2016 Atlantic hurricane season (Live Version) (Sassmaster15)

The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing annual event of tropical cyclone formation in the North Atlantic ocean. The season began on June 1 and will conclude on November 30; these are the dates that conventionally limit tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic basin and are adopted by convention. However, tropical cyclone formation is possible any time of the year. As of July 24, 2016, the season's first named storm, Alex, developed in the Gulf of Mexico, nearly two months after the official start.

To this point, most forecasting groups have expected this season to be near average to very active, due to a combination of factors including an expected transition to La Niña and warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and Western Atlantic, despite near-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region near Cape Verde.

Seasonal Forecasts
The SMWC and all partnering centers will post their predictions in the box below:

Tropical Outlook
TROPICAL OUTLOOK CLEVELAND, OH 12 AM EDT, SUN JULY 24

Tropical Storm ALEX (SPECIAL ADVISORY)

...FIRST NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE...

TROPICAL STORM Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 KT (45 MPH), Minimum Pressure: 1003 mbar Movement: NNE at 23 MPH

For a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico...The season's first named storm, Alex, has developed out of a surface low 150 nautical miles west of the Florida Keys. A vigorous circulation has already appeared on satellite imagery, with banding features evident in both the western and eastern quadrants of the eyewall. Further intensification is expected as Alex continues to track east-northeast towards the United States Gulf Coast. Residents should monitor the progression of the cyclone as landfall at hurricane intensity is not unlikely somewhere along the Gulf Coast in the next one to two days.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY

SUNDAY AT 12 PM.....65 KT...75 MPH/CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE SUNDAY AT 8 PM......70 KT...80 MPH/CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LANDFALL IN ALABAMA/FLORIDA MONDAY AT 8 PM......55 KT...65 MPH/TROPICAL STORM INLAND TUESDAY AT 8 PM.....40 KT...45 MPH/POST-TROP INLAND WEDNESDAY AT 8 PM...DISSIPATED

ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR AREAS EXTENDING 10 TO 20 MILES WEST OF PLAYA DEL CARMEN...LIKELY TO BE DISCONTINUED AT THE NEXT ADVISORY RIP CURRENT WATCH FOR WATERS WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS TO EASTERN LOUISIANA RIP CURRENT WARNING FOR WATERS SOUTH OF GRAND ISLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS ADDITIONAL HEAVY SURF WARNINGS FOR WATERS NEAR COZUMEL AND OTHER COASTAL AREAS ALONG THE YUCATÁN PENINSULA...INCLUDING CANCÚN

MARINE ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR WATERS EAST OF GRANDE ISLE, LOUISIANA TO PENSACOLA BAY IN FLORIDA SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS

Next full update issued Sunday, July 24 at 12 PM EDT. In the meantime, special advisories may be issued if conditions warrant.

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FORECASTER SASSMASTER

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Tropical Storm Alex
On July 22, an area of disturbed weather traveling through the Caribbean later shifted to the northwest after a building ridge of high pressure to the southwest induced the directional change. Initially, another trough ahead of the disturbance resulted in it stalling just to the southwest of Cuba. However, the trough soon dissipated and the system later became the season's first tropical depression the next day. Continuing to travel on a near-northernly track to the west of Cuba, lessening wind shear allowed for additional intensification, thus, the system became Tropical Storm Alex the same day. As of the most recent SMWC advisory, Alex has entered the Gulf of Mexico and is situated to the west of the Dry Tortugas. With a current intensity of 40 knots, 1003 millibars, Alex is forecasted to steadily intensify. There is a likely probability that Alex will become the season's first hurricane. Nevertheless, a destructive landfall is expected somewhere along the United States Gulf Coast in coming days.

Storm Names
The following list of names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2016. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2017. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2022 season. This is the same list used in the 2010 season, with the exception of Ian and Tobias, which replaced Igor and Tomas, respectively.