2016 Atlantic hurricane season (Live Version) (Sassmaster15)

The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing annual event of tropical cyclone formation in the North Atlantic ocean. The season began June 1 and will conclude November 30; these are the dates that conventionally limit tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic basin and are adopted by convention. However, tropical cyclone formation is possible any time of the year. As of July 23, 2016, the season's first named storm, Alex, developed in the Gulf of Mexico, nearly two months after the official start. Alex would later make landfall as a minimal hurricane in Pensacola, Florida. After a short respite in activity, Tropical Depression Two formed in the Gulf Stream. Hurricane Bonnie soon followed, developing near the Leeward Islands. Only days later, Tropical Storm Colin formed near Cape Verde.

To this point, most forecasting groups have expected this season to be above average to very active, due to a combination of factors including an expected transition to La Niña and warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and Western Atlantic, despite near-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region near Cape Verde. So far, all of the season's storms have impacted land and caused loss of life, directly or indirectly.

Seasonal Forecasts
The SMWC and all partnering centers released their official outlooks for the season in the box below:

July
After remaining dormant for nearly two months after the official start, tropical cyclogenesis first began with Hurricane Alex in the western Caribbean Sea. Alex traveled north-northeast across the Gulf of Mexico and eventually became a minimal hurricane prior to making landfall in the western Florida panhandle. Alex was the first hurricane landfall in the state of Florida in over a decade since 2005's Hurricane Wilma. Alex later transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone over New England on July 27.

August
Tropical cyclogenesis began once again on August 2, after an occluded cyclone separated from its frontal boundaries and became Tropical Depression Two east of North Carolina. Two failed to intensify beyond tropical depression status and later brushed Massachussets. The remnants of the system later made landfall in Nova Scotia, where it produced heavy rainfall and flooding. Hurricane Bonnie soon followed, forming out of a Cape Verde tropical wave. The system later intensified to a minimal hurricane east of the Leeward Islands, soon making landfall over Antigua and later emerging over the Caribbean. Bonnie would later acquire Category 2 status. On August 13, Tropical Storm Colin formed near Cape Verde. Colin would later pass directly over the Cape Verde islands, casing problems with heavy rainfall.

Tropical Outlook
SASS MASTER WEATHER CENTER CLEVELAND, OH TROPICAL OUTLOOK 10 AM EDT, SUN AUG 15

Hurricane BONNIE

...BONNIE STEADILY STRENGTHENING...IMPACTS IN JAMAICA PROBABLE...

Maximum Sustained Winds: 115 KT (130 MPH), Minimum Pressure: 946 mbar Movement: WNW at 4 MPH

For a major hurricane making landfall in Jamaica... Bonnie has strengthened further to a category four major hurricane... Torrential life-threatening floods were already happening in Jamaica... Evacuations should have already begun...

FORECAST TRAJECTORY

TODAY AT 10 PM.....115 KNOTS..130 MPH/CATGORY 4 MAJOR HURRICANE/CAYMAN ISLANDS AFFECTED TOMORROW AT 7 AM......120 KNOTS..140 MPH/APPROACHES CUBA TOMORROW AT 10 AM......125 KNOTS..145 MPH/LANDFALL IN CUBA TOMORROW AT 4 PM......110 KNOTS..125 MPH/EMERGES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW AT 7 PM.......115 KNOTS..130 MPH/CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE TOMORROW AT 10 PM.......120 KNOTS..140 MPH WEDNESDAY AT 10 AM....110 KNOTS..125 MPH/LANDFALL IN MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY AT 4 PM.....70 KNOTS...90 MPH/STEADY WEAKENING PHASE/INLAND WEDNESDAY AT 7 PM.....45 KNOTS...50 MPH/TROPICAL STORM/INLAND

ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...EXTENDING FROM...LES ANGLAIS...TO...JACMEL TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INCLUDING...LITTLE CAYMAN...AND CAYMAN BRAC HURRICANE WATCH FOR SOUTHERN CENTRAL CUBA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CENTRAL CUBA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INCLUDING...LITTLE CAYMAN...AND CAYMAN BRAC HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA...AND...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INCLUDING...GRAND CAYMAN

