2018 Atlantic usercane season

If you're new to the usercane concept, check this blog if you want to see how usercanes work: How Usercanes Actually Work.

The 2018 Atlantic usercane season is an ongoing event in usercane formation. It is the ninth season of usercane formation, and the third season of operational usercane tracking. Storms forming between January 1, 2018 and December 31, 2018, will be a part of this season. The 2018 season featured the highest number of userpressions developing in the month of January, February, and March. The season's first userpression, which later became Tropical Userstorm Avdis, developed on January 3, and became the earliest tropical userpression ever to develop in the Atlantic basin, beating the previous record set by Tropical Depression Four (HurricaneHistory) in the 2016 season.

The season's strongest storm is Usercane Roy, which became the season's first usercane on May 13. The 2018 season has thus far been a very weak season, with only one storm reaching usercane status and another one (Lucarius) reaching severe tropical userstorm status. For the first time since 2015, two tropical userstorms – Harris and Cyclophoon – formed in the month of March. Six userpressions formed in the aforementioned month – the greatest number of userpressions in the month since 2015, of which three became userstorms, tying it with the 2015 season in terms of named userstorms.

Seasonal forecasts
Before and during the season, several agencies release forecasts regarding usercane activity.

Pre-season outlooks
On December 3, the Cooper Meteorological Center released their forecast for the 2018 season, calling for an above average season in terms of named storms, but a below average season in terms of usercanes and major usercanes. The same day, the FMC released their 2018 forecast, predicting 26-32 named storms, 3-9 usercanes, and 1-6 major usercanes. On December 4, 2017, the BNWC released their 2018 forecast on December 4, predicting 30-40 named storms, 3-7 usercanes, and 1-4 major usercanes, The same day, the GIHC released their 2018 forecast, predicting 35 named storms, 6 usercanes, and 2 major usercanes. Two days later, the HMA released their first forecast for the season, predicting 33-45 named storms, 4 usercanes, and 1 major usercanes. They also said that the number of userstorms was to explode sometime after late August.

On December 7, the Nova International Meteorological Center released their forecast for the 2018 season, predicting 27-40 named storms, 2-3 usercanes, and 2 major usercanes.On December 24, the JCSC predicted a below average season, with 20-25 named storms, 3-5 usercanes, and 2-3 major usercanes, but also added that there was a 30% chance of a hyperactive season similar to 2017. On December 24, the CMC revised their predictions for the season, increasing the number of usercanes and major usercanes, but retaining the same number of storms. On the same day, the Prism Weather Center released their first forecast for the season, predicting 23-36 named storms, 4-11 usercanes and 1-7 major usercanes. On December 31, one hour before the season starts, the CSHC released their prediction for the season, predicting 28 named storms, 4 usercanes, and 2 major usercanes.

Mid-season outlooks
On January 1st, the BNMA released their prediction, predicting a similar season to 2017, with 27-30 named storms, 4-7 usercanes and 1-3 major usercanes. the HMA released their revised prediction on January 1, 2018, predicting 36 named storms, 7 usercanes and 4 major usercanes. After a very active January, the JCSC released their revised prediction, predicting a season more like 2017, with 30-40 named storms, 3-5 usercanes, and 2 major usercanes. On January 26, BMA released their first forecast for the season, predicting 30-40 named storms, 6 usercanes and 3 major usercanes, predicting it will be a season somewhat alike to 2017. On February 12, the CMC revised their predictions on the number of named userstorms developing after a record-breaking January, with no change in the number of usercanes and major usercanes. The CMC then lowered the number of usercanes and major usercanes in their forecast to 3 and 1, respectively, after the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation continued to weaken. They also set a more concrete range on the number of named userstorms in their updated prediction. On the same day, the BMA issued their new forecasts for the season, predicting 35-47 named storms. The BMA also lowered the number of usercanes from 6 to 4, and revising the number of major usercanes from 3 to just 1. On April 2, the Meteorological Center for Hurricanes and Winter Storms (MCHWS) released their forecast for the season, predicting above-average activity, with 36-42 named storms, 4-6 usercanes, and 2-4 major usercanes. On April 7, the BMA released their 3rd forecast for the season, predicting 32-44 named storms, 3 usercanes and 1 major usercane. On April 16, the Roy Meteorological Agency issued its first forecast for the season, predicting 32-42 named storms, 2-8 hurricanes, and 0-3 major hurricanes. On April 20, the Cube Global Forecast Center released its first forecast, calling for 30-45 named storms, 1-7 usercanes, and 0-3 major usercanes. On April 22, the Lucarius Hurricane Center released its first forecast for the season, predicting 31-37 named storms, 2-7 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes. That same day, the Hypothetical Hurricane Center issued its first forecast for the season, predicting 37-42 named storms, 3-6 usercanes, and 0-2 major usercanes. On April 29, the Prism Weather Center issued its second forecast for the season, significantly increasing the amount of predicted userstorms, while decreasing the amount of both usercanes and major usercanes. On May 1, 2018, the Pan-European Hurricane Centre released their first outlook for the season, calling for 57-65 named storms, 0-5 hurricanes, and 0-2 major hurricanes. On May 7, the Brick National Meteorological Agency issued its second forecast of the season, calling for 40-55 named storms, 2-5 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes. On May 28, the Olo72 Storm Monitoring Center released their forecast, predicting a total of 35-44 named storms, 2-5 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes. On June 5, the Akio Hypothetical Hurricane Center issued their first forecast, calling for a total of 60-70 named storms, 4-6 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes. On June 23, the LHC revised their forecast, this time predicting a total of 40-45 named storms, 3-5 hurricanes, and 0-2 major hurricanes.

