National Usercane Center/Usercane Advisories

The National Usercane Center (NUC) is the branch of the BNWC that tracks usercanes.

These advisories will be updated once weekly on Fridays. However, in cases of drastic intensity changes, special advisories may be issued.

General Outlook
NATIONAL USERCANE CENTER 11:00 PM EDT JUNE 10, 2016

Weekly Update Friday, June 10, 2016

CURRENT STORMS: TROPICAL STORM STEVE, SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SJMAVEN, HURRICANE HYPE, HURRICANE RYNE, HURRICANE AZURE, HURRICANE LAYTEN, TROPICAL STORM BUMBLEBEE, HURRICANE ODILE, HURRICANE BOB, HURRICANE COLLIN, HURRICANE FLOYD, HURRICANE ANTHONY, HURRICANE KERANIQUE, HURRICANE DARREN, SUBTROPICAL STORM NUNO, HURRICANE ORLANDO, TROPICAL STORM JAMES, TROPICAL STORM JACK, TROPICAL STORM AARON, SUBTROPICAL STORM MARCUS, SUBTROPICAL STORM ALAN, TROPICAL STORM MINECRAFT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO

Public advisories on the above usercanes are listed below.

Additional usercane development is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$

Next full update on Wednesday, June 15, 2016. In the meantime, special advisories will be issued if conditions warrant. ~FORECASTER BOB

2010 Storms
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SJMAVEN:

Subtropical Depression Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 25 KT (30 MPH), Minimum pressure: 1008 mbar Movement: STATIONARY

A closed circulation has developed in the remnants of Hurricane Sjmaven. The cyclone is producing winds of up to 30 mph, supporting an upgrade to subtropical depression status. Although the convection is not very deep, Subtropical Depression Sjmaven remains stationary west of the Azores.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID JUNE 2016......30 KT...35 MPH/SUBTROPICAL LATE JUNE 2016.....30 KT...35 MPH/SUBTROPICAL MID JULY 2016......35 KT...40 MPH/SUBTROPICAL LATE JULY 2016.....30 KT...40 MPH/SUBTROPICAL MID AUGUST 2016....30 KT...40 MPH/SUBTROPICAL LATE AUGUST 2016...35 KT...40 MPH/SUBTROPICAL LATE SEPT. 2016....35 KT...40 MPH/SUBTROPICAL

2011 Storms
No 2011 storms are currently active.

2012 Storms
MAJOR HURRICANE STEVE (SPECIAL ADVISORY):

Category 4 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 115 KT (130 MPH), Minimum pressure: 950 mbar Movement: S 1 MPH

Steve has undergone explosive intensification as a pinhole eye is present. Steve's pressure has fallen from 990 to 950 mbar in the past three days. A recon flight was able to locate surface winds of at least 115 kt, supporting an upgrade of Steve's winds to 115 kt. Again, this could be conservative, as the storm is explosively intensifying. Steve's intensification should slow down immediately after this advisory, however.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID JUNE 2016.....115 KT...135 MPH LATE JUNE 2016....120 KT...140 MPH MID JULY 2016.....125 KT...145 MPH LATE JULY 2016....125 KT...145 MPH MID AUGUST 2016...130 KT...150 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016..135 KT...155 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016...140 KT...160 MPH Remnants of RARA:

Remnants Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 25 KT (30 MPH), Minimum pressure: 1007 mbar Movement: N 3 MPH

Subtropical Depression Rara has degenerated into a trough of low pressure. Regeneration is possible, but not extremely likely.

Remnants of COBRA:
 * Regeneration chance within 1 week...low...20 percent
 * Regeneration chance within 1 month...low...30 percent

Remnants Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 25 KT (30 MPH), Minimum pressure: 1010 mbar Movement: NW 2 MPH

Subtropical Depression Cobra has degenerated into a trough of low pressure. Like Rara, regeneration is possible, but not extremely likely.


 * Regeneration chance within 1 week...low...20 percent
 * Regeneration chance within 1 month...low...30 percent

2013 Storms
MAJOR HURRICANE HYPE:

Category 5 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 175 KT (200 MPH), Minimum pressure: 868 mbar Movement: NNE 2 MPH

Hype has not changed in organization since the previous advisory, so we have left its forecast trajectory the same as a result. However, we have lowered its pressure by 1 mbar. Hype is moving NNE at 2 MPH, and is currently located to the northwest of Bermuda. Hype continues to be the only 200 mph storm on record...

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID JUNE 2016......175 KT...200 MPH LATE JUNE 2016.....180 KT...205 MPH MID JULY 2016......180 KT...205 MPH LATE JULY 2016.....175 KT...200 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...175 KT...200 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....170 KT...195 MPH

HURRICANE RYNE:

Category 4 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 120 KT (140 MPH), Minimum pressure: 935 mbar Movement: NNE 1 MPH

A burst of deep convection has developed the center of Hurricane Ryne. As a result, we have raised our estimate of intensity to 120 kt. This could be conservative, as evidenced by HTMC, which has Ryne at 130 kt. Ryne continues to slowly move NNE in the subtropical Atlantic near Bermuda.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID JUNE 2016......120 KT...140 MPH LATE JUNE 2016.....125 KT...145 MPH MID JULY 2016......125 KT...145 MPH LATE JULY 2016.....130 KT...150 MPH MID AUGUST 2016....130 KT...150 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...130 KT...150 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....135 KT...155 MPH

2014 Storms
MAJOR HURRICANE AZURE (SPECIAL ADVISORY):

Category 4 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 115 KT (130 MPH), Minimum pressure: 954 mbar Movement: STATIONARY

A recon flight identified surface winds of at least 115 kt on its way out. In response, we have upgraded Azure to category 4 status. Azure has explosively intensified from category 2 to category 4 since the last advisory as it meanders near the Azores. We expect Azure to continue to slowly intensify over the coming months, which has improved substantially in organization in recent weeks. Azure has developed a well-defined eyewall. Azure remains stationary near the Azores.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID JUNE 2016.....115 KT...130 MPH LATE JUNE 2016....115 KT...130 MPH MID JULY 2016.....115 KT...130 MPH LATE JULY 2016....115 KT...130 MPH MID AUGUST 2016...120 KT...140 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016..120 KT...140 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016...120 KT...140 MPH MAJOR HURRICANE LAYTEN:

Category 4 Usercane Maximum sustained winds: 115 KT (130 MPH), Minimum pressure: 941 mbar Movement: NE 1 MPH

Hurricane Layten has stalled out in intensity. Strong wind shear in upcoming weeks is expected to expose Layten's circulation, causing the circulation to open up into a trough. Layten is currently located near Bermuda, south of Hurricane Hype, and continues to move NE at 1 MPH. However, warming waters from the Gulf Stream should allow Layten to regain its circulation and intensify slightly by Fall 2016.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID JUNE 2016......115 KT...130 MPH LATE JUNE 2016.....115 KT...130 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW MID JULY 2016......115 KT...130 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW LATE JULY 2016.....115 KT...130 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW MID AUGUST 2016....115 KT...130 MPH/HURRICANE LATE AUGUST 2016...120 KT...140 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....125 KT...145 MPH TROPICAL STORM BUMBLEBEE:

Tropical Storm Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 55 KT (65 MPH), Minimum pressure: 988 mbar Movement: STATIONARY

Bumblebee has stalled out in the central Atlantic. The storm is not expected to move in the coming months, and no intensity change is predicted. This advisory is the same as the previous one due to no change in intensity.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID JUNE 2016........55 KT...65 MPH LATE JUNE 2016.......55 KT...65 MPH MID JULY 2016........55 KT...65 MPH LATE JULY 2016.......55 KT...65 MPH MID AUGUST 2016......55 KT...65 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016.....55 KT...65 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016......55 KT...65 MPH

2015 Storms
MAJOR HURRICANE ODILE:

Category 4 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 125 KT (145 MPH), Minimum pressure: 938 mbar Movement: W 2 MPH

Hurricane Odile has changed little in organization since the last advisory. Odile is currently located west of the Canary Islands moving westward at 2 mph. Odile is expected to maintain category 4 intensity at this time, however, as it is expected to enter an area with lower wind shear in the later part of the forecast. Category 5 intensity is currently not predicted by most models, however, the CMC model does bring Odile to this status. As a result of no reported intensity change this advisory is the same as the previous one.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID JUNE 2016......125 KT...145 MPH LATE JUNE 2016.....125 KT...145 MPH MID JULY 2016......125 KT...145 MPH LATE JULY 2016.....125 KT...145 MPH MID AUGUST 2016....130 KT...150 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...130 KT...150 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....130 KT...150 MPH MAJOR HURRICANE BOB:

Category 5 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 145 KT (165 MPH), Minimum pressure: 912 mbar Movement: WNW 1 MPH

(No advisories due to storm being own usercane) MAJOR HURRICANE FLOYD (SPECIAL ADVISORY)

Category 5 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 140 KT (160 MPH), Minimum pressure: 920 mbar Movement: NW 1 MPH

Due to a recon flight observing surface winds of at least 140 kt, Floyd has been upgraded to category 5 status as it moves slowly northwestward in the central Atlantic. Intensification should continue with Floyd through the next few months; however, cooler sea surface temperatures may cause Floyd to begin its extratropical transition by December.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID JUNE 2016......140 KT...160 MPH LATE JUNE 2016.....140 KT...160 MPH MID JULY 2016......145 KT...165 MPH LATE JULY 2016.....145 KT...165 MPH MID AUGUST 2016....145 KT...165 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...150 KT...175 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....150 KT...175 MPH MAJOR HURRICANE COLLIN:

Category 4 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 115 KT (130 MPH), Minimum pressure: 941 mbar Movement: NW 1 MPH

Hurricane Collin remains a category 4 usercane, but has produced little deep convection in recent days. As a result of the reduced deep convection, we have lowered our forecast slightly. Nonetheless, we expect Collin to retain category 4 intensity.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID JUNE 2016.......115 KT...130 MPH LATE JUNE 2016......115 KT...130 MPH MID JULY 2016.......115 KT...130 MPH LATE JULY 2016......115 KT...130 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016....115 KT...130 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016....120 KT...140 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016.....120 KT...140 MPH TROPICAL STORM WILLY:

Tropical Storm Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 45 KT (50 MPH), Minimum pressure: 997 mbar Movement: Stationary

Tropical Storm Willy has stalled in the open Atlantic and is currently stationary between Cape Verde and the Azores. We do not expect an intensity change with the system. Due to no reported change in organization, this advisory is the same as the previous one.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID JUNE 2016.......45 KT...50 MPH LATE JUNE 2016......45 KT...50 MPH MID JULY 2016.......45 KT...50 MPH LATE JULY 2016......45 KT...50 MPH MID AUGUST 2016.....45 KT...50 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016....45 KT...50 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016.....45 KT...50 MPH

MAJOR HURRICANE ANTHONY:

Category 5 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 145 KT (165 MPH), Minimum pressure: 924 mbar Movement: WNW 1 MPH

Hurricane Anthony appears to be exiting its eyewall replacement cycle due to a new eyewall developing. In addition, we have increased Anthony's intensity back up to 145 kt. Anthony remains located about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and Cape Verde and is moving west-northwestward at 1 MPH. We are very confident that Anthony will remain a category 5 usercane throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID JUNE 2016......145 KT...165 MPH LATE JUNE 2016.....145 KT...165 MPH MID JULY 2016......145 KT...165 MPH LATE JULY 2016.....145 KT...165 MPH MID AUGUST 2016....150 KT...175 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...150 KT...175 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....150 KT...175 MPH HURRICANE JACK (SPECIAL ADVISORY):

Category 1 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 65 KT (75 MPH), Minimum pressure: 990 mbar Movement: W 1 MPH

Tropical Storm Jack has unexpectedly intensified into a category 1 hurricane. Jack continues to move slowly in the eastern Caribbean at 1 MPH. A ragged eye is present on satellite imagery. Jack should continue to intensify over the coming months, with forecasts pointing to a new peak intensity by September.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID JUNE 2016......65 KT...75 MPH LATE JUNE 2016.....70 KT...80 MPH MID JULY 2016......75 KT...85 MPH LATE JULY 2016.....80 KT...90 MPH MID AUGUST 2016....85 KT...100 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...90 KT...105 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016...100 KT...115 MPH SUBTROPICAL STORM ALAN:

Subtropical Storm Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 40 KT (45 MPH), Minimum pressure: 997 mbar Movement: NE 1 MPH

Subtropical Storm Alan remains active about 100 miles off the coast of Virginia. Alan has not produced deep convection in recent days, and we have slightly lowered our forecast as a result. However, uncertainty remains.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID JUNE 2016......40 KT...45 MPH/SUBTROPICAL LATE JUNE 2016.....40 KT...45 MPH/SUBTROPICAL MID JULY 2016......40 KT...45 MPH/SUBTROPICAL LATE JULY 2016.....45 KT...50 MPH/SUBTROPICAL MID AUGUST 2016....45 KT...50 MPH/TROPICAL LATE AUGUST 2016...45 KT...50 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....50 KT...60 MPH SUBTROPICAL STORM MARCUS:

Subtropical Storm Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 45 KT (50 MPH), Minimum pressure: 982 mbar Movement: NE 1 MPH

Subtropical Storm Marcus has improved slightly in organization since the last advisory. Intensification should be limited at first...however, many models show the storm intensifying into a weak hurricane towards the middle of the forecast period. Considerable uncertainty remains as the regenerated storm moves very slowly northeastward at 1 mph.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID JUNE 2016......45 KT...50 MPH LATE JUNE 2016.....45 KT...50 MPH MID JULY 2016......50 KT...60 MPH LATE JULY 2016.....60 KT...70 MPH MID AUGUST 2016....65 KT...75 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...70 KT...80 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....80 KT...90 MPH

TROPICAL STORM AARON:

Tropical Storm Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 45 KT (50 MPH), Minimum pressure: 1001 mbar Movement: W 1 MPH

Aaron has improved in organization in recent days as convection has built around the center. We expect continued intensification with Aaron, which could become a hurricane late in the forecast period. Aaron is moving slowly 1 mph westward in the western Caribbean Sea.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID JUNE 2016......45 KT...50 MPH LATE JUNE 2016.....45 KT...50 MPH MID JULY 2016......50 KT...60 MPH LATE JULY 2016.....55 KT...65 MPH MID AUGUST 2016....65 KT...75 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...65 KT...75 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....70 KT...80 MPH

2016 Storms
MAJOR HURRICANE KERANIQUE:

Category 4 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 120 KT (140 MPH), minimum pressure: 937 mbar Movement: W 1 MPH

An ASCAT pass revealed the presence of three 120-knot vectors in the southeastern quadrant of Keranique. As a result, we have upgraded Keranique's intensity to 120 knot. Slow intensification is still expected throughout Keranique's track, with models expecting the system to become a strong category 4 hurricane by the end of the forecast period.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID JUNE 2016......120 KT...140 MPH LATE JUNE 2016.....120 KT...140 MPH MID JULY 2016......125 KT...145 MPH LATE JULY 2016.....125 KT...145 MPH MID AUGUST 2016....125 KT...145 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...130 KT...150 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....130 KT...150 MPH MAJOR HURRICANE DARREN:

Category 3 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 105 KT (120 MPH), minimum pressure: 951 mbar Movement: S 1 MPH

Hurricane DARREN continues to improve in organization. A well-defined eye has appeared on satellite imagery, as the system moves slowly southward into the Bahamas. Due to low wind shear and warm waters, we continue to expect intensification from Darren over the coming months, with category 4 intensity likely late in the forecast period.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID JUNE 2016......105 KT...120 MPH LATE JUNE 2016.....105 KT...120 MPH MID JULY 2016......110 KT...125 MPH LATE JULY 2016.....110 KT...125 MPH MID AUGUST 2016....115 KT...130 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...115 KT...130 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....120 KT...140 MPH Remnants of PEARL:

Remnants Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 30 KT (35 MPH), Minimum pressure: 1010 mbar Movement: NW 3 MPH

Tropical Depression Pearl has degenerated into a trough of low pressure in the eastern Subtropical Atlantic. Regeneration is possible, but not extremely likely.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:


 * Regeneration chance within 1 week...low...30 percent
 * Regeneration chance within 1 month...medium...40 percent

SUBTROPICAL STORM NUNO:

Subtropical Storm Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 45 KT (50 MPH), Minimum pressure: 994 mbar Movement: STATIONARY

Tropical Storm Nuno has been re-classified as a subtropical cyclone due to a hybrid appearance on satellite imagery. Nuno has become stationary near the Azores. We expect Nuno to remain subtropical for a month or two before regaining tropical characteristics eventually.

MID JUNE 2016........45 KT...50 MPH/SUBTROPICAL LATE JUNE 2016.......45 KT...50 MPH/SUBTROPICAL MID JULY 2016........45 KT...50 MPH/SUBTROPICAL LATE JULY 2016.......45 KT...50 MPH/SUBTROPICAL mid AUGUST 2016..,...50 KT...60 MPH/TROPICAL LATE AUGUST 2016.....50 KT...60 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016......55 KT...65 MPH SUBTROPICAL STORM CALLUM:

Subtropical Storm Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 35 KT (40 MPH), Minimum pressure: 1005 mbar Movement: STATIONARY

Callum remains a subtropical storm as of this advisory. Callum has stalled out in the central Atlantic near Bermuda east of Hurricane Hype, and is currently stationary. No change in intensity is predicted, and this advisory is the same as the previous one.

MID JUNE 2016........35 KT...40 MPH/SUBTROPICAL LATE JUNE 2016.......35 KT...40 MPH/SUBTROPICAL MID JULY 2016........35 KT...40 MPH/SUBTROPICAL LATE JULY 2016.......35 KT...40 MPH/SUBTROPICAL MID AUGUST 2016......35 KT...40 MPH/SUBTROPICAL LATE AUGUST 2016.....35 KT...40 MPH/SUBTROPICAL LATE SEPT. 2016......35 KT...40 MPH/SUBTROPICAL Remnants of LANCE:

Remnants Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 25 KT (30 MPH), Minimum pressure: 1011 mbar Movement: NNW 3 MPH

Tropical Depression Lance has opened up into a trough of low pressure northwest of the Lesser Antilles. Regeneration is possible, but not extremely likely.


 * Regeneration chance within 1 week...low...30 percent
 * Regeneration chance within 1 month...medium...40 percent

HURRICANE JAMES (SPECIAL ADVISORY):

Category 1 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 65 KT (75 MPH), Minimum pressure: 986 mbar Movement: W 1 MPH

Tropical Storm James has intensified into a hurricane. A small eye remains now visible on satellite imagery, as the storm is located about 200 miles southeast of Cape Verde. Due to low wind shear and warm waters, we expect James to steadily intensify into a stronger hurricane over the coming months. James has rapidly grown in size.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID JUNE 2016......65 KT...75 MPH LATE JUNE 2016.....70 KT...80 MPH MID JULY 2016......75 KT...85 MPH LATE JULY 2016.....80 KT...90 MPH MID AUGUST 2016....85 KT...100 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...95 KT...110 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016...100 KT...115 MPH HURRICANE ORLANDO:

Category 1 Usercane Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 75 KT (85 MPH), Minimum pressure: 982 mbar Movement: WNW 1 MPH

Hurricane Orlando has intensified slightly since last week. An eye is developing as reported on satellite imagery. Orlando is moving slowly WNW at 1 MPH in the eastern Tropical Atlantic just south of Cape Verde. We continue to expect Orlando to intensify further.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID JUNE 2016......75 KT...85 MPH LATE JUNE 2016.....80 KT...90 MPH MID JULY 2016......85 KT...100 MPH LATE JULY 2016.....90 KT...105 MPH MID AUGUST 2016....90 KT...105 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...95 KT...110 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016...105 KT...120 MPH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY:

Tropical Depression Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 30 KT (35 MPH), Minimum pressure: 1009 mbar Movement: STATIONARY

Tropical Depression Twenty has not improved in organization over the past two days. As a result, we have lowered its forecast trajectory a bit. Twenty remains stationary in the Bay of Campeche.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID JUNE 2016......30 KT...35 MPH LATE JUNE 2016.....35 KT...40 MPH MID JULY 2016......30 KT...35 MPH LATE JULY 2016.....30 KT...35 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW MID AUGUST 2016....30 KT...35 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW LATE AUGUST 2016...30 KT...35 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW LATE SEPT. 2016....30 KT...35 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW TROPICAL STORM MINECRAFT:

Tropical Storm Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 45 KT (50 MPH), Minimum pressure: 1002 mbar Movement: W 1 MPH

Tropical Storm Minecraft has intensified off the coast of Africa. Due to the storm rapidly expanding in size and low wind shear, we expect Minecraft to steadily intensify over the coming months. Hurricane intensity is possible late in the forecast period as Minecraft moves slowly westward 1 mph.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID JUNE 2016......45 KT...50 MPH LATE JUNE 2016.....45 KT...50 MPH MID JULY 2016......50 KT...60 MPH LATE JULY 2016.....60 KT...70 MPH MID AUGUST 2016....65 KT...75 MPH LATE AUGUST 2016...70 KT...80 MPH LATE SEPT. 2016....75 KT...85 MPH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO:

Tropical Depression Maximum 1-minute sustained winds: 25 KT (30 MPH), Minimum pressure: 1010 mbar Movement: N 1 MPH

A new tropical depression has developed in the northern Gulf of Mexico. This depression is moving northward towards land, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast. We expect Twenty-Two to briefly attain tropical storm intensity before weakening later in the forecast period.

FORECAST TRAJECTORY:

MID JUNE 2016......30 KT...35 MPH LATE JUNE 2016.....35 KT...40 MPH MID JULY 2016......30 KT...35 MPH LATE JULY 2016.....30 KT...35 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW MID AUGUST 2016....30 KT...35 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW LATE AUGUST 2016...30 KT...35 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW LATE SEPT. 2016....30 KT...35 MPH POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW