2016 Atlantic hurricane season (Sassmaster15 & MarioProtIV)

The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season was an active year of tropical cyclone formation in the North Atlantic Ocean. Overall, due to the presence of a weak La Niña in the Pacific Ocean, activity was above-average and the season was considered the most active since the 2012 season - tying for the third-most active on record with a total of 19 storms forming. While the dates that typically delimit tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic basin are from June 1 to November 30, the season began exceptionally early with the formation of Hurricane Alex in mid-January; nearly five months prior to the official start. Tropical Storm Bonnie followed in late May, marking the first occurrence of two pre-season tropical cyclones since 2012. As demonstrated by these atypical formations, tropical cyclone development is possible any time of the year. Meanwhile, Tropical Storms Colin and Danielle were the earliest third and fourth named storms on record, respectively. In early August, Hurricane Earl slammed Belize and later became the deadliest hurricane to impact Mexico since Hurricane Stan. Subsequently following was Hurricane Hermine, the first hurricane to make landfall in Florida since Hurricane Wilma, while Tropical Storm Julia was the first named storm on record to form over Florida. Between September and October, Hurricane Matthew became the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Felix. In addition, Hurricane Paula became the first major hurricane in the month of November since Hurricane Paloma.

Due to a combination of factors, including the development of a La Niña and above-average sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, activity was above-average and more or less met seasonal predictions. A majority of the season's tropical cyclones affected land to some degree and each one to do so caused loss of life, directly or indirectly. Hurricane Matthew was by far the costliest and deadliest, causing over $3 billion in damage to the Greater Antilles as well as the Carolinas. It should also be noted that the season was the first since 2007 to feature both pre-season and post-season activity.

Seasonal Outlook
TBA

Pre-Season
The season began exceptionally early, with the evolution of an extratropical cyclone to Hurricane Alex in mid-January. Alex first gained subtropical characteristics in the subtropical Atlantic, prior to becoming a fully tropical hurricane as it shifted northward. Alex then passed through the Azores as a minimal hurricane, eventually making landfall on the island of Terceira just as it weakened below hurricane intensity. Alex became extratropical once again just north of the Azores and was absorbed into a larger system in southern Labrador Sea on January 16. Mesoscale convective energy, leftover from the formation of the system, contributed to the formation of a powerful winter storm just west of the Azores.

Tropical cyclogenesis did not ensue again until late May, with an area of of disturbed weather officially being classified as a tropical depression on May 27. This system, better known as Tropical Storm Bonnie, was a weak but persistent tropical cyclone that brought flooding rains to the Carolinas over Memorial Day weekend. While Bonnie eventually turned post-tropical inland, it later regenerated over the open Atlantic just offshore North Carolina and re-attained its initial peak intensity as a weak tropical storm prior to dissipating south of Bermuda in early June.

Alex was the first Atlantic hurricane in the month of January since Hurricane Alice of 1954, and the first to form in the month since a storm in 1938. Bonnie, having formed just days before the official start of the season, marked the first occurrence of two pre-season tropical cyclones since 2012, and is the third only known occurrence on record since 1951.

Season
The majority of the season was highly active and featured a number of named storms, hurricanes, as well as three major hurricanes - the highest seasonal total within an Atlantic hurricane season since 2011.

June & July
On June 5, the same day Tropical Storm Bonnie dissipated, a new tropical disturbance near the Yucatán Peninsula consolidated into a tropical depression. The subsequent day, it was named Tropical Storm Colin, the earliest named "C" storm on record. Colin then made landfall near the Big Bend area of Florida as a marginal but large tropical storm. It made a second landfall near South Carolina a day later and re-attained its initial peak wind speed of 60 miles per hour as it skirted North Carolina. Colin remained at this intensity even as it turned extratropical. After a short respite in activity, an invest, dubbed 94L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), began to consolidate in the Bay of Campeche. This briefly peaked as Tropical Storm Danielle, prior to weakening and making landfall on the Mexican state of Veracruz as a tropical depression which dissipated hours later.

The month of July remained largely dormant, as operationally no storms developed throughout the month. However, a system near New England was found to have attained tropical storm status for at least two days as it remained stationed just off-shore New England. In addition, while Hurricane Earl operationally formed on August 2, it was determined the hurricane had formed much earlier, July 31, as its precursor disturbance entered the Caribbean.

