2016 Great Lakes Hurricane Season

The 2016 Great Lakes Hurricane Season is a current event in the annual cyclone season in the Great Lakes area of the United States and Canada. It was the first year the National Hurricane Center started monitoring tropical cyclones in the Great Lakes after their increase, thus making it the first official Great Lakes Hurricane Season. So far, 5 cyclones formed this season.

Season Predictions
In December 2016, after 5 tropical cyclones formed in the Great Lakes Basin, the NHC announced that it would start monitoring and naming storms in the Great Lakes region. Some people still didn not believe that hurricanes formed in the great lakes basin so they just dismissed it. However, a few predictions were still made reguardless. The Weather Channel predicted 12 depressions, 11 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The NHC predicted the season would have 15 depressions, 13 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Season Summary
The summary has not been done yet. This is a new hurricane season so therefore this page is in a WIP stage. Check back later to see if the Summary is there or not. If now, just keep waiting.

Hurricane Alex
On June 13th, 2016, a small area of thunderstorms popped up north of Traverse City on Lake Michigan. The NHC noted for the possibility of tropical cyclone formation with the storm complex within the next 48 hours. By the next morning, aircraft discovered a closed circulation with winds at 35 MPH, initiating advisories on Tropical Depression 1 by 11 AM that morning. Tropical Storm Watches got issued for the coastlines of Lake Michigan south of Traverse City latitude. Due to moderate wind shear, Tropical Depression 1 had difficulty organizing and stayed at tropical depression strength till the next day. Hurricane Hunters found 40 MPH winds by 10 AM on June 15, 2016, becoming Tropical Storm Alex. Tropical Storm Watches to the north got discontinued while Tropical Storm Warnings got issued south and a Hurricane Watch was put in effect due to the possibility of the storm reaching hurricane intensity. Later that night, Alex hit hurricane intensity and began to rapidly intensify, becoming a Category 2 storm quickly. Hurricane Warnings got issued, with storm surge likely along the coastlines and high winds. Hurricane Alex made landfall on June 16th at 11:30 PM outside of Chicago. Shortly after moving ashore, the storm weakened considerably and eventually degenerated into a remnant low early on June 17th, though it still packed hurricane-force winds. The remnants persisted for another day before finally dissipating. Overall, Hurricane Alex is estimated to have caused at least $10 billion in damages and claimed around 82 lives.

Subtropical Storm Benjamin
A nontropical occluded low pressure area moved into Lake Huron on July 1st. As soon as the storm moved into Lake Huron, the storm lost its frontal zones and began to intensify from the warm waters. The NHC stated that the storm could form into a tropical or subtropical cyclone at any time. However, dry air was in the mix and the storm still had some frontal features. Later that day, the NHC issued the first advisory on Subtropical Depression 2 at 5:00 PM. By 8:00 PM, sustained winds of 40 MPH were found, naming the storm Benjamin. The storm was forecast to make landfall near Port Huron, Michigan. Due to this, Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for most of the thumb and inland into Southeast Michigan. The next day, Benjamin made landfall as a 70 MPH subtropical storm. After moving inland, the storm weakened rapidly to 40 MPH sustained winds, then it went to 35 MPH sustained winds. The thunderstorms associated with Benjamin spawned 8 tornadoes, one was at EF3 strength and hit Dearborn, Michigan. Because of the tornado, damage from Subtropical Storm Benjamin was around $1 billion. 8 people died from Benjamin, all deaths being related to the tornado.

Tropical Storm Carly
An area of thunderstorms developed on July 30th and began to rapidly organize. The NHC noted the thunderstorms could likely become a tropical depression or storm at any time. Later that day, a hurricane hunters flight found a closed circulation with sustained winds of 35 MPH and designated it as Tropical Depression 3. By the next advisory, winds sustained of 45 MPH were found, and the storm was named Carly. Carly was expected to make landfall in Canada but soon the NHC saw the storm turning with no stop. Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for the Lake Superior coastline in Michigan and a Hurricane Watch was issued alongside it for a possibility of Carly to become a hurricane. However, Carly was fighting some strong westerly shear, which kept the storm at a 45 MPH storm. Soon, however, the shear weakened and Carly explosively intensified to a 65 MPH tropical storm just before its first landfall. After landfall, the storm weakened down to a 40 MPH tropical storm and held that intensity till it got over lake Michigan, where it attained a secondary peak intensity of 55 MPH before its second landfall near Traverse City. Twelve hours after the landfall, Carly degenerated into a remnant low and dissipated around 30 miles north of Saginaw, Michigan. Carly was responsible for $50 million in damages and killed 3 people.

