Bob Nekaro Weather Center/ENSO Outlook

BOB NEKARO WEATHER CENTER EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION DISCUSSION

MAY 14, 2016

EL NINO APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED. WE EXPECT LA NINA TO FORM IN THE COMING MONTHS...SUBSURFACE SST ANOMALIES IN THE PACIFIC ARE WELL BELOW AVERAGE. THIS INDICATES AN ONCOMING LA NINA EVENT. WE EXPECT A MODERATELY STRONG LA NINA TO FORM IN 2016-17...HOWEVER THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE CHANCE ENSO WILL REMAIN NEUTRAL, WITH NO REALISTIC EXPECTATION FOR A CONTINUATION OF EL NINO. HOWEVER, THE PDO INDEX IN THE PACIFIC WILL LIKELY PREVENT THIS LA NINA FROM BECOMING A VERY STRONG ONE...

THE LATEST SST ANOMALIES ARE: NINO 1.2 = +0.5C NINO 3 = +0.4C NINO 3.4 = +0.5C NINO 4 = +0.6C

ENSO EVENT FORECAST FOR 2016-17: LA NINA - 75% NEUTRAL - 20% EL NINO - 5%

ENSO FORECAST: JUNE 2016 - NEUTRAL, -0.2C JULY 2016 - WEAK LA NINA, -0.5C AUGUST 2016 - WEAK LA NINA, -0.8C SEPTEMBER 2016 - MODERATE LA NINA, -1.0C OCTOBER 2016 - MODERATE LA NINA, -1.1C NOVEMBER 2016 - MODERATE LA NINA, -1.0C