Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki:Chat Logs/2.8/05-08-2017

00:40:33 UTC  :3 00:40:36 UTC  Hi Bob. 00:40:40 UTC  Hey 00:40:45 UTC  My brb turned into a bbl again. lol 00:40:49 UTC  Bob DM. I wanna talk to you. 00:40:50 UTC  :P 00:40:52 UTC  ok :p 00:40:59 UTC  +1 00:41:03 UTC  :3 00:41:05 UTC  lol 00:44:34 UTC  [img="www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/90E_gefs_latest.png"] kden 00:44:49 UTC  I finished my realistic 2017. 00:44:58 UTC  "The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season was overall above average. The season featured 14 tropical storms, with 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. The season began exceptionally early on April 18, with the formation of Subtropical Storm Arlene, which would later become tropical. It ended on November 13, with Hurricane Nate. However, 2017 would become the first atlantic hurricane season to feature no storms in June since 2014. Despite multiple reliable forecasts called for a weak to moderate el nino event, the el nino failed to materialize until after the season ended. However, the beginning of the el nino in October produced less favorable conditions in the last two months of the season." 00:45:10 UTC  Looks realistic. :p 00:45:41 UTC  "The season featured many significant storms. Arlene and Bret formed before the season officially began on June 1st. In July, Hurricane Don caused moderate damage across the Caribbean and United States, but gained massive media attention due to the name's similarity to then-president Donald Trump. In August, Hurricane Franklin caused moderate damages in the Bahamas and threatened to strike North Carolina, but it stayed offshore. In September, Hurricane Lee became the first major hurricane to strike the United States since Hurricane Wilma in 2005, and caused severe damage throughout its path. In November, Hurricane Nate dropped heavy rain in Haiti, which was still recovering from Hurricane Matthew of the previous year." 00:45:46 UTC  http://hypotheticalhurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_blog:CycloneRyne94/Anyone_else_wanna_play_some_CAH%3F_(2) kden Ryne 00:46:10 UTC <Hypercane> kden 00:46:22 UTC <Bobnekaro> Does anyone actually ever play CAH with him? I never have. 00:46:33 UTC <StrawberryMaster> other than Nkech, nobody else 00:46:40 UTC <MasterGarfield> During the WMO conference in April 2018, the name Lee was retired, and will never be used for another Atlantic hurricane. The name Leonard was chosen to replace it in 2023. 00:48:43 UTC <MasterGarfield> and that concludes my 2017 00:48:47 UTC <MasterGarfield> descriptions come later 00:51:39 UTC <MasterGarfield> dead 00:52:23 UTC <Bobnekaro> yep 00:52:53 UTC <MasterGarfield> The 2023 list is exactly the same but Leonard instead of Lee. 00:53:53 UTC <Bobnekaro> Leonard? :p 00:54:00 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 00:54:05 UTC <MasterGarfield> and it's going to be used too. 00:54:09 UTC <MasterGarfield> 2023 has 15 storms 00:54:47 UTC <Bobnekaro> Does it open with Hurricane Arlene for once? 00:55:30 UTC <MasterGarfield> idk yet 00:55:38 UTC <MasterGarfield> http://hypotheticalhurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/2018_Atlantic_Hurricane_Season_%28MG%27s_realistic_version%29 00:57:34 UTC <inline-alert> Hurricane Brickcraft1 has formed! 00:57:47 UTC <Bobnekaro> hey Brick 00:57:57 UTC <Brickcraft1> Hi 00:58:03 UTC <inline-alert> Hurricane MasterGarfield has dissipated! 00:58:30 UTC <inline-alert> Hurricane StrawberryMaster has dissipated! 00:59:16 UTC <inline-alert> Hurricane MasterGarfield has formed! 00:59:51 UTC <MasterGarfield> 10-4-2 01:00:18 UTC <Hypercane> [img="prntscr.com/f5b83o/direct"] 01:00:19 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:00:21 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:00:26 UTC <Hypercane> I changed the pink one's name. 01:00:27 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:00:31 UTC <Bobnekaro> 2005 PLS. 01:00:35 UTC <Bobnekaro> One isolated dead eason. 01:00:41 UTC <Hypercane> lol 01:00:42 UTC <Bobnekaro> > eason 01:00:43 UTC <Bobnekaro> kden 01:00:48 UTC <MasterGarfield> which names will be majors in 2018 :3 01:00:52 UTC <MasterGarfield> it only goes to Joyce. 01:01:05 UTC <Bobnekaro> What would HHW be like if we had another 2005? 01:01:13 UTC <Hypercane> Crazy. 01:01:14 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:01:26 UTC <MasterGarfield> yep. 01:01:30 UTC <Hypercane> But I doubt that will be this year though. 01:01:31 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:01:32 UTC <MasterGarfield> It may happen again someday. 01:01:44 UTC <Hypercane> But not today. 