2016 Atlantic usercane season

The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season is a current event in the Atlantic Ocean basin. This season runs throughout 2016. Most commonly, storms form between June and November; however, storms may form at any time of year.

The first storm of the season, Tropical Depression One, formed on January 5th, setting a record for the earliest first storm formation date. One later intensified into Tropical Storm Destiny. The first hurricane of the season was Keranique, which acquired hurricane intensity on February 1.

'''All HHW users that join in 2016 and make at least 5 edits will be in this season. '''If they have at least 10 edits, they will become a "named storm".

Pre-Season Forecasts
These are the pre-season forecasts for the 2016 HHW user season! Remember, named storms are users with at least 10 edits, hurricanes are users that attain at least chat moderator status, and major hurricanes are users that attain at least junior admin status. All users, feel free to make your prediction here!

In late December 2015, pre-season forecasts began to be issued for the 2016 Atlantic hurricane HHW user season. The first agency to predict was the Bob Nekaro Weather Center, which forecast 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes on December 31, a less active season than 2015, mainly due to increased dry air prohibiting development of strong storms. Three days later, four additional weather agencies made 2016 predictions, all predicting an above-average season. The NKWC predicted 24 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, also citing increased dry air but lower wind shear in their prediction. The HTMC followed, predicting 28 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, yet again citing similar conditions forecast to be present during the 2016 season. The HOWC then made a surprising prediction of 34 named storms, 21 hurricanes and 9 major hurricanes, a prediction based off minimal wind shear and dry air. The CDMC also made a prediction, predicting 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. The next day the SMHFTC came in with a prediction of 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. In total, nearly all of the forecasts predict an above-average season due to the La Nina expected to be present.

Tropical Outlook
For Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki:

Active Cyclones
Tropical Depression DESTINY

Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph, minimum pressure: 1002 mbar

Tropical Depression DESTINY has re-generated back into a tropical depression, due to some convection today. Significant intensification is not currently expected; however, it is still a possibility.

Late Feb 2016 - 35 MPH

Late Mar 2016 - 35 MPH

Late Apr 2016 - 35 MPH

Late May 2016 - 35 MPH

Hurricane BITTERSWEET

REISSUED ADVISORY

Maximum sustained winds: 100 mph, minimum pressure: 980 mbar

Hurricane Bittersweet has intensified into a Category 2 hurricane, with winds of 85 kt being found according to a recon flight. Its pressure has also slightly dropped, and due to this, we have slightly increased our forecast trajectory prediction.

Late Feb 2016 - 105 MPH

Late Mar 2016 - 105 MPH

Late Apr 2016 - 110 MPH

Late May 2016 - 115 MPH

Justification for reissue - Corrected pressure and trajectory

Hurricane KERANIQUE

Maximum sustained winds: 105 mph, minimum pressure: 968 mbar

Keranique continues to intensify. Keranique's winds have been risen to 90 kt. There is still uncertainty, but some forecast models show a very strong storm towards the end of the forecast period.

Mid Feb 2016 - 105 MPH

Late Feb 2016 - 110 MPH

Late Mar 2016 - 115 MPH

Late Apr 2016 - 120 MPH

Remnants of MATTHEW

Maximum sustained winds: 25 mph, minimum pressure: 1014 mbar

Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated. Regeneration at this time is not expected.

Tropical Storm DARREN

Maximum sustained winds: 55 mph, minimum pressure: 998 mbar

Tropical Storm DARREN, roughly 165 miles northeast of the Bahamas, has intensified to 45 mph,1001 mbar. We expect Darren to intensify further throughout the forecast period to a hurricane.

Late Feb 2016 - 60 MPH

Late Mar 2016 - 75 MPH

Late Apr 2016 - 85 MPH

Late May 2016 - 90 MPH

Tropical Depression ELEVEN

Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph, minimum pressure: 1004 mbar

A tropical depression has developed about 100 miles southwest of Cape Verde. Marginal environmental conditions should result in slow intensification.

