User blog:MarioProtIV/2017 Atlantic hurricane season - My predictions

Hi,

As we all know, the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is rapidly approaching. There are a lot of factors in place this season so it is a bit difficult to determine how active the season will be. The main factor will be whether El Nino is going to form or not, which as of this time are looking like it will not form in time to harm the season. My prediction numbers are listed below.

Activity Predictions

 * 16-18 named storms
 * 7-9 hurricanes
 * 4-5 major hurricanes

These are based on a number of factors, including the anticipated El Nino refusing to form, above average sea surface temperatures, anticipated low wind shear values near the peak of the season, and a fair amount of moistness in the atmosphere across the Atlantic. Of course, there is the chance that 2017 may be slightly more active then my predictions, with as much as possibly up to 20 named storms (down to Vince), but currently this doesn't look like it will occur. My forecast also takes into account the recent Tropical Storm Arlene that formed in April. I also expect at least one to two Category 5 hurricanes to form this year, and a possibility of one making landfall in the Atlantic this year at that strength.

Areas at risk
The areas at risk this year seem to be the United States, Mexico and Caribbean. This is based off of variations in landfalling tropical cyclones in the US, based off of the last few years. For example, 2012 had 3 US landfalls (including Sandy as an ET), 2013 had only 1, 2014 also had 1, 2015 had 2, and then last year had 5 make landfall (Bonnie, Colin, Hermine, Julia, Matthew). There is also a good potential for a major hurricane striking the US this year (we came very close last year with Matthew, but it veered off coast just slightly).

That is my May predictions for the 2017 season, I will update this when necessary.