2031 Atlantic Hurricane Season (Lars - Future Series)

2031 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Overview
The 2031 North Atlantic Hurricane Season was a well above average season which began on March 20 and ended on December 24. The season saw several notable systems like Dallas, Fargo, Cosme-Jerrry, and Melissa. Melissa, in specific, made landfall in the Canary Islands, the first such storm to do so on record, where it caused 3 deaths. Dallas, Fargo, Cosme-Jerry, and Tony all were retired

Unnamed Subtropical Storm
On March 16, a front over the eastern Atlantic dissipated leaving behind a small scale extratropical cyclone. The extratropical system slowly moved east and then north-south of the Azores archipelago. On the 18th of March, the extratropical system entered a region 1-2C warmer than usual south of the Azores and began to slowly gather subtropical characteristics and by 12:00 UTC March 20, the system became a subtropical depression while situated 700 miles south of Flores Island, the westernmost island in the Azores archipelago. The system slowly moved north at a sluggish 6 mph and by 0:00 UTC March 21, the system made a turn for the northwest and also strengthened into a subtropical storm. The system continued to gradually move northwest south of the Azores and peaked at 6:00 March 23 with winds of 50 mph. It would maintain this intensity for the day but at 6:00 March 22, the system weakened to 50 mph as the ocean temperature slowly dropped due to upwelling. At 0:00 UTC March 24, the system moved out of the favorable environment altogether and began to weaken thereafter, and weakened to a 40 mph subtropical storm. At 18:00 March 24, the subtropical storm weakened to a subtropical depression and would maintain that intensity for the next 30 hours. After entering a hostile environment to the southwest of the Azores. The unnamed system degenerated into a remnant low at 0:00 UTC March 26 after dry air intruded into the system twelve hours earlier, killing the circulation. Its remains would fully dissipate 6 hours later.

Tropical Depression One
Tropical Depression One was a short-lived storm, having lasted less than a day. A tropical wave moved off of the coast of Africa on June 1. This wave, however, would only produce minimal convection as it steadily made its way into the Caribbean. The wave soon encountered a favourable environment in the Caribbean and soon developed into Tropical Depression One at 0:00 June 9, roughly 300 milessSouth of Port-au-Prince. The system moved quickly west to southwest throughout its life at a pace of about 21 mph. At 12:00 June 9, the nascent depression moved out of the favurable environment and into a hostile one, causing it to degenerate into a remnant low at 18:00 that same day. The remains would continue moving west before opening up into a trough at 6:00 the following day. The system's remains would cross over Nicaragua and Costa Rica and enter the East Pacific where it contributed to the formation of Tropical Storm Alvin on June 14.

Tropical Storm Andrea
On July 10, a front east of Bermuda dissipated, leading to the formation of a non-tropical low-pressure system southeast of Bermuda. The system quickly organized and at 6:00 UTC July 11, a tropical storm formed approximately 130 miles south-southeast of Bermuda. The storm quickly strengthened to its peak intensity of 45 mph and 1000 millibars while trekking northeast near Bermuda at about 9 mph and at 0:00 UTC July 12, the system began to merge with a front situated north of Bermuda and turned northwest and accelerated. The system merged with the front and became post-tropical at 12:00 July 12, a mere 30 hours after formation. The system killed one person in Bermuda.

Hurricane Barry
On August 3, a large area of thunderstorms in the central Caribbean split into two low-pressure systems; the left one in specific slowly organized throughout the next three days and developed into Tropical Storm Barry at 6:00 UTC August 6. The system continued organizing further and made landfall in Jamaica at 0:00 UTC August 7 as a 50 mph tropical storm. After landfall in Jamaica, the system turned northeast and made another landfall at Guantanamo, Cuba at 0:00 UTC the following day as a 60 mph system. At around 12:00 UTC the system re-emerged over water and took a more northerly track over warmer waters. At 6:00 UTC August 9, Barry intensified into a Category 1 hurricane over the Bahamas as it took a more northwest track due to an interaction with the precursor to Hurricane Chantal to the south. Barry would maintain hurricane status for 30 hours and would weaken back to a tropical storm due to land interaction shortly before landfall on Grand Bahama Island. The system would bottom out at 65 mph after re-emerging over water again. The system would make its final landfall 35 miles south of Cape Canaveral, Florida at 0:00 UTC August 11. Barry would weaken over land and weaken to a tropical depression at 18:00 UTC August 11. Barry would finally degenerate into a remnant low at 0:00 UTC August 12. Its remains would be steered northeast due to a passing front moving east. Barry's remains would be absorbed by said front at 18:00 UTC that day.

