Hurricane Tobias (2022)

Hurricane Tobias was the most powerful tropical cyclone on record in the Atlantic, as well as the third most intense worldwide, behind 2015's Hurricane Patricia and 1979's Typhoon Tip. Part of the record-breaking 2022 Atlantic hurricane season (which also included multiple other extremely intense tropical cyclones), Tobias was a classic Cape Verde hurricane and the nineteenth storm, fourteenth hurricane, tenth major hurricane and the fourth Category 5 hurricane of the season. Along with that, Tobias was the most destructive tropical cyclone of the season and worldwide, and the deadliest tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin.

A tropical wave emerged off the West coast of Africa and travelled across the Atlantic, changing intensities rapidly. During this phase of its existence, Tobias peaked as a Category 1 hurricane. Once east of the Bahamas, Tobias performed a brief Fujiwhara interaction with the remnants of Tropical Depression Twenty-three. Under extremely favorable conditions, with moisture provided by the remnants of the depression, virtually no wind shear and extremely warm waters, Tobias underwent a period of extremely rapid intensification, the fastest observed worldwide; the storm's winds increased from 65 mph to 190 mph and it's pressure dropped from 991 mbar to 884 in just 4 hours.

Tobias further intensified, soon reaching peak intensity with winds of 210 mph and a central pressure of just 874 mbar. It then went on to make landfall on Florida with winds reaching 205 mph. The storm passed over Florida roughly unscathed, and went on to make two more landfalls; one on Louisiana as a Category 5 with winds of 195 mph, and one on Texas as a Category 4 with winds of 155 mph. Afterwards, the storm travelled inland and rapidly dissipated.

Tobias made three landfalls during its lifetime, two of those as a Category 5 hurricane. The most destructive effects were felt in Florida, where the storm's powerful winds demolished entire communities and severely damaged many more. At least 48,035 deaths occurred across the US, with around 40,000 from Florida alone. Tobias caused roughly 295 billion dollars in damages, becoming the costliest hurricane and natural disaster on record.

Meteorological history


On September 2nd, a vigorous tropical wave emerged into the Atlantic from Africa. On the same day, the NHC began monitoring the wave for further development. With favorable conditions ahead, the wave was expected to intensify soon, the only hindrance being wind shear. On September 3rd, the wave passed south of the Cape Verde islands. On the same day, the area of thunderstorms associated with the wave became better organized, and soon coalesced into an area of low pressure.

With moderate wind shear ahead, the disturbance initially struggled to developed as it moved westwards. However, on late September 4th, wind shear weakened and the disturbance organized more. This lead to it being upgraded to a tropical depression. As the depression continued steadily moving across the ocean, shear diminished and the depression intensified into a tropical storm on September 5th. It was assigned the name Tobias, the first usage of the name in history. Soon afterwards, Tobias became a low-end hurricane on early September 6th.

Almost immediately after becoming a hurricane, Tobias encountered stronger wind shear which exposed the storm's center and Tobias weakened back to a tropical storm. The storm curved slightly northwards, now projected to approach the Bahamas instead of the northern Lesser Antilles. Even after wind shear diminished, cooler waters and dry air ahead of the storm prevented it from reaching hurricane status again. The storm briefly reached hurricane status again on September 8th, before wind shear strengthened and Tobias weakened again.

On September 10th, Tobias abruptly curved northwards, forecast to pass over the Bahamas. With conditions perfect for development, strengthening was expected, with NHC forecasting that Tobias would become a Category 4 storm and pass south of Florida, possibly landfalling on Florida Keys. A day later, the storm passed north of the Bahamas and entered an area with conditions perfect for development; unusually warm waters of 34 °C, no wind shear and plenty of moisture provided by the remnants of Tropical Depression Twenty-three. Under these conditions, Tobias began to rapidly intensify, as the storm developed a relatively large eye of roughly 28 miles and its central pressure dropped. In just 4 hours, the storm's central pressure dropped to 884 mbar and its winds increased to 190 mph. This set the record for the fastest intensification of a tropical cyclone ever recorded worldwide.

After this unusual feat, Tobias went on to intensify further, albeit at a slightly slower pace. Tobias reached peak intensity on September 11th, with a central pressure of 874 mbar and maximum 1 minute sustained winds of 210 mph. Afterwards, Tobias developed double eyewalls, marking the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle. At roughly the same time, the storm made landfall of Florida with winds of 205 mph; this made it the strongest tropical cyclone landfall worldwide.

Over land, Tobias weakened rapidly. The storm's pressure rose up to 905 mbar, and its winds decreased to 175 mph. The storm moved off coast of Florida on September 13th, when it began intensifying again, albeit at a slower rate. The storm's gale wind radius expanded to over 750 miles, as the storm underwent a second eyewall replacement cycle. Tobias ultimately reached its secondary peak intensity on September 15th, with winds of 195 mph and a central pressure of 891 mbar. At this intensity, Tobias made landfall on Louisiana, its eye passing close to New Orleans. This landfall ultimately weakened the storm below Category 5 status, and when it moved over sea again, Tobias bore winds of 145 mph.

Under slightly stronger wind shear, the storm strengthened very slowly, reaching its third and final peak of 155 mph. At this intensity, the powerful cyclone made landfall on Texas on September 16th. Instantly after landfall, the storm began weakening as it curved northwards, passing directly over the city of Houston. Tobias weakened below major hurricane status on the same day and turned extratropical on September 17th. The storm's barely recognizable remnants dissipated over Texas/Louisiana on September 18th.

The Bahamas
Tobias passed north of the Bahamas at peak intensity. It never made landfall on the island chain, however gale force winds reached as far as Great Exuma due to the storm's large size.

Tobias knocked out the power to most of the northern islands of the country. At the height of the storm, over 300,000 people were without access to electricity.

The storm brought massive storm surges and waves to the northern islands. On the island of Abaco, a 30 ft (9,1 m) storm surge submerged the entire Cooper's Town, killing 21 people who refused to evacuate. Powerful winds demolished buildings, downed trees and destroyed vehicles in Marsh Harbour, killing 7 people after their house collapsed on them. Another man died when a tree fell on his house, crushing him. Multiple more people died when their cars got swept away into the sea or off the road. On the northernmost island of the Bahamas, the Grand Bahama, Tobias' powerful winds smacked into the city of Freeport, which was described as "90% destroyed". In the city, entire blocks were completely leveled with the ground, with numerous others severely damaged. A 36 ft (10.9 m) storm surge swept through the city, turning roads into rivers that picked up houses, cars and debris. Over 400 people died in that city alone. The Grand Bahama reported the worst damage, with most of the trees on the island debarked and uprooted, many towns and cities leveled, and over 500 people killed.

Heavy effects were felt on the populous island of New Providence. Storm surge and winds devastated the nation's capital city, Nassau. A 15 ft (4.5 m) surge caused heavy damage to the city's coastal areas, with numerous structures completely leveled with the ground. Strong winds and waves downed power lines and trees and sent boats from the city's marinas into its streets.

All in all, Tobias caused over 600 deaths and as much as 3 billion dollars of damage on the island country. It took numerous months to

United States
Tobias made its first landfall on Florida near peak intensity, causing extreme damage to the state. Later, it made its second landfall on Louisiana as a Category 5, and a final third landfall on Texas as a Category 4 storm. Overall, damage in the United States totaled to around 290 billion dollars, which made Tobias the costliest tropical cyclone ever recorded.