2019 Atlantic hurricane season (Sandy156)

''Note, this season is nearing completion. This will be completed in early February.''

The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season was a slightly above-average season with 14 named storms forming this year. The season officially started on June 1 and ended on November 30, although systems may form at any time of the year, as shown with Tropical Storm Andrea, which formed on May 28. Barry killed one person in Massachusetts due to rip currents produced by this storm. Dorian became the strongest hurricane to impact the state of Virginia since Isabel in 2003. Fernand became the first major hurricane of the season reaching it on August 7. It was the strongest storm of the season, with 155 mph (250 km/h) winds and a minimum pressure of 927 mbar. It also was the deadliest storm of the season, causing 243 fatalities direct and indirect. Gabrielle made landfall in the state of Louisiana causing moderate flooding and rain in there. Jerry, a strong Category 3 major hurricane, caused major damage and flooding mainly in the Yucatan Peninsula. It was the third costliest hurricane of the season, causing just more than half a billion dollars (USD) of damages. Karen, right after its peak intensity, struck Bermuda as a moderate Category 2. Later, it will go on to make landfall in Newfoundland as a tropical storm.

Seasonal forecasts
Ahead of and during the season, several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) will form during a season and/or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies include the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of University College London, the NOAA and Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. Some of these forecasts also take into consideration what happened in previous seasons and an ongoing La Niña event that had recently formed in November 2017. On average, an Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained twelve tropical storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of between 66 and 103 units.

Pre-season outlooks
The first forecast for the year was released by TSR on December 11, 2018, which predicted a slightly below-average season in 2019, with a total of 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, due to the anticipated presence of El Niño conditions during the season.

Tropical Storm Andrea
A tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa on May 22, meandering the southeastern Atlantic for a few days. On May 26, the NHC began tracking it about 1500 mi (2400 km) west of Cape Verde. On the morning of May 28, it developed into Tropical Depression One. Despite cooler waters, it strengthened into a tropical storm, the NHC naming it Andrea the next day. It reached its peak intensity on the evening of May 29, with 45 mph winds and 997 mbar pressure. It transitioned into a extratropical cyclone on May 30. No deaths and damages were reported from this storm.

Tropical Storm Barry
The NHC began tracking a tropical low 400 mi (650 km) east of The Bahamas on June 11. On the morning of June 14, the system developed into Tropical Depression Two. Warm waters and low wind shear made the system strengthen into Tropical Storm Barry the next day. On the evening of June 15, it reached its peak intensity, with 65 mph winds and 990 mbar pressure. On June 16, it transitioned into a extratropical cyclone 550 mi (900 km) east of Newfoundland. One person in Massachusetts was swept away by a rip current that was produced by this storm. However, no damages were reported from this storm.

Hurricane Chantal
A tropical wave emerged from Africa on June 21. It became more organized and it entered warm waters which it developed into Tropical Depression Three on June 24. It curved to the north-northeast while it stayed a tropical depression. On the afternoon of July 25, it strengthened into Tropical Storm Chantal. It then moved west-northwest, staying in warm waters. The morning of July 27, it strengthened into a hurricane, now moving north-northeast. It reached its peak intensity that evening, with 90 mph winds and 979 mbar pressure. After that, it begin to gradually weaken, now entering cooler waters. It remained a hurricane until the evening of July 28, when it fell below hurricane strength. The next day, it transitioned into an extratropical cyclone, about 600 mi (970 km) south-southwest of the Azores. No deaths and damages were reported from this storm.

Hurricane Dorian
On July 3, the NHC started monitoring an area of disturbance in the open Atlantic Ocean. Despite cooler waters and moderate wind shear, it became more organized and on July 5, the NHC started issuing advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four. The system gradually strengthened over time and on July 7, it was declared a tropical storm, the NHC naming it Dorian. With lower wind shear and slightly warmer waters, this storm strengthened gradually. On the afternoon of July 8, it intensified into a hurricane, with 80 mph winds. On the evening of July 9, it further strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane, about 350 mi (565 km) east-southeast from Bermuda. It reached its peak intensity the next day, with 105 mph winds and 975 mbar pressure. After that, it started gradually weakening, cooler waters impacted the hurricane. It weakened to a Category 1 on the evening of July 11, approaching the state of Virginia. It made landfall on July 13, with sustained winds of 80 mph and a minimum central pressure of 987 mbar. It further weakened to a tropical storm on July 14. It degenerated into a remnant low on the morning of July 15, reaching Canada that evening.

