2019 Sandantic hurricane season

The 2019 Sandantic hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation, in which tropical cyclones form in the Sandantic Ocean. It is the first Sandantic hurricane season on record, with the SHMC taking control of the basin. This season runs from May 1 to December 1. The first storm, Alyssa, formed on May 10.

Seasonal forecasts
Feel free to add in your predictions if you want :) On March 1, 2019, the SHMC made their predictions ahead of the season, calling for 20 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. On May 3, 2019, however, the SHMC made another prediction for this season calling for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. On May 13, 2019, the HLMA released their predictions, calling for 14-18 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.

Outlooks and Advisories


Tropical Weather Outlook Sandy Hurricane and Monsoon Center 800 PM MST Sun Sep 8, 2019

For the Sandantic Ocean, including the Gulf of Manana: The Sandy Hurricane and Monsoon Center is currently issuing advisories on Hurricane Jackie, located east of Shallmaar, and Tropical Depression 12S, located in the open Sandantic.

1. A low pressure area (95S) has first appeared south of Shallmaar, going northwest at roughly 8 mph (12 km/h). The disturbance has run into some strong wind shear and is not expected to develop. Development, if any, has to be in the next few days before colder waters and even more strong wind shear prevents the storm from living.
 * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
 * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. A tropical wave has recently emerged from De Calope Republic, going west-northwest at roughly 7 mph (11 km/h). Some gradual development will be possible over into the next week as it is currently in warm waters of about 86 F (30 C) and low to moderate wind shear.
 * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
 * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. A non-tropical low has recently appeared west-southwest of Neaout, going northwest at roughly 5 mph (8 km/h). Some gradual development will be possible over the next week as it is currently in slightly warm waters of about 79 F (26 C) and moderate wind shear. ~Forecaster Sandy
 * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
 * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Tropical Storm Alyssa
A tropical low formed in the open Sandantic on May 1, heading towards the Isle of Etri. It rapidly organized and developed into a tropical depression on May 10. It strengthened into a tropical storm on May 11, earning the name Alyssa. Then, it reached its peak intensity the next day, with winds up to 50 mph (85 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 996 mbar. At the same time, it made landfall in the Isle of Etri, 50 mi (80 km) west of the city of Thamenew. It then weakened back into a tropical depression on May 13 due to cooler waters. On the next day, Alyssa transitioned into a extratropical cyclone.

2 deaths from the Isle of Etri have been reported after the storm had struck. The total damage in the country is reported to be about $850 thousand (USD).

TCR update:

45 mph -> 50 mph

997 mbar -> 996 mbar

Duration unchanged; 1 more TS dot added to track.

Hurricane Darcey
A tropical wave was first noted over De Caloupe Republic in early-July, moving rapidly toward the ocean. The SHMC then gave it a low chance of forming for the next few days. It gradually organized, it’s well-organized convection appearing on the storm. The SHMC gave it a high chance of forming on July 11. An Air Force Reconnaissance Flight reported gale-force winds more than halfway around the center of the system and it had defined a center of circulation, therefore the system was designated as 04S. The tropical depression eventually intensified into a TS on July 12, earning the name Darcey. Two days later, it intensified into a hurricane, the second one of the season. The hurricane soon slowed down intensification, due to some dry air interacting with the storm. That didn’t stop it from intensifying into a major hurricane on July 17, the first one of the season. Darcey continued to slow down its intensification even more, taking about 66 hours for it to become a Category 4 hurricane on July 20. It reached its peak intensity early the next day, with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph (220 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 953 mbar. Darcey then encountered an eyewall replacement cycle, weakening back to a Category 3 hurricane on July 22. Unfortunately for the storm, it never restrengthened after its peak due to increasing wind shear, and weakened below major hurricane status on July 23. While approaching the country of Shallmaar, it weakened to a tropical storm on July 25 before making landfall a few hours later. It slowly abated inland, weakening to a tropical depression early on July 26 before degenerating to a remnant low later that day.

Darcey inflicted about $295 million (USD) and caused 7 deaths from Shallmaar alone.

Storm names
The following list of names are given to tropical cyclones during 2019. Those names are submitted by the Sandy Hurricane and Monsoon Center and it goes in girl-girl-boy order. If the list is exhausted, then the Greeks will be used.