01:01:45 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:01:47 UTC <Bobnekaro> :p 01:01:51 UTC <MasterGarfield> the +AMO will probably return before we die 01:01:52 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:01:58 UTC <Bobnekaro> We still have it :3 01:02:06 UTC <Hypercane> Hmm 01:02:13 UTC <Hypercane> How long does AMO periods last? 01:02:15 UTC <Hypercane> 20-30 years? 01:02:16 UTC <Bobnekaro> I wonder if "hurricanes" is the first thought when most people think of 2005. 01:02:24 UTC <MasterGarfield> yeah probably. 01:02:31 UTC <Hypercane> Okay. 01:02:37 UTC <Bobnekaro> Just 2 years after 1914 there was a good season 01:02:41 UTC <Bobnekaro> 1916 was pretty good 01:02:44 UTC <MasterGarfield> 50 year +AMO please. 01:02:45 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:02:53 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:02:55 UTC <Bobnekaro> :p 01:03:00 UTC <Hypercane> Inb4 it switches in 2024. 01:03:01 UTC <Bobnekaro> the last +AMO period lasted from roughly 1920 to 1969 01:03:13 UTC <Hypercane> 49 years? 01:03:14 UTC <Hypercane> kek 01:03:19 UTC <Bobnekaro> 1914 had El Nino and -AMO I think, but data from back then is probably suspect and inaccurate. 01:03:34 UTC <Bobnekaro> -AMO from 1970 to 1994 01:03:45 UTC <MasterGarfield> +AMO 1995 - present 01:03:57 UTC <Hypercane> Imagine if we had 100 years of +AMO. 01:03:58 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:04:03 UTC <Bobnekaro> some would say +AMO 1995-2012, -AMO 2013-present. kek 01:04:16 UTC <MasterGarfield> kden. 01:04:19 UTC <Hypercane> kden 01:04:21 UTC <Bobnekaro> 2016 clearly was NOT a -AMO season. 01:04:22 UTC <Bobnekaro> :p 01:04:28 UTC <Hypercane> ^ 01:04:33 UTC <Bobnekaro> No -AMO season managed 2016's level of activity. 01:04:34 UTC <Hypercane> It wouldn't of been as active. 01:04:38 UTC <MasterGarfield> but 1990. 01:04:39 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:04:41 UTC <MasterGarfield> it came close 01:04:44 UTC <Bobnekaro> -AMO seasons usually struggle to produce more than 11 or 12 storms at most. 01:04:52 UTC <Bobnekaro> And the MDR is a dry, frigid hole 01:04:53 UTC <inline-alert> Hurricane Brickcraft1 has dissipated! 01:04:57 UTC <MasterGarfield> if 1990 was +AMO it probably would have been another 2012 01:05:11 UTC <Bobnekaro> 1990 was about the best you can get in a -AMO. 01:05:26 UTC <Hypercane> 14-8-1. 01:05:31 UTC <inline-alert> Hurricane StrawberryMaster has formed! 01:05:36 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:05:47 UTC <Hypercane> the lack of majors disturbs me tho. 01:05:48 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:05:49 UTC <inline-alert> Hurricane StrawberryMaster has dissipated! 01:05:53 UTC <Bobnekaro> A fish C3 too. 01:05:58 UTC <MasterGarfield> Gustav :P 01:05:59 UTC <Hypercane> :3 01:06:03 UTC <Bobnekaro> No strong Caribbean storms either. 01:06:13 UTC <MasterGarfield> but at least it had caribbean storms. 01:06:18 UTC <Bobnekaro> 2016 had the best Caribbean since 2008 IMO 01:06:23 UTC <Bobnekaro> Maybe even 2007 01:06:24 UTC <MasterGarfield> yep 01:06:35 UTC <Bobnekaro> Matthew was something the Atlantic hasn't seen in a long time 01:06:39 UTC <MasterGarfield> all the storms that were in there in 2016 became hurricanes, two of them majors 01:07:06 UTC <Bobnekaro> The Caribbean storms of 2016 were the best storms of the season IMO. (except Nicole, which was the best non-Caribbean storm imo) 01:07:11 UTC <MasterGarfield> I think 2017 will have a Caribbean like 2003 01:07:19 UTC <MasterGarfield> some isolated hurricane force storms in there 01:07:22 UTC <Bobnekaro> We'll probably see a storm or two there. 01:07:25 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:07:27 UTC <Bobnekaro> Not quite like 2015, but less active than 2016. 01:07:37 UTC <Hypercane> 11-3-0? 01:07:38 UTC <Hypercane> :3 01:07:39 UTC <Bobnekaro> 2015 had a giant "KEEP OUT" sign over storms trying to enter the Caribbean. 01:07:41 UTC <Bobnekaro> Hype PLS 01:07:43 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:07:57 UTC <MasterGarfield> I think we'll see two TS and a C1-2 in the caribbean this year 01:08:02 UTC <Hypercane> Seems like 2013 seasons are rare. 01:08:12 UTC <Hypercane> Thankfully. 01:08:13 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:08:20 UTC <Bobnekaro> Yeah. 01:08:28 UTC <Bobnekaro> Seasons without a C2 are not common at all. 01:08:39 UTC <Hypercane> Last one without a major before that was 1994 iirc. 01:08:46 UTC <Bobnekaro> 2015 Caribbean: Hello Mr. Danny, you're an impressive little bugger. However, you must not come in here or I will shear you to death. 