2017 Great Lakes Hurricane Season

The 2017 Great Lakes hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation, in which tropical cyclones form in the Great Lakes of the mid-west United States. The season officially begins on June 1, 2017, and end on November 30, 2017. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Great Lakes basin and are adopted by convention. However, the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time of the year, as seen with Hurricane Andy, which became the earliest Category 5 Hurricane on record in the Great Lakes basin.

Hurricane Andy
Main Article: http://hypotheticalhurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Hurricane_Andy

On January 16th, an Alberta clipper started to behave unusually. The storm's forward speed started to slow down and it started to gain strength. The storm gained gale-force winds later that day. By this time, the NHC labeled the system as a Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) and started issuing advisories on the system. Tropical Storm Watches then started to get issued for the northern shore of Michigan along Lake Superior, along with Winter Storm Watches, considering the arctic air in the forecast equation. The next day, the storm had a warm-core center and 50 MPH sustained winds, and the NHC upgraded the PTC to Tropical Storm Andy. Upon the upgrade, all the Tropical Storm Watches were upgraded to Tropical Storm Warnings, and Winter Storm Warnings got issued as well, with forecasts calling for up to 15 to 28 inches of snow. By this time, the new Storm Surge Warnings got issued along the Lake Superior coastline, now being out of the prototype stage. The NHC predicted storm surge of 3 to 5 feet along the coast. On January 18th, Andy made its first landfall as a 60 MPH tropical storm. As Andy traveled across the UP of Michigan and was heading toward Lake Michigan, the storm maintained a stable intensity at 60 MPH despite the cold snow pack on the ground, and intensified quickly to a 70 MPH tropical storm upon entering the warm waters of Lake Michigan. Early on January 19th, Andy became a 75 MPH Category 1 Hurricane. The projected path of Hurricane Andy had the storm making a right turn towards the West Coast of Michigan. By this time, Hurricane Warnings were put up along the western shoreline of Michigan, along with Winter Storm Warnings. The Storm Surge Warnings issued had storm surge up to 15 feet in the forecasts. On January 19th, Hurricane Andy intensified to a Category 2 hurricane and started to make the turn east towards Michigan. Before landfall, Andy intensified to a Category 3 major hurricane, becoming the earliest recorded major hurricane in the Great Lakes basin and the earliest recorded major hurricane overall in the Western Hemisphere. On January 20th, Andy made landfall as a 120 MPH Category 3 hurricane near Saint Joseph, Michigan. Andy started to weaken upon landfall and was an 80 MPH Category 1 Hurricane by January 21st near Jackson, Michigan. Andy maintained an 80 MPH Category 1 intensity as it crossed the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, while dumping as much as 4 to 5 feet of snow, with some rain on top of it for where the core passed over. Later that same day, Andy reemerged into the warmer waters of Lake Erie and rapidly re-intensified to a 105 MPH Category 2 hurricane. From there, Andy continued to rapidly intensify throughout January 22nd as it brought severe storm surge to the Lake Erie coastline along with heavy snow. Late on January 22nd, Andy became a 160 MPH Category 5 hurricane, with a projected path towards Buffalo, New York. Early on January 23rd, just before the storm's third landfall, Andy reached his peak intensity of 180 MPH. The storm made landfall in Buffalo the same day and did not weaken over land. It soon moved into the waters of Lake Ontario and it churned its waters with a steady 180 MPH Category 5 intensity. Before its landfall in Sackets Harbor, New York, Andy started to weaken as it underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, weakening the storm to a 150 MPH Category 4 Hurricane. The storm made landfall late on January 24th as a 150 MPH Category 4 hurricane and then started to diminish rapidly as it moved inland. On January 25th, Andy was an 80 MPH Category 1 hurricane undergoing transition to an extratropical cyclone and at 12:00 PM EST, Andy was no longer tropical, and the NHC stopped tracking the remnants late on January 25th, with no chance of regaining tropical characteristics. The storm caused $4 billion in damages, took 33 lives, and dropped as much as 90 inches of snow in some locations.

