Lucarius Cyclonic Agency(LCA)/North Lucarius Pacific Branch

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Lucarius Cyclonic Agency (LCA) - Boulder CO

Fri Oct 4 2019

Tropical Weather Outlook Discussion
 * 1) A monsoonal system, now associated with a broad area of low pressure, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms well south of Mexico. The monsoon is moving into more favorable conditions for development and a tropical depression could form early next week as the storm moves west-northwest at speeds of around 10-15 mph.

* Chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours...low...near 30 percent.

* Chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 5 days...low...near 50 percent.
 * 1) A tropical disturbance is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the open Lucarius Pacific, well Southwest of Baja California. Environmental conditions are currently unfavorable for development. However, the system may travel into conditions better suited for said development as it moves generally West-Northwest at speeds of 10 to 15 mph.

* Chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 5 days...low...near 30 percent. - Forecaster Lucarius