2020 Atlantic hurricane season (CobraStrike)

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The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was the second most active annual hurricane season since reliable record began in 1851, and was only the second season to use the Greek alphabet. The year featured an anomalously high number of tropical cyclones affect Central America, due to a strong Azores High. The season officially began on June 1 and ended on November 30, dates that conventionally delimit the period during each year in which tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the North Atlantic. The first system, Arthur, developed on June 18 in the western Caribbean. Activity was sparse throughout the rest of the month and July. However, towards the peak of the season, tropical activity rapidly increased, with multiple consecutive storms forming off of Cape Verde. Activity waned towards the end of the season, with the final storm, Alpha, dissipated on November 26.

Pre-season forecasts by the NOAA – the official forecasting agency for the northern Atlantic – predicted a generally average season, citing the return of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation from 2018 and a forecast weak El Niño, which inhibits tropical cyclone activity in the basin. Other prediction consortiums also projected a generally average season. However, an unexpected improvement in cyclogenic conditions in the Atlantic resulted in raised forecasts. Colorado State University projected the least active season, with 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, while the NOAA projected the most active season in their mid-season outlook, with 13–18 named storms, 6–12 hurricanes, and 3–4 major hurricanes.

Effects of tropical cyclones on land during the year were widespread, though damage was heavily concentrated on Central America, particularly Belize and Nicaragua. The first storm of the season, Arthur, impacted areas of the Lesser Antilles in mid-June. Hurricane Fay in early August brought severe flooding to areas of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, resulting in 251 deaths, the most for the region since Hurricane Stan in 2005. The strongest tropical cyclone during the season, Marco, reached Category 5 hurricane intensity before striking Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, causing extensive damage and over a thousand deaths. The costliest and deadliest hurricane of the season was Hurricane Nicholas, which impacted Central America and Florida, causing $16 billion in damage and 2,301 deaths. Collectively, storms during 2020 caused $56.5 billion in damage and 5,702 fatalities, making it the costliest hurricane season since 2012 and the deadliest hurricane season since 1998.

Seasonal forecasts
In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States NOAA's National Hurricane and Climate Prediction Center's, Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray and their associates at CSU, Tropical Storm Risk, and the United Kingdom's Met Office. The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. As stated by NOAA and CSU, an average Atlantic hurricane season between 1981–2010 contains roughly 12 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index of 66–103 units. NOAA typically categorizes a season as either above-average, average, of below-average based on the cumulative ACE Index; however, the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season is considered occasionally as well.

Pre-season forecasts
On December 7, 2019, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a public consortium consisting of experts on insurance, risk management, and seasonal climate forecasting at University College London, issued an extended-range forecast predicting an average hurricane season. In its report, TSR noted that tropical cyclone activity could be about 2% above the 1950–2010 average, with 12.2 (±4.4) tropical storms, 6.4 (±3.7) hurricanes, and 1.3 (±0.8) major hurricanes anticipated, and a cumulative ACE index of 102 (±64). Later that month on December 21, Weather Services International (WSI) issued an extended-range forecast predicting a near average hurricane season. In its forecast, WSI noted that an unprecedented return of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation beginning in 2018, combined with a forecast strengthening El Niño, would result in a near-average season with 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. They also predicted an above-average probability of a hurricane landfall, with a heavily elevated chance on the Greater Antilles and a slightly reduced chance along the East Coast of the United States, citing a stronger Bermuda High. On April 4, 2020, Colorado State University (CSU) issued their updated forecast for the season, calling for a below-normal season due to an increased chance for the development of an El Niño during the season. In April 2012, TSR issued their update forecast for the season, slightly raising their forecast due to a large model spread for El Niño projections.

On May 24, 2020, the NOAA released their forecast for the season, which echoed the sentiment of prior forecasts. The agency predicted a near-normal season, with eleven to fourteen named storms, four to six hurricanes, and one to two major hurricanes. The NOAA based its forecast on higher wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures in the Main Development Region of the Eastern Atlantic. Gerry Bell, lead seasonal forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, added the main uncertainty in the outlook was how much below or above average the 2020 season would be, and if the neutral El Niño/Southern Oscillation would strengthen or weaken to a La Niña. That same day, the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO) issued a forecast of a slightly above average season. They predicted 14 named storms with a 70% chance that the number would be between 7 and 16. However, they do not issue forecasts on the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes. They also predicted an ACE index of 112 with a 70% chance that the index would be in the range 35 to 167. On May 30, 2012, the Florida State University for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (FSU COAPS) issued its annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast. The organization predicted 15 named storms, including 8 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 124.

Mid-season forecasts
On June 1, Klotzbach's team issued their updated forecast for the 2020 season, predicting fifteen named storms and seven hurricanes, of which four of the seven would further intensify into major hurricanes. The university stated that there was an unexpected warming of Atlantic sea surface temperatures, and a high amount of uncertainty concerning whether the neutral ENSO conditions would continue to decrease or further develop in time to hinder tropical development in the Atlantic. They also stated there was a generally average chance of a major hurricane impacting the United States coastline in 2020.

On June 6, Tropical Storm Risk released their second updated forecast for the season, predicting seventeen named storms, eight hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. In addition, the agency called for an Accumulated Cyclone Energy index of 135. Above average sea surface temperatures and lesser wind shear was cited for increased activity compared to previous seasons. Tropical Storm Risk continued with their forecast of a near-average probability of a United States impact during the season using the 1950–2011 long-term normal, and a near-average chance of a United States landfall by the recent 2002–2011 normal.

On August 9, 2020, the NOAA issued their mid-season outlook for the remainder of the 2020 season, drastically upping their final numbers. The agency predicted between thirteen and eighteen named storms, six to twelve hurricanes, and three to four major hurricanes. Gerry Bell cited warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and lesser than average wind shear.