2016 Atlantic hurricane season (Predictions - Sassmaster15)

The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season was an above-average season that resulted in the formation of sixteen named storms, nine hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. Due to the transition from an El Nino to a Moderate La Nina, activity was at its highest since 2012. The season ran year-round, with the formation of Hurricane Alex on January 13 and the dissipation of Subtropical Storm Richard in late December.

The season featured the highest number of hurricanes in the Atlantic since 2012, which had a total of ten hurricanes, only one less than the other season. The season started exceptionally early, with the formation of Hurricane Alex on January 13, having become the first January hurricane since Hurricane One of 1938. Another highlight of 2016 was that the first Category 5 hurricane was seen in the Atlantic basin since Felix of 2007, Hermine, which peaked at 175 MPH, 893 mbar. Hermine, after making two separate landfalls, would eventually become the third costliest hurricane in Atlantic history, only to be surpassed by Hurricane Karl weeks later.

Hurricane Karl was the second Category 5 hurricane to occur during the season, eventually peaking at 180 MPH, 891 mbar, becoming one of the most intense hurricanes to occur in the Atlantic. Karl also made landfall in Nicaragua at peak intensity, resulting in massive devastation, becoming the third costliest hurricane in Atlantic history, having knocked Hermine out of her spot.

A large portion of the storms caused significant damage, with the first storm (Nicole) making landfall in the U.S. at major hurricane intensity since Wilma of 2005. In addition, several other major and non-major hurricanes all made landfall in places around the Atlantic at or near peak intensity, causing significant damage.

January & February
On January 13, an extratropical low pushing east across the Northern Atlantic developed into what became known as Hurricane Alex, the first hurricane in January since Hurricane One of 1938; the first named January storm since Alice in 1955. The precursor to the system brought 60 MPH winds and heavy rainfall to Bermuda, and then took on tropical characteristics on January 13, nearing the Azores. Alex, after causing minimal damages in the Azores, shifted WNW as it turned extratropical, dissipating two days later on January 15.

February remained a quiet month, as no other systems or invests developed during the month.

May & June
Tropical Storm Bonnie developed on May 22, after a very quiet period with no activity during the months of February, March, or April. Bonnie first developed near the Bahamas before making a complete loop in the Central Gulf, peaking at 50 MPH, prior to making landfall in Cedar Key, Florida, causing minimal damage with moderate winds and steady rain, eventually leading to moderate coastal flooding in the area, dissipating soon after, with the extratropical remnants of Bonnie making landfall in Nova Scotia, where further damage from the storm would occur.

June proved to be an active month, as three named storms formed during the month, of which two reached hurricane status. Hurricane Colin was the first of the June storms, becoming a hurricane a day after formation on June 12, eventually peaking at 80 MPH, south of Bermuda, before shifting ENE, skirting the island with rain showers prior to becoming extratropical, with the storm's remnants making landfall in Ireland, having caused very minimal damage. Tropical Storm Danielle was the fourth named storm of the season, developing near the Bahamas and traveling along the coast of the Eastern United States prior to turning extratropical near Iceland. Hurricane Earl was the first major hurricane of the season, developing Northeast of Turks and Caicos and making several loops in the western portion of the Northern Atlantic, skimming Bermuda but never making landfall there. Earl also produced indirect effects on the U.S., when large swells from the storm reportedly overturned several boats, resulting in the deaths of several people. Earl began to shift ENE near Nova Scotia as it turned extratropical later dissipating, going on to cause damage in the UK and as far east as Russia. The end of June concluded with the dissipation of Subtropical Depression Six, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico, later caused rain showers in Florida before entering the Northern Atlantic and being absorbed by a frontal system only a day later.

July & August
July was slightly less active than the previous month, with only two named storms forming: Fiona, a classic Cape Verde major hurricane that peaked at Category 4 intensity, followed by Gaston, a short-lived tropical storm that formed near Puerto Rico and traveled just east of the Eastern United States. Hurricane Fiona developed from a Cape Verde tropical wave on July 11 and began to explosively intensify as it traveled west over the Central Atlantic. Fiona peaked at 145 MPH near Turks and Caicos prior to turning North and hitting Bermuda as a high-end Category 2 hurricane. Fiona then turned extratropical, remaining at C1 strength and then made a direct landfall on Nova Scotia, dissipating entirely as it was absorbed by a frontal system over Prince Edward Island. Tropical Storm Gaston developed north of Puerto Rico from a band of storms along a frontal system when a core of low pressure began to develop. The system developed subtropical, but eventually became tropical as it passed just east of the United States, causing minor issues with rough surf and coastal flooding. Gaston eventually followed Fiona's track into Nova Scotia where it made landfall as an extratropical cyclone on July 30.

