Talk:2014 Atlantic hurricane season (Steven's)/@comment-10941649-20141012212118/@comment-5617649-20141013011923

But in real life it's out to sea in mid-October instead of striking Florida in early-August like you see in my prediction. :P The NHC is predicting Gonzalo to become a Cat. 2 after it leaves the Leewards and Caribbean, and I really don't think it'll become the Cat. 4 I predicted. But it still seems to have a slight shot at major status. Gonzalo has plenty of favorable conditions to play with after it leaves the Caribbean islands, so who knows what Gonzalo's going to do in the future?

Also, I should do an updated comparison between this prediction and the real-life season:


 * Arthur: Prediction = 60 mph TS staying out to sea in early June, Real life = Category 2 striking the U.S. east coast in early July


 * TD Two: Didn't exist in my prediction, in real life it was a 35 mph TD staying out to sea in mid-late July


 * Bertha: Prediction = C2 hurricane striking Mexico in late-June/early-July, Real life = C1 hurricane affecting the Windwards, Leewards, and Bermuda during early August


 * Cristobal: Prediction = Tropical storm striking the Yucatan, Florida, and U.S. East Coast during early July, Real life = C1 hurricane causing slight effects in the Leewards, Turks & Caicos, and Bermuda in late August


 * Dolly: Prediction = C3 hurricane heading through the Caribbean islands and striking Florida and the US Gulf Coast in mid-July, Real life = TS that struck Mexico in early September


 * Edouard: Prediction = C1 hurricane that stayed out to sea in late July, Real life = C3 hurricane that stayed out to sea in mid September


 * Fay: Prediction = C1 hurricane striking Hispaniola, Cuba, Florida, and the Carolinas in early August, Real life = C1 hurricane staying out to sea and forming subtropical, but later becoming tropical in early-mid October


 * Gonzalo: Prediction = C4 Cape-Verde type hurricane slightly affecting the Leewards, Bermuda, and Newfoundland during mid-late August, Real life = TS affecting the Windwards and Leewards and has potential to strengthen to at least C2 strength while approaching Bermuda in mid-October

I'd say that my predictions are basically failing this year but I still got a few things close. Arthur and Edouard are some particular examples, my Arthur formed near the same area that the real life Arthur formed, but my fake Arthur went out to sea and remained a TS instead of striking the U.S. and becoming a Cat. 2 like in real life. The timing was also close enough too, being only a month apart compared to some later predictions whose timing was 2 months off as you can see in the above comparisons. Also, both the fake Edouard and the real Ed stayed out to sea, but the timing was 2 months off and their strengths were also different (Fake Ed = C1 strength vs. Real Ed = C3 major strength). So based on these comparisons I would say that Arthur and Edouard were the most alike in real life vs. predictions. Also as you can see I once predicted that Dolly would be something very devastating along Florida and the US Gulf Coast but I guess it won't be. There was also a lack of TD 2 in my predicted season but there was a TD 12, however we won't get that far in the real season.