2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season (UYScuti's Prediction)

The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1st, 2019 and ended November 30th, 2019.

Seasonal summary


The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, 2018. This season featured 18 tropical cyclones. Of the 18 cyclones, only 15 went on to attain tropical storm status. 9 became hurricanes and 5 strengthened into major hurricanes. The first storm developed on May 28 and the last storm dissipated on December 4. The above active activity was attributed to many factors. The most significant influence to the active season were above average sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic. The equatorial Pacific transitioned to cool-neutral conditions from an El Niño event in mid July, providing a more favourable environment for hurricanes to form. Weaker trade winds, along with lower than average sea level pressure and below average vertical wind shear favoured above average activity throughout the basin. However, moisture levels remained anomalously dry throughout the Main Development Region, which may have suppressed the season from becoming more active, especially in the months of August and September.

This year opened up with Andrea, an off-season hurricane that formed on May 28, making 2019 the fourth consecutive year that a named storm formed outside the official bounds of the Atlantic Hurricane season. Andrea strengthened into a hurricane and paralleled the US Coast before moving away from land. Thereafter, Andrea transitioned into an extratropical cyclone on June 2. After 3 weeks of inactivity, Barry formed in the Gulf of Mexico on June 25 while nearing the coast of Louisiana. Barry made landfall and dissipated on June 27. Three briefly formed on July 12 before moving over Florida and dissipated the next day. August featured Chantal, Dorian, Erin and Fernand. Chantal remained harmless out at sea, while Dorian edged near the Caribbean and the East Coast before dissipating on September 2. Erin was the season's first major hurricane, forming on August 27, and causing destruction to the Yucatán Peninsula and the Florida Panhandle. Fernand was the second major hurricane of the season in the central Atlantic.

September featured Gabrielle, Nine and Humberto. Gabrielle strengthened into a Category 1 Hurricane before succumbing to Erin's outflow on September 9. Nine formed in the western Caribbean before dissipating over Mexico. Humberto became one of the northernmost major hurricanes in the Atlantic after an unusual path in the Atlantic. October featured the most activity in terms of named storms, with Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Fourteen, Lorenzo and Melissa followed suit, with the latter becoming the most intense of the season. Imelda formed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on October 1 before making landfall in Florida and dissipating over Nova Scotia. Jerry was a short-lived tropical cyclone off the Leeward Islands. The most significant storm of the season was Hurricane Karen. The storm formed on October 13 and dissipated on October 27. The storm, throughout its lifespan, caused up to $49.37 Billion dollars in damages and thousands of fatalities across the Caribbean, Central America and Florida. Fourteen briefly formed east of the Lesser Antilles on October 17 before wind shear from Karen took a toll on the storm the next day. Lorenzo formed in the Caribbean Sea and raced through the Caribbean Islands before dissipating in the mid-Atlantic. Melissa formed on October 30 and was the most intense hurricane of the season. The hurricane caused destruction and deaths throughout the Caribbean Islands. Its remnant persisted for over 10 days as it traversed across the Atlantic. November featured Nestor and Olga. Nestor formed on November 22 and moved erratically before dissipating in the Northeastern central Atlantic on November 30. The season's final storm; Olga, formed on November 27 and dissipated on December 4.

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy index for the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season is 233.25 units.

Hurricane Andrea
An area of low pressure formed in the Western Caribbean Sea on May 22. The storm initially struggled to organize due to strong wind shear and land interaction as it moved northwards. On May 28, the system moved over warmer waters and quickly organized over the Bahamas. Further organization led to the development of a tropical depression at around 18:00 UTC. The next day, the storm strengthened into Tropical Storm Andrea while making landfall over Grand Abaco, Bahamas. Andrea paralleled the coast of Florida and Georgia while gradual strengthening ensued. Early on June 1, Andrea strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane while about 120 mi (195 km) southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina. After attaining peak intensity, the storm gradually weakened as it turned eastwards into cooler waters in response to an incoming trough. The storm further weakened into a tropical depression while passing north of Bermuda early on June 2. Andrea transitioned into an extratropical cyclone six hours later.