Late Feb 2016 - 35 mph

Late Mar 2016 - 40 mph

Late Apr 2016 - 40 mph

Late May 2016 - 45 mph

Invests
Invest 90U

A new non-tropical area of low pressure has developed about 100 miles south of Bermuda. This system could acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics over the coming days while it moves northward slowly at 1 mph. It is producing winds in excess of 25 mph.


 * Formation chance within 48 hours...low...30 percent
 * Formation chance within 5 days...medium...40 percent

BNWC (Updated February 20, 2016 - 3:00 PM EST)

Classification
Category 5 hurricane: An active and unbanned HHW bureaucrat.

Category 4 hurricane: An active and unbanned HHW administrator.

Category 3 hurricane: An active and unbanned HHW junior administrator.

Category 2 hurricane: An active and unbanned HHW Chat Moderator with rollback rights.

Category 1 hurricane: An active and unbanned HHW Chat Moderator without rollback rights.

Tropical Storm: An active HHW user with at least 10 edits without user rights. An autopatrolled user falls at the upper end of this category usually.

Tropical Depression: A new HHW user with at least 5 edits, OR an inactive HHW user that has never had user rights.

Subtropical Storm: An active HHW user that previously had user rights and has been demoted from a position of power, OR A returning retired HHW user that previously had user rights.

Subtropical Depression: A user that meats the criteria for a tropical depression, but retired and returned with less than 10 edits. (Very rare) (Example: A user that had 6 edits returns after a year of not editing, then they are a subtropical depression)

Invest: A user with 4 or fewer edits, or a user with no edits that appears in chat.

Season Summary
Numerous storms that formed in 2015 or earlier were active at the start of 2016: Major hurricanes included Hurricane Hype, Hurricane Nkechinyer, Hurricane Michelle, Hurricane Bob, Hurricane Ryne, Hurricane Layten Hurricane Floyd, Hurricane Jack and Hurricane Marcus. There were also several non-major hurricanes as well as tropical storms.

January
The season got off to an exceptionally early start, with Tropical Depression One developing on January 5. One quickly intensified into Tropical Storm Destiny. Destiny would peak as a 45 mph tropical storm, before degenerating into a remnant low in late January. Tropical Depression Two formed the following week, which would eventually slowly develop into Hurricane Bittersweet. On January 15, a weak and disorganized Tropical Storm Yolo formed near the Cape Verde Islands.

A trio of tropical storms formed the next day, Nuno, RAM and Keranique. Nuno rapidly dissipated two days later, and RAM dissipated 6 days later. Keranique, however, began to intensify, becoming the strongest storm of the season by late January. On January 30, another weak tropical storm, Matthew, developed southeast of Cape Verde, but struggled to intensify amongst dry air.

February
On February 1, Keranique was upgraded into a category 1 hurricane - effectively becoming the first hurricane of the season. Three days later, Bittersweet intensified into a category 1 storm, becoming the second hurricane of the season. In addition, Keranique was upgraded to a category 2 storm as it remained in a favorable environment. February did not feature as much activity as January due to increased wind shear and drier air than the previous month.

Nonetheless, on February 12, Tropical Depression Ten developed from an upper-level low northeast of the Bahamas. Ten would later intensify into Tropical Storm Darren. On February 19, Tropical Depression Eleven developed southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Tropical Storm Destiny (UniversalSolo)
On January 5, a tropical wave rapidly developed in the southern Caribbean. Later that evening, advisories were initiated for Tropical Depression One. Amid low wind shear and warm water temperatures, TD One intensified into TS Destiny less than 30 minutes later as part of a special advisory. The next day, Destiny changed little in intensity.

Hurricane Bittersweet (A Bittersweet Journey)
On January 8, a non-tropical low near Bermuda began to be monitored for possible tropical cyclogenesis. On January 13, it organized itself into Tropical Depression Two. Two intensified to TS Bittersweet in a special advisory in January 21. Bittersweet would further intensify to 45 mph. On February 4, Bittersweet intensified into a category 1 hurricane. 11 days later on February 15, Bittersweet was upgraded to a category 2 storm.