August was one of the most active months of the season, ahead of June and September due to the amount of storms forming during the month. Hurricane Hermine was the first Category 5 hurricane to occur in the Atlantic since Felix in 2007. The storm developed from a well-defined tropical wave over the Central Atlantic, and continued to travel Northwest for the majority of its life, staying out to sea. However, Hermine peaked near Bermuda at 175 MPH, causing extensive damage with high waves and storm surge. Hermine then looped to the northeast of Bermuda and turned southwest, once again making an indirect hit on the island. Hermine then made landfall in North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane, causing widespread wind damage as far inland as Raleigh. Hermine then turned extratropical near New York and eventually pushed inland, the storm's remnants dissipating over Lake Erie. Hermine is the third costliest hurricane to occur in the Atlantic, pushing Ike of 2008 down to number 4, sitting only behind Hurricanes Katrina of 2005 and Sandy of 2012, having resulted in over $53 billion in damages, the majority of it in Bermuda and North Carolina. Hermine was also directly responsible for over 162 deaths.

Hurricane Ian developed just days after Hermine on August 12, 435 miles southeast of the Leeward Islands from an initially poorly-defined tropical wave. However, the wave gradually intensified into a depression due to low wind shear, which normally inhibits tropical development over water. Ian eventually hit the Leeward Islands on August 13 as a tropical storm, though damage was minimal. Ian peaked as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 MPH winds prior to making landfall in Quintana Roo as a weakening Category 1 hurricane, causing over $145 million in damages. Ian then turned extratropical before experiencing a short rebirth of strength as a tropical system over the Gulf before dissipating completely near Louisiana. Tropical Storm Julia developed north of Puerto Rico and then continued to travel WNW as a weak tropical storm, producing rain showers over the Caribbean and parts of the Bahamas. Julia also had some effects on Florida as a weakened depression prior to strengthening again over the Gulf and making a secondary landfall in the Florida panhandle as an extratropical system, having caused over $52 million in damages.

Hurricane Karl was the second Category 5 hurricane of the season, and is one of the strongest hurricanes to occur in the Atlantic, behind Wilma of 2005 and Gilbert of 1988, with a record low pressure of 891 mbar. Karl is also tied with Rita of 2005 and Mitch of 1988 for having the most intense wind speeds, with maximum winds estimated to be 180 MPH. Karl developed from a late-stage tropical wave that produced showers over the Leeward Islands, eventually strengthening to Category 5 over the Caribbean, and making landfall at that intensity in Nicaragua, causing massive devastation, knocking Hermine out of third place for being one of the most costliest hurricanes in the Atlantic, with damages estimated to be $59 billion. In addition, Karl's winds and heavy rainfall resulted in enormous mudslides that caused over 2,000 fatalities in Nicaragua and Honduras. Karl also had effects on Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Quintana Roo, the ABC Islands, and Venezuela while over the Caribbean. Tropical Storm Lisa developed on August 21 near Jamaica. Lisa narrowly avoided being absorbed by Hurricane Karl as it passed to the storm's south, however, Lisa continued to push NW into Cuba, causing minimal damage prior to emerging over the Gulf, where Lisa attained a peak intensity of 50 MPH prior to making landfall in New Orleans, where damage was mainly minimal. The precursor to Tropical Depression Fourteen had effects on the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos, mainly flooding attributed to heavy rainfall, in addition to scattered power outages and tree damage due to gusty winds.

September & October
September got off to an early start to an increasingly active season with the formation of Tropical Storm Matthew on September 4. Matthew developed in the Gulf of Mexico and continued to travel Northeast, eventually making landfall in Tampa, Florida on September 6 shortly after reaching peak intensity. Effects were mainly minimal.  Hurricane Nicole was an intense Category 4 hurricane that formed to the east of the Bahamas and began pushing west, making numerous landfalls. Damage was mainly minimal in the Bahamas, where Nicole made landfall as a weak tropical storm, followed by a short burst of the strengthening while it made landfall in Florida as a Category 1. Nicole then emerged over the Gulf of Mexico, having not weakened, but continued to strengthen over the Gulf, eventually peaking at 150 MPH, 939 mbar, followed by a turn north, thus resulting in a direct landfall in Lousiana at Category 3 intensity, having become the first hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. as a major storm since Wilma in 2005, thus resulting in massive damage. Tropical Storm Otto developed from an initially weak tropical wave that began tracking northeast, strengthening to a depression over the Cayman Islands, causing slight damage. Emerging over the Gulf, the system then took on an enormous size, entering a Fujiwhara with Hurricane Fiona but quickly removing itself from that, having lost a quarter of its circulation to Fiona. Otto them made landfall in Central Florida, absorbing the remnants of a weaker tropical system, causing heavy damage with high winds and torrential rainfall.

Hurricane Alex
Taken from Wikipedia

On January 7, the National Hurricane Center noted the potential for an extratropical low about 425 mi (685 km) west-southwest of Bermuda to gain subtropical or tropical characteristics over subsequent days, as it tracked across the central Atlantic. Convection began to coalesce near the center of the low on January 13, leading to the formation of Subtropical Storm Alex about 785 miles (1,260 km) south-southwest of the Azores, at 21:00 UTC. Alex is the first tropical or subtropical storm to form in January since 1978, and only the fourth known tropical or subtropical cyclone formation during the month on record. When Alex became a hurricane at 15:00 UTC on January 14, it marked only the second recorded hurricane formation in January, with the other being Hurricane One in 1938. On January 15, the NHC issued its last advisory on Hurricane Alex, as the system transitioned back into an extratropical cyclone. On January 17, Alex was absorbed by another extratropical cyclone, in the southern Labrador Sea.