Andrea caused about $9.1 million in damage due to beach erosion throughout Florida and South Carolina. One man died from rip currents off the coast of North Carolina.

Tropical Storm Barry
The precursor of Barry was first noted as a trough of low pressure over the United States. On June 21, the system emerged into the western Gulf of Mexico where it favoured the formation of a tropical cyclone. On June 22, the system was showing signs of organization as a tropical wave merged into the system. The next day, further organization and convective activity prompted the declaration of the system to be a tropical depression and it was subsequently named 'Barry' six hours later. The storm moved north-northwesterly around the western periphery of the high pressure situated over the Western Atlantic. The system made landfall near Holly Beach, Louisiana on June 24. The system degenerated into a remnant low over northern Mississippi the next day.

In Louisiana, the system dumped over 15.7 in (400 mm) of rain throughout the state causing localized flooding. Two people died from drowning and another died from rip currents off the coast of Texas.

Tropical Depression Three
A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on June 30. Dry air inhibited development as the wave slowly traversed the Atlantic Ocean with minimal convection. As the low moved over favourable conditions on July 10, the NHC noted possible formation of a tropical cyclone within 5 days. While southwesterly wind shear and dry air was expected to limit further development, the disturbance gradually organized and developed a well-defined circulation. Around 06:00 UTC on July 12, convection increased throughout the center, resulting in the formation of Tropical Depression Three. The depression was not expected to further organize due to moderate to strong wind shear and proximity to land. It moved northward and made landfall near Tampa, Florida twelve hours later. Land interaction and further hostile conditions resulted in the degeneration of the depression into a remnant low by 12:00 UTC on July 13. The remnant low was absorbed by a frontal zone the next day.

Tropical Storm Chantal
The frontal zone that absorbed Tropical Depression Three stalled over the Atlantic Ocean on August 10. A non-tropical area of low pressure formed the next day approximately 450 miles (725 km) south-southwest of Bermuda. The system gradually moved westward into a more favourable environment, and northward due to a weakness in the subtropical ridge. On August 13, the disturbance coalesced into a tropical depression, intensifying into Tropical Storm Chantal six hours later. Dry air and moderate wind shear immediately took a toll on the system and the system degenerated into a remnant low the next day.

Hurricane Dorian
A tropical wave exited the coast of Africa on August 17. By August 22, the disturbance organized into a tropical depression. The depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Dorian six hours later while moving northwestward. Dorian began to rapidly intensify amid favourable conditions, and early on August 24, the system strengthened into a high end Category 2 Hurricane while beginning to slow down its movement. Coincidentally, A strengthening of the subtropical ridge steered Dorian southwestward posing a threat to the Caribbean Islands. Dorian briefly weakened due to cooler sea surface temperatures caused by upwelling. However, the system restrengthened into a Category 2 Hurricane while tracking northwestward due to a weakness in the steering ridge. The system continued to fluctuate in intensity due to moderate wind shear while continuing that direction. On August 30, the storm curved northeastward and weakened due to an increase in wind shear despite being over very warm waters. Thereafter, the system accelerated and passed south of Atlantic Canada while beginning to lose tropical characteristics, and on September 2, Dorian underwent extratropical transition southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

Although, Dorian initially prompted fears over the Caribbeans, the storm did not make any landfalls throughout its life. Despite being over the ocean, Dorian caused $6 million dollars in damage in Puerto Rico and the British Virgin Islands due to storm surge. Tropical winds were felt as far south as the US Virgin Islands. Strong winds knocked down trees and power lines in that area, causing about $590,000 in damages.