Tropical Storm Erin
On July 9, a tropical wave moved west coast of Africa, where it headed west for several days. On July 16, it was recognized and being tracked by the NHC. It was in warmer waters and low wind shear is impacting them. On July 19 18:00 UTC, it developed into Tropical Depression Five as it approached the Lesser Antilles. It then passed over them and strengthened into Tropical Storm Erin on July 20 12:00 UTC. While it was a tropical storm, wind shear took over the storm, preventing it to intensify any further. It gradually weakened and on July 21, it weakened below tropical storm strength. A couple days later, it degenerated into a remnant low, which it will dissipate on July 26.

Hurricane Fernand
On July 28, a low-pressure system formed in the open Atlantic Ocean. A couple of days later, the NHC begin to track it, giving it a 20% chance of forming. The system gradually organized and strengthened over warm waters. On the evening of July 31, the NHC increased the chances to 90%, and it also designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Six. It continued to organize, gaining enough strength and organization to become a tropical storm on August 2 18:00 UTC, named Fernand by the NHC. While being a tropical storm, it headed west-southwest toward the island of Guadeloupe, part of the Lesser Antilles, while it gradually intensified. It made a direct hit on Guadeloupe on August 3 06:00 UTC, with sustained winds of 55 mph (90 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 993 mbar. After its direct hit, Fernand now headed west, pacing in the Caribbean Sea. On August 4 00:00 UTC, it strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane and the next day, it was upgraded to a Category 2. It reached its initial peak intensity the next morning, with winds of 100 mph (160 km/h) and minimum pressure of 980 mbar. After being upgraded, wind shear started to take over, temporarily preventing it from intensifying and it started to weaken, dwindling back into a Category 1 on August 5 12:00 UTC. It eventually fell below hurricane strength six hours later. Before it could diminish any further, wind shear retreated from the storm abruptly, allowing the storm to rapidly strengthen due to very warm waters and low to no wind shear. It became a hurricane on August 6 00:00 UTC, a major hurricane 18 hours later, and a Category 4 hurricane on August 7 06:00 UTC, curving toward the northeast. On August 8 00:00 UTC, Fernand reached its peak intensity as a high-end Category 4 with winds up to 155 mph (250 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 927 mbar. After reaching its peak, it began an eyewall replacement cycle, it ever so slightly weakened to 150 mph (240 km/h) and 931 mbar as it was nearing Florida. On the evening of the same day, Fernand made landfall near the city of Sarasota, rapidly weakening inland. It fell below major hurricane-strength just more than 6 hours after its landfall. It was a Category 1 hurricane after it finished crossing Florida. It weakened into a tropical storm on August 9 12:00 UTC, as it entered cooler waters. It briefly intensified into a hurricane less than 12 hours later before it dwindled back to a tropical storm. It diminished into a tropical depression on August 11 and it finally became a remnant low later the same day.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle
On August 11, a low-pressure area formed in the Western Caribbean Sea. It drifted toward the Yucatan Peninsula, very gradually organizing. On August 13, it was recognized by the NHC and gave it a low chance of forming. That same day, it struck the Yucatan Peninsula as a tropical low. Once it entered the Gulf of Mexico, it started to rapidly organize abruptly. On August 15, it developed into Tropical Depression Seven, now heading north. Although in warmer waters, wind shear slightly increased causing even slower intensification. By the next day, wind shear broke though the storm, the storm started to strengthen. On the evening of August 16, it intensified into Tropical Storm Gabrielle, now approaching the state of Louisiana. The next morning, it reached its peak intensity, with 45 mph (75 km/h) winds and a minimum pressure of 1001 mbar before making its landfall at Louisiana. While at landfall, it gradually weakened, becoming a tropical depression that evening and further dissipating inland on August 18, right over Arkansas.

