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Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki
Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki

The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season is a current event the the Atlantic basin.

Advisories on current storms can be found here

Season Forecasts[]

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2016 season
Source Date Named
storms
Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
Average (1981–2010) 12.1 6.4 2.7
Record high activity 28 15 7
Record low activity 4 2 0
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
ICON  May 15, 2016 12 8 3
ICON (Revised)  July 1, 2016 12 4 1
ICON (Revised)  August 15, 2016 18 10 4
BNWC  September 4, 2016 17 9 5
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Actual activity
8 6 2
* June–November only.
† Most recent of several such occurrences. (see all)

Season Summary[]

June[]

June showed extremely low activity, with only one tropical depression and once tropical disturbance in the whole month. Tropical Depression 1 formed early on June 6 roughly 600 miles north west of Cape Verde. The storm began to move north before turning extratropical on June 7. Invest 92L moved off of Cape Verde on June 22 but dissipated 4 days later.

July[]

Along with June, July was also very inactive. Only one tropical depression occurred in the whole month. On July 3, tropical depression 2 formed south of Bermuda and began moving west. The depression struggled to gain intensity and dissipated on July 6.

August[]

September[]

Timeline[]

Matthew (C3)Karl (TS)Julia (C1)Ian (C5)Hermine (C4)Gaston (C1)Earl (C2)Danielle (C1)Hurricane Colin 2016 (DarrenDude)Hurricane Alex 2016 (DarrenDude's version)Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Storms[]

Tropical Depression 1[]

Tropical depression (SSHWS)
Tropical Storm Otto 2004 Tropical Depression 1 2016 Track
DurationJune 6th – June 7th
Peak intensity55 km/h (35 mph) (1-min) 1007 hPa (mbar)

Tropical Depression 2[]

Tropical depression (SSHWS)
Two 2014 Tropical Depression 2016 Track
DurationJuly 3rd – July 6th
Peak intensity45 km/h (30 mph) (1-min) 1009 hPa (mbar)

Hurricane Alex[]

Category 3 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
HurricaneAlexdarrensversion Hurricane Alex 2016 Darren Track
DurationAugust 8th – August 14th
Peak intensity185 km/h (115 mph) (1-min) 960 hPa (mbar)

Main Article: Hurricane Alex 2016

On August 6, an area of disturbed weather associated with a low began developing ESE of the general Bahamas region. On August 7 ICON initially gave the low pressure system a 20% chance of development, but later changed that forecast to 80% on the same day. The low began to fire convection as it slowly moved west. 35 mph sustained winds where recorded, making this storm a tropical depression on August 8, the 3rd of the season. The storm continued to strengthen and became tropical storm Alex on the same day, the first named storm of the season. Alex began to enter the Bahamas, creating rough surf and heavy rains. The warm waters in the Bahamas region allowed Alex to rapidly intensify into a hurricane later on August 9. Warning and watches were issued in many parts of the Bahamas, as well as southern parts of Florida. Alex gained category 2 hurricane status during the last advisory on August 9, bringing more damage and destruction to the Bahamas.

Alex began to head for the Miami-Dade county, a heavily populated area in Florida, where evacuations where already underway. Alex continued to intensify after nightfall, bringing rough surf to Florida before the outer bands began to hit. Sustained wind speeds of 115 mph where recorded during the 8 AM ET advisory in August 10, bringing Alex to category 3 intensity briefly before landfall. Alex made landfall at approximately 8.21 AM roughly 50 miles South of Miami. The eyewall of Alex passed directly through Miami and the Miami metro area, causing severe wind damage and 10 foot storm surge. Alex continued to bring heavy rains to Florida after landfall, weakening to a category 1 hurricane. Alex entered the gulf of mexico and briefly weakened to a tropical storm before strengthening to a category 1 hurricane. Alex made landfall as a category 1 hurricane in Alabama on August 11. Alex weakened quickly after landfall and dissipated completely later onghe same day. In all, Alex caused roughly 873 million dollars in damages in Miami and 70 million dollars in damages in the Bahamas. 21 people died in the Bahamas and 22 died in Florida from Alex. On person died in Alabama from the storm. 9 people died indirectly from Alex.

Tropical Storm Bonnie[]

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
Vera 2029 Tropical Storm Bonnie 2016 Track
DurationAugust 13th – August 23rd
Peak intensity100 km/h (65 mph) (1-min) 992 hPa (mbar)

Hurricane Colin[]

Category 4 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
Category4Colin Hurricane Colin 2016 Track
DurationAugust 14th – August 21st
Peak intensity240 km/h (150 mph) (1-min) 932 hPa (mbar)


On August 13, an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Bahamas became invested. The storm was predicted to enter the gulf of mexico, were recorded warm water temperatures were expected to promote intensification. On August 14, this low became Tropical Depression 5, and on the same day, it became Tropical Storm Colin, the 3rd named storm of the season. On August 15, Colin continued to move west between Florida and Cuba, bringing heavy rains and wind to parts of the Florida keys. On August 16, winds of 65 KT were recorded in Colin, upgrading Colin to a category 1 hurricane. Colin was predicted to head north west after entering the gulf of mexico, possibly making landfall in Louisiana/Mississippi as a major hurricane.

On August 17, Colin strengthened to a category 2 hurricane upon entering the GoM. In addition it began to head north west. Early precautions were taken on August 17 in New Orleans and Gulfport, before voluntary evacuations began later in the day in those areas. On August 18, Colin Strengthened into a a category 3 hurricane, and began to increase in speed. Mandatory evacuations began in Louisiana and Mississippi. On August 19, Colin strengthened into a category 4 hurricane as it became imminent that Colin was going to hit New Orleans and Gulfport. Colin made landfall west of Gulfport Mississippi on August 20, as a 150 mph category 4 hurricane. Storm surge from lake Pontchartrain swept though New Orleans similarly to how it did during Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Storm surge also occurred in parts of eastern Mississippi and eastern Alabama. Colin quickly weakened upomn landfall. On August 21 Colin became an extratropical cyclone, and later dissipated on the same day.