August & September
As mentioned above, Hurricane Earl formed in July but spent the majority of its existence through August. Earl first caused serious damage in the Lesser Antilles as a moderate tropical storm as it carved a westerly path across the Caribbean. Earl attained hurricane status shortly before making landfall at that intensity in Belize. Earl re-gained strength in the Bay of Campeche and made its second landfall in Veracruz as a strong tropical storm. Earl's remnants contributed to the formation of Tropical Storm Javier in the eastern Pacific days later. Tropical Storm Fiona developed weeks later in the Main Development Region (MDR) from an initially organized tropical wave. Due to unfavorable conditions, Fiona failed to intensify beyond strong tropical storm status and became a remnant low several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. The next storm, Hurricane Gaston, a powerful Cape Verde-type hurricane also developed from a tropical wave about a week following Fiona and took a northwesterly path into the subtropical Atlantic where it briefly attained minimal hurricane status. However, shortly afterward, Gaston fell victim to the Saharan Air Layer as its circulation became elongated and "barely tropical". However, Gaston shifted northeast and later attained major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher according to the Saffir-simpson scale as it became a powerful annular hurricane. Operationally a high-end Category 3 hurricane, Gaston was found to have attained Category 4 status in post-analysis. Gaston subsequently weakened below hurricane intensity as it brushed the Azores, while its extratropical remnants went on to affect parts of Europe. Tropical Depression Eight developed in late August from an area of disturbed weather adjacent to Bermuda. While forecasts from the NHC forecasted a peak as a weak tropical storm, the depression failed to intensify beyond 35 miles per hour and dissipated east of Virginia in early September. The system brought rain showers and rough surf to the Outer Banks of North Carolina as it passed to the east while remaining offshore. Hurricane Hermine formed the same day from an initially well-organized and developed tropical wave, but did not begin intensifying until reaching the Gulf of Mexico. Rapidly intensifying throughout early September, Hermine subsequently made landfall near the Big Bend area of Florida at peak intensity. Hermine was the first hurricane-strength landfall in the state since Hurricane Wilma of 2005, ending a record eleven-year lull in which no hurricanes made landfall in the state. The storm continued to cause a swatch of destruction across the United States, including bringing torrential rain, flooding, and high winds to Georgia as well as the Carolinas throughout Labor Day weekend. Hermine eventually meandered just off-shore New Jersey as a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone that at one point re-attained hurricane-force winds. A state of emergency was declared by Governor Chris Christie in anticipation for an event similar to that of Hurricane Sandy. However, the storm later dissipated and all impacts were minimal.

After another short respite in activity, Tropical Storm Ian developed in mid-September from a tropical wave. Ian remained away from land during its lifetime as it carved a near northerly path across the central subtropical Atlantic, while its remnants went on to affect Europe. Only two days later, Tropical Storm Julia formed over eastern Florida - the first named storm on record to do so. Julia's formation can likely be attributed to the Brown Ocean Effect, as it retained its intensity as a compact tropical storm that also affected Georgia and South Carolina. Julia turned post-tropical as it emerged over water, while its remnants went on to affect North Carolina. Subsequently, Hurricane Karl formed out of a tropical wave that tracked westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Initially unfavorable conditions prevented significant intensification. Karl later began rapidly intensifying northeast of the Leeward Islands and fell just short of major hurricane status. As the storm accelerated northeast, it weakened to just below hurricane intensity as it brushed Bermuda with minor impacts. Karl then re-attained minimal hurricane status as it continued racing northeast and remained at this strength even as it turned extratropical. Just days after Karl's formation, another tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa. It rapidly consolidated to Tropical Storm Lisa, which cut a near westerly track across the Main Development Region as it failed to intensify beyond marginal tropical storm status. The remnants of the cyclone were monitored for potential regeneration near the Azores, though this failed to materialize. At the end of September and into October, another tropical wave began to consolidate just east of the Lesser Antilles. This began rapidly intensifying to Hurricane Matthew in the eastern Caribbean, later becoming the first Category 5 hurricane in the basin since Hurricane Felix as well as the southernmost Category 5 on record, surpassing Hurricane Ivan. Matthew became the first hurricane and major hurricane to affect Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti since Hurricane Sandy. Matthew went on to subsequently affect the Bahamas, compounding effects from Hurricane Joaquin the year prior. Matthew made its final landfall near the South Carolina/North Carolina border as a Category 4 hurricane - the first major hurricane landfall in the United States since Hurricane Wilma as well as the most intense storm to landfall in the United States since Hurricane Charley. The remnants of Matthew were last noted over Atlantic Canada on October 11.

October & November
While Hurricane Matthew persisted well into October, the first official storm development of the month was Tropical Depression Fifteen. While initially forecast to peak as a weak tropical storm, the depression was heavily sheared by Hurricane Matthew, in addition to entrainment from the Saharan Air Layer, which caused the system to rapidly weaken and dissipate within days. Hurricane Paula, the season's final major hurricane, developed at the end of the month in the central Caribbean and rapidly intensified as it took a track north-northwest - becoming the first major hurricane in the month since Hurricane Paloma, as well as the third-strongest November hurricane on record. Paula subsequently made landfall in central Cuba, a region untouched by Hurricane Matthew the previous month. It was the first major hurricane landfall in the nation since Hurricane Sandy, as well as the strongest and most intense hurricane to landfall there since Hurricane Gustav of 2008. Paula subsequently went on to brush southern Florida as a major hurricane and cross the Bahamas, compounding destruction from Matthew. Paula was later absorbed into a front just as it departed the archipelago.

Later that month, Tropical Storm Richard developed from an area of disturbed weather in the central Atlantic and shifted northeast into the subtropics, where it acquired a brief peak as a strong tropical storm. The remnants of the cyclone brought unsettled weather to Europe and caused significant damage in the United Kingdom.

Post-Season
The only post-season storm, Subtropical Storm Shary, was the first in the month since an unnamed subtropical storm in 2013. Meandering around the subtropical Atlantic for several days, Shary later dissipated on December 12 without affecting land.

Hurricane Alex
Around January 10, an extratropical cyclone formed north of the Bahamas and slowly gained strength as it drifted to the northeast. Ahead of the subtropical jet stream, the cyclone slowly gained a surface vortex while stationed 29 miles northeast of the Bahamas. Initial atmospheric conditions, such as wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 26-27 degrees Celsius inhibited tropical cyclogenesis as it approached the island nation of Bermuda. With a gradually expanding wind field, the cyclone lashed the nation with gale-force winds and heavy rain throughout the day January 11, bringing gusts exceeding 55 knots (65 miles per hour) in strength. Later that same day, an anomalous blocking pattern inhibited the cyclone from continuing on a northeasterly course and instead endured a track shift to the east. In this region of the subtropical Atlantic, conditions were more conducive to subtropical cyclogenesis. A brief convective burst generated hurricane-force winds in the system that night and into the subsequent day as it rapidly deepened to 976 millibars, even though convective activity near the center was sparse, if at all existent. On January 12, the cyclone separated itself from the jet stream and turned southeast while under the influence of a mid-latitude trough, and weakened as a result.

Throughout the latter portion of the day, substantial structural changes occurred as the occluded cyclone grew increasingly separated from its frontal boundaries, while convection began to coalesce around the center of the low atop the circulation. In combination with the aforementioned factors, the cyclone's location adjacent to an cold-core low, indicated the fundamental beginnings of a transition to a subtropical cyclone. The National Hurricane Center first issued advisories on the newly-formed subtropical storm at 21:00 UTC and was assigned the name Alex, respectively. However, operationally, the NHC did not initiate advisories on Alex until midday January 13. Though convection initially remained shallow, it was deemed deep and substantial enough for classification. At the time of this occurrence, Alex remained situated approximately 1,000 miles southwest of the Canary Islands. Embedded within the same trough that turned the cyclone southeast, it later turned Alex to the north-northeast. At 00:00 UTC, the presence of an eye was noted at the center of circulation amidst complex banding features, signifying the beginnings of intensification were underway. This eye feature later cleared out early January 14 and was surrounded by a ring of cloud tops of at least -60 degrees Celsius. Alex then moved away from the low it was previously positioned under, later acquiring a warm core alongside upper-level outflow, further stipulating Alex was obtaining tropical characteristics.