Hurricane Humberto
A tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa on August 15. For a few days, it meandered in the open Atlantic, gradually orginizing. On August 19, it was first noticed by the NHC, giving it a low chance of formation. On August 21, it developed into a tropical depression, heading north-northwest. Water temperatures increased gradually, the storm strengthening more. On August 22 00:00 UTC, it intensified into Tropical Storm Humberto, shifting its direction to west-northwest. At 15:00 UTC that same day, it abruptly shifted to north-northeast, while still intensifying. On August 23 00:00 UTC, it was upgraded into a hurricane and 12 hours later, it reached its peak intensity, with winds up to 85 mph (140 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 987 mbar. After that, colder waters came rushing in, causing the hurricane to gradually weaken. On August 24 12:00 UTC, it weakened back to a tropical storm and the next morning, weakened further to a tropical depression. On August 25 00:00 UTC, it eventually degenerated into a remnant low.

For a day, it meandered in the ocean, the water temperatures very gradually increasing. On August 26 00:00 UTC, it strengthened back to a tropical depression. Six hours later, it intensified into a weak tropical storm. After that, it started its transition into an extratropical cyclone, fully becoming extratropical on August 27 06:00 UTC.

Tropical Storm Imelda
Another tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa on September 1. It headed west-northwest for a couple of days, seeing no sign of development. On September 3, it was first recognized by the NHC. Moderate environment conditions made the system develop into Tropical Depression Nine. The next morning, it intensified into Tropical Storm Imelda and it also reached its peak intensity with 40 mph (65 km/h) and 1003 mbar. Wind shear hit the storm hard, which causes it to weaken back to a tropical depression 12 hours later. It dissipated on September 6.

Tropical Depression Ten
A low pressure area formed 100 mi (160 km) west of Cape Verde on September 2. The NHC began tracking it on September 4. It developed in warm waters the next day. Strong wind shear prevented the storm from intensifying any further, pacing in the open Atlantic for a few days. On September 8, it was downgraded to a remnant low. It was later absorbed by a stronger low pressure system in which it would later become Hurricane Jerry (see below).

Hurricane Jerry
An area of low pressure formed in the open Atlantic on September 4. It pacing along the Atlantic, gradually organizing in warm waters. The next day, it absorbed the remnants of Tropical Depression Ten. On September 6, it was recognized by the NHC and gave it a low chance of forming in the next 48 hours. The next day, however, the NHC gave it an 90% chance of forming, and then designated it as a potential cyclone. Potential Cyclone Eleven kept on organizing and strengthening and on the afternoon of September 8, it was classified as a tropical storm, named Jerry. Abruptly, the storm rapidly intensified, becoming a hurricane on September 9 00:00 UTC. 18 hours while heading west to the Lesser Antilles, it strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane. 12 hours later on September 10 06:00 UTC, it made a direct hit on Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, with 105 mph (170 km/h) maximum winds and a minimum pressure of 978 mbar. After it entered the Caribbean Sea, it started to weaken briefly falling back into a Category 1 at 18:00 UTC, before it strengthened back into a Category 2 again a few hours later. On September 11 18:00 UTC, it intensified into a Category 3 major hurricane and 18 hours later, reached its peak intensity with sustained winds of 125 mph (205 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 955 mbar. After that, it underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, causing it to gradually weaken. On September 13 18:00 UTC, it weakened back to a Category 2 and 18 hours later, weakened further to a Category 1. This hurricane abruptly stopped its eyewall replacement cycle and temporary halted weakening. On September 15 00:00 UTC, strengthened back into a Category 2 hurricane, while approaching the Yucatan Peninsula. Due to its interaction with land, it started to gradually weaken, and at 18:00 UTC that day, it fell back into a Category 1. On September 16 12:00 UTC, Jerry made landfall in the Yucatan with sustained winds of 80 mph (130 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 994 mbar. It started to weaken more quickly, becoming a tropical storm at 18:00 UTC and a tropical depression the next day at 06:00 UTC. Entering right in the Gulf of Mexico, it intensified a little, holding tropical storm strength for 12 hours until weakening back to a tropical depression. It made landfall in Veracruz on September 18 00:00 UTC and finally dissipating 6 hours later.

