User blog:Andrew444/Will Tropical Storm 23W be responsible for what happened in the Java Sea?

Hello, everyone.

So, if you have not heard already, a couple of events have occurred in the past few days.

First, Tropical Storm 23W, otherwise known as Seniang by PAGASA, formed just east of Mindanao last night rather abruptly. As a matter of fact, it consolidated fast enough to become a tropical storm on both the JTWC and PAGASA sides before it made landfall (which occurred at the time this post was written). However, it did not receive a JMA name.

Second, a very unfortunate aviation disaster happened over the Java Sea. If you have not heard already, Indonesia AirAsia Flight 8501 has gone missing en route to Singapore. Here of the situation. The aircraft never landed at the airport, and actually, should never have taken off in the first place. Even though its planned route was modified so it would avoid heavy clouds, an accident still occurred. Most of the victims were Singaporean, with various other nationalities present as well. Moreover, many nations have left their condolences in response to Flight 8501 and are willing to help in the rescue efforts. I, myself, give my prayers to the 170 passengers affected.

My reason for posting this blog has to do with a possible connection I suspect between these two events. When the final radio contact was made between the Flight 8501 and Indonesian air traffic control, the aircraft was transversing a cluster of storms. To give you an idea of this hypothesis, the taken when the plane should have landed in Singapore. As you can probably see, it was entering a region of very heavy thunderstorms, and thus possible it crashed due to heavy turbulence.

The connection, however, can possibly be noted in this JTWC satellite image. If you look over Indonesia, you can see the cluster thunderstorms in which Flight 8501 allegedly disappeared into. In addition, if you look over the Philippines, you can notice how there appears to be some sort of "interaction" between Tropical Storm 23W and the aforementioned system. Even though it is likely the tropical storm did not directly affect the flight's motion due to its position on the other side of the Philippines, I am not yet ruling out the possibility that 23W's circulation caused the thunderstorms to be located where they were.

Moreover, the results look even more gruesome a few days out. The latest JTWC forecast shows 23W passing near the area where Flight 8501 disappeared. For the nations which are currently trying to locate the plane's wreckage, the storm will be a huge strain to those efforts, especially the search zones in the South China Sea.

Furthermore, I would like to provide some background knowledge on aviation incidents and tropical cyclones. This incident is definitely not the first time these two disasters have potentially been connected; it has happened numerous times over the decades. For example, Hurricane Emmy from the 1976 Atlantic hurricane season caused a Venezuelan aircraft carrying a school choir to crash during an emergency landing in the Azores, killing all 68 on board. Additionally, Typhoon Matmo from earlier this year may be linked to the crash of TransAsia Airways Flight 222, which crash landed at Magong Airport in Taiwan a day after the typhoon passed through. Of the 58 passengers on board, only ten survived.

Finally, on a more trivial note, I would like to point out an irony with the next JMA name, Jangmi. The Korean word for rose, it has actually been more associated with the word "monster" IMO. The 2008 incarnation of Jangmi was tied as the strongest WPAC tropical cyclone of the 2000s decade, and brought severe rains to Taiwan. If Tropical Storm 23W achieves gale-force winds on the JMA side, it will be named Jangmi, and coincidentally, be a "monster" in a different context, should what I had written be confirmed.

So, what do you guys think? Was Tropical Storm 23W responsible for the Indonesia AirAsia Flight 8501 disaster? And if not, will it play a crucial role in the upcoming rescue efforts? Again, my condolences go out to the victims of the tragedy?

Thanks for reading,

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:15, December 29, 2014 (UTC)