Tropical Storm Yolo (Heythereyolo123123123)
On January 15, a westward-moving tropical wave developed into Tropical Depression Three about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Late that evening, the system became considerably more well-defined, and eventually intensified into Tropical Storm Yolo. However, interaction with the Saharan Air Layer and moderate wind shear caused the system to degenerate into a remnant low the next day. On January 29, Yolo re-intensified back to a tropical storm. However, the storm accelerated westward and made landfall in Northern South America, peaking as a 45 mph disorganized tropical storm. Yolo wrought moderate damage to South America, causing an estimated $100 million in damage. Due to the Brown Ocean Effect, Yolo nearly regenerated several times before eventually dissipating.

Tropical Depression Four (HurricaneHistory)
On January 3, the BNWC began monitoring a tropical wave located off the coast of West Africa. The wave briefly acquired tropical depression intensity on January 5, but was not operationally classified due to an apparent lack of a closed circulation. However, it degenerated into a remnant trough the next day. Due to dry air, the wave struggled to re-develop. However, on January 15, the low formed into Tropical Depression Four. It eventually degenerated into a trough of low pressure later that evening.

Post-Analysis
In post-season analysis, it was discovered that Four actually was a weak 25 mph tropical depression for 24 hours beginning on January 5 and ending on January 6. Operationally, Four did not form until January 15, however. Its peak winds were also lowered from 35 to 30 mph, due to the fact that peak winds observed were in the 30-31 mph range.

Tropical Storm RAM (RAMTurtle)
In mid-January, a series of tropical waves rapidly developed west of Africa. One of them, the southernmost one, developed a closed circulation on January 15 and became Tropical Depression Five. Five would later strengthen into Tropical Storm RAM. However, dry air and entrainment from the Saharan Air Layer caused RAM to rapidly weaken to a tropical depression by later that week. On January 22, RAM dissipated.

Tropical Storm Nuno (NunoLava1998)
In mid-January, a tropical wave split into two portions. The southern portion developed into Hurricane Keranique. The northern portion, however, took its own track, developing into Tropical Depression Six and eventually Tropical Storm Nuno on January 16. Nuno acquired peak winds of 40 mph before degenerating into a remnant low on January 18.

Post-Analysis
In post-analysis, Nuno's pressure was found to be slightly lower, at 1003 mbar instead of 1004.

Hurricane Keranique (AGirlNamedKeranique)
The origins of Hurricane Keranique were traced back to a tropical wave that developed over central Africa on December 22, the northern portion of which would produce Tropical Storm Nuno. Moving very slowly over land, the wave became Tropical Depression Seven on January 16 while located southeast of Cape Verde. Seven was rapidly upgraded to a tropical storm, receiving the name "Keranique". On February 1, Keranique intensified into a category 1 hurricane. Just a few days later, Keranique intensified into a category 2 hurricane located south-southwest of Cape Verde.

Tropical Storm Matthew (NY WX)
In late January, a tropical storm formed just east of Cape Verde. It developed from Tropical Depression Eight, and was named "Matthew". Matthew then dissipated on February 2 after failing to intensify beyond minimal tropical storm status.

Subtropical Storm Callum (Callum Fawsitt)
In early January, the BNWC began monitoring a non-tropical low near Bermuda, for possible tropical or subtropical cyclogenesis. Conditions were initially unfavorable for development. Nonetheless, the low became Subtropical Storm Callum on February 4.

Tropical Storm Darren (DarrenDude)
On February 12, a new tropical depression formed northeast of the Bahamas. The next day it intensified into Tropical Storm Darren. Darren is currently active, with maximum sustained winds of 55 mph and a minimum pressure of 998 mbar.

Tropical Depression Eleven (YogeetaALT5)
On February 14, the BNWC began monitoring a new invest east of Cape Verde. On February 19, tropical depression Eleven formed about 100 miles southwest of Cape Verde.

Names used
Names will be based off the new user's username or real name. There is no set naming list for this season.