User blog:Bobnekaro/Predictions for 97L

So we have Invest 97L in the Atlantic. Currently, according to the NHC, its development chances are 10% within 48 hours and 30% within 5 days. It's not likely to develop in the near future due to dry air from the Saharan Air Layer and fast movement. However, by Tuesday or Wednesday, the cyclone may encounter more favorable conditions for development when it reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Warm waters, a moist environment, low wind shear and a convectively-coupled Kelvin Wave could allow for 97L to gain some strength and develop into Tropical Storm Earl. 97L is likely to enter the Gulf of Mexico sometime late next week. Both the latest ECMWF and GFS models show the development of Earl in the western Gulf, before making landfall in southern Texas/northern Mexico.

We also have 96L...but it does not look good at all at this time, even at the Diurnal Maximum. Although the NHC still has development chances for 96L at 40% within 48 hours and 50% within 5 days, I'd place the odds at 20% within 48 hours and 5 days, given the unimpressive appearance and lack of model support. If it does find a way to develop, it would most likely be a depression at strongest. Conditions just aren't that favorable for 96L to develop because of a suppressing Kelvin Wave.

What are you expecting from 97L? Tropical wave Tropical depression Weak TS Moderate/Strong TS Category 1/2 hurricane Major hurricane

What are you expecting from 96L? Tropical wave Tropical depression Weak TS Moderate/Strong TS Category 1/2 hurricane Major hurricane