Hurricane Karen
A low pressure area formed on September 25, heading northwest. It was recognized by the NHC that following day, giving it a low chance of forming. It then after being recognized, abruptly organized over slightly warm waters. On September 27 12:00 UTC, the NHC quickly designated it as Potential Cyclone Twelve, after it was given an 80% chance of forming. It eventually became a tropical storm the next day, the NHC naming it Karen. It slowly turned northwest as it remained a tropical storm for a couple of days. On September 30 00:00 UTC, it weakened to a tropical depression, now beginning to loop around. The next day, it completed its small loop and that same time, intensified back into a tropical storm, now curving slightly toward the island of Bermuda. On October 1st 00:00 UTC, it strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane and then 12 hours later, it further intensified into a Category 2. On October 2 00:00 UTC, it reached its peak intensity with sustained winds of 100 mph (155 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 982 mbar. 6 hours later, it made a direct hit on Bermuda while holding on to this intensity. After its direct hit, it gradually weakened due to cooler waters, becoming a Category 1 12 hours later. Then, it abruptly turned northeast. Despite those cooler waters, it didn’t transition into an extratropical cyclone yet. On October 4 06:00 UTC, it weakened to a tropical storm, heading now north-northeast toward the big island of Newfoundland. On October 5 00:00 UTC, it eventually made landfall there, quickly transitioning into an extratropical cyclone a few hours later.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo
A low pressure area formed on September 28, over slightly cool waters. The NHC began to track it the next day, while gradually organizing despite cooler waters. On October 1st 12:00 UTC, it was designated as Tropical Depression Thirteen, now very slowly strengthening. After heading north, it then turned east and immediately after turning, it intensified into Tropical Storm Lorenzo, on October 2nd 12:00 UTC. It reached its peak intensity 6 hours later, with 60 mph (95 km/h) maximum winds and a minimum pressure of 993 mbar. After its peak, wind shear started to get hold of the storm, gradually weakening the storm. It diminished to a tropical depression on October 3 12:00 UTC. This depression didn’t dissipate until October 4 18:00 UTC, when it was downgraded to a remnant low.

Hurricane Melissa
On October 1st, a tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa. It paced west for a few days, gradually organizing due to very warm waters. On October 4, the NHC started tracking the system, giving it a low chance of forming. On October 6 18:00 UTC, it eventually developed into Tropical Depression Fourteen. It strengthened slightly gradually and on October 8 00:00 UTC, it intensified into Tropical Storm Melissa.

Tropical Storm Nestor
On October 28, the NHC began tracking a low-pressure area 500 mi (805 km) east-southeast of Bermuda. This system gradually organized the upcoming few days despite cooler waters. On October 31 18:00 UTC, it developed into Tropical Depression Fifteen, still gradually intensifying. The next day at 18:00 UTC, it then strengthened into a tropical storm, named Nestor. 6 hours later, it reached its peak intensity, with 45 mph (75 km/h) winds and a minimum pressure of 998 mbar. After that, it started transitioning into a extratropical cyclone, turning northwest toward Newfoundland. But before it could make landfall, it fully transitioned only 50 mi (80 km/h) from Newfoundland.

Subtropical Depression Sixteen
A tropical low forming in the upper Atlantic on November 14. It gradually organized despite cooler waters over the few days. On November 16, it developed into Subtropical Depression Sixteen. For a day, it headed west-northwest with no change of strength and a day later, it transitioned into a weak extratropical cyclone, without even becoming fully tropical.

Storm names
The following list of names was used for named storms that formed in the North Atlantic in 2019. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2025 season. This is the same list used in the 2013 season, with the exception of the name Imelda, which replaced Ingrid. The names Imelda and Nestor were used for the first time this season.

Retirement
On April 2020, the names Fernand and Melissa were retired due to the devastation it did in Florida and the East Coast of the U.S. They will be replaced with Finley and Melanie for the 2025 season.

Season effects
This is a table of all the storms that have formed in the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s), denoted in parentheses, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a tropical wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in USD. Potential tropical cyclones are not included in this table.