User blog:Bobnekaro/Polar cyclone season around the corner

By Bob Nekaro, BNWC Chief Meteorologist

Polar cyclone season in the Arctic is drawing closer and closer. The season officially begins November 1, although storms in October are not uncommon. Polar cyclone season this year actually started extremely early with Catastrophic Polar Cyclone Advent back in late June, which was able to become a polar cyclone over fairly warm sea surface temperatures due to high instability. We also had a short-lived area of interest in late August in the Hudson Bay, although this failed to develop.

The BNWC is currently forecasting a near average to slightly above average polar cyclone season in the Arctic in 2016-17, with 16 named storms, 9 polar cyclones, and 4 major polar cyclones forecast. However, polar cyclone seasons are very hard to predict, and this prediction could be incorrect.

There is a lot of questions about when the second named storm of the polar cyclone season will arrive. Currently, the MJO state in the Arctic is suppressed with sinking, dry air. However, sometime in late September to early October, a more favorable pattern is likely to begin to set up, which could allow for another pre-season storm. However, sea surface temperatures in late September and early October are generally not favorable enough for development. Traditionally, the Arctic polar cyclone season has its first named storm form around November 6, averaging about one storm a week in November and two storms a week in December. The season generally peaks around December 15 to 20, before a sharp downward trend in activity in late December. The season then officially ends on January 7, which is the average date for the dissipation of the last storm.

Currently, while are no models forecasting any polar cyclone development in the Arctic region, Invest 90A has developed from an Extratropical Cyclone off South America in the Antarctic Region and could form into Subpolar or Polar Storm Anthony over the weekend or early next week. The latest special polar weather outlook issued by the CDMC gives this cyclone a 40% chance of developing within the next 5 days. For information on this system, follow the Collin D Meteorological Center, which is issuing special polar weather outlooks.