Despite passing over waters with temperatures no higher than 24-26 degrees Celsius, Alex never ceased deepening and was deemed a fully tropical cyclone at 10:00 UTC. Enabled by below-average upper-tropospheric temperatures, instability greatly increased as Alex progressed towards the Azores. Upon transition into a fully tropical cyclone, satellite estimates using the Dvorak technique designated Alex as a hurricane - first of the season. Shortly thereafter, Alex is estimated to have achieved its peak intensity of 80 knots (90 miles per hour), 979 millibars while advancing towards the Azores. Initially, Alex was estimated to have peaked at 75 knots (85 miles per hour), 981 millibars, but this was found to be otherwise as the hurricane was found to be slightly stronger in post-analysis, as verified by Dvorak estimates. Into January 15, as it continued approaching the Azores, Alex underwent gradual weakening as it endured decreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing wind shear. Becoming increasingly tilted in height, Alex weakened to 65 knots as it entered the Azores and shortly thereafter to a tropical storm as it made landfall on the island of Terceira at 22:00 UTC. Alex subjected the entire archipelago to an extended period of heavy rainfall, rough surf, and strong winds as it passed directly through the island chain. Departing the Azores that evening, the cyclone's eyewall then opened up, exposing its circulation and decaying convective structure; indicating the cyclone was undergoing a transition back to an extratropical cyclone. Less than two hours after landfall, Alex completed its extratropical transition. The structure of the cyclone became more elongated, significantly expanding its wind field. The overall structure and organization grew frontal, while it once again began deepening whilst approaching Greenland. Interaction with the island's mountains generated hurricane-force winds along the southeastern coast, though the cyclone had ceased intensifying. Late January 16, Alex was fully absorbed into another large extratropical low over the Labrador Sea.

Tropical Storm Bonnie
In late May, the National Hurricane Center began monitoring an area of disturbed weather resulting from the interaction of a cold front and upper-level trough. A surface low developed the subsequent day, gaining ample organization. On May 27, the NHC first initiated advisories on the depression at 21:00 UTC, the second of the season. While situated approximately 421 miles southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, Tropical Depression Two began moving northwest in response to a low positioned over the Bahamas and a ridge to its north, just off the coast of North Carolina. While tempering with unfavorable conditions, including strong vertical wind shear and dry air aloft the region hampered strengthening, the depression remained located over the exceedingly warm waters of the Gulf Stream. The subsequent day, a burst of deep atmospheric convection took place in the northwestern quadrant of the partially exposed low-level circulation center, and the organization that followed culminated in an upgrade to Tropical Storm Bonnie. Even with strong southerly shear exceeding 30 knots exposing part of Bonnie's LLCC, the cyclone remained a tropical storm while it underwent a northerly shift in track. Operationally, Bonnie attained a peak intensity of 40 knots but was later downgraded in post-analysis due to displaced convection as well as reconnaissance observations noting flight-level winds of 45-55 knots, thus suggesting surface winds of 35 knots. The following day, Bonnie's structure significantly degraded as it fell victim to strong shear exceeding 45 knots in strength. In addition, the adverse environment in which it was situated in caused much of its convection to dissipate that same day. Later that evening, less than an hour prior to landfall in South Carolina, Bonnie weakened to a tropical depression, unable to further combat the effects of its inauspicious environment.

