User blog:Bobnekaro/So, the Atlantic is dead...

By Bob Nekaro, BNWC Chief Meteorologist

Welcome to the BNWC tropical weather blog! I will release blogs during the Atlantic hurricane season, and I am excited to start doing this.

Well, as I mentioned in my title...the Atlantic is dead. 95L now has a "near 0 percent" chance of developing into a tropical cyclone, according to the NHC. It looks like the Atlantic will, at least, be dead for the next week, and maybe even for the next two weeks or longer. Today I will discuss the future of the Atlantic basin, what we will likely see during the month of July.

Will 2016 be more active than 2005?
It has been discussed in recent weeks that 2016 may be a hyperactive season due to the fact that we have already had 4 named storms. I simply do not expect 2016 to be a hyperactive season that rivals 2005, mainly due to the fact that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are only slightly above average, not well above average like they were in 2005. However, I do think an above average season is likely due to the favorable conditions expected in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. These storms put land areas at an increased risk of landfalls this season. The BNWC's prediction remains at 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes - a forecast update will be released on August 1.

July's Expected Conditions
July is not expected to be dead in the Atlantic, but is not expected to be hyperactive either. It is likely that 1-2 storms will develop, but it is not expected to have 5 storms like the 2005 season did. An MJO event is expected to reach the Atlantic during the second week of the month. This will first enter the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, before progressing through the western Atlantic and later the eastern Atlantic.

Because of the fact that Atlantic SSTs in the Main Development Region are only slightly above average, and the Saharan Air Layer remains thick at this time, it seems unlikely that any storms will develop in this region during the next month. However, a possible -NAO pattern (which warms the Atlantic MDR and weakens the Azores high, resulting in slower trade winds) and decreasing pressures late in the month of July may allow for some development.

August and later
By August, conditions are expected to be overall quite favorable for Atlantic development. Watch out for the first major during this month...and it could be a westward tracking one that impacts land late in its lifetime.

Earl
The next name for the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season is Earl. If it develops before July 11th, it will break Emily of the 2005 season's record for the earliest fifth named storm on record in the Atlantic. Feel free to discuss your predictions for Earl below in the comments: when you think it will form, where it will form, and how strong you think it will be.