Hurricane Chantal
On August 3, the same large area of thunderstorms which spawned Barry split into two low- pressure systems. The easternmost one would slowly begin to develop but development was halted by August 5 when outflow from Barry began to inhibit development. However, as Barry began to move away starting August 9, wind shear began to decrease and the system quickly began to develop while situated south of Cuba. And by 6:00 UTC August 10, Tropical Depression Three formed roughly 130 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. The system steadily intensified and by 18:00 UTC August 10, it intensified into a tropical storm, receiving the name "Chantal". Interaction with Barry early on in its life led to Chantal moving little at a sluggish 5 mph in a partial anti-cyclonic loop. However, as Barry moved away and made landfall in Florida, Chantal began to accelerate northbound and soon intensified to 60 mph. At 18:00 UTC August 12, Chantal intensified into a Category 1 hurricane while located just 10 miles from the nearest bit of the Cuban coast. The system turned west and made landfall 6 hours later near Santiago de Cuba as a 75 mph hurricane. Chantal would re-emerge over water shortly after 12:00 UTC August 13 as a 60 mph system after traversing the rough terrain of Cuba. An oncoming front, the one that absorbed Barry, forced Chantal to make a north-eastward acceleration and Chantal re-intensified into a Category 1 hurricane at 0:00 UTC August 14 while passing through the Bahamas. The hurricane continued to rapidly accelerate at around 16 mph ahead of the approaching front over the open Atlantic. The hurricane continued strengthening and by 12:00 August 15, it intensified into a Category 2 hurricane as it was en route directly for Bermuda. Six hours later at 18:00 UTC, Chantal made landfall on Bermuda near peak intensity but quickly traversed across the mostly flat terrain. And by 0:00 August 16, it began to interact with the front it had been racing ahead from. Quickly afterward, at 12:00 UTC that day, Chantal weakened to a Category 1 as it underwent extratropical transition; a transition it would complete six hours later at 18:00 August 16. At the time of extratropical transition, Chantal was racing ahead at 46 mph situated roughly 630 miles south-southeast of Saint-Pierre, in Newfoundland. Its extratropical remains would continue northeast before turning north at around 0:00 UTC August 18, by which time it also had weakened below hurricane-force in terms of winds. nd turned back northeast by 12:00 UTC that day, head en course for an extratropical landfall in Iceland. Also at 0:00 UTC August 19, the system had weakened to a depression-force system. A landfall which would occur between 0:00 UTC August 19 and 6:00 UTC August 19 about 30 miles east of the nearest Icelandic town, Kirkjubæjarklaustur. It would dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Iceland shortly after 6:00 UTC August 19.

