User blog:Hurricane Layten/Ernie develops from nowhere in the Australian Region

Um, OK, so I looked at the tropical storm in the western Australian Region this morning, expecting to see maybe 60 mph out of the system, only to find it a top end category 2 with 110 mph winds.The presentation of Cyclone Ernie is incredible, and i do think that the current JTWC forecast peak of 130 mph may be on the conservative side. Yes, I'm calling for a Category 5 from this one, which will also help bring up the record low ACE count so far this year to near average if it does.

The cyclone is currently moving slowly to the west-southwest, and is expected to be a Category 3 later today. However, at the rate things are gong, I wouldnt be at all surprised if we had a category 5 on our hands by late tonight. Anyway, I'll be staying tracking Ernie, and will post updates if I can.

But let me say one thing. Ernie's Dvorak numbers are already 5.5, which is the equivalent of 117 mph 1-minute sustained winds, making it already a Category 3 on the SSHWS. Let me be honest, last time I saw such an abrupt intensification was October 2015. And yes, I'm on about Hurricane Patricia here. Whilst I dont think it will get anywhere near as powerful, it wouldnt surprise me to see 180 mph out of Ernie if it continues to explode like this.