Tropical Userstorm Avdis
On January 3, a tropical userwave emerged off the coast of Africa. The wave quickly organized, strengthening into a tropical userpression on the same day, the first one of the season. Forming on January 3, it became the earliest first depression of any usercane season on record, breaking the previous record set by Tropical Depression Four in 2016. The userpression reached tropical userstorm status the next day, becoming the earliest named system to reach tropical userstorm status on record, breaking the previous record set by Tropical Userstorm Destiny of 2016 (which was later declassified). Shortly after reaching peak intensity, Avdis began to slowly weaken, and on January 27 the storm degenerated to a tropical userwave. On February 1, the remnants of Avdis began to show signs of regeneration, and the next day the remnants briefly regenerated into a tropical userpression. The regenerated system finally dissipated days later.

Tropical Userpression Two (HurricaneRafael)
On December 11, 2017, a weak tropical userwave exited the coast of Africa. This wave lingered just off the coast of Africa for several days until it began a slow northwestward track. The wave remained weak and disorganized until January 8, when it was designated as Tropical Userpression Two. The nascent userpression struggled with a Saharan air mass and failed to strengthen significantly. On January 24, the depression was completely devoid of convection, and the NUC discontinued advisories as the system opened up into a tropical userwave.

Tropical Userstorm Blue (Bluecaner)
Another tropical userwave left the coast of Africa on December 18, 2017. The wave tracked swiftly westward across the tropical Atlantic and showed no signs of development until January 11, when the wave developed into a tropical userpression while located 300 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. The system continued to steadily intensify, and on January 18 was designated as Tropical Userstorm Blue. Strengthening to a peak intensity with sustained winds of 50 mph (85 km/h), Blue continued to track northwestward and began to fluctuate in intensity from a tropical userstorm to a tropical userpression. By April 3, Blue had weakened significantly and quickly began to lose convection. On April 14, it was declared a remnant low while located 650 miles south of Newfoundland. The remnants of Blue soon began to show signs of reorganization, however, and by April 19 they had redeveloped into a tropical userpression, soon regaining tropical userstorm strength.

Tropical Userstorm Morgan (TheRealHurricaneTrackerSps123)
On January 16, 2017, the NUC began monitoring an area of low pressure that was expected to detach from a stalled cold front. However, the low pressure area stalled over the Central Atlantic. Unusually, the low failed to strengthen and instead weakened rapidly. On January 16, another area of low pressure was identified over the Central Atlantic, and later assessed to have formed from the remnants of the June low, which was cycled through steering currents across the Atlantic. On January 16, the low was classified as Tropical Userpression Four. Four days later, it strengthened into Tropical Userstorm Morgan and reached its peak intensity. Shortly thereafter, Morgan began to weaken as it accelerated northeast, and on February 3 the storm was absorbed by a cold front south of the Azores.

