Bob Nekaro Weather Center/Arctic Cyclone Outlook

000 ABNT20 KBNWC 242328 PWONP

SPECIAL POLAR WEATHER OUTLOOK BOB NEKARO WEATHER CENTER RALEIGH, NC 3:20 PM EDT FRI OCT 7, 2016

For the Arctic basin:

A broad area of low pressure has developed in the southern Hudson Bay. Thundersnow activity is currently limited with the system. However, pressures have fallen substantially according to buoy reports. Conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for development, and a polar deperession or storm could form over the next few days as the low pressure system moves northward or north-northwestward into the central Hudson Bay. A BNWC Cyclone Hunters reconaissance aircraft is scheduled to visit this system tomorrow, if necessary. The cyclone, should development occur, is then likely to strengthen slightly as it moves north or north-northwestward through into the central Hudson Bay. The next special polar weather outlook on this system will be issued by 11:00 PM EDT tonight. Interests in the Hudson Bay should monitor the progress of this system.


 * Formation chance within 48 hours...low...30 percent
 * Formation chance within 5 days...high...70 percent

$$ Forecaster Bob