01:08:50 UTC <MasterGarfield> lol 01:08:53 UTC <MasterGarfield> "bugger" 01:08:55 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:09:01 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:09:02 UTC <Bobnekaro> idk 01:09:20 UTC <Bobnekaro> Hello Ms. Erika, I see you are sheared already. How about I pull you in to a shear trap so you can die over Hispaniola instead of reaching Florida intact? 01:09:24 UTC <MasterGarfield> or is that Australian? [s] meh it doesn't matter they talk the same 01:09:30 UTC <Hypercane> I doubt there was any 0 major hurricane seasons between 1994-2013. 01:09:31 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:09:37 UTC <Bobnekaro> 1995-2012 was a great era 01:09:40 UTC <Bobnekaro> especially 1995-2010 01:09:48 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:09:49 UTC <Bobnekaro> The early-mid 2000s were phenomenal 01:10:19 UTC <Bobnekaro> Caribbean in 2016: Hello Mr. Matthew, there will be some shear over there, but conditions are good enough. Welcome to the Caribbean Sea, you should take off soon. 01:10:50 UTC <Hypercane> I wonder what happens when the first season to have +AMO copes. 01:10:51 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:11:06 UTC <Hypercane> Maybe a season like 1995 happens? 01:11:11 UTC <MasterGarfield> possibly 01:11:12 UTC <Hypercane> When +AMO kicks in? 01:11:14 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:11:18 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:11:34 UTC <Bobnekaro> Models show 2017 having a solid +AMO. 01:11:42 UTC <Bobnekaro> Yay 01:11:44 UTC <Hypercane> First one since 1995? 01:11:46 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:11:56 UTC <Bobnekaro> No, nearly all seasons since 1995 have been +AMO. :P 01:12:00 UTC <Bobnekaro> You know a season that was close to -AMO? 01:12:03 UTC <Hypercane> What. 01:12:04 UTC <Bobnekaro> [small]2009 01:12:08 UTC <Hypercane> 2009 pls. 01:12:18 UTC <MasterGarfield> "hello mister Otto, I see you're struggling down there. Here, let me push you along in this area of lower shear. You'll spin up in an instant." 01:12:24 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:12:27 UTC <Hypercane> lol 01:12:28 UTC <Bobnekaro> lol 01:12:37 UTC <Hypercane> I was 12 in 2009. 01:12:38 UTC <Hypercane> kek 01:12:47 UTC <Bobnekaro> "Hello Ms. Wilma, just go ahead and do whatever you want" 01:13:15 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:13:17 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:13:23 UTC <MasterGarfield> Caribbean 2013 01:13:24 UTC <MasterGarfield> do it 01:13:25 UTC <MasterGarfield> :3 01:13:52 UTC <Hypercane> 2009 was the last year I had a real astronomy interest tbh. 01:13:53 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:14:06 UTC <Bobnekaro> wow. :p 01:14:20 UTC <Bobnekaro> [img="www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.5.4.2017.gif"] 01:14:30 UTC <Hypercane> kden 01:14:56 UTC <Hypercane> That looks like ±AMO to me. 01:14:58 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:15:01 UTC <Bobnekaro> Yes. 01:15:05 UTC <Hypercane> At least for now. 01:15:08 UTC <Bobnekaro> This is the closest the Atlantic ever got to -AMO in the 2010s. 01:15:13 UTC <Bobnekaro> [img="www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.3.9.2015.gif"] 01:15:20 UTC <Bobnekaro> that's why NCSU only said 4-6 storms. 01:15:23 UTC <Hypercane> Wow. 01:15:25 UTC <Hypercane> kden 01:15:30 UTC <Bobnekaro> "4-6" 01:15:31 UTC <Hypercane> Wait what. 01:15:40 UTC <Hypercane> 4-6 storms? 01:15:44 UTC <Hypercane> kek 01:15:46 UTC <Bobnekaro> That's what NCSU predicted in 2015. 01:15:47 UTC <Bobnekaro> kden 01:16:01 UTC <Bobnekaro> 2015 was supposed to be absolutely awful but it turned out only slightly below average. 01:16:20 UTC <Hypercane> Well March is usually cold in the Atlantic anyways I thought. 01:16:22 UTC <Hypercane> Kden 01:16:23 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:16:57 UTC <Bobnekaro> It's always cold in the Atlantic in March. 01:17:05 UTC <Bobnekaro> It seems like the "cold blob" usually appears in the winter and dissipates during the summer. 01:17:16 UTC <MasterGarfield> :3 01:17:19 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:17:22 UTC <Hypercane> lol 01:17:24 UTC <Bobnekaro> :p 01:17:28 UTC <Bobnekaro> neutral PDO. 01:17:29 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:17:34 UTC <Hypercane> ±PDO 01:17:37 UTC <Hypercane> :p 01:17:38 UTC <Bobnekaro> :P 01:17:43 UTC <MasterGarfield> what is PDO? 01:17:44 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:17:54 UTC <MasterGarfield> enlighten me. 01:17:55 UTC <Bobnekaro> Basically like the Pacific's AMO. 01:18:01 UTC <MasterGarfield> oh 01:18:02 UTC <Bobnekaro> Pacific Decadal Oscillation. 01:18:08 UTC <Bobnekaro> it was negative from 1995 to 2013. 01:18:37 UTC <MasterGarfield> -PDO = -AMO?