Hurricane Brad
An area of disturbed weather formed over Lake Huron on March 30th. At first, the activity in the disturbance had very little convection and the NHC only gave the system a 10% chance of developing due to unfavorable conditions ahead of the system. Soon, however, the system started to gain more convection around its center and the winds started to increase to gale-force. By the end of March 30th, the center of low pressure transitioned to a warm-core low. A Hurricane Hunters flight was sent into the storm to see if the system was tropical or not. The Hurricane Hunters found the system was a tropical system, therefore initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Brad, with winds of 45 MPH, by the end of March 30th. After this classification, Tropical Storm Warnings got issued for parts of Northern Michigan along with Storm Surge Advisories. Brad was projected at a landfall in the northern LP of Michigan, with slight strengthening expected. Brad slightly strengthened to a 50 MPH tropical storm before making its first landfall sometime on March 31st. Despite the landfall, Brad did not weaken very much. As Brad moved over the lands of Michigan, it weakened slightly to a 45 MPH tropical storm and maintained that intensity until it moved over the warm waters of Lake Huron around noon on April 1st. The storm then rapidly intensified from a 45 MPH tropical storm to a 70 MPH strong tropical storm in less than 12 hours. Hurricane Warnings started getting posted by Environment Canada due to forecasts of Brad intensifying further to become a Category 1 hurricane. The forecasts were right, as Brad intensified quickly to a 75 MPH Category 1 hurricane as it headed for landfall in Kettle Point, Canada. Before the second landfall, Brad intensified slightly to achieve a peak intensity of 80 MPH. It made landfall in Kettle Point shortly after reaching that peak intensity. Brad started to weaken significantly as it moved over land, and the structure became somewhat disorganized. On April 3rd, Brad moved over the waters of Lake Erie as a 50 MPH tropical storm. After moving over the favorable waters of Lake Erie, Brad began to rapidly intensify once again and became a Category 1 Hurricane once again by April 4th. As the storm continued on a NNE path, it intensified to become a Category 2 hurricane, with winds of 100 MPH. When Brad got near Buffalo, it intensified slightly to achieve an intensity of 105 MPH. Brad made its third landfall in Buffalo as a 105 MPH Category 2 hurricane. Brad did not weaken passing over land and maintained 105 MPH winds when it reemerged over the warm waters of Lake Ontario. With more favorable conditions to work with, Brad began another period of rapid intensification as sustained winds increased to 110 MPH. Due to the threat to Canada, the NHC decided to put out a special advisory for 7 PM. Before the hurricane hunters took flight to investigate Brad, radar images showed Brad had suddenly stalled out after the 5 PM advisory was issued. When the hurricane hunters investigates the storm, sustained winds of 115 MPH were found in the eyewall, prompting the upgrade to a Category 3 hurricane, the second major hurricane of the season.

Current Storm Information
As of 05:00 PM EST on April 6th, 2017, Hurricane Brad is located 42 Miles SSE of Toronto, Canada. Hurricane-force winds extend 17 miles from the center, while tropical storm-force winds extend out 74 miles. Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the Lake Ontario coastline, mainly in Canada. Brad is moving North at 6 MPH.

Latest NHC Advisory
000 WTNT38 KNHC 092341 TCPAT7 BULLETIN HURRICANE BRAD ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL      AL142016 500 PM EDT THU APR 06 2017 ...HURRICANE BRAD CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY LANDFALL EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION -- LOCATION...43.3N -79.1W ABOUT 42 MI...67.5 KM SSE OF TORONTO CANADA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N AT 6 MPH...9.6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.37 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: Hurricane Brad is now a 115 MPH Category 3 Major Hurricane SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK -- At 700 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Brad was located near 43.3N -79.1W. The hurricane is moving north at 6 MPH (9.6 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. The storm is expected to weaken after it makes landfall later tonight due to land interaction. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 17 miles (27.3 km), all around the center of the tropical cyclone's eye structure, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 74 miles (119 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from a NASA Global Hawk aircraft is 971 mb (28.37 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND -- WIND: Wind gusts to hurricane force will continue over portions of the Toronto Metro Area tonight. STORM SURGE: Dangerously high water levels over portions of the Toronto Metro Area will get worse as Brad gets closer to landfall. Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for additional information. RAINFALL: Life-threatening flooding will continue over portions of Ontario and New York that have received record rains from Brad. Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for additional information and warnings. SURF: Swells generated by Brad will continue to affect much of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie as Brad continues to pull away. The swells will die down after Brad moves out. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY - 1000 PM EST $$ Forecaster Ypsi

Storm Names
The following list of names will be used for named storms that form in the Great Lakes in 2017. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization sometime after the storm happens. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2023 season.[5] This is the second list generated by the NHC to be used for the Great Lakes basin after tropical cyclones in the Great Lakes region started getting named back in 2016.