User blog:Bobnekaro/2015-16 Arctic Cyclone Season: Will It Be Hyperactive?

Bob Nekaro, BNWC CEO

We're still two weeks away from the official start of the Arctic Cyclone Season for 2015-16, and we have already had two named storms - Polar Cyclone Angel, which formed earlier this month and reached 90 mph winds - and Polar Storm Bell, a newly-formed storm that is expected to quickly weaken and dissipate.

But will the activity persist?

"It's highly uncertain about how many storms we will get.  We don't know for sure how active this season will be," said the BNWC. However, they predicted 18 named storms, 10 polar cyclones and 3 major cyclones, which would be an above-average, but not hyperactive, season. It's going to be an interesting season, considering the El Nino event as well as the record cold water temperatures in the Atlantic.



Shear from El Nino vs. Cold Blob In Atlantic

There's a blob of cold water in the north-central Atlantic which could allow for some unusually strong storms due to the perfect temperatures for polar cyclone formation. However, wind shear from the El Nino could slightly limit activity in this region, although it is doubtful that the shear will have as much impact as it did on Atlantic hurricanes. These two forces will be fighting each other, which means that an inactive or hyperactive season is possible.

North Pole doesn't appear to be a concern, as of now

Latest ensemble runs from the BNWC predict that Polar Storm Bell will dissipate on Tuesday as it interacts with land, and will likely not enter the Baffin Bay as previously expected. However, they noted that it is still possible. No BNWC ensembles predict that any polar cyclones will impact the North Pole area any time soon, although they were nearly hit by Polar Cyclone Angel earlier this month, which instead took an unusual eastward turn and became post-polar due to interaction with the remnants of Hurricane Joaquin.

Icelandic Polar Waves: When Do They Start?

The longest-lived and strongest Polar Cyclones usually originate from polar waves that move off the coast of Iceland. These types of systems do not usually start occuring until mid-November, and usually last for the rest of the season. Icelandic Polar Waves account for 85% of Major Polar Cyclones (winds of >110 mph), and 50% of all polar storms and cyclones.

The breakdown

This appears as if it will be the most interesting polar storm season ever due to the fact that storms will be named and tracked for the first time! We are still predicting 18 named storms, 10 polar cyclones and 5 major cyclones.

-BNWC