MARINE ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS

RIP CURRENT WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS ALONG SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING...BAHIA DE NELBA...AND BAHIA DE OCOA

EVACUATION ORDERS

NONE

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND --

WIND............TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE BEGUN AFFECTING SOUTHERN HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE LARGE SPAN OF THE STORM. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND SUBSIDE BY 04:00 UTC TOMORROW. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COUNTRY. A WEATHER STATION IN JACMEL RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 52 MILES PER HOUR. CAUTION IS RECOMMENDED.

RAINFALL........THE OUTER EYEWALL OF BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN HAITI. TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NO MORE THAN TWO INCHES. ISOLATED SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE DEPARTMENTS OF SUD AND SUD-EST MAY SEE UP TO FIVE INCHES OF RAINFALL. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN TRIGGER DANGEROUS LAND AND ROCK SLIDES.

STORM SURGE.....BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SEA LEVELS THREE TO FOUR FEET DURING ITS PASSAGE. COASTAL AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME OVERWASH AND FLOODING. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES FORCEFUL ENOUGH TO LOOSEN LARGE BOULDERS. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. PLEASE AVOID ALL BODIES OF WATER FOR THE TIME BEING. SMWC BUOY #3175468 RECENTLY RECORDED A WAVE HEIGHT OF 34 FEET AND A PRESSURE OF 988 MILLIBARS.

Next complete advisory at 10 P.M. EDT today. In the meantime, special advisories maybe issued if conditions warrant. For further information, please consult the products provided by your local National Weather Service. Advisories, watches, and warnings updated on the hour.

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FORECASTER SASSMASTER

NNNN SASS MASTER WEATHER CENTER CLEVELAND, OH TROPICAL OUTLOOK 7 PM EDT, SUN AUG 14

Hurricane COLIN

...COLIN STILL A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...

Maximum Sustained Winds: 80 kt (90 MPH), Minimum Pressure: 968 mbar Movement: W at 12 MPH

For a category one hurricane named Colin in the open Atlantic.. Collin has improved slightly over the past few hours in appearance and its eye has gotten better defined on satellite imagery..

FORECAST TRAJECTORY

TODAY AT 10 PM......85 KNOTS...100 MPH/CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE TOMORROW AT 10 AM......90 KNOTS...105 MPH/CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE TOMORROW AT 4 PM......85 KNOTS...100 MPH/CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE TOMORROW AT 7 PM.......75 KNOTS...85 MPH/CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE WEDNESDAY AT 10 AM.......60 KNOTS...70 MPH/TROPICAL STORM WEDNESDAY AT 4 PM....55 KNOTS...65 MPH/APPROACHES LESSER ANTILLES WEDNESDAY AT 7 PM.....50 KNOTS...60 MPH/STRIKES LESSER ANTILLES THURSDAY AT 10 AM.....40 KNOTS...45 MPH/ENTERS CARIBBEAN

ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS

NONE

MARINE ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS

NONE

EVACUATION ORDERS

NONE

Next complete advisory at 10 P.M. EDT today. In the meantime, special advisories maybe issued if conditions warrant. For further information, please consult the products provided by your local National Weather Service. Advisories, watches, and warnings updated on the hour.