In total, Colin caused 14.8 billion dollars in damages, and 427 deaths, 75 of which were indirect. Extreme flooding and wind damage were the two costliest and deadliest aspects of Colin.

Hurricane Danielle[]

Category 1 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
HurricaneBahamas Hurricane Danielle 2016 Track
DurationAugust 19th – August 23rd
Peak intensity130 km/h (80 mph) (1-min) 978 hPa (mbar)

Hurricane Earl[]

Category 2 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
Hurricane Igor 2010-09-12 1600Z Hurricane Earl 2016 Darren Track
DurationAugust 20th – September 6th
Peak intensity175 km/h (110 mph) (1-min) 966 hPa (mbar)

Tropical Storm Fiona[]

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
Niala 2015-09-25 2020Z Tropical Storm Fiona 2016 Darren Track
DurationAugust 22nd – August 27th
Peak intensity85 km/h (55 mph) (1-min) 1000 hPa (mbar)

Hurricane Gaston[]

Category 1 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
James 1981 Hurricane Gaston 2016 Darren Track
DurationAugust 23rd – September 1st
Peak intensity140 km/h (85 mph) (1-min) 980 hPa (mbar)

Hurricane Hermine[]

Category 4 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
Hurricane Isabel 11 sept 2003 1415Z Hurricane Hermine 2016 Darren Track
DurationAugust 30th – September 14th
Peak intensity230 km/h (145 mph) (1-min) 937 hPa (mbar)

Hurricane Ian[]

Category 5 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
Ian165mph
DurationSeptember 9th – September 23rd
Peak intensity280 km/h (175 mph) (1-min) 900 hPa (mbar)

Hurricane Julia[]

Category 1 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
Hermine 2016-09-01 2300z
DurationSeptember 30th – October 10th
Peak intensity140 km/h (85 mph) (1-min) 978 hPa (mbar)

Tropical Storm Karl[]

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
Ingrid 2013
DurationOctober 6th – October 19th
Peak intensity110 km/h (70 mph) (1-min) 990 hPa (mbar)

Tropical Storm Lisa[]

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
Ian 2016-09-13 1640Z
DurationOctober 14th – October 21st
Peak intensity95 km/h (60 mph) (1-min) 1000 hPa (mbar)

Hurricane Matthew[]

Category 3 tropical cyclone (SSHWS)
Hurricane Earl 2010-09-02 1529Z
DurationOctober 14th – October 23rd
Peak intensity205 km/h (125 mph) (1-min) 951 hPa (mbar)

Tropical Storm Nicole[]

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
Karl 2016-09-24 1450Z
DurationOctober 12th – October 18th
Peak intensity110 km/h (70 mph) (1-min) 992 hPa (mbar)

Tropical Depression 17[]

SeventeenTD
Current storm status:
Tropical Depression (SSHWS)
Tropical Storm Ophelia 092311 1745 UTC
As of:2:00 PM ET
Location:150 Miles SE of the West Antilles
Sustained Winds:35 mph
Minimum Pressure:1011 mb
Movement:NW 4 mph
Advisory Number:1
See more detailed information.

Storm Names[]

  • Hermine
  • Ian
  • Julia
  • Karl
  • Lisa
  • Matthew
  • Nicole
  • Otto (unused)
  • Paula (unused)
  • Richard (unused)
  • Shary (unused)
  • Tobias (unused)
  • Virginie (unused)
  • Walter (unused)

Season Effects[]

2016 [[Atlantic]] season statistics
Storm
name
Dates active Storm category
at peak intensity
Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h)
Min.
press.
(mbar)
Areas affected Damage
(USD)
Deaths


One June 6 - June 7th Tropical depression 35 (55) 1007 None None 0


Two June 3- June 6 Tropical depression 30 (50) 1009 None None 0


Alex August 8 - August 14 Category 3 hurricane 115 (185) 956 Bahamas, Floria, Alabama, Mississippi 1.1 Billion 44 (9)


Bonnie August 13 - August 23 Tropical storm 65 (105) 992 Cape Verde, Bermuda 0.01 Million (1)


Colin August 14 - August 21 Category 4 hurricane 150 (240) 932 Bahamas, Florida, Cuba, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama 14.8 Billon 352 (75)


Danielle August 19 - August 23 Category 1 hurricane 80 (130) 978 Bahamas, Bermuda 1.2 Million 1 (2)


Earl August 20 - September 6 Category 2 hurricane 110 (175) 966 New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Maine, Canada 576 Million 5


Fiona August 22 - August 27 Tropical storm 55 (90) 1000 None None 0


Gaston August 23 - September 1 Category 1 hurricane 85 (135) 980 Azores 0.1 Million (1)


Hermine August 30 - September 14 Category 4 hurricane 145 (235) 937 Cape Verde 0.3 Million 0


Ian September 9 - September 23 Category 5 hurricane 175 (280) 900 Bahamas, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama 34.9 Billion 582


Julia September 30 - October 10 Category 1 hurricane 85 (135) 978 Jamaica, Florida 13 Million 6


Karl October 9 - October 16 Tropical storm 70 (115) 990 Mexico 9.8 Million 12


Lisa October 14 - October 21 Tropical storm 60 (95) 1000 None None 0


Matthew October 14 - October 23 Category 3 hurricane 125 (200) 951 North Carolina 4 Million 14


Nicole October 18 - October 22 Tropical storm 70 (115) 992 None None 0