2023 Atlantic hurricane season (Sutowe12's version)

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NOTE 3: THIS SEASON IS A USER PREDICTION TO THE 2023 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

"This is the beginning of a new revolution." - Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State University

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was the most destructive and active season on record. In the year of 2023, the season produced 30 named tropical or subtropical storms, 20 hurricanes and 8 major hurricanes, mainly from the cause of a late forming La Niña just 2 months prior to the start of the season. It broke several records, including most active season (in terms of accumulated cylone energy), most hurricanes, major hurricanes and named storms in a single season, and abnormal formations. As usual, an Atlantic hurricane season offically begins on June 1 and continues till November 30. However, this season began on May 2, 2023, producing an unnamed subtropical storm, (identifed as a storm during re-analysis in 2024), and ending late on December 19, 2023 with the dissipation of Subtropcial Storm Theta. The season battled through with a record-breaking 8 major hurricanes, 4 of which peaking at Category 5 hurricanes on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale Out of the four, Hurricane Iron was the largest, strongest, and longest lived hurricane of the year, that topped off the charts at 200 mph (325 km/h), 867 mbar (hPa), and lived for 21.5 days.

Out of any season since records began in 1851, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is by far the most significant. The National Hurricane Center had stated that the amount of activity in the season had a striking occurrence from the result of a large shift of climate change. As a result of a low hurricane season the year before, the season had called for large ranges of storms and hurricanes, calculating 17-23 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 2-6 major hurricanes in the pre- season outlooks. However, after the dissipation of Hurricane Deena, climatologists began monitoring a large shift in warmer sea surface temperatures and lesser wind shear. Furthermore, a strong, late forming La Niña took over its complete form in mid-August, (began its formation in March), meaning that the effects of La Niña were going to be intense and considerable.

There were many notable storms during the year, 3 in particular. First was Hurricane Chester, a long-lived Category 5 hurricane that killed 82 people throughout Haiti and left behind $4,200 billion (2023 USD) in damages and thousands without homes as a result of flooding. Second was Hurricane Iron, a super instense hurricane that broke records worldwide. It total, the storm produced more than $

Seasonal forecasts
In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Hurricane and Climate Prediction Center's, Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray and their associates at Colorado State University (CSU), Tropical Storm Risk, and the United Kingdom's Met Office. The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. As stated by NOAA and CSU, an average Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contains roughly 12 tropical storms, six hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index of 66-103 units. NOAA typically categorizes a season as either above-average, average, of below-average based on the cumulative ACE Index; however, the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season is considered occasionally as well.

Pre- season forecasts
On December 7, 2022, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a public consortium consisting of experts on insurance, risk management, and seasonal climate forecasting at University College London, issued an extended-ranged forecast of a hyperactive (above-average) hurricane season.

May-June
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season offically began on June 1, however during post-anaylsis, the National Hurricane Center reissued that an area of disturbed weather had formed into a subtropical storm on May 2. To add on, the unnamed storm became the earliest storm since Tropical Storm Alberto of 2012, and the only storm to form until July 15. The reason to its early formation was from warm ocean currents that created extraordinary thunderstorm activity off Eastern United States for more than 3 weeks prior to the storms formation.

The month of June was surprisingly quiet with no storms. The reason to this was an after effect of El Niño that began its slow transition into La Niña.

July
After a long period of low activity in June, a tropical depression forms in the Caribbean Sea on July 15. From there, two additional depressions would form in the two weeks, following. Hurricane Alec and Tropical Storm Bessie were two of the three systems in July that caused the most damage. Alec struck Nicaragua as a Category 1 hurricane, producing 6 mudslides that effected 11 communities and killed 7. Bessie was a weak tropical storm that brought damaging winds and torrential rains to the Bahamas and western Florida. 2 cruise ships and 7 industrial fishing boats had to be stopped and stranded for two days until the storm had passed. One member of a fishing boat died, while a man in West Palm Beach drowned from high surf. 1.5 million dollars added up in damages and 8 people were killed during this time. Tropical Depression Three formed on late July 31 and would soon become Hurricane Chester in the next week coming.

2023 Atlantic Canada subtropical storm
An upper level trough and a decaying cold front formed a few hundred miles northwest of Bermuda on May 1. The system moved quickly south producing tropical storm force winds near 45 mph and a low pressure area. Later the next day at 1800 UTC, the system became a subtropical storm with winds near 50 mph. The unnamed storm started to gain speed and strength, as it began moving northeastward to Nova Scotia. Higher levels of upper level winds made the storm instensify, with peak winds at 65 mph on May 3. On May 4, a drop in thunderstorms and loss of convection made the system weaken slightly before its impact on Nova Scotia. Soon afterwards on late May 4 to May 5, the system made impact to the Maritime provinces. An estimated 4.2 inches (106.68 mm) of rainfall was recorded in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia. Several power outages occurred across Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island, 4 people died from major flooding in Cape Breton Island, and 1 critically injured when a tree fell on top of its car. Luckily, only C$81,000 ($75,800 USD 2014) were reported in damages. The storm unsuccessfully maintained its strength and dramatic loss of wind shear made the system post tropical on May 5 at 0600 UTC. It was finally absorbed by a larger low pressure system later on May 5.

Hurricane Alec
A tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa on July 8 and began heading west. On July 15, NHC began monitoring the system, stating that convection and environmental conditions are continuing to make the wave favorable for additional development. On July 17 at 0000 UTC, the system formed into Tropical Depression One. Many hours later, dry air and wind shear from the Saharan Air Layer decreased, upgrading the system to Tropical Storm Alec.