Tropical Depression 4
An area of thunderstorms moved into Lake Michigan ahead of a cold front on August 15th. The NHC noted there was a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing but not a high chance. The NHC had the chances of development at a 10% chance. However, convection started to wrap around the center and later, an aircraft found a center of circulation with winds of 35 MPH around the center. The NHC then started issuing advisories on Tropical Depression 4 the same day. The NHC noted the storm could potentially strengthen to a minimal tropical storm just before landfall so Tropical Storm Warnings were put out for this possibility. However, moderate westerly wind shear associated with the oncoming cold front prevent the storm from getting stronger and it made landfall early on August 16th without ever reaching tropical storm intensity. The storm later opened up into a trough and brought heavy rain to Southeast Michigan. The remnants of the storm also caused severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings in Southeast Michigan. Overall, damage from the storm was minimal.

Hurricane Dean
Early on August 29th, an area of strong thunderstorms developed near Mackinac Island. There was no wind shear to limit development so the NHC noted a tropical cyclone could develop rapidly within the day. Later that day, the thunderstorms appeared to be going around a center of circulation and an aircraft found 35 MPH sustained winds, starting advisories on Tropical Depression 5 at 11 AM that day. By the 1 PM intermediate advisory, Tropical Storm Dean got named since the Hurricane Hunters found winds sustained at 45 MPH. The storm rapidly intensified to a 70 MPH tropical storm and by 11 PM that night, Dean was a Category 1 hurricane. A landfall was projected near Port Austin, Michigan. Hurricane Warnings got issued throughout the thumb and into parts of Southeast Michigan, with Tropical Storm Warnings for other areas. Hurricane Dean slowed down its forward speed a little bit and it intensified to a 100 MPH Category 2. Landfall was projected before midnight that night. Just before landfall, a NHC position update at 10:00 PM revealed winds of 105 MPH and 30 minutes later, the storm made landfall as a 105 MPH Category 2 Hurricane. The storm increased its forward speed and went on a weakening trend. When the center of circulation went over Ann Arbor, Michigan at 6 PM on September 1st, the eyewall had sustained winds of 75 MPH with gusts up to 85 MPH. 2 hours later, the storm was a 60 MPH tropical storm entering Ohio entering extratropical transition. It completed the transition at 5 AM on September 2nd. The NHC ceased issuing advisories on Dean at 5 PM that afternoon as the system was weakening and a non-tropical low was catching up to the system. Dean caused $600 million in damages overall, with the worst of the damage near Port Austin, Michigan. 10 people were killed due to this storm.

Tropical Storm Erika
On September 22nd, an area of thunderstorms situated on Lake Erie were showing signs of development. The NHC stated the storms could develop into a tropical cyclone within the next two days. Later that day, a NHC hurricane hunters flight investigated the area and noticed a closed circulation had formed. It would have been assigned tropical depression but the storm already had 40 MPH sustained winds, so the NHC started issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Erika at 5 PM. Due to the findings, tropical storm warnings were issued along the Erie coast from Ohio to parts of Southeast Michigan. The NHC advisories stated that the storm would bring heavy rain ahead of landfall for a couple days, which also caused flood watches to be issued for parts of Ohio and Michigan. On September 24th, the storm intensified to 50 MPH and developed a band with inflowing moisture from Lake Michigan, enhancing the rainfall in the bands. Winds were gusting to 65 MPH, which easily brought down trees due to the already very wet soil. It then made landfall on September 25th as a 50 MPH tropical storm. The storm continued inland for another day before opening up into a trough and dissipating. Erika caused widespread flooding and knocked out power to over 2 million customers in both Michigan and Ohio. In all, Erika has been estimated to have caused over $450 million in damages but caused no deaths.

Hurricane Fay
On October 3rd, a complex of thunderstorms moved into Lake Ontario with sustained winds of 30 MPH. The NHC noted that the storm complex was very likely to develop into a tropical cyclone the next day. Sure enough, on October 4th, Tropical Storm Fay was named skipping the depression stage due to already 40 MPH winds being recorded when a closed circulation was found. Tropical Storm Warnings got issued along most of the Lake Ontario coastlines and a Hurricane Watch was issued further east as some models showed towards Fay becoming a hurricane. Fay was one of those slower moving storms which allowed it more time over water. The next day, Fay had developed into a 75 MPH Category 1 hurricane. The models showed the storm becoming an 90 MPH Category 1 hurricane and some even showed this storm at becoming a 100 MPH Category 2 hurricane. However, moderate wind shear came in and slowed strengthening. Despite the wind shear though, the storm still managed to strengthen to a 85 MPH Category 1 Hurricane on October 6th. It then made landfall near Sackets Harbor, New York, which sustained a storm surge of 8.8 feet. The storm continued inland for the next two days as a weakening tropical cyclone. Finally, on October 8th, the storm degenerated into a remnant low and got absorbed into a mid-latitude storm. Hurricane Fay caused major damage in Sackets Harbor due to most of the village being flooded out. Other areas sustained major river flooding from Fay. Damage from Fay is estimated to be around $345 million.

