User blog:Bobnekaro/Bell and Candle Dissipate, Polar Storm Donner intensifying

Bob Nekaro, BNWC CEO & Chief Meteorologist 

Polar Cyclone Bell and Polar Storm Candle both fell victim to wind shear today, as they both have become weak post-polar systems. However, we are continuing to track the intensifying Polar Storm Donner, located near Russia. Donner currently has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and a minimum pressure of 986 millibars. Donner is expected to intensify some more, possibly into a Weak Polar Cyclone, before it makes landfall in Russia.

Meanwhile, we continue to track a few invests in the Arctic Ocean. Most notably is Invest 94N, which is forming near Greenland. 94N appears to already have Polar Storm-force winds, but it still lacks a cold core, so we cannot classify it as a polar or subpolar cyclone at this time. However, the core of 94N is cooling, and its pressure has fallen to 988 millibars. We estimate that this system has a near 100% chance of formation, and all models are predicting the system to be a polar storm or polar cyclone by tomorrow. The GFS model predicts that this low will get down to 951 millibars in pressure, which could be a major polar cyclone.

We're also tracking a polar wave (Invest 93N) moving off the coast of Russia. This wave is expected to be upgraded to Polar Storm Fir tomorrow. We give this system an 80% chance of polar cyclongenesis.

Finally, a new polar wave, designated Invest 96N, is expected to move off the coast of Canada on Friday or Saturday. This system could also become a major polar cyclone, as the GFS predicts its pressure will drop to 958 millibars by Saturday or Sunday. We give this system a 40% chance of development within the next 5 days, although some models indiciate that this could be a conservative estimate.