Tropical Userstorm Brickkks
On January 20, the NUC began monitoring an area of low pressure that developed near roughly 100 miles off the coast of North Carolina. The low quickly attained tropical characteristics, and on the same day it was classified as Tropical Userpression Five. The userpression remained steady in intensity for a few days until January 26, when it strengthened into Tropical Userstorm Brickks. After reaching peak winds of 50 mph (85 km/h), Brickkks began to slowly weaken as it accelerated northeast. On April 7, Brickkks became extratropical as it merged with a frontal system south of Nova Scotia.

Tropical Userstorm Mobile (No.1 Mobile)
On January 20, the NUC began monitoring an area of low pressure that developed 160 miles north-northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. The low quickly developed into Tropical Userpression Six. The userpression was quick to intensify, and on January 22 the National Usercane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Userstorm Mobile.

Tropical Userstorm Cube (FM Cube)
On January 14, a trough of low pressure formed over the Central Atlantic Ocean. The trough stalled as it drew moisture from a tropical low to the south of the trough. By January 22, the trough began to show signs of significant organization, and on January 24 it was classified as a tropical userpression. On January 27, the userpression strengthened a great degree, and it was upgraded to Tropical Userstorm Cube. After reaching peak winds of 50 mph (85 km/h), Cube began to weaken rather slowly. On July 6, Cube degenerated into a remnant low.

Tropical Userstorm Pstar (Pstar77)
A large tropical userwave exited the coast of Africa on January 23. The wave then split, with the northern portion developing into a tropical userpression early on January 25. The nascent userpression struggled to intensify due to strengthening wind shear, and on February 3, the userpression degenerated to a remnant low as it succumbed to the effects of shear. The remnants drifted northwestward and began to reorganize under favorable conditions. On February 7, the userpression regenerated, and later the same day strengthened into a tropical userstorm, recieving the name Pstar. Under favorable conditions, Pstar gradually strengthened to reach peak winds of 50 mph (85 km/h). However, Pstar unexpectedly began weakening in late March, and by March 30 it was nearly devoid of convection. On April 1, Pstar degenerated into an open wave over the southern Atlantic.

Tropical Userstorm Frosty (Frosty2000)
A tropical userpression formed from a tropical userwave northwest of Cape Verde on February 9. Despite uncertainty in the forecasting of the userpression, with some models expecting it to dissipate quickly, it instead quickly intensified into Tropical Userstorm Frosty. Throughout the following day, Frosty continued to quickly intensify, reaching winds of 50 mph (85 km/h) in less than a day after formation. Afterward, the storm continued to intensify at a fast rate throughout the following week. Eventually, Frosty began to level out in intensity, maintaining winds of 50 mph (85 km/h) as it remained well-organized. By the beginning of April, Frosty had begun to weaken as it turned northward and began to lose convection. On April 20, it was declared a remnant low after lacking deep convection for several days.

Tropical Userstorm Irma (Ef5tornadofan77)
A shortwave trough formed over the central Atlantic on January 30. On February 8, the low detached from the front and subsequently began to acquire tropical characteristics. On February 10, the NUC classified the low as Tropical Userpression Ten. On February 14, due to low wind shear and abnormally high sea surface temperatures, the userpression strengthened into a tropical userstorm. Strong wind shear prevented further development, and Irma weakened to a tropical userpression on February 23. On March 3, the weakening userpression degenerated to a non-tropical remnant low.

Tropical Userpression Eleven (Jwbaker15)
A weak tropical userwave exited the west coast of Africa on December 11, 2017. The wave lingered just off the coast for several weeks until it began a slow northwestward track. On February 18, the userwave finally intensified into a tropical userpression. The userpression almost immediately began weakening, and by March 3 it had degenerated to an open wave.

Tropical Userstorm Aidan (Aidan1493)
On February 16, a tropical userwave emerged off the coast of Africa. Tracking westward, the wave began to organize under a favorable environment. On February 20, the NUC designated the system as Tropical Userpression Twelve. The following day, the userpression rapidly strengthened into a tropical userstorm, receiving the name Aidan. The newly-formed storm strengthened slightly to winds of 45 mph (75 km/h) as it battled moderate wind shear. Thereafter, Aidan became increasingly disorganized, weakening to a tropical userpression on March 5. On March 12, Aidan succumbed to the effects of shear and degenerated into a remnant low. Nearly two weeks later, the remnants of Aidan began to develop deep convection, and the NUC noted that regeneration was possible. On March 30, the remnants regenerated into a tropical userpression over the Central Atlantic. Aidan then regained tropical storm status two days later.