01:18:39 UTC <Hypercane> Kek, as soon as +AMO starts -PDO followed. 01:18:40 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:19:11 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:19:25 UTC <Bobnekaro> 1995 was strange. 01:19:26 UTC <Hypercane> [img="upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4d/1990_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png"] 01:19:34 UTC <Bobnekaro> 1990 01:19:35 UTC <Hypercane> Not bad for -AMO. 01:19:36 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:20:21 UTC <Hypercane> What would happen if +AMO lasted 100 years? 01:20:22 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:20:28 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:20:38 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:20:53 UTC <Hypercane> Then -AMO followed for the next 75 years afterwards. 01:20:54 UTC <Hypercane> kek 01:20:58 UTC <Bobnekaro> That would be brutal. 01:21:01 UTC <Bobnekaro> An entire lifetime of -AMO. 01:21:12 UTC <inline-alert> Hurricane Brickcraft1 has formed! 01:21:14 UTC <Bobnekaro> hey Brick 01:21:25 UTC <Hypercane> We'd be dead before the -AMO arrived anyways. 01:21:26 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:21:39 UTC <Hypercane> 2096 would be the next one. 01:21:41 UTC <Brickcraft1> Hi 01:21:47 UTC <MasterGarfield> maybe not me 01:21:48 UTC <Bobnekaro> I wonder what changed Analogs Since 1966 Based on 30-day CDAS SSTA* Analysis

Top 5 Analogs - Year: ACC 2006: 0.2 1981:  0.19 1968:  0.16 1984:  0.15 [b]2008:  0.13[/b] 01:21:56 UTC <Brickcraft1> I'm sorry about being inactive today 01:21:57 UTC <Bobnekaro> ignore the "I wonder what changed" part 01:22:00 UTC <MasterGarfield> for this year? 01:22:04 UTC <Bobnekaro> look 2008 is an analog :p 01:22:06 UTC <MasterGarfield> :/ 01:22:08 UTC <Brickcraft1> I was at a friend's house :P 01:22:16 UTC <MasterGarfield> also 01:22:17 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:22:19 UTC <MasterGarfield> [small] I told you 01:22:30 UTC <Bobnekaro> 2008 was Weak Modoki Nina 01:22:40 UTC <Brickcraft1> Also, I just got my phone back last night 01:22:42 UTC <MasterGarfield> 2008 was 16-8-5 01:22:47 UTC <MasterGarfield> that's actually above my prediction 01:22:48 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:22:54 UTC <Hypercane> :3 01:23:09 UTC <Hypercane> Brick's parents pls. 01:23:12 UTC <Bobnekaro> Analogs Since 1966 Based on NMME SSTA* Hurricane Season Forecast

Top 5 Analogs - Year: ACC 1997: 0.35 1972:  0.29 1982:  0.25 2015:  0.24 2009:  0.22 01:23:23 UTC <Bobnekaro> NMME has some analogs for seasons that were downright pathetic. 01:23:30 UTC <MasterGarfield> no. 01:23:34 UTC <Hypercane> 1997? 01:23:36 UTC <Hypercane> um ok 01:23:39 UTC <Bobnekaro> 1982. 01:23:42 UTC <MasterGarfield> I don't think ONE of those seasons was active. 01:24:05 UTC <Bobnekaro> kden NMME 01:24:06 UTC <Hypercane> Me either. 01:24:09 UTC <Bobnekaro> The May NMME should have better analogs. 01:24:26 UTC <Hypercane> Why do they always start off that low anyways? 01:24:27 UTC <Hypercane> kden 01:24:52 UTC <Hypercane> 4-6 storms even in 2015 just seems too low. 01:25:02 UTC <MasterGarfield> That's -AMO low. 01:25:13 UTC <Hypercane> When they forecasted 2015. 01:25:15 UTC <Bobnekaro> +AMO usually guarantees at least 8 storms. 01:25:19 UTC <Hypercane> "4-6" 01:25:28 UTC <Bobnekaro> I remember reading that and I died a little bit inside. 01:25:30 UTC <Bobnekaro> kden 01:25:44 UTC <Bobnekaro> I was like "The Atlantic is screwed for decades" 01:25:45 UTC <Bobnekaro> lol 01:25:47 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:26:13 UTC <Hypercane> No wait. 01:26:15 UTC <Hypercane> --AMO low. 01:26:16 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:26:30 UTC <Bobnekaro> watch out, Florida and NC. [img="www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/hsanalog/TCfreqa_anl.png"] 01:26:31 UTC <Bobnekaro> kek 01:26:40 UTC <Hypercane> I wonder what was wrong in 1983. 