The 2030-31 South Pacific cyclone season was one of the most active on record, and featured numerous severe cyclones. Several storms effected Fiji and French Polynesia, causing severe damage across many islands. Cyclone Haley and Cyclone Louise caused extensive damage throughout Fiji, each impacting the opposite side of the country. Due to the ongoing severe 2030-2031 El NiƱo event, the most active area for tropical cyclogenesis was pushed further into the open ocean, resulting in many storms either effecting or developing east of the Society Islands in French Polynesia. As a consequence, Cyclone Florin and Cyclone Niko both caused extensive damage in Tahiti, along with several other storms causing minor damage. Among those, Cyclone Eden and Cyclone Garry were the most intense and resulted in several fatalities. Additionally, the season was the most active since the 1997-98 season, which currently holds the record for the most active season on record. The first storm of the season, Tropical Cyclone Cyril, formed off-season on 12 October. In addition to the other notable storms, two unnamed storms formed far to the east, with one existing outside of the official boundaries for the basin. The season also saw a record high amount of retired names, with a total of 7 storm names being removed after the season. This was due to the large amount of intense tropical cyclones that impacted populated islands, with a record high of $USD[TBA] in damages being dealt in total. The season was also extremely deadly, with over [TBA] casualties reported. The majority of these were from Niko, which passed close to Tahiti as a category 5 tropical cyclone, causing the worst damage inflicted by a tropical cyclone in the island's history. Cyclone Haley caused extremely severe damage across Fiji, monetary damage amounted to over $USD1.7 billion, making the storm one of the basin's costliest, only surpassed by Cyclone Gabrielle and Cyclone Winston.
During the season, tropical cyclones will be officially monitored by the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS), Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), and New Zealand's MetService. The United States Armed Forces through the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) will also monitor the basin and issue unofficial warnings for American interests. RSMC Nadi attaches a number and an F suffix to tropical disturbances that form in or move into the basin while the JTWC designates significant tropical cyclones with a number and a P suffix. RSMC Nadi, TCWC Wellington and TCWC Brisbane all use the Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale and estimate windspeeds over a period of ten minutes, while the JTWC estimated sustained winds over a 1-minute period, which are subsequently compared to the SaffirāSimpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS).
Seasonal forecasts[]
| Source/Record | Tropical Cyclone |
Severe Tropical Cyclone |
|---|---|---|
| Record high: | 1997ā98: 16 | 1982ā83: 9 |
| Record low: | 1990ā91: 2 | 2008ā09: 0 |
| Average (1969ā70 ā 2029ā30): | 7 | 3 |
| FMS July | 7ā8 | 2ā3 |
| ACWCL July | 6-7 | 2ā3 |
| ACWCL August | 8-9 | 3ā4 |
| ACWCL September | 9-10 | 3ā5 |
| NIWA October | 9ā11 | 4ā6 |
| FMS December | 10ā12 | 5ā7 |
| NIWA December | 9ā11 | 6ā7 |
| ACWCL December | 9-12 | 4ā6 |
Prior to the official boundaries of the season, several agencies issued long-range outlooks for tropical cyclone activity during the season. On July 12, the Fiji Meteorological Service issued its long-range outlook for the season, and expected 7-8 storms to reach tropical cyclone intensity, and a further 2-3 to reach severe tropical cyclone intensity. Later on July 16, the University of Newcastle's Australian Centre for Water, Climate and Land (ACWCL) issued its July forecast, and estimated that 6-7 tropical cyclones would form during the season. The ACWCL also predicted similarly to the FMS, that 2-3 storms would strengthen further to become severe tropical cyclones. In August, the ACWCL revised their prediction, accounting for the developing El NiƱo event across the equatorial Pacific. Due to this, a total of 8-9 storms were now expected to develop, with 3-4 storms becoming severe tropical cyclones. As the trend of warming continued, the ACWCL revised its predictions for a second time in September, now expecting 9-10 storms to form, with 3-5 severe tropical cyclones forming. On 30 October, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) issued its prediction for the season, expecting 9-11 tropical cyclones to form, including the tropical cyclones Cyril and Daphne that had already formed. Additionally, due to unusually favorable conditions present across the basin, they estimated that 4-6 severe tropical cyclones would form.
On December 1, the FMS issued its second outlook for the season, predicting an extremely active season with 10-12 tropical cyclones, and 5-7 severe tropical cyclones. This total included the several storms that had already formed. On December 15, NIWA issued its last outlook, now expecting 6-7 severe tropical cyclones to form, due to the basin exhibiting similar environmental conditions to the extremely active 1982-83 season. The final prediction issued for the season was by ACWCL on 31 December, who now predicted a total of 9-12 tropical cyclones, and 4-6 severe tropical cyclones. They additionally predicted that more tropical cyclones would impact Tahiti and Samoa later in the year.
Seasonal summary[]
| ACE (10-4 kt2) ā Storm: JTWC | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31.9475 | Haley | 2 | 25.6475 | Mike | 3 | 18.5975 | Niko | ||||||
| 4 | 14.4875 | Eden | 5 | 14.4175 | Louise | 6 | 13.95 | Isa | ||||||
| 7 | 12.7025 | Garry | 8 | 9.715 | Florin | 9 | 4.99 | June | ||||||
| 10 | 3.3075 | Daphne | 11 | 2.64 | Kofi | 12 | 2.0175 | 16F | ||||||
| 13 | 1.7375 | Cyril | 14 | 1.4925 | 05F | Total = 157.65 | ||||||||
Pre-season activity[]
The first storm of the season, Tropical Cyclone Cyril, formed on 12 October. Cyril remained very weak, with minimal effect on land while being post-tropical. Later on October 24, a tropical disturbance would form near Caroline Island. This disturbance would eventually develop into Tropical Cyclone Daphne, which gradually strengthened to a hurricane-equivalent tropical cyclone according to the JTWC. Daphne and Cyril both formed and dissipated before the official start of tropical cyclone season, which makes it the first season since 1997-98 to have two tropical cyclones that formed before November.
Early season activity[]
After a short period of no activity, a tropical disturbance formed Tropical Cyclone Eden on 15 November. Eden would go on to be the first of eight severe tropical cyclones of the season, and heavily impacted several coral atolls, including many of the Cook Islands, after undergoing a loop. Its remnants would then track eastward, eventually dissipating on 27 November. Severe Tropical Cyclone Florin formed on 5 December near the Marquesas Islands, and drifted south, eventually passing directly between Tahiti and Moorea as a severe tropical cyclone. Florin would reach its peak intensity south of the islands, and became extratropical early on 12 November. Extensive damage was reported from the storm, primarily in Papeete and Afareaitu. While Florin was active, a tropical low formed in the Australian region, west of 160Ā°E. This tropical low would enter the basin on 10 December, and was redesignated as Tropical Depression 05F. According to the JTWC, 05F reached tropical storm status. A short-lived tropical depression, 06F, formed a