Feel free to add in your predictions if you want :) On March 1, 2019, the SHMC made their predictions ahead of the season, calling for 20 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. On May 3, 2019, however, the SHMC made another prediction for this season calling for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. On May 13, 2019, the HLMA released their predictions, calling for 14-18 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.

Outlooks, Advisories and Forecasts


Tropical Weather Outlook Sandy Hurricane and Monsoon Center 905 PM MST Fri Sep 20, 2019

For the Sandantic Ocean, including the Gulf of Manana and Rajaha: The Sandy Hurricane and Monsoon Center has issued their last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Kira, located in the open Sandantic, and is currently issuing advisories on Hurricane Lance, located west-southwest of Neaout, Tropical Storm Molly, located south- southwest of Qaraelden Island, and Tropical Storm Nadia, located in the open Sandantic.

1. A tropical wave (99S) has first been monitored over De Calope Republic and has since then emerged off of land. It is currently going west at roughly 8 mph (13 km/h). Some gradual development is possible over into next week as relatively favorable conditions lie ahead for the disturbance.
 * Formation chance through 48 hours...moderate...40 percent.
 * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A low pressure system has first been monitored in the open Sandantic, going west-northwest at roughly 6 mph (10 km/h). Some gradual development is possible over into next week as it's in relatively warm waters and low wind shear.
 * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
 * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

~Forecaster Sandy

FORECASTS

HURRICANE LANCE

INIT 21/0400Z   95 KT 110 MPH 12H  21/1200Z   95 KT 110 MPH 24H  22/0000Z  100 KT 115 MPH 36H  22/1200Z  100 KT 115 MPH 48H  23/0000Z   95 KT 110 MPH 60H  23/1200Z   85 KT 100 MPH 72H  24/0000Z   75 KT  85 MPH

TROPICAL STORM MOLLY

INIT 21/0400Z  40 KT 45 MPH 12H  21/1200Z  40 KT 45 MPH 24H  22/0000Z  40 KT 45 MPH 36H  22/1200Z  45 KT 50 MPH 48H  23/0000Z  45 KT 50 MPH 60H  23/1200Z  40 KT 45 MPH 72H  24/0000Z  35 KT 40 MPH

TROPICAL STORM NADIA

INIT 20/0400Z  45 KT 50 MPH 12H  20/1200Z  50 KT 60 MPH 24H  21/0000Z  55 KT 65 MPH 36H  21/1200Z  50 KT 60 MPH 48H  22/0000Z  40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H  22/1200Z  40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H  23/0000Z  35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Tropical Storm Alyssa
A tropical low formed in the open Sandantic on May 1, heading towards the Isle of Etri. It rapidly organized and developed into a tropical depression on May 10. It strengthened into a tropical storm on May 11, earning the name Alyssa. Then, it reached its peak intensity the next day, with winds up to 50 mph (85 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 996 mbar. At the same time, it made landfall in the Isle of Etri, 50 mi (80 km) west of the city of Thamenew. It then weakened back into a tropical depression on May 13 due to cooler waters. On the next day, Alyssa transitioned into a extratropical cyclone.

2 deaths from the Isle of Etri have been reported after the storm had struck. The total damage in the country is reported to be about $850 thousand (USD).

TCR update:

45 mph -> 50 mph

997 mbar -> 996 mbar

Duration unchanged; 1 more TS dot added to track.

Tropical Storm Caspar
TCR update:

40 mph -> 45 mph

Pressure stays the same

2 TS dots added; duration stays the same

Hurricane Darcey
A tropical wave was first noted over De Caloupe Republic in early-July, moving rapidly toward the ocean. The SHMC then gave it a low chance of forming for the next few days. It gradually organized, it’s well-organized convection appearing on the storm. The SHMC gave it a high chance of forming on July 11. An Air Force Reconnaissance Flight reported gale-force winds more than halfway around the center of the system and it had defined a center of circulation, therefore the system was designated as 04S. The tropical depression eventually intensified into a TS on July 12, earning the name Darcey. Two days later, it intensified into a hurricane, the second one of the season. The hurricane soon slowed down intensification, due to some dry air interacting with the storm. That didn’t stop it from intensifying into a major hurricane on July 17, the first one of the season. Darcey continued to slow down its intensification even more, taking about 66 hours for it to become a Category 4 hurricane on July 20. It reached its peak intensity early the next day, with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph (220 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 953 mbar. Darcey then encountered an eyewall replacement cycle, weakening back to a Category 3 hurricane on July 22. Unfortunately for the storm, it never restrengthened after its peak due to increasing wind shear, and weakened below major hurricane status on July 23. While approaching the country of Shallmaar, it weakened to a tropical storm on July 25 before making landfall a few hours later. It slowly abated inland, weakening to a tropical depression early on July 26 before degenerating to a remnant low later that day.

Darcey inflicted about $295 million (USD) and caused 7 deaths from Shallmaar alone.

Hurricane Jackie
A tropical wave formed over De Calope Republic on August 26, emerging off from land early the next day. The wave was first monitored by the Sandy Hurricane and Monsoon Center on August 28, when the wave was given a 20 percent chance of formation for the next 5 days at that time. The disturbance steadily organized and thunderstorm activity increased over very warm waters and low wind shear. On September 3 at 7:00 pm MST, the well-organized storm developed as Tropical Depression 11S, situated hundreds of miles southeast of Neaout. The storm continued its organization as it progressed west, and it intensified into a tropical storm a day later, at which time it was assigned the name Jackie by the SHMC.

Storm names
The following list of names are given to tropical cyclones during 2019. Those names are submitted by the Sandy Hurricane and Monsoon Center and it goes in girl-girl-boy order. If the list is exhausted, then the Greeks will be used.