$$

FORECASTER SASSMASTER

NNNN

Hurricane Alex
On July 22, an area of disturbed weather traveling through the Caribbean later shifted to the northwest after a building ridge of high pressure to the southwest induced the directional change. Initially, another trough ahead of the disturbance resulted in it stalling just to the southwest of Cuba. However, the trough soon dissipated and the system later consolidated into the season's first tropical depression the next day. Continuing to travel on a near-northernly track to the west of Cuba, lessening wind shear allowed for additional intensification, thus, the system became Tropical Storm Alex the same day. On July 24, Alex entered the Gulf of Mexico while situated to the west of the Dry Tortugas. Since then, Alex continued to accelerate north-northeast towards the United States Gulf Coast. After rapidly growing in size, Alex attained winds of 65 knots, the required threshold for minimal hurricane status; the first of the season. Several hours later, a convective blowup took place in the core of the hurricane. This resulted in the storm attaining winds of 70 knots; its peak intensity. At 00:00 UTC, Alex made landfall at that intensity just east of Pensacola, Florida. Alex became the first hurricane-strength tropical cyclone to make landfall in Florida since Hurricane Wilma of 2005. Some destruction ensued from the hurricane, including severe flooding in Navarre Beach, where two fatalities were later reported. Alex weakened to a tropical storm upon crossing the Florida-Georgia border, persisting as a fully tropical cyclone despite unfavorable conditions due to land interaction. At 13:00 UTC, July 27, Alex was designated as a post-tropical cyclone whilst over West Virginia. At the time, the cyclone was retaining maximum sustained winds of 50 knots. The PT cyclone continued on a course north-northeast, where it was absorbed into a frontal system the following day over Quebec.

Upon landfall near Pensacola, the area was subjected to torrential rainfall and hurricane-force winds of 70 knots. Alex caused sporadic power outages throughout the western Florida panhandle, with the city of Navarre being the worst affected. At the height of the hurricane, Alex caused nearly 9,000 customers to lose electrical power. Wind damage was severely exacerbated in Fort Walton Beach by an EF1 tornado, which destroyed thirty-three houses and left another twenty-one roofless. Despite landfall at low tide, storm tides peaked at nearly four feet in height. Santa Rosa Island was mostly inundated by a four foot storm surge, rendering most roads impassible and leaving nearly two-hundred homes and businesses uninhabitable. Inland, rainfall amounts totaled nearly five inches. Some street flooding was observed in Valparaiso. Throughout the Florida panhandle, Alex caused two-hundred-and-five million in damages, with Santa Rosa Island being the worst affected. Two deaths were reported due to flooding in Navarre Beach; these being the only fatalities to occur during Hurricane Alex. A further twenty people were seriously injured in the hurricane, most centered in Pensacola and Santa Rosa Island.

Tropical Depression Two
On August 2, a decaying cold front coupled with an occluded cyclone moved off the coast of South Carolina. Progressing up the Gulf Stream along the East Coast of the United States, the cyclone slowly detached itself from its frontal boundaries as the production of convection began in the vicinity of the center. By August 4, the cyclone gradually took on tropical characteristics while off the coast of North Carolina. As more deep convection began being produced near the center of circulation, the SMWC initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Two that same day. A strong upper-level anticyclone over New England inhibited progress northward, and the depression stalled for several days while just offshore North Carolina. On August 8, at 22:00 UTC, Two began moving once again as the anticyclone continued eastward. The following day, a convective burst near the center prompted the upgrade of Two's wind speed to 30 knots. Several hours later, Two passed to the east of Massachussets, which reported only fringe effects from the system. At 23:00 UTC, a significant lack of deep convection associated with increasing wind shear imparted a weakening trend, causing the system to degenerate into a remnant low on August 10. Several hours later, the remnant system associated with Two made landfall near Halifax, Nova Scotia. Heavy rainfall triggered minor flooding throughout Halifax, with the effects of the system resulting in some road closures. The remnants of the system further dissipated over the Gulf of St. Lawrence the next day. An indirect death was attributed to a traffic accident in Halifax, where one vehicle collided with another due to slick roads.