Subtropical Depression Six
On June 29, an area of low-pressure associated with a frontal system crossing the Central Atlantic began to merge around a steadily deepening core.

Hurricane Fiona
On July 11, a Cape Verde tropical wave became increasingly well-defined as the system took on a cyclonic shape near a rapidly-deepening core of low-pressure. The area of showers and thunderstorms began to intensify due to record-warm waters and a sudden decrease in wind shear as the wave became Tropical Depression Seven.

Tropical Storm Gaston
On July 27, a frontal system associated with a broadband area of low pressure became well organized enough to be classified as Subtropical Depression Eight, when the system was found to have a warm core of low pressure, as well as winds maxing near 30 MPH, with gusts as high as 50 MPH.

Hurricane Hermine
A well-defined tropical wave pushed out of Cape Verde on August 7, having produced light rain showers and sea breezes around the islands. The system continued to push west as the NHC monitored the system for tropical development, as record-warm waters of 92 degrees Fahrenheit, along with decreasing wind shear allowed for a burst of convection in the system's center, further decreasing the storm's pressure.

Hurricane Ian
On August 12, an initially poorly-developed tropical wave began to develop cyclonic-type circulation on August 12. Associated with a decreasing area of low-pressure, the wave became Tropical Depression Ten later that day southeast of the Leeward Islands. Within hours, the depression became increasingly organized as the outer bands of the storm tightened. A U.S. navy vessel named Elizabeth Faro III was patrolling near Barbados when the storm hit, of which crew members reported gusty winds and heavy rainfall, but only moderate surf that posed dangers to small boats. Ian then strengthened to 50 MPH as it passed to the west of St. Vincent, where the storm caused only minimal damage.

Tropical Storm Julia
On August 15, a frontal system collided with a weak low-pressure system over Puerto Rico and slowly began to strengthen as short bursts of convection began to occur in the system's center. A sudden increase in the storm's wind speed to 40 MPH further resulted in the system's upgrade to a tropical storm, thus resulting in its name, Julia.

Hurricane Karl
On August 18, the NHC began monitoring a Fujiwhara between an organizing tropical wave and an upper-level low for potential merging into what was a rare tropical system. Within hours, the rapidly strengthening wave became a depression and absorbed the low into itself, thus doubling the size of the mammoth system.

Tropical Storm Lisa
On August 21, a low-pressure system to the southeast of Jamaica began tightening its circulation as convection began to appear in the storm's core. The system then began to intensify rapidly due to a sudden drop in wind shear as Hurricane Karl continued to intensify to the southeast. Lisa became Tropical Depression Thirteen, of which later was pushed over Cuba by intense outflow from Category 4 Hurricane Karl as the storm passed to the south of Jamaica.

Tropical Depression Fourteen
On August 24, a low-pressure system to the east of Turks and Caicos began to undergo a transition into tropical development as closed circulation developed while the system's outer rain bands began intensifying. Even before the storm turned tropical, the extratropical system produced 35 MPH winds and heavy rains, mainly in Cockburn Town, causing flash flooding and slick roads.

Tropical Storm Matthew
On September 4, a vigorous extratropical system pushed across Mexico and emerged just north of the Yucatán over the Gulf of Mexico. The system began to rapidly intensify as it took on subtropical characteristics, then tropical characteristics within hours, having being upgraded to Tropical Storm Matthew when a recon flight found 45 MPH winds in the storm's deepening core. Matthew continued to travel northeast across the Gulf as Tropical Storm Watches were issued from Louisiana to the Florida Keys as the storm took on a fairly large size for a tropical storm. By September 5, Matthew experienced a burst of convection prior to slamming into a trough of wind shear, which resulted in the southwest portion of the storm being torn apart, however, convection and rapid pressure drops resulted in the formation of an eye in the core.

Hurricane Nicole
On September 10, a tropical wave began to undergo development just east of the Bahamas. Within hours, the system was estimated have winds maxing at 30 MPH as the new depression continued to travel west.

Tropical Storm Otto
On September 13, a developing tropical wave east of the Yucatán began to slowly intensify, intensification hindered due to increasing wind shear. Within hours, the system turned northeast as a sudden pressure drop resulted in intensification near the storm's core. Tropical Depression Seventeen, as it became known as, then passed over the Cayman Islands, bringing heavy rain that resulted in widespread flooding, as well as the production of a weak tornado near George Town that resulted in $23 million in damages.

Hurricane Paula
On September 24, an upper-level low merged with an extratropical system near Bermuda and began to produce inclement weather to the south of the island, mainly torrential rain and severe thunderstorms. Within hours, convection began to coalesce around a centralized area of low pressure, resulting in a tightening circulation of the system's outer rain bands.