Hurricane Erin
On August 23, the NHC monitored a robust tropical wave over central Africa. The wave exited the coast of Africa on August 26 and the wave rapidly organized and convection increased. On the next day, the wave organized into a tropical depression and was named Tropical Storm Erin twelve hours later. The storm maintained a westward movement under the influence of a subtropical ridge. Intensification was expected to be slow due to dry Saharan air mass. By 12:00 UTC on August 30, the system unexpectedly intensified into a hurricane amidst dry air. The hurricane began to further intensify and subsequently attained Category 3 intensity on September 2, the first major hurricane of the season. Thereafter, weakening ensued as the hurricane approached the Lesser Antilles. Around 18:00 UTC on September 4, Erin made landfall in Barbados as a minimal hurricane, producing heavy rainfall and widespread flooding. The system continued westward where it underwent rapid intensification south of Haiti and peaked at Category 4 storm with winds of 155 mph (250 km/h). The storm fluctuated in strength due to an eyewall replacement cycle. The storm gradually weakened while increased its speed and made landfall over Belize as a minimal Category 3 hurricane and reemerged over the Bay of Campeche as a weakened hurricane. Thereafter, it recurved northeastward where U.S. landfall is imminent. The hurricane strengthened into a Category 2 storm and made landfall near Panama City, Florida at around 0000 UTC on August 14 with 100 mph (165 km/h) winds. The storm began weakening thereafter and transitioned into an extratropical over North Carolina 24 hours later.

Throughout the Lesser Antilles, the system brought heavy rain and caused flooding. However, damage was minimal throughout the area. Although, Erin moved south of the Greater Antilles, the outer bands of the hurricane dropped more than 27.6 in (700 mm) in some rural areas. In Haiti, multiple landslides resulted in 16 deaths. Throughout the Lesser Antilles, total damage reached about $40 million. In Jamaica, one death was attributed to flooding. Impacts in Belize were far less severe than initially thought with minimal damage from sporadic flooding. In Mexico, the hurricane caused widespread flooding throughout the country resulting in 4 deaths and caused about $440 million in damage. Along the coast of the Florida Panhandle, the hurricane caused major damage to coastal towns with coastal and freshwater flooding was reported in many counties. One people died from a fallen tree and one person died from drowning. Additionally, one death was caused by rip currents and the other from repairing works. Estimated damage reached around $1.3 billion. Overall, damage from Erin reached $1.78 Billion

Hurricane Fernand
On August 22, the NHC began monitoring a tropical wave moving off the coast of West Africa. Dry air stunted development as it moved across the Atlantic Ocean. On August 28, convective activity increased as the disturbance gradually began moving north-northwestward. The next day, good outflow and further organization led to the formation of Tropical Storm Fernand at around 12:00 UTC on August 29. Steady strengthening began as Fernand moved to a more favourable environment. Fernand strengthened into a major hurricane around the same time Erin did. Though the system remained small and compact. At that time, Fernand began to move northeastward and then eastward over cooler water, causing it to gradually weaken. Early on September 5, Fernand weakened into a tropical storm while moving over the Azores. Twelve hours later, Fernand completely transitioned into an extratropical cyclone while approaching the Iberian Peninsula, producing minimal impacts with the strongest recorded winds at 42 mph (68 km/h) in isolated areas.

Hurricane Gabrielle
A vigorous tropical wave exited off West Africa on September 1. The disturbance quickly organized into a tropical depression early on September 3. The depression quickly strengthened into Tropical Storm Gabrielle on the same day. The system quickly strengthened over conductive environments, and by the next day, Gabrielle strengthened into a hurricane. Dry air coupled with wind shear weakened the system after attaining peak intensity with winds of 85 mph (140 km/h). The system gradually became poorly organized while moving westward towards the Lesser Antilles. Dry air and moderate wind shear continued to wreak havoc on the tropical system as Gabrielle weakened to a minimal tropical storm. Shortly thereafter, outflow from Hurricane Erin exposed the circulation on September 8. On the next day, very hostile environment led to a degeneration of Erin into an elongated trough east of Martinique.

Tropical Depression Nine
Tropical Depression Nine formed in the Western Caribbean from a westward moving tropical wave that left West Africa on September 15. The depression continued westward and made landfall over Belize on the same day of its formation. As Nine moved into the Bay of Campeche, further strengthening is not expected due to proximity to land. Nine made its final landfall on the southern state of Veracruz late on September 26. Early on September 27, Nine dissipated over the mountainous terrains of Mexico.