Usercane Roy (Roy25)
The interaction between a tropical userwave and an upper-level low spawned a tropical userpression on 03:00 UTC on February 25. The userpression struggled with moderate wind shear for weeks until it entered a more favorable enviornment, where it strengthened into Tropical Userstorm Roy. Although initially disorganized, wind shear weakened throughout the following weeks, allowing Roy to become better organized and intensify. Roy intensified into the season's first usercane on May 13. Roy further strengthened into a Category 2 usercane early on July 13.

Tropical Userstorm Harris (Harris720)
Early on March 10, the NUC began monitoring a non-tropical area of low pressure that developed over the central Atlantic. Located over favorable conditions, the low rapidly organized, and on the same day, the NUC upgraded the low-pressure area to a tropical userstorm, due to continuously improving satellite appearance and the formation of a closed circulation. Harris rapidly strengthened, reaching winds of 50 mph (85 km/h) in less than 2 hours after formation. On March 30, Harris abruptly stopped strengthening and became disorganized, possibly due to outflow from the nearby Usercane Hype. After a few days, Harris resumed its strengthening trend and continued to grow in size. On April 19, Harris weakened abruptly before being completely absorbed by the nearby Usercane Hype.

Tropical Userstorm Cyclophoon (Cyclophoon)
Mid-day on March 11, the NUC began monitoring a tropical userwave that emerged off the coast of Africa. Unexpectedly, the wave quickly organized and developed deep convection, leading to the classification of a tropical userpression later that day. At 20:00 UTC, the userpression strengthened into Tropical Userstorm Cyclophoon. However, dry air entered the system just days after formation, causing it to quickly weaken. On March 19, Cyclophoon weakened to a tropical userpression as it became increasingly disorganized, and by March 26 it lacked a closed circulation and was declared an open wave.

Tropical Userstorm Roger (Rogerzwang)
A disorganized tropical userwave left the coast of Africa on February 19. It remained disorganized as it tracked west-northwestward until March 10, when it rapidly organized and became a tropical userpression. The userpression strengthened slowly uner favorable conditions, and by March 26 it had strengthened into a tropical userstorm and was named Roger. Strengthening slightly to reach peak winds of 45 mph (75 km/h), Roger quickly began weakening, and it had weakened to a tropical depression by April 10. On April 17, it degenerated into an open wave while east of the Leeward Islands.

Tropical Userpression Seventeen (AmazinglyOP)
A trough of low pressure formed over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean on February 11. Due to strong wind shear, the trough remained weak. On March 5, the trough began to acquire tropical characteristics, and it strengthened into a tropical depression 12 days later. The NUC did not forecast strengthening of the system due to strengthening wind shear and the storm's location near the outflow of Usercane Roussil. The userpression gradually weakened throughout the following weeks, and on April 2 the depression dissipated while located south of the Azores.

Tropical Userpression Eighteen (Herobrine45)
A tropical userwave left the coast of Africa on March 26. Citing favorable conditions, the NUC marked the userwave as a potential contender for tropical cyclogenesis. On March 30, the wave gained sufficient convection to be classified as a tropical userpression. The userpression tracked westward across the tropical Atlantic with little fanfare, eventually decaying into an open wave on April 19.

Tropical Userstorm Tammy (MajorHurricaneTammy)
Another tropical userwave exited the coast of Africa on March 31. Unexpectedly, the wave rapidly organized and by 15:00 UTC it had organized into a tropical userpression. Due to a Saharan Air Layer, the userpression failed to strengthen initially. Despite an unfavorable environment, the userpression strengthened into Tropical Userstorm Tammy. Limited by a dry and stable environment, Tammy strengthened little, and quickly began weakening. By April 22, it lacked a closed circulation, and the NUC declared it an open wave.

