User blog:Bobnekaro/Possible Subpolar Storm late next week?

By Bob Nekaro, BNWC Chief Meteorologist

Typically, the Arctic is shut down for polar cyclone development during the thick of the summer. There has not been a named polar cyclone ever recorded in the months of June and July. However, this may not be the case in 2016. The BNWC recently released a special polar weather outlook and gave the system a 30% chance of developing into a polar or subpolar cyclone during the next 5 days. An extratropical cyclone is expected to enter the polar region next Thursday or Friday. There is a very narrow window - from next Thursday afternoon to Saturday morning - for this cyclone to acquire some polar characteristics. What complicates this system is what season, 2015-16 or 2016-17, it will officially be a part of. If it forms after 00:00 UTC on July 1, it will be a 2016-17 storm. If it forms before 00:00 UTC on July 1, it will be a 2015-16 storm. Should it be a 2015-16 storm, it would be named Poinsettia. Should it be a 2016-17 storm, it would be named Advent.

In a very early outlook for the 2016-17 polar cyclone season back on April 20, the BNWC predicted a slightly below average season with 14 named storms, 7 polar cyclones and 3 major polar cyclones.

The next special polar weather outlook on this system will be released by 11:00 PM EDT tonight, as per the BNWC.