Flooding from Nine left two people dead while damages reached $1 million in Mexico.

Hurricane Humberto
A slow moving tropical wave emerged into the Eastern Atlantic Ocean on September 21. The system slowly organized into a tropical depression late on September 26. Early on the next day, the system strengthened into Tropical Storm Humberto while located between the Lesser Antilles and Cape Verde. Strengthening was expected to be slow due to abundant dry air in the vicinity of the system. Humberto moved slowly westward, and then looped eastward due to a fujiwhara effect with another tropical wave that would become Imelda. Due to a weakness in the ridge, the cyclone moved towards the northeast where it encountered warmer waters, allowing the system to strengthen into a hurricane on October 2. Shortly thereafter, strong wind shear along with dry air rapidly weakened the hurricane, causing the system to become poorly organized. On the next day, the system weakened into a tropical depression with its circulation appearing elongated. Many forecasters anticipated the degeneration of the incapacitated shortly thereafter. However, the depression unexpectedly began to curve towards the northwest towards more favourable condition, allowing the opportunity for the storm to strengthen upon revival. While moving northwestward, convection flared as Humberto underwent rapid intensification. On October 6, Humberto strengthened into a Category 4 Hurricane with winds of 145 mph (230 km/h) at a latitude of 39°N, making it one of the few hurricanes to become a hurricane of Category 4 strength at such latitudes. After peak intensity, Humberto began to weaken as it move over cooler waters and the hurricane became a powerful extratropical cyclone by 06:00 UTC on October 8.

The remnants of Hurricane Humberto brought strong winds and heavy rain over the British Isles and Scandinavian countries. Total damage from Humberto as an extratropical cyclone reached $282 million, particularly in Wales.

Tropical Storm Imelda
A stationary front in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, associated with a tropical wave developed into Tropical Storm Imelda on October 1. The system remained stationary after tropical cyclogenesis due to a blocking pattern over the Atlanticand over Eastern United States. Upwelling and moderate wind shear prevented Imelda from strengthening despite being over warm waters. Imelda slowly moved northeastward and made landfall in a sparsely populated area in the eastern side of the Florida Panhandle. The system maintained tropical storm intensity over land until it became extratropical over North Carolina on October 6.

Due to its stationary and slow movement, the system dumped heavy rain over parts of Florida and Southeastern United States resulting in localized flooding. Three deaths were caused by drowning; two in Florida and one in Georgia while another person died while skidding off the highway. Estimated damage reached $35 million, mainly in Florida.

Tropical Storm Jerry
A tropical wave exited the West Coast of Africa on October 2 and moving westward. Development was not expected due to strong wind shear. However, on October 6, wind shear abated just enough for convective activity to increase around the ill-defined center. On the next day, further organization led to the development of Tropical Storm Jerry under marginally conducive environment. Moving northward, the storm battled wind shear while trying to consolidate and strengthen. The next day, the storm reached a peak intensity of 50 mph (85 km/h) before succumbing to strong southwesterly wind shear on October 9.