Hurricane Bonnie
On August 4, the SMWC began monitoring a surface area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave just northwest of Cape Verde. The wave rapidly consolidated, attaining all the characteristics of a tropical cyclone the same day. At the 00:00 UTC advisory, the wave was found to have sustained tropical storm-force winds. However, SMWC recon flights failed to identify a lower-level closed circulation, preventing classification as a tropical storm. Over the next several days, the system, dubbed Invest 92L, tracked across the central tropical Atlantic without undergoing much change in strength or organization. On August 9, a special advisory was initiated at 04:00 UTC after reconnaissance aircraft found a LLCC within the center of the storm, thus resulting in the classification of Tropical Storm Bonnie while situated 164 miles east of the Leeward Islands. At the 14:00 UTC advisory the same day, it was found that a clear convective core existed in the center of circulation, with an ASCAT pass revealing the presence of three 55-knot vectors within the cyclone. This prompted an upgrade to 55 knots at the advisory. Over the next several days, a ridge of high pressure centered over the eastern Caribbean further stalled Bonnie just east of the Leeward Islands.

Maintaining strength, the cyclone began intensifying once again on August 13, with a recon flight reporting 1-minute sustained winds of 65 knots, thus, upgrading Bonnie to a Category 1 hurricane. Prompting the issuance of a special advisory at 17:00 UTC, Bonnie began moving over the Leeward Islands just hours later. Approximately 20:00 UTC, Bonnie made landfall over the island of Antigua as a Category 1 hurricane with 65 kt winds. That evening, Bonnie departed the Leeward Islands and emerged into the Caribbean. Above-average SSTs coupled with lessening wind shear provided the necessary ingredients for further intensification, and at the 14:00 UTC advisory, Bonnie was upgraded to 80 knots following a significant improvement in organization. Bonnie continued to intensify, becoming a Category 2 hurricane at 20:00 UTC. Over the next several hours, Bonnie rapidly grew in size as its diameter measured 215 miles across. At the next advisory, Bonnie nearly became a major hurricane after attaining winds of 95 knots and a minimum pressure of 969. Bonnie is expected to strike Jamaica in the next 36 hours. At 10 am August 15, it became a major hurricane.

Current Storm Information
The center of Major Hurricane Bonnie is situated over Hispaniola. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for south central Cuba, with the following provinces included in the watch area: Sancti Spíritus, Ciego de Ávila, and Camaguey. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for southwestern Haiti. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for the Cayman Islands. Maximum sustained winds of one minute are 115 knots, with higher gusts. Recon data indicate some gusts of 125 knots. The pressure is 946 millibars and the system is moving to the west at 8 miles per hour. Tropical storm-force winds extend outwards up to 137 miles from the center of Bonnie, with the most intense bands in the North and East quadrants. Hurricane-force winds extend outwards up to 77 miles from the center.

For further information, please see:


 * The SMWC's latest Public Advisory on Bonnie (see above)


 * The BMC's latest on Bonnie

Hurricane Colin
At 02:00 UTC August 14, the SMWC noted in their Tropical Weather Outlook that significant strengthening was possible for a newly-developed tropical wave west of Africa. Dubbed Invest 93L, the wave rapidly consolidated due to abnormally favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions. In under an hour, recon flights identified a lower-level closed circulation (LLCC) at the surface, coupled with the rapid acquirement of tropical storm-force winds of 35 knots. As such, a special advisory was initiated at 03:00 UTC and the system received the name Colin. Colin slowly tracked to the west-northwest, gradually strengthening. The system attained winds of 45 knots prior to making landfall over the Cape Verdian island of Maio at approximately 13:00 UTC. After slowly moving across Cape Verde, Colin retained its strength and went on to continue intensifying, later acquiring winds of 60 knots, falling just short of hurricane intensity.

Current Storm Information
The center of Hurricane Colin is situated over the open Atlantic. All watches and warnings for Cape Verde have been discontinued. Colin is expected to continue intensifying as it traverses the central Atlantic. Maximum one-minute sustained winds are 70 knots, with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure is 977 millibars and the system is moving to the west at 12 miles per hour. Tropical storm-force winds currently extend 58 miles from the center of Colin, while hurricane-force winds extend 13 miles from the center.

For further information, please see:


 * The SMWC's latest Public Advisory on Colin (see above)
 * The BMC's latest on Colin

Storm Names
The following list of names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2016. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2017. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2022 season. This is the same list used in the 2010 season, with the exception of Ian and Tobias, which replaced Igor and Tomas, respectively.