Hurricane Dallas
On August 9, a large area of cloudiness associated with a tropical wave that moved off of the coast of Africa situated roughly 200 miles west of the Azores formed and was noted by the NHC. The system slowly developed into a low-pressure system at 6:00 UTC August 10. The system continued to gradually organize and became Tropical Depression Four at 0:00 UTC August 11 while situated about 450 miles west of Porto Novo in the Cabo Verde. The system strengthened into a tropical storm just six hours later at 6:00 UTC and was given the name "Dallas". The system quickly organized under favorable conditions and strengthened into a hurricane at 0:00 UTC August 12. The system rapidly intensified into a category 2 hurricane just twelve hours later at 12:00 UTC. The warm waters of the Atlantic continued to fuel the system, allowing it to reach Category 3 status at 6:00 UTC August 13 and it hit Category 4 status 18 hours later at 0:00 UTC the following day. At 12:00 UTC that day, the system changed direction and made a jog to the northwest as a 140 mph system. However, the ocean heat content of the central Atlantic only allowed for a system of up to 155 mph. At 12:00 UTC August 15, the system, as a 145 mph system changed course and turned west due to an interaction with changing steering currents and the precursor to Erin. The system would reach its initial latitudinal peak at 0:00 UTC August 16 as a 150 mph system. Shortly after that time, the system made a turn to the southwest towards the Lesser Antilles, in which hurricane watches were put in effect for the northernmost islands. As it turned southwest it began to encounter lower wind shear and steadily warmer waters and began to slowly intensify. At 18:00 UTC August 16, the system intensified further into a 155 mph Category 4, hurricane warnings were promptly put into effect. The system became a Category 5 hurricane at 12:00 UTC August 17, while situated 140 miles northeast of Guadeloupe. The monstrous storm races southwest and made landfall in Guadeloupe as a 165 mph Category 5 hurricane at 0:00 UTC August 18. After making landfall in Guadeloupe, the system turned south while maintaining a wind speed of 165 mph. By 18:00 UTC August 18, the system turned southwest and quickly west while maintaining peak wind speeds. However, at 0:00 UTC August 19, Dallas had an eyewall replacement cycle causing it to weaken to 160 mph and down to a Category 4 by 18:00 UTC that day. Dallas would complete its eyewall replacement cycle by 0:00 UTC August 20, but the damage had been dealt and the increased wind shear in the western Caribbean took its toll on the system, causing it to weaken down to a Category 3 by 18:00 UTC that day. The storm reached its weakest as it passed a mere 85 miles from the Honduran coast as just a 120 mph system at 6:00 UTC August 21. A break from the shear allowed the hurricane to quickly intensify as it approached the Yucatán peninsula. Dallas would make landfall in the Yucatán peninsula near the town of Xcalak, about 35 miles Southeast of Chetumal, Mexico with winds of 140 mph at a little before 6:00 UTC August 22. The system would spend just shy of 24 hours over the Yucatán and thus land interaction eroded the system to a 100 mph Category 2. The system would emerge over the Gulf of Mexico at 0:00 UTC August 23 and slowly turned north upon emerging over water due to weak steering currents. The system barely intensified after the first 24 hours after re-emerging due to the upwelling caused by its slow movement. At 18:00 UTC August 23, the system began to speed up to the north and by 0:00 UTC August 24, it began to intensify while turning northwest towards the Texan coast. By 18:00 UTC that day Dallas became a major hurricane again, as a Category 3 hurricane. The system would steadily intensify and became a Category 4 at 18:00 UTC August 25 while situated 135 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas. The system would make landfall at 130 mph at 0:00 August 26 around 40 miles northeast of Corpus Christi while moving northwest at around 18 mph. Shortly after landfall, Dallas began to rapidly weaken, falling to Category 1 status by 6:00 UTC and bare minimum tropical storm status by 12:00 UTC that day. Finally, Dallas would degenerate into a depression-force remnant low by 18:00 UTC August 26. Its remains would continue advancing north and would dissipate at 6:00 UTC August 27 over northern Texas near the town of Lubbock.