01:26:48 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:26:52 UTC <Bobnekaro> -AMO and a very slowly weakening El Nino that had lingering effects. 01:26:53 UTC <Hypercane> Besides -AMO. 01:26:59 UTC <Hypercane> Oh. 01:27:01 UTC <Hypercane> ok 01:27:53 UTC <Bobnekaro> I think the NHEM is slowly getting ready for TCs. 01:28:04 UTC <Bobnekaro> That offseason winter look is gone. 01:28:16 UTC <MasterGarfield> how's landfalls looking? 01:28:17 UTC <Hypercane> So El Niño and -AMO would kill the Atlantic it sems like. 01:28:27 UTC <Hypercane> seems * 01:28:29 UTC <Hypercane> k 01:29:04 UTC <Bobnekaro> Together they would make a terrible and brutally boring season. 01:29:11 UTC <Bobnekaro> Luckily, 2017 does not appear like it will be that way. 01:29:16 UTC <Hypercane> kden Playteb: http://hypotheticalhurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:Worldsstrongestcyclone-RETURNS!! 01:29:19 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:29:37 UTC <Bobnekaro> lol 01:29:42 UTC <Bobnekaro> [img="www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb.jpg"] 01:29:44 UTC <MasterGarfield> I don't think El Nino will form until at least October. 01:29:47 UTC <Hypercane> Yeah thankfully. 01:29:50 UTC <Bobnekaro> TW with some cold cloud tops. 01:30:03 UTC <Hypercane> Inb4 formation. 01:30:04 UTC <Hypercane> jk 01:30:16 UTC <Bobnekaro> the wave train seems to be starting a little earlier this year than last year. 01:30:38 UTC <Hypercane> IIRC, some of them come from the NIO. 01:30:46 UTC <Bobnekaro> IIRC. 01:30:56 UTC <Bobnekaro> [img="tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitEW.jpg"] 01:30:58 UTC <Hypercane> Pretty long distance then. 01:30:59 UTC <Bobnekaro> Not much SAL :) 01:31:06 UTC <Hypercane> Bob pls. 01:31:08 UTC <Hypercane> "Not much" 01:31:17 UTC <Bobnekaro> the SAL is farther north from the MDR. 01:31:33 UTC <Hypercane> Yeah. 01:31:45 UTC <Bobnekaro> The MDR might actually be more favorable than last year. 01:32:12 UTC <Hypercane> Inb4 MDR C5. 01:32:13 UTC <Hypercane> jk 01:33:01 UTC <Bobnekaro> lol 01:33:12 UTC <Bobnekaro> inb4 2017 is mainly an MDR season and Garfield is (Triggered) 01:33:25 UTC <MasterGarfield> so 1995 basically 01:33:26 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:33:27 UTC <Hypercane> :3 01:34:24 UTC <Bobnekaro> I like this. [img="www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2017050706/cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_nafr_2.png"] 01:34:36 UTC <Bobnekaro> A few months ago, the models showed a nearly dead MDR. How things have changed... 01:34:38 UTC <Hypercane> 180/900 pls. 01:34:49 UTC <Hypercane> Wow. @Bob 01:34:52 UTC <Bobnekaro> maybe a CV Hurricane Bret :3 01:34:54 UTC <Bobnekaro> in July 01:34:55 UTC <Bobnekaro> :3 01:35:16 UTC <inline-alert> Hurricane CookieMonster12391 has formed! 01:35:17 UTC <Hypercane> kden 01:35:24 UTC <Hypercane> Hi Derp. o/ 01:35:27 UTC <Bobnekaro> hey Derp 01:35:37 UTC <CookieMonster12391> Hi 01:35:40 UTC <Bobnekaro> Well there is still a slim chance of Adrian redeveloping, but I wouldn't bet on it at all. 01:35:55 UTC <Bobnekaro> After that, sinking air may dominate the Atlantic for a while. 01:36:07 UTC <Bobnekaro> inb4 Hype is like SINKING AIR 01:36:18 UTC <Hypercane> This season might be like 1992 if that came true. Arlene in April, Bret in July. 01:36:21 UTC <CookieMonster12391> Idk what you men are talking about 01:36:26 UTC <Bobnekaro> kden 01:36:56 UTC <Hypercane> Inb4 exactly like 1992. 01:36:58 UTC <Hypercane> :3 01:37:00 UTC <Bobnekaro> PLS 01:37:06 UTC <Bobnekaro> at least we had a NAMED storm before August. :3 01:37:17 UTC <Hypercane> The major will be Cindy. 01:37:18 UTC <Bobnekaro> We're already better than a lot of seasons in that aspect. 01:37:31 UTC <Bobnekaro> Some even were active. 01:37:40 UTC <Bobnekaro> Look at 1998 and 1999. No B storm until mid-August. 01:37:44 UTC <inline-alert> Hurricane CookieMonster12391 has dissipated! 01:37:46 UTC <MasterGarfield> yep 01:37:47 UTC <Bobnekaro> So we don't really need activity for a while. :P 01:37:54 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:38:00 UTC <inline-alert> Hurricane CookieMonster12391 has formed! 