Hurricane Karen-Kiko (2025)

Hurricane Karen (also known as the Great 2024 Honduras hurricane or as Hurricane Karen-Kiko) was a large, extremely catastrophic and deadly yet short-lived hurricane which struck Central America. One of the furthest, if not the furthest southward land-falling Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.

The eleventh named storm, sixth hurricane and second major hurricane of the catastrophic 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

The storm is the deadliest in the Atlantic basin's history, and one of the deadliest in history, with at-least 20,000 deaths occurring. Another 27 were killed in Mexico when the storm's successor made landfall in the Pacific as Hurricane Kiko, a weak Category 1. It was the wettest tropical cyclone in Honduras' and Belize's histories, and the 4th wettest to effect Mexico.

The storms remnants would be responsible for a single flooding death in Austin, Texas on September 25. The storm is a controversial one due to it's extremely poor forecast rapid intensification.

Hurricane Karen (Atlantic)
On September 4, the National Hurricane Center began tracking a tropical wave just south of Hispaniola that was slowly moving west-southwest in a rather unfavorable atmosphere. By September 8, the system encountered a area of extremely warm 85-90+°F waters and low to non-existent wind shear, the NHC, accounting for this change, upped the chances of it becoming a tropical depression in the next 48 hours from 50% to 90%.

By shortly before noon on September 10, reconnaissance aircraft had officially noted the development of Tropical Depression Twelve, the system was unusually large, and the status of the system was heavily disputed over September 10, as thunderstorms were very broadly following a area of rotation and it appeared to share more in common with a subtropical system. The NHC initiated advisories on the system at 1 pm EDT as Potential Tropical Cyclone Twelve.

At this point in time, just 110-120 hours before peaking, the storm had winds of 25 mph, and only HWRF suggested anything over 70 mph, suggesting a 85 mph system at landfall in The Yucatan (original models showed a ridge towards the north pulling soon to be Karen northward).

By sunrise on September 11, the storm had winds of 35 mph and was strengthening. By this point most models showed a 70-80 mph system at landfall, with HWRF suggesting a 105 mph storm at landfall now in Honduras.

At noon on September 11, the system was named Tropical Storm Karen as recon found winds of 48 mph at the center with gusts of 57 mph. From there, the storm entered a extremely favorable environment with water temperatures of as high as 96°F and no wind shear overnight on September 11, this allowed it to rapidly intensify into a strong Category 1 hurricane by the morning of September 12, exceeding most expectations with winds of 90 mph and no signs of slowing down.

HWRF at this point suggested a landfall with winds of 135 mph in Honduras, and most other models suggested a peak of 110-120 mph, thus warranting the NHC to add a Category 2 landfall forecast.

The storm slowed down after sunset on September 12 in the favorable environment, continuing to gradually intensify, becoming a Category 2 hurricane by midnight with winds of 100 mph and gusts of 125 mph.

On the morning of September 13, the first hurricane watches were posted for parts of Honduras and tropical storm watches for parts of Belize (and Guatemala), with the Government of Belize issuing a flood and landslide watch for the entire country that morning. The storm continued to intensify into a Category 3 major hurricane by noon on September 13, now exceeding the NHC forecast, with HWRF now predicting a 150 mph storm at it's peak, and most other models showing a 125-130 mph storm.

The storm slowed down on intensification on September 13 and eventually intensification stopped all together, the NHC forecast the storm gradually weakening from there, making landfall as a Category 1 or 2 in Honduras.

The Government of Honduras thus let down their guard on Karen, which would become a large mistake.

By the morning of September 14, the first outer squalls had produced landslides in Honduras, Guatemala and Belize, with some squalls even reaching The Yucatan. The first death of Karen occurred just after noon, with a landslide crushing a house. Hurricane Karen underwent explosive development just after noon as well, rapidly intensifying into a Category 4 major hurricane as it approached the coast of Honduras.

HWRF and several other models now showed a storm with winds of 165-170 mph at landfall, or a low-end Category 5 hurricane, with the model consensus now showing a mid to high-end Category 4 hurricane at landfall.

The storm reached it's minimum pressure of 927 mbar during the night of September 14, before it increased slightly to 929 mbar by the morning of September 15, which made many, including the NHC, think it was very slowly weakening.

However, the storm's pressure dropped once again to 927 mbar just before landfall, and a recon flight found winds of 154 mph and gusts of 197 mph on the ground shortly before landfall, and this was 18 miles from the center of the storm. Within minutes of landfall, recon found at the center of the storm, winds of 159 mph and gusts of as high as 205 mph, or low-end Category 5.

The NHC responded by upgrading the storm to a 160 mph Category 5 major hurricane at noon as it made a historic and deadly landfall in Honduras.

The storm moved inland, not using much strength, still being in a area where wind shear was only about 3-5 knots.

However, as it moved into the center of Honduras, it interacted with the high elevations of Central America, as well as wind shear of 30-40 knots, causing widespread mudslides and catastrophic flooding, with as much as 16,000 deaths occurring in the department of Yoro alone.

The NHC issued their final advisory on the storm on September 17 as it moved into El Salvador.

Hurricane Kiko (East Pacific)
On September 14, the NHC began monitoring the possibility of Karen, or at-least it's remnants, moving into the Eastern Pacific and regenerating. They began tracking it as Invest 90E (although called by many the Remnants of Karen) on September 18 as it moved southwest of El Salvador.

It entered a moderately favorable environment, with temperatures of 75-85°F and wind shear of roughly 5-10 knots. It pulled northwestward on September 19 off the coast of Mexico into a more favorable environment.

Convection greatly increased on the storm overnight on September 19, and on the morning of September 20 the Remnants of Karen regenerated into Tropical Depression Fifteen in the EPAC. It was named Tropical Storm Kiko that afternoon, and the first advisory's headline was "THE REMNANTS OF CATASTROPHIC AND DEADLY CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE KAREN REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.".

Over the next day, the storm pulled northwest, and intensified into a Category 1 hurricane on September 21. It continued to slowly intensify, becoming a Category 2 hurricane late on September 21.

By September 22, Karen-Kiko attained it's second peak (in the waves history), and Kiko's peak with winds of 115 mph, a minimal Category 3 major hurricane. Kiko, unlike it's predecessor, was very small, with tropical storm force winds only extending roughly 90-110 miles from the center, hurricane force winds roughly 40-60 miles from the center and major hurricane force winds only about 5-10 miles from the center.

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