Tropical Userstorm Delcore-Steet (Ryan Delcore/Freddie1682)
On April 8, a tropical wave was marked for possible development by the NUC, while it was still located over Africa. Unusually, the wave rapidly organized, and a tropical userpression formed over Senegal at 07:00 UTC. Hours later, the userpression strengthened into Tropical Userstorm Ryan. However, that turned out to be an error and was renamed Delcore. At that time, the storm was located just two miles off the coast of Senegal, marking the second easternmost formation of a tropical userstorm on record, behind only Matthew of 2016. Delcore continued to strengthen, reaching winds of 50 mph (85 km/h) just a few hours after formation. Similar to many previous storms, Delcore rapidly weakened after intensifying at a near-record pace, and it was downgraded to a tropical userpression on April 17. However, convection continued to repeatedly flare up near the center of the system, and it restrengthened into a tropical userstorm nearly a month later.

Tropical Userstorm Sebastian (Sebastianviano12)
A tropical userwave moved off the west coast of Africa on April 12. It rapidly organized amidst a favorable enviornment and became a tropical userpression the following day. Continued organization occured, and early on April 15 the userpression strengthened into Tropical Userstorm Sebastian. Over the next several weeks, Sebastian continued strengthening and growing in size.

Tropical Userstorm MC (CycloneMC)
A tropical userwave left the coast of Africa on March 28 and stalled near Cape Verde. The disorganized wave then split, with the northern portion drifting northwestward. Unexpectedly, the wave rapidly organized, and was immediately designated as Tropical Userstorm MC on April 20. MC continued maintained its intensity over the following weeks, before it began intensifying again in late May.

Severe Tropical Userstorm Lucarius (KingLucarius)
On April 21, a tropical userpression formed from a tropical disturbance near Cape Verde. The userpression quickly organized, becoming Tropical Storm Lucarius within 12 hours. Lucarius continued quickly strengthening during much of May. On May 30, Lucarius became the second userstorm to exceed tropical userstorm intensity in the season and becoming a severe tropical userstorm.

Tropical Userstorm Scuti (UYScuti)
A non-tropical area of low pressure developed into a tropical userpression on April 28. On May 11, after many days of not strengthening, the depression entered favorable conditions, and strengthened into a tropical storm. Shortly after becoming a tropical storm, Scuti encountered strong westerly wind shear, which gradually caused all deep convection within the system to dissipate. On May 25, what remained of the system dissipated while located off the coast of Maryland.

Tropical Userstorm Misaki-Bubbz (MisakiShan/Bubbz3388)
A non-tropical area of low pressure located in the Caribbean Sea developed into a tropical userpression on May 6. The userpression developed into a tropical userstorm the same day, receiving the name Misaki. Strengthening only slightly, the NUC changed Misaki's name to Bubbz a few days after the storm was classified. Bubbz continued weakening, and weakened to a tropical depression on May 17.

Tropical Userstorm Nickcoro
A non-tropical area of low pressure developed into a tropical userpression on May 9. On May 14, the userpression strengthened into a tropical userstorm and was named Nickcoro.

Tropical Userstorm Kat (Katagma)
An area of low pressure associated with an upper-level trough formed over the Caribbean Sea on May 24. The low gradually organized as it meandered over the western Caribbean Sea. Although it still contained multiple low-level circulations, the overall structure of the system had improved enough to be classified as a tropical userpression on May 26. On June 2, it was classified as Tropical Userstorm Kat.

Tropical Userstorm Nahshon (Nahshon7)
A tropical userwave moved off the coast of Africa on February 16. Moving northwestward into the subtropics, the wave transitioned to a trough of low pressure and became stationary. On June 1, it developed into a tropical userpression and strengthened into a tropical userstorm a day later.

Tropical Userstorm Giedrius (GiedriusforCat5)
A tropical userwave developed into a tropical userpression on June 8. The userpression later strengthened into Tropical Userstorm Giedrius later the same day.

Other systems
A tropical userpression formed from a trough of low pressure west of Cape Verde on January 25. Operationally, the userpression was classified as Tropical Userpression Nine, and then Tropical Userstorm Moonlight. However, the storm was later assessed to have been a regeneration of Tropical Userstorm Fester.

Season effects
This is a table of all the storms that have formed in the 2018 Atlantic usercane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s), denoted in parentheses, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in 2018 USD.