01:38:05 UTC <Bobnekaro> Never call a season a bust before September 1. 01:38:24 UTC <Hypercane> Inb4 Cindy devastates Florida 25 years later than Andrew did. 01:38:26 UTC <Bobnekaro> Some people were ready to call 2016 a bust with Karl, and then Matthew happened. 01:38:43 UTC <MasterGarfield> so stay off wundergrounds and you'll be safe 01:38:44 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:39:00 UTC <Hypercane> Inb4 Cindy devastates Florida EXACTLY 25 years later than Andrew did. 01:39:05 UTC <Hypercane> :3 01:39:14 UTC <Bobnekaro> yeah this is the 25th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew this year. 01:39:28 UTC <Hypercane> Yep. 01:39:43 UTC <Hypercane> 2042 will be 50 years I think. 01:39:44 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:39:48 UTC <Bobnekaro> yep. 01:39:50 UTC <MasterGarfield> [img="www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/90E_intensity_latest.png"] 01:40:11 UTC <Bobnekaro> SHEAR (KT)        9    10    11    12    12    19    19    24    16    16    15     7    10 01:40:18 UTC <Bobnekaro> So there is some shear, but it's tolerable. 01:40:23 UTC <Hypercane> Andrew struck when my sister was still very young. 01:40:26 UTC <Hypercane> kden 01:40:38 UTC <Bobnekaro> 700-500 MB RH    78    79    79    78    78    80    80    78    77    83    81    78    71 01:40:40 UTC <Bobnekaro> Humidity is good 01:40:43 UTC <Bobnekaro> SSTs are great 01:40:48 UTC <MasterGarfield> I think we can get Bret in may 01:40:50 UTC <Bobnekaro> If shear is low this storm could do RI. 01:40:51 UTC <MasterGarfield> do we have the MJO? 01:41:02 UTC <Bobnekaro> Yes, until about May 20. After that time, sinking air is likely to set in. 01:41:09 UTC <Hypercane> SINKING AIR. 01:41:10 UTC <Hypercane> :3 01:41:14 UTC <MasterGarfield> the MJO could fuel the regeneration of Adrian into Bret. 01:41:15 UTC <MasterGarfield> kden 01:41:31 UTC <Hypercane> Inb4 it lasts from June-October. 01:41:33 UTC <Hypercane> :3 01:41:35 UTC <Hypercane> jk 01:41:41 UTC <Bobnekaro> lol 01:41:53 UTC <Hypercane> November will be like 1994's. 01:41:54 UTC <Hypercane> :3 01:42:00 UTC <MasterGarfield> k 01:42:05 UTC <Bobnekaro> That would actually be good. :3 01:42:12 UTC <MasterGarfield> i'd say 10-15% chance for Bret. 01:42:13 UTC <Bobnekaro> if June-October is good. 01:42:17 UTC <MasterGarfield> The MJO would favor it 01:42:19 UTC <Hypercane> k yourself MG. 01:42:20 UTC <Hypercane> :3 01:42:23 UTC <MasterGarfield> :3 01:42:45 UTC <Hypercane> a 1994-like thing in November would be great. 01:42:46 UTC <Hypercane> :3 01:42:50 UTC <inline-alert> Hurricane CookieMonster12391 has dissipated! 01:43:04 UTC <Bobnekaro> Holding neutral. [img="www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png"] 01:43:19 UTC <Bobnekaro> Florence was odd. No way SSTs were above 26C with it, yet it somehow became a 110 mph C2. kden 01:43:29 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:43:30 UTC <Hypercane> kden 01:43:40 UTC <Bobnekaro> Florence had to be over SSTs about 23C at most. 01:43:42 UTC <Hypercane> @Bob 01:43:51 UTC <MasterGarfield> cold tongue right along where the nino was SUPPOSED to be. 01:43:52 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:43:53 UTC <Bobnekaro> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Florence_(1994) 01:43:57 UTC <Bobnekaro> Weird storm 01:44:17 UTC <Hypercane> Just proves SSTs don't mean everything all the time. 01:44:18 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:44:25 UTC <Hypercane> Look at Arlene. 01:44:26 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:44:32 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:45:08 UTC <Bobnekaro> SSTs right now where Florence was are about 17-18C. kek 01:45:30 UTC <Bobnekaro> there is even a spot of 1C SSTs not far from where Florence was LOL 01:45:42 UTC <MasterGarfield> lol 01:45:43 UTC <Bobnekaro> Yes, 1C. 01:45:51 UTC <Bobnekaro> [img="www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_atl_1.png"] 01:46:02 UTC <Hypercane> lol 01:46:06 UTC <Bobnekaro> interesting SST gradient. 