Talk:2013 Pacific hurricane season/@comment-4074533-20130729201513/@comment-4074533-20131109231940

Update #1: Kiko was upgraded to a hurricane, but my prediction was still a great overestimate.

Update #2: Flossie's pressure was lowered to 994 mbar, but it still was 6 mbar higher than forecast.

Lorena was definitely weaker than my forecast. It peaked 25 mph and 15 mbar lower than my prediction, and unlike my prediction, formed near Mexico.

Manuel also was a big bust prediction. It lasted five days longer than my prediction and caused a much greater impact than I ever anticipated, as well as becoming a hurricane.

Narda was somewhat close to the actual thing. The real McCoy reached 65 mph, lasted four days, and stayed out at sea. But my storm was 7 mbar stronger than the real Narda.

Octave was also close to an extent as well. I overestimated its winds by 5 mph, went 18 mbar above the gun, and did not anticipate the Mexico landfall it did.

I think I can safely say I switched Priscilla and Raymond. I thought Priscilla would be the major hurricane affecting Mexico and Raymond would be the epic fail. Well, Priscilla only made it to 45 mph/1001 mbar, but Raymond imploded to 125 mph/949 mbar, becoming the first major of the real season. Reverse psychology must have happened here.

Sonia was stronger than I thought. My prediction called for 70 mph/984 mbar, but the real storm was 25 mph and 19 mbar weaker, lasted three days shorter, and also made landfall over Mexico.

All in all, I sort of expected the lack of intensity this season, but it happened in a different way than what I foresaw.