Tropical Storm Gerald
Tropical Storm Gerald was a near-hurricane strength strong tropical storm that originated from a thunderstorm complex moving into Lake Michigan on October 14th. It quickly gained depression status upon moving into the lake. It intensified further quickly to a 40 MPH tropical storm, which got the name Gerald. The NHC noted for the possibility of Gerald to become a hurricane before hitting Mackinac Island. Due to this, tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches got issued ahead of Gerald. By October 15th, the storm was a 70 MPH tropical storm and it was bearing down on Mackinac Island. Earlier that day, Gerald made landfall on Beaver Island as a 50 MPH tropical storm. Mackinac Island was now prepared for the worst at this time. Gerald pushed a storm surge up to 5.3 feet into Mackinac Island, flooding the downtown area and some residential neighborhoods. Gerald then made its second landfall on Mackinac Island with winds of 70 MPH. After the landfall on Mackinac Island, Gerald weakened to a 60 MPH tropical storm and made its final landfall on Drummond Island, Michigan on October 16th. The storm then started to dissipate rapidly and was absorbed into another storm system on October 17th. Gerald caused $200 million in damages, especially on Mackinac Island, and claimed 7 lives.

Hurricane Hermine
An area of disturbed weather moved onto Lake Michigan early October 18th. The NHC noted the storm could develop quickly and may develop into something bigger. By 5:00 PM on October 18th, the NHC started issuing advisories on Tropical Depression 9. It strengthened rapidly to Tropical Storm Hermine early on October 19th. This would start a period of rapid intensification. It strengthened rapidly to a 90 MPH Category 1 hurricane later that day, then proceeded to strengthen even more to a Category 2 Hurricane by the 5PM advisory. From there it rapidly intensified further to a Category 3 hurricane, making it the second major hurricane of the 2016 Great Lakes hurricane season. It intensified even more to a 185 MPH monster Category 5 hurricane, now the strongest storm ever recorded in the Great Lakes basin. What made things worse is that the forecasts put this storm at having over 200 MPH winds due to the extremely warm lake waters. The 5:00 Advisory the next day confirmed winds of over 200 MPH near the eyewall. Just the previous day, the NHC added Category 6 to the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, defining it as any hurricane with winds over 195 MPH, making Hermine the first Category 6 ever recorded using the new scale.

Current Storm Information
As of 5:00 PM EST, Hurricane Hermine was located 15 miles east of Mackinac Island, Michigan. Tropical Storm Force winds extend out 70 miles, while Hurricane force winds extend out 40 miles from the center of the storm. Hurricane Warnings are issued in the northern LP counties of Michigan and the southern UP counties. The current advisory has Hermine becoming even stronger despite it already being one of the strongest storms ever recorded already. New Hurricane Warnings with this advisory have been issued from the thumb to the Detroit Metropolitan area. New Hurricane Watches with this advisory include all the Lake Erie coastline. Next advisory at 5:00 AM EST.

Tropical Storm Ingrid
An area of thunderstorms developed on Lake Erie early on October 19th. The NHC put the area of disturbed weather for a slight chance of development due to some wind shear from Hurricane Hermine. By 5:00 that day, a closed circulation with 40 MPH sustained winds was found by an aircraft passing through, launching advisories on Tropical Storm Ingrid by 5:00 PM EST. The storm would not get stronger though. It made landfall near Cleveland, Ohio on October 20th at 5:40 AM EST. The storm started to move inland from there and dropped heavy rains. The storm got absorbed into an extratropical system around noon. The biggest rainfall totals from Tropical Storm Ingrid have amounted to 20 inches and caused flash flooding. Early estimates put damage from Ingrid at $150 million.

Storm names
The following names were used to name tropical cyclones this year. This was the first time that names were used to name tropical cyclones that formed in the Great Lakes, even though other hurricanes formed in this basin in the past. The names will rotate every 6 years, with the same names used in 2016 to be used in 2022 except for retirements. Unused names are marked in.

Season effects
Might be added? If anyone wants to add the table, go ahead.