1C to 17C in about 100-200 miles. lol 01:46:12 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:46:22 UTC <MasterGarfield> if Florence happened now it would dissipate in one second 01:46:33 UTC <Hypercane> 33.8F? 01:46:34 UTC <Hypercane> kden 01:46:56 UTC <Hypercane> 62.6F? 01:46:59 UTC <Hypercane> double kden 01:47:02 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:47:12 UTC <Bobnekaro> From like 63F to 33.8F in 200-ish miles. kden 01:47:44 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:47:53 UTC <Hypercane> If Florence happened now.. it would rapidly dissipate. 01:47:55 UTC <Hypercane> ::P 01:47:57 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:48:00 UTC <Hypercane> k 01:48:10 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:48:11 UTC <Hypercane> :3 01:48:13 UTC <Bobnekaro> lol 01:48:21 UTC <MasterGarfield> all the clouds 01:48:22 UTC <MasterGarfield> gone 01:48:26 UTC <Bobnekaro> What would a hurricane do if it instantly went from 26C waters to 1C waters? 01:48:33 UTC <Hypercane> Idk. 01:48:34 UTC <MasterGarfield> what I'm saying right now. 01:48:35 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:48:40 UTC <Bobnekaro> The clouds would stay 01:48:44 UTC <Bobnekaro> The convection would dissipate 01:48:50 UTC <Bobnekaro> :p 01:48:51 UTC <MasterGarfield> convection dies in 900 milliseconds, 01:48:53 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:48:57 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:48:58 UTC <MasterGarfield> Circulation dies in 1 second. 01:49:00 UTC <Bobnekaro> 110 > 40 mph in 1 hour. 01:49:08 UTC <Hypercane> kden 01:49:16 UTC <Hypercane> EW'ing. 01:49:19 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:49:22 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:49:25 UTC <Bobnekaro> the 1C SSTs are actually below average. 01:49:26 UTC <Bobnekaro> :p 01:49:30 UTC <Hypercane> Yeah. 01:49:31 UTC <MasterGarfield> lol 01:49:42 UTC <Hypercane> Now the season will be a bust. 01:49:43 UTC <Hypercane> cri 01:49:45 UTC <Hypercane> jk 01:50:00 UTC <Bobnekaro> Yes that spot of 1C SSTs will make the entire season a bust. 01:50:03 UTC <Bobnekaro> jk (epic) 01:50:06 UTC <Hypercane> kden 01:50:07 UTC <Hypercane> LOL 01:50:08 UTC <MasterGarfield> Wunderbloggers are raging right now about it 01:50:09 UTC <MasterGarfield> :3 01:50:14 UTC <Hypercane> HE USED THE EPIC FACE! 01:50:15 UTC <Hypercane> :3 01:50:16 UTC <MasterGarfield> "LOW SSTS" 01:50:17 UTC <Bobnekaro> lol 01:50:18 UTC <Bobnekaro> :p 01:50:20 UTC <MasterGarfield> "SINKING AIR" 01:50:22 UTC <MasterGarfield> "WIND SHEAR" 01:50:30 UTC <MasterGarfield> "-AMO" 01:50:38 UTC <MasterGarfield> "SAL" 01:50:39 UTC <Hypercane> I wonder if anything could survive 1C SSTs. 01:50:40 UTC <Bobnekaro> help4u hasn't been seen since last August. 01:50:41 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:50:56 UTC <Hypercane> Probably ETs. 01:51:00 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:51:02 UTC <Bobnekaro> :p 01:51:04 UTC <Hypercane> ETCs * 01:51:15 UTC <MasterGarfield> normal clouds? 01:51:16 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:51:20 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:51:32 UTC <Hypercane> I saw a -2C spot once. 01:51:33 UTC <Hypercane> kden 01:51:49 UTC <Hypercane> That's probably the coldest it can be. 01:51:54 UTC <Hypercane> Without it being ice. 01:51:55 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:51:57 UTC <Bobnekaro> :p 01:51:58 UTC <Bobnekaro> yep lol 01:52:05 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:52:08 UTC <Bobnekaro> It seems like the Azores SSTs don't change much all year. 01:52:19 UTC <Bobnekaro> They are like 17C most of the year, maybe they rise to about 21C during season. 