User blog:Bobnekaro/El Nino seems to be explosively weakening

You have likely heard about El Nino, a warming of tropical Pacific waters. The current event, which began last March, is one of the strongest on record and was a "Very Strong El Nino" at peak. However, it is RAPIDLY weakening; SST anomalies as of 3PM today have dropped to +1.26C from +3.1C back in November. This is a sign that El Nino is collapsing....and will most likely be replaced with La Nina.

La Nina is the opposite of El Nino and is characterized by cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. It enhances Atlantic hurricane activity while supressing Pacific hurricane activity. Due to the rapid weakening of El Nino as seen recently, El Nino will likely be long gone by the start of hurricane season. This could mean an active Atlantic hurricane season.

Subsurface SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific are negative, which will likely result in La Nina. However, there is a significant chance ENSO will remain neutral, although La Nina is the most likely scenario as of now. Here is our forecast for the 2016-17 ENSO:

The BNWC Forecast for the 2016-17 ENSO:
 * La Nina - 70% Chance
 * Neutral - 25% Chance
 * El Nino - 5% Chance