User blog:AkioTheOne/2017 Prediction - May 16, 2017

So, a bunch of users made their prediction on what they expected from 2017. I made one yesterday, however it was heavily criticized. I have decided to do some more research, and I have made my final prediction as of now.

ATLANTIC
I predict a slightly above average season to an above average season.

NAMED STORMS (40+ MPH): 13-16

HURRICANES (74+ MPH): 7-10

MAJOR HURRICANES (115+ MPH): 4-5

And by month.

REST OF MAY: Dead

JUNE: Average

JULY: Slightly Above Average

AUGUST: Above Average

SEPTEMBER: Average - Slightly Above Average

OCTOBER: Slightly Below Average

NOVEMBER: Below Average

DECEMBER: Dead

EASTERN PACIFIC
For the Eastern Pacific, I predict somewhat similar numbers to the Atlantic, which would make the season Slightly Below Average to Average.

NAMED STORMS (40+ MPH): 12-15

HURRICANES (74+ MPH): 5-7

MAJOR HURRICANES (115+ MPH): 2-3

And by month.

REST OF MAY: Dead - Below Average

JUNE: Below Average - Slightly Below Average

JULY: Slightly Below Average

AUGUST: Average

SEPTEMBER: Average

OCTOBER: Average

NOVEMBER: Slightly Above Average

CENTRAL PACIFIC
NAMED STORMS (40+ MPH): 1-2

HURRICANES (74+ MPH): 1

MAJOR HURRICANES (115+ MPH): 0-1

Why I say this
1. Models that were forecasting a full blown El Nino are dropping it, as it is struggling to develop. However it is still entirely possible by the end of the season, which is why I put in a below average November for the Atlantic and a Slightly Above Average November in the Eastern Pacific.

2. Favorable Conditions for the Atlantic exist in July and August, which is why they are Slightly Above Average - Above Average.

3. The Top Analogs for 2017 are 1996, 2005, and 2010, and all these seasons saw at least 13 named storms, at least 9 hurricanes, and at least 5 major hurricanes in the Atlantic. For the Eastern Pacific, each of these seasons saw fewer than 16 named storms, fewer than 8 hurricanes, and all of them had exactly 2 majors.

WARNINGS
THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR SYSTEMS THIS YEAR ARE:

1. UNITED STATES GULF COAST

2. UNITED STATES EAST COAST

3. BAY OF CAMPECHE

2017 WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN LANDFALL, DAMAGE, DESTRUCTION, AND CASUALTIES.

PLEASE KEEP ALERT THIS SEASON, AND TAKE NECESSARY ACTION IF A SYSTEM IS COMING YOUR WAY.