Tropical Storm Erin
On 16 August, a large area of disorganized thunderstorms developed into a low pressure system about 500 miles northeast of the Bahamas. The system gradually organized and moved northwest and then west southeast of the Carolinas. Eventually the system formed a closed circulation and became Tropical Storm Erin at 6:00 UTC August 18 while positioned about 220 miles southeast of the nearest bit of North Carolinian coast with winds of 50 mph. The system slowly moved west at about 7 mph and stayed steady intensity-wise. The tropical storm then turned north at 0:00 UTC August 19 while still at 50 mph. As the system was trekking north, land interaction caused it weaken slightly before landfall shortly before 0:00 UTC August 20 in North Carolina near Jacksonville, North Carolina as a 45 mph system. The system weakened relatively quickly over the state and weakened to a depression at 6:00 UTC that day. At 12:00 UTC, the system turned east due to an interaction with the precursor to Gabrielle. The system re-emerged over water at 18:00 UTC that day as a tropical depression. However, it did not strengthened upon re-emerging due to colder waters and increased shear, the system struggled to survive, being operationally put as degenerating during this time, but post-analysis found that it barely had enough of a circulation to be still tropical. The system moved into a slightly more favourable environment at 0:00 UTC August 22 still as a depression. This environment favourable slight intensification and at 6:00 UTC, the tropical depression strengthened back into a tropical storm with winds of 40 mph while situated 325 miles east of Virginia Beach. During the first 24 hours of entering the slightly more favourable environment, the storm did not strengthen but starting at 12:00 UTC August 23, the wind shear over the system decreased substantially, which allowed the system to steadily strengthen further, but not by much. At 0:00 UTC August 24, the system peaked out at 50 mph as cooler SSTs took its toll on the system. These SSTs would cause Erin to degenerate into a remnant low at 12:00 UTC August 25 while situated 490 miles south-southeast of Halifax, Canada. Its remains steadily moves east and then southeast over the next 36 hours and began to strengthen and organize over warmer waters. However, as Gabrielle became a tropical cyclone, and Erin entered a Fujiwhara interaction with Gabrielle, the time left began to decrease. Erin's remnants re-organized back into a tropical cyclone at 6:00 UTC August 27 as a 60 mph system while situated 870 miles east of Virginia Beach but only 230 miles west of Gabrielle's center. The system quickly strengthened first to 65 mph at 12:00 UTC and peaking at 70 mph by 18:00 UTC that day. Shortly, after peaking though, with a mid-level eye developing, Gabrielle's outflow began to take its toll on the system as Erin was the smaller system. At 0:00 UTC August 28, Erin weakened to 60 mph and was situated a mere 180 miles west-northwest of Gabrielle's center. Shortly after 0:00 UTC though, Erin began to enter Gabrielle and merge with the system and by 6:00 UTC August 28, the system was at 50 mph and a mere 75 miles west-northwest of Gabrielle's center. The system began to be torn apart by Gabrielle's outflow and its circulation was killed; Erin was fully absorbed at 12:00 UTC August 28 as a 40 mph system and situated 60 miles west of Gabrielle's center.

