User blog:VileMaster/GIHC 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook 2

It is April 2018 now, and now that we're past the so-called "spring predictability barrier", GIHC has decided now is the best time to release their new forecast. The GIHC now anticipates a near average season, due to changed conditions. An ACE value of 75-110 units is also predicted.
 * 11-14 Named Storms
 * 5-7 Hurricanes
 * 2-3 Major Hurricanes

Climatology Factors
GIHC has mainly reduced their forecast due to the increasing likelyhood of el nino, and the current SST pattern seems to be reflecting that already. The La Nina is quickly fading away, and it seems probable this el nino could come in place during late fall or winter. However, there is always the chance that we could remain in warm neutral ENSO conditions. According to climatology, El Nino is preceded by a cooling tropical atlantic and a quick warming of the Pacific, which seems to be occurring. It should be noted that while 2018 could be inactive, the later lack of el nino could lead to an active 2019.

Potential Threats
The chances of a storm threatening certain areas are varied right now. But if el nino forms, there will be a reduced risk of Atlantic tropical cyclones impacting the Caribbean, and an increased likelyhood of storms impacting Bermuda or Atlantic Canada. GIHC currently expects 2-3 U.S landfalling cyclones, with 1-2 being hurricanes and 0-1 major hurricanes. We will be back in June or July with a final forecast.