Late May 29, Bonnie made landfall near Charleston, South Carolina and meandered over the state for over a day due to weak steering currents. Tropical Depression Bonnie caused extensive flooding due to torrential rainfall as it sat nearly stationary over southeast South Carolina while embedded within a ridge to its northwest. Early May 30, Bonnie further degenerated into a remnant low over the northeastern part of the state at 12:00 UTC. The remnant circulation persisted and continued to erratically drift over the state, eventually re-emerging over water and partially regaining some strength. Positioned over an area with light wind shear and warm SSTs, convection and organization became adequate enough for regeneration, of which occurred at 21:00 UTC June 1 just off the coast of North Carolina. Subsequently, despite atmospheric conditions magnifying, convection persisted about the center, and a new burst on June 2 led the cyclone being upgraded to a tropical storm once more. Hours later, the cyclone gained a new peak intensity of 35 knots, 1007 millibars, though operationally Bonnie was said to have attained winds of 40 knots at this point, as well. Into the next day, northwesterly shear and cooler waters forced convection away from the center, eventually decoupling it from the circulation itself. Withstanding the inimical conditions, Bonnie maintained tropical storm-force winds per recon data. On June 4, Tropical Storm Bonnie succumbed to unfavorable conditions and degenerated to a post-tropical cyclone that same day. The remnants of Bonnie continued to drift for another day prior to later dissipating over southwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Storm Colin
At the 00:00 UTC Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center on June 1, a note was made indicating the possibility of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico near the Yucatán Peninsula within five days. Initially, a system just adjacent to Cozumel was given a low, 30% percent chance of development in the subsequent five days. Within days, a concentrated and persistent area of showers and thunderstorms developed at the center of the low, resultantly increasing the chances for additional evolution to a tropical cyclone. Traveling west across the Caribbean Sea, the system tempered unfavorable wind shear as well as interaction with the approaching Yucatán Peninsula, but continued to acquire a well-developed structure. Consequently, the system had its chances raised to 80% within 48 hours. On June 5, the system moved inland over the Yucatán Peninsula, bringing about an extended period of squally weather, battering the northeastern end of the peninsula with heavy rains, gusty winds, persistent thunderstorms, and flooding. Despite land interaction, the system later emerged that evening just north of Mérida relatively unscathed. That same evening, the NHC issued a special update at 22:00 UTC initiating advisories on the third tropical depression of the season while stationed just north of the Yucatán, with satellite imagery providing sufficient evidence of a well-defined surface circulation.

Despite having deep convection and surface circulation, the structure of the depression remained lopsided, with much of the circulation to the east of an elongated band of convection. At 03:00 UTC, Tropical Depression Three was upgraded to Tropical Storm Colin due to reconnaissance aircraft observations of sustained tropical storm-force winds of 40 knots. Upon this development, Colin became the earliest third-named storm on record in the Atlantic basin, beating a record set previously by a storm in 1887. Colin underwent steady intensification in the Gulf of Mexico as it turned to the northeast, but remained disorganized due to upper-level wind shear. At this point, Colin was believed to have peaked intensity with maximum winds of 45 knots and a minimum pressure of 1000 millibars. In spite of that, it was noted in Colin's Tropical Cyclone Report that it had briefly attained peak winds of 50 knots on June 6 546 miles south of Pensacola, coupled with a slightly lower pressure of 998 millibars. In one particular discussion, the NHC noted the possibility of several small-scale circulations implanted within the vicinity of the overall circulation. In addition, Colin's overall structure and shape "did not resemble that of a classic tropical cyclone", with the majority of the most intense convection and strongest winds displaced well to the south and east of the center owing to strong wind shear in the region. Early June 7, Tropical Storm Colin began accelerating to the northeast due to an upper-level trough over the Midwestern United States.

At 00:00 UTC June 8, Tropical Storm Colin made landfall near Taylor County as a marginal tropical storm with maximum sustained wind speeds of 40 knots. Operationally, Colin was determined to have made landfall with winds of 45 knots, though all recording stations measured slightly lower winds upon landfall. Due to its elongated structure, tropical storm-like conditions spread across the state. Throughout the overnight hours, Colin brought torrential rainfall, strong winds, and a minor storm surge to western Florida. Upon departure, Colin rapidly accelerated north-northeast and flanked the southeastern United States, rapidly intensifying back to its initial peak intensity of 50 knots. Deemed "not fully tropical" by the National Hurricane Center, though substantial convection persisted in the southern quadrant of circulation. Tropical storm-force winds and tornadoes threatened the Carolinas as the large system continued to proceed to the northeast, maintaining its intensity as it underwent an extratropical transition hours later. Colin rapidly deepened to a barometric pressure of 986 millibars and retained its 50 knot wind speeds about 220 miles northeast of North Carolina upon completion of extratropical transition. The extratropical cyclone lingered about the subtropics for another week until absorption into a larger cyclone west of the Azores.

Season Effects
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