Hurricane Deena
Originated from a tropical wave on the heels on Hurricane Chester. Development was initially inhibited by their proximity; however, Deena turned northwestward through a weakness in a ridge that Chester missed, allowed it to develop.

Tropical Storm Edie
A fast moving trough spawned a non-tropical area of low pressure of the coast of New Orleans, Louisiana on August 13. The system moved slightly southward, showing more organization and enhancement in thunderstorms. Early the next morning, the system experienced a closed cirrculation, then redeeming the name, Tropical Depression Five.

Hurricane Grant
A tropical wave off the Cape Verde Islands began its slow formation on late August 20. Later during the week, NHC began issuing advisories for a small tropical depression 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The disturbance was upgraded to Tropical Storm Grant on August 24. The system began gathering more steam and strength, however storm had later started to experience disorganization, and the tropical storm had split into two separate storms. This resulting in Grant to downgrade to a depression. However, wind shear had decreased and Grant intensified back into a tropical storm one and half days later. The amount of wind shear was brought down through Grant's path and the storm intensified into a Category 1 hurricane for 8 hours. Grant would eventually become a Category 2 hurricane and make landfall to Turks and Caicos. Dramatic storm surge and strong winds were brought to areas surrounding Grant's path. However, in the early hours of August 29th, Hurricane Grant had made landfall to Florida as a Category 1 hurricane. The storm would continue to move inland as a tropical storm and bring localized flooding to the southwestern states, Georgia and South Carolina in particular. Grant would loose strength and upper level winds brought the system to a depression over Kentucky. The system became post-tropical and totally dissipated in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

Hurricane Mike
As the remnants of Hurricane Kenny continued northeastward to the British Isles, a frontal low began to develop on September 12. The low was soon encountered by the remnants of Hurricane Iron as Iron began regenerating into a subtropical cyclone, west-southwest of the Azores. This activity began to give the developing system favorable conditions for further development. On September 14, NHC started placing advisories for Subtropical Depression Thirteen, that would soon generate into a storm by the next morning. On September 15, the depression generated into a subtropical storm, giving it the name "Mike". However, later that night, Mike began to experience disorganization in its center, there after making the system a tropical storm.

Hurricane Tyrone
Hurricane Tyrone (2023)

A low pressure system forms in the Atlantic Ocean and becomes a tropical depression on October 3. It contines to strengthen making no threat to land.

Great Britain Wind Storm (Weston)
In the morning hours of October 15, NHC began observing an extremely rare frontal low forming of the coast of France, in the Bay of Biscay. Later in the day, advisories were soon issued for a very small depression that would soon make minor impact on the British Isles. This began making new records for highest latitude for a storm to form on.

Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven
Degenerated into a remnant low before entering the Gulf of Mexico. The remnants later split into trough that spawned a new area of low pressure which moved rapidly northeast and developed into a nor'easter.

Subtropical Depression Twenty-Eight
Absorbed into the nor'easter that developed from the trough associated with Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven

Hurricane Eta
The remnants of Eta continued northeast toward Mid US and Eastern Canada bringing significant rain and snowfall to many areas.

Subtropical Storm Theta
A far north upper-level low and a surface low pressure system formed on December 9 as a subtropical cyclone with sustained winds of 70 mph, receiving the name Theta. The system was very rare, as it is the only system to form as a high-end tropical or subtropical cyclone at a high latitude and it was also a very late forming system, latest since Tropical Storm Zeta of 2005. The system moved east away from the Maritime province at a fast moving pace. Theta remained limited from changing wind speeds, causing high storm surge in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Only one person was injured during this time on December 10. Record breaking snowfall and rainfall amounts were archived throughout December 9-12. At least 500 mm of rain was recorded in St. John's, Newfoundland, and 2.6 m of snow fell in areas, such as Sydney, Nova Scotia, surrounding Theta's starting path. On December 11, Theta began to move northward, and started to loose steam. On December 13, the system became extratropical and still remained on its journey north. The remnants of Theta were felt throughout southwestern Greenland, Ireland, and The Netherlands. Luckily, no damages or deaths were recorded and the season had finally came to a finishing relief.

Storm names and retirement
The following names were used to name storms that reached tropical or subtropical storm intensity in the North Atlantic Ocean during 2023. This list was used for the first time since the original name lists were replaced. This name list had all its names, along with 2 Greek Alphabet names used during the season.

Due to the amount of damages, deaths and/or rare activity caused, the names "Chester", "Iron", "Jemima", "Nina", "Owen", "Sonya", and "Weston" were removed from List 4 of the rotating cyclones lists. The names were replaced with Cameron, Ignatius, Jordon, Namina, Oden, Shannon, and Wilson. However, the names Grant and Nina, were not retired. Despite causing a lot of damage to the Greater Antilles and Central America, the two storms formed in or around the Caribbean Sea, which had a remarkable increase in activity over a 10 year period. This resulting in no retirement.

On the names list below, names in bold represent that the names that were replaced

Hurricanes Beta and Zeta caused a lot of damage, caused some deaths, and formed at a high hurricane strength at a certain time. Unfortuately, they cannot be retired or replaced by another name since they are Greek Alphabet names and there is lack of replacement.

Season effects
This is a table of the storms and their effects in the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. This table includes the storm's names, duration, peak intensity, Areas affected (bold indicates made landfall in that region at least once), damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but are still storm-related. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave or a low. All of the damage figures are in 2023 USD (the listed damage figure is in millions).