Hurricane Karen
On October 6, the NHC began monitoring a tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa for potential development. Showers and thunderstorms activity increased and gradually organized while it moves westward across the Atlantic Ocean. On October 13, deep convection become more prominent leading to the formation of a tropical depression. Early on the next day, it was classified as Tropical Storm Karen 440 mi (710 km) east of the island of Barbuda while moving in the west-northwest direction. Karen was expected to move into an area where wind shear was expected to mitigate in conjunction with warmer sea surface temperatures. At around 12:00 UTC on October 15, Karen strengthened into a hurricane while gradually steering westward, then southwestward due to an influence in the subtropical ridge. On the next day, Karen strengthened into a Category 2 Hurricane and reached Category 3 strength early on October 17. At this point, Karen was threatening to make landfall in the Caribbean Island. Karen made landfall near Punta de Maisi, Cuba with winds of 125 mph (205 km/h). The strong hurricane briefly fell to Category 2 strength due to land interaction and skirted the coast of Jamaica. A period of rapid intensification began as the hurricane emerged over the Western Caribbean, strengthening into a powerful Category 5 Hurricane on October 20 with winds of 175 mph (280 km/h). Karen fluctuated between Category 4 and 5 while gradually beginning a westward, and then northwestward towards the Yucatán Peninsula. Karen made landfall west of Playa de Carmen, Mexico on October 23 with winds of 140 mph (220 km/h). The storm weakened to a Category 2 Hurricane later that day as it emerged onto the Gulf Coast, heading northeastward. Rapid intensification took place and the storm reached its third peak intensity as a Category 4 Hurricane with winds of 155 mph (250 km/h) before making landfall in Marco Island, Florida as a high-end Category 3 Hurricane. Karen weakened to a Category 1 Hurricane upon entering the Atlantic Ocean where it underwent extratropical transition on October 27.

Karen was one of the deadliest hurricanes in history where it killed an estimated 900 - 1,100 people in Haiti alone. About 34 deaths and $100 million in damage were reported in Dominican Republic from floodwaters. In Cuba, damages from the hurricane reached about $3.2 billion with 2 reported deaths. As Karen brushed Jamaica as a slow moving system, it brought heavy rain to that area causing widespread flooding, causing up to $500 million in damages and 3 deaths. In Cayman Islands, strong winds and storm surge caused about $390 million in damage and 2 deaths. Damage in Yucatán Peninsula was widespread and destructive as Karen passed by. The storm caused at least $10 billion in damages and 13 deaths. In Florida, Karen proved to be a destructive hurricane upon impact, with estimated damage of around $35 Billion. Saturated grounds from Imelda allowed Karen to cause widespread flooding in Florida. The hurricane caused 51 deaths in total as it passed over the state with 42 direct and 9 indirect.

Tropical Depression Fourteen
A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on October 10. On October 15, the wave separated into two with the southern wave becoming Lorenzo in the Caribbean Sea. October 17, the interaction between a disturbance and a convectively coupled kelvin wave organized into Tropical Depression Fourteen despite unfavourable conditions. Outflow from Hurricane Karen limited the intensity of this storm while moving westward. About 24 hours after formation, Fourteen degenerated into a remnant low in response to Karen expanding in the Western Caribbean Ocean.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo
Lorenzo originated from a tropical wave that broke off from the wave that would ultimately become Fourteen. The system organized in the Caribbean Sea while projected to move northwestward, then northeastward. Lorenzo remained as a poorly organized tropical depression while approaching Haiti due to outflow from Hurricane Karen. However, a small pocket of favourable conditions gave Lorenzo an opportunity to briefly strengthen into a tropical storm. The storm made landfall over Western Haiti and thus, weakened back into a tropical depression. Lorenzo reattained tropical storm status as wind shear slightly decreased and it peaked with winds of 50 mph (85 km/h) while accelerating northward. Early on October 26, Lorenzo became extratropical while about 210 mi (340 km) east-southeast of Bermuda.

Due to the previous impacts from Karen, the true number of deaths on Haiti remains unknown.

Hurricane Melissa
A tropical wave exited off the coast of Africa on October 24. Strong wind shear inhibited development as it move westward towards the Lesser Antilles. On October 30, the disturbance developed into a tropical depression while situated in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, the system began to undergo rapid intensification, intensifying into a hurricane on the next day. At around 12:00 UTC on November 1, the storm peaked at Category 5 strength with winds of 165 mph (270 km/h), making it one of the most powerful hurricane in the month of November. The storm began moving northwestward towards strong wind shear, and on November 3, the storm weakened to a Category 4 Hurricane. Melissa quickly deteriorated due to hostile conditions, and early on November 4, Melissa made landfall in Cuba as a weakening Category 1 hurricane. The storm further weakened into a tropical storm over land. At 12:00 UTC on the same day, Melissa degenerated into a remnant low. The low moved erratically across the Atlantic with intermittent convective burst, indicating the possibility of redevelopment. However, conditions remained too harsh for formation and the low dissipated at 12:00 UTC on November 16 just east-southeast of the Azores.

Melissa wreaked havoc across the Caribbean, many of which were previously affected by Karen. In Colombia, the outer bands of Melissa caused flooding and landslide in many areas. There were 18 reported deaths and $200 million in damages. In Haiti and Dominican Republic, the outer rain bands caused flooding and landslides in many areas, delaying the recovery process after Karen. 51 and 5 confirmed deaths were reported there, respectively. However, the actual number of deaths from Melissa is still unknown due to previous impacts from other storms. In Jamaica, 4 fatalities were reported while strong winds and heavy rain caused flooding and more damage to infrastructure and houses. Its actual damage cannot be fully distinguished from Karen. Most of the destruction was in the Cayman Islands where sustained winds peaked at 156 mph (251 km/h). Many structures on the three island sustained some kind of damage ranging from minimal to complete flattening and destruction, caused by storm surge. There were 8 deaths and damage on the island reached $4.1 Billion. In Cuba, the impacts of the storm was far less severe than anticipated, possibly due to the rapid weakening of the storm and the poor organization of the storm. Damage was only limited to minor flooding and downed trees caused by strong winds. Total damage from the storm was about $100 million, mainly from crops.

Hurricane Nestor
A strong non-tropical low formed in the northern Central Atlantic Ocean. The low moved erratically before moving southward towards warmer waters where it organized into a tropical depression on November 22. Despite being over ocean temperatures of 73°F (23°C), the system strengthened into Tropical Storm Nestor early on the next day. The system executed an anticyclonic loop before strengthening into a hurricane. The storm's movement slowed as it began moving southward, then southeastward towards more favourable conditions, allowing it to intensify into a Category 2 hurricane at around 12:00 UTC on November 27. After moving eastward as a Category 2 hurricane, the storm began to weaken due to cooler sea surface temperatures and stronger wind shear. Nestor began to accelerate east-northeastward and further weakened before transitioning into a powerful extratropical cyclone at 12:00 UTC on November 30 with winds of 65 mph (100 km/h). The storm made its final landfall on the Iberian Peninsula before merging into a front.

As an extratropical cyclone, the storm brushed through between the islands of Madeira and Canarias. Wind gusts up to 73 mph (117 km/h) were reported on the island, downing trees and damaging houses. Total damage there reached $30 million. The storm weakened considerably while moving over Iberian Peninsula. Damage was minimal in that area.

Tropical Storm Olga
A broad area of low pressure formed in the southwestern Caribbean Sea on November 25. On November 27, the system gradually organized into Tropical Storm Olga as it slowly moved towards the coast of Nicaragua. The storm peaked with winds of 70 mph (110 km/h) before making landfall on the northern coast of Nicaragua. The storm quickly degenerated due to the mountainous terrains of Nicaragua and Honduras. The storm emerged off the coast of northern Honduras with chances of regeneration. It meandered off the coast until it regenerated into a tropical depression on December 1 while beginning to crawl northward. Due to strong wind shear, the depression remained disorganized and failed to intensify into a tropical storm. On December 4, the storm opened into a trough of low pressure as it neared Western Cuba.

Olga caused 34 deaths in Central America, 23 in Nicaragua, 6 in Honduras and 5 in Costa Rica. Total damage from Olga reached $20 million.

Storm names
The following names were used to name tropical and subtropical cyclones in the 2019 season.

Retirement
On April 24, 2020, at the 42nd session of the Regional Association Hurricane Committee, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) retired the name Karen and Melissa from its rotating name lists and it will be never used again.

Season Effects
This is a table of the storms and their effects in the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. This table includes the storm's names, duration, peak intensity, Areas affected (bold indicates made landfall in that region at least once), damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but are still storm-related. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave or a low. All of the damage figures are in 2019 USD (the listed damage figure is in millions).