The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was an above-average season with 19 depressions, 16 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes. It was the first above average atlantic hurricane season since 2022 along with the first to include a category 5 since 2019.
The season officially started on June 1 and ended on November 30. However the NHC had issued tropical weather bulletins as early as May 15 due to a high number of tropical storms forming prior to the beginning of the season. Despite the season boundaries, tropical cyclones could form at any time of the year, as showcased by Tropical Depression One, which formed on May 15. This marked the third consecutive year with a pre-season system.
Seasonal forecasts[]
| Source | Date | Named storms |
Hurricanes | Major hurricanes | |
| Average (1991–2020) | 25.5 | 18.5 | 10 | ||
| Record high activity | 30† | 26† | 12† | ||
| Record low activity | 4 | 2 | 0 | ||
| ––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– | |||||
| TSR | December 14, 2023 | 21 | 12 | 6-7 | |
| CSU | April 17, 2024 | 20 | 10 | 4 | |
| NCSU | May 14, 2024 | 25 | 12 | 3-6 | |
| NOAA | May 20, 2024 | 18 | 6 | 1-2 | |
| CSU | June 4, 2024 | 19 | 11 | 3-5 | |
| UA | June 12, 2024 | 10 | 7 | 2 | |
| CSU | July 7, 2024 | 15 | 5 | 2 | |
| TSR | July 7, 2024 | 17 | 10 | 5 | |
| ––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– | |||||
| Actual activity |
16 | 11 | 6 | ||
| * June–November only † Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all) | |||||
During and before every hurricane year, national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and well-known hurricane experts issue multiple hurricane activity predictions. This is the case with forecasters from Climate Prediction Center, TSR, UK Met, Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray and their Colorado State University (CSU) partners at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). These forecasts include changes in the number of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes within a given year on weekly and monthly basis. According to the NOAA and CSU, there were about 14 tropical storms, seven hurricanes, three big hurricanes and a cumulative cyclone power index (ACE) of 72–111 units in the Atlantic hurricane season between 1991 and 2021. In general, (ACE) is a measure of the strength of a tropical or subtropical storm, which has repeatedly existed over time. Only full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems with or above wind velocities of 39 mph (63 km/h) shall be calculated. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) typically categorizes a season as either above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative (ACE) index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season are sometimes also considered.
Pre-seasonal forecasts[]
TSR issued, on December 14, 2023, an extended 2024 Atlantic hurricane year forecast with 21 named storms, 12 hurricanes, 6-7 major hurricanes, an ACE index of approximately 195 units, and a above-average activity prediction. TSR cited the expected growth of a strong El Niña as the main factor behind its forecast in the second quarter of 2022. On April 17, 2024, the CSU released its first predictions for a season with above average activity with 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes and 165 units ACE, citing the unlikely La Niñ0 and temperatures in the subtropical Atlantic, which were much warmer than average. On May 14, NCSU predicted a season for 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes and three or six major hurricanes. On May 20, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued their forecasts for the season, predicting a 60% chance of above-average activity and 30% chance for hyperactive activity, with 18 named storms, six hurricanes and 1-2 major hurricanes.
Mid-seasonal forecasts[]
CSU released an updated forecast on June 4, calling for 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. UA issued their first and final prediction for the season on June 12, decreasing their numbers to 10 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. On July 7, CSU released their final forecast, predicting 15 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. That same day, TSR made their final forecast to 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.
Seasonal summary[]