01:52:34 UTC <Bobnekaro> Canary Current pls. 01:52:48 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:52:49 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:52:52 UTC <Bobnekaro> That's possibly what limits CV storms in May/June. 01:53:08 UTC <Bobnekaro> in addition to them emerging off Africa at a low latitude. 01:53:14 UTC <Hypercane> CV storms in May/June? 01:53:17 UTC <Hypercane> uwot. 01:53:19 UTC <MasterGarfield> lol 01:53:29 UTC <Bobnekaro> 2003 had a CV TD in June. 01:53:30 UTC <Bobnekaro> lol 01:53:40 UTC <Hypercane> I almost think you meant June/July for a sec. 01:53:41 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:53:45 UTC <Bobnekaro> :p 01:54:02 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 01:54:11 UTC <Hypercane> No way we'll ever have a classic CV storm in May. 01:54:12 UTC <Hypercane> :3 01:54:41 UTC <Bobnekaro> [img="upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/83/Tropical_Depression_Two_%282003%29.jpg"] ugly as crap TD. 01:54:48 UTC <Bobnekaro> Almost looks more like an open wave. 01:54:56 UTC <MasterGarfield> 1999? 01:55:05 UTC <Hypercane> W i s h c a s t i n g 01:55:08 UTC <Hypercane> :3 01:55:18 UTC <Hypercane> 2003. 01:55:20 UTC <Hypercane> @MG 01:55:21 UTC <Hypercane> I think. 01:55:27 UTC <Bobnekaro> 2003. 01:55:28 UTC <MasterGarfield> oh 01:55:30 UTC <MasterGarfield> :p 01:55:39 UTC <Hypercane> That's probably the CV TD he talked about. 01:55:41 UTC <Hypercane> kden 01:56:08 UTC <Hypercane> But anyways we will never have a classic CV storm in May. 01:56:09 UTC <Hypercane> :3 01:56:20 UTC <Bobnekaro> We probably won't. :p 01:56:31 UTC <Hypercane> :P 01:57:04 UTC <Hypercane> B o b  i s   w i s h c a s t i n g 01:57:06 UTC <Hypercane> :3 01:57:18 UTC <Bobnekaro> WOAH https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/861367999193915393/photo/1 01:57:36 UTC <Bobnekaro> Look at those ensemble.s 01:57:39 UTC <Bobnekaro> *ensembles 01:57:53 UTC <Hypercane> B o b  i s   w i s h c a s t i n g 01:57:55 UTC <Hypercane> :3 01:58:02 UTC <Bobnekaro> lol 01:58:08 UTC <Bobnekaro> Bret is still a possibility. 01:58:16 UTC <Bobnekaro> Come on BRET! 01:58:21 UTC <Hypercane> Inb4 40 mph fail. 01:58:27 UTC <Hypercane> W I S H C A S T I N G 01:58:28 UTC <Hypercane> :3 01:58:34 UTC <MasterGarfield> Almost all ensembles (GEFS 18z) take low pressure area of Invest 90E south of Mexico in E Pacific across Central American into Caribbean +5d 01:58:37 UTC <MasterGarfield> > Central American 01:58:38 UTC <MasterGarfield> kden 01:58:44 UTC <Hypercane> kden 01:58:46 UTC <Bobnekaro> LOL 01:58:51 UTC <Bobnekaro> Central American? kek 01:59:09 UTC <Bobnekaro> some of the GFS ensembles have Hurricane Bret in the Caribbean. pls 01:59:50 UTC <Hypercane> B o b  p l s   y o u   a r e   w i s h c a s t i n g 01:59:52 UTC <Hypercane> :3 02:00:00 UTC <MasterGarfield> El Ninkaro? 02:00:02 UTC <MasterGarfield> Wishcasting? 02:00:03 UTC <Bobnekaro> LOL 02:00:06 UTC <MasterGarfield> :3 02:00:09 UTC <MasterGarfield> jk 02:00:11 UTC <Hypercane> LOL 02:00:18 UTC <Bobnekaro> El Ninkaro is hilarious. :p 02:00:24 UTC <Bobnekaro> And I don't even want El Nino. 02:00:25 UTC <MasterGarfield> :P 02:00:32 UTC <MasterGarfield> La Nuno 02:00:34 UTC <Bobnekaro> [small]but we all know Garfield is wishcasting ENSO-neutral 02:00:38 UTC <Bobnekaro> :3 02:00:43 UTC <MasterGarfield> [small] Kden El Nino wishcaster 02:00:44 UTC <MasterGarfield> :3 02:00:50 UTC <Bobnekaro> !savelogs 02:00:57 UTC <Bobnekaro> kden 02:00:58 UTC <Bobnekaro> !refresh 02:01:02 UTC <MasterGarfield> fail 02:01:03 UTC <MasterGarfield> :3 02:01:04 UTC <Bobnekaro> !savelogs 02:01:17 UTC <inline-alert> Welcome to the Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki chat. Please read the chat guidelines and have fun! 02:01:18 UTC <Bobnekaro> kden Slow Baron. 02:01:20 UTC <Hypercane> :3 02:01:24 UTC <Bobnekaro> lol 02:01:27 UTC <Hypercane> oops. 02:01:29 UTC <Hypercane> lol 02:01:31 UTC <Bobnekaro> Am I more of a wishcaster or downcaster? 02:01:36 UTC <Hypercane> Downcaster. 02:01:37 UTC <Bobnekaro> Or am I a realistic forecaster? 02:01:38 UTC <Hypercane> :3 02:01:43 UTC <Bobnekaro> !savelogs