GFS runs: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2021050412&fh=108, https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2021050406&fh=114, https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2021050400&fh=120, https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2021050318&fh=126
As of now, four consecutive GFS runs have shown a Pacific tropical storm hurricane forming off the coast of Mexico next text. The latest run of the GFS shows the system peaking at 964 millibars, which is borderline major hurricane intensity. This would be historic, for from what I have checked, there has never been a major hurricane that formed in the Eastern Pacific in early May.
The hurricane is expected to form in the Pacific on May 7. The next day, it is expected to attain hurricane status. On May 9 at 06:00 Zulu time, the hurricane is likely to attain major hurricane status. On May 10, the system will likely make landfall in Mexico at tropical storm intensity where it will dissipate.
Current forecast of the future hurricane according to the latest GFS run:
2021-05-07 06:00: 1009 mb (TD)
2021-05-07 12:00: 1003 mb (TS)
2021-05-07 18:00: 1003 mb (TS)
2021-05-08 00:00: 996 mb (TS)
2021-05-08 06:00: 997 mb (TS)
2021-05-08 12:00: 987 mb (H)
2021-05-08 18:00: 986 mb (H)
2021-05-09 00:00: 982 mb (H)
2021-05-09 06:00: 964 mb (MH)
2021-05-09 12:00: 985 mb (H)
2021-05-09 18:00: 990 mb (H)
2021-05-10 00:00: 988 mb (H)
2021-05-10 06:00: 991 mb (H)
2021-05-10 12:00: 995 mb (TS)
2021-05-10 18:00: 999 mb (TS) (landfall)
This night at 8:00 PM EDT, I expect the NHC to issue Tropical Weather Outlooks on this system. It looks like the forecasters there have not mentioned this future system in their Tropical Weather Discussions, but I am convinced they will very soon.
If this major hurricane forms, which is very possible given the evidence, it could be a bellwether as to how the East Pacific Season goes. A major hurricane in early May has never been seen in the East Pacific before, so such a system could be an indication that the peak season for the East Pacific will be quite active.