Hurricane Fargo
Late on August 21, a tropical wave moved off of the coast of Africa. The wave would gradually organize over the following days while moving at a relatively slow pace across the eastern Atlantic. The system would develop a definable circulation and center and thus was designated Tropical Storm Fargo with winds of 40 mph while situated 160 miles southwest from the nearest Cabo Verde island at 12:00 UTC August 25. The system steadily intensified over a favorable environment while moving at a pace of about 9 mph. The system intensified into a hurricane at 12:00 UTC on August 26 while continuing to go in a westward direction. Fargo continued to steadily intensify over the east Atlantic and became a Category 2 at 0:00 UTC the following day. The system would continue gathering strength and intensified into a Category 3 major hurricane at 18:00 UTC August 27 over the eastern Atlantic. Fargo's stint of rapid intensification wouldn't end though as at 12:00 UTC August 28, Fargo intensified into a Category 4 hurricane over the central Atlantic. By 0:00 UTC August 29, the system reached its initial peak intensity of 150 mph before stagnating due to the fact the ocean SSTs could not support a stronger system. However, Fargo underwent an eyewall replacement cycle at 12:00 UTC that day, which caused it to weaken over the central Atlantic. Fargo would weaken to Category 3 status at 6:00 UTC August 30 with winds of 125 mph while situated 620 miles east of Barbados, 6 hours after the completion of the eyewall replacement cycle. The cyclone began to gain strength again and re-intensified into a Category 4 hurricane at 18:00 UTC August 30. The system steadily moved over warmer waters at about 16 mph and steadily intensified as a bare minimum Category 4. The system began to rapidly intensify as it approached Barbados and made landfall in Barbados with winds of 140 mph at 12:00 UTC August 31. It would then make landfall in St. Vincent and the Grenadines at 18:00 UTC August 31 as a 155 mph system where it caused great damage. The SSTs could not sustain such a strong system and thus Fargo would maintain its intensity into September 1. In combination with cooler SSTs and an eyewall replacement cycle, Fargo would begin to weaken as it raced across the Caribbean at around the same speed (16 mph). The system would reach its weakest at its closest approach to the South American continent at 0:00 UTC September 2 with winds at 130 mph just 70 miles north from the northernmost tip of South America. It would finish the eyewall replacement cycle a while back at 18:00 UTC September 1 and begin to rapidly intensify over the very warm waters near Nicaragua and Honduras. By 12:00 UTC September 2, the system had strengthened into a 150 mph storm and it became clear the storm would be very much like Mitch of 1998. At 0:00 UTC September 3, located 230 miles east-southeast of Port Cabezas in Nicaragua, Fargo intensified into a 160 mph Category 5 hurricane. The system continued to organize further and looked "very impressive on both infrared and satellite imagery as it began to develop a pinhole eye" one NHC forecaster noted and at 6:00 UTC September 3, Fargo intensified into a 175 mph, 908 millibar behemoth en course for Honduras as the system made a shift for a northwestwards turn. At 12:00 UTC September 3, Fargo made landfall at peak intensity near the town of Iralaya near the border between Nicaragua and Honduras. It would also absorb Cosme-Jerry at 18:00 UTC September 3 as a 130 mph Category 4. The system's structure quickly shrank and deteriorated as it would go on over Honduras as it caused catastrophic damage in Honduras and Nicaragua. The system would quickly weaken as it moved over land, weakening to a Tropical Storm at 12:00 UTC on September 4 while moving at around 10 mph. At the time of it weakening to a tropical storm, the system had a larger north side than any other and this interaction with the water due to its relatively close proximity to the water allowed to maintain a general intensity of 50 mph which it had weakened to at 18:00 UTC September 4. After becoming a Tropical Storm though, the system's motion slowed down to 7 mph as it trekked across northern Honduras and into southeastern Guatemala. The system would make its closest approach to a large water source at 12:00 UTC September 5 while passing over Lake Izabal in eastern Guatemala. The system proceeded to move further away from water and therefore began to weaken to a 40 mph Tropical Storm as it creeped out of Guatemala at a slow 6 mph. The system continued to accelerate to a faster speed across the Yucatán peninsula and by 18:00 UTC September 6, Fargo had weakened to a Tropical Depression while situated on the Mexico-Guatemala border roughly 20 miles south-southeast of Tenosique, Mexico. The system then shifted from a northwards motion to a northwest motion and emerged over water at 12:00 UTC September 7 as a 35 mph Tropical Depression as a bare minimum tropical cyclone. Six hours after re-emerging, at 18:00 UTC that day, the system quickly re-organized itself and once again became a Tropical Storm with winds of 40 mph as it continued to trek northwest. Fargo would continue to steadily intensify over conducive conditions and made landfall in the eastern region of the Laguna Tamiahua area near the Mexican town of Agua Dulce as a 60 mph Tropical Storm at 6:00 UTC September 9. The system made a rapid shift north due to a center reformation and made landfall at 12:00 UTC that day, a mere 6 hours later near the Mexican town Rancho de Piedra as a 50 mph system, weakened from land interaction as it paralleled the Mexican coast after its first landfall in Mexico. After landfall, the system turned west again and rapidly weakened. It was downgraded to a Tropical Depression at 18:00 UTC September 9 and was finally downgraded to a remnant low at 6:00 UTC September 10 near the town of Mathura. Fargo's remains would dissipate 6 hours later over the mountainous terrain of Mexico.

Fargo's passage over Honduras, Guatemala, and Nicaragua caused catastrophic damages directly killing 2,745 people directly during its journey over Nicaragua and Honduras especially. However, the tremendous amount of rain dumped by Fargo caused many, massive landslides which killed 9,087 people of which over 150 died when a mudslide completely submerged an entire small town in mud at around 0:00 UTC September 4. Indirectly from the hurricane, a mudslide from the hurricane triggered the eruption of Mt. Masaya volcano in central Nicaragua who killed 904 people, of which 781 were killed from lahars which impacted the neighboring regions.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle
At 0:00 UTC August 26, an extratropical cyclone moving southeast developed into an area of low pressure. The system steadily weakened as it made a tropical transition, going from a hurricane-force low-pressure system to just a 45 mph one at the time of cyclogenesis. The system, as noted earlier, developed into Tropical Storm Gabrielle at 18:00 UTC August 26 located 600 miles south of Saint-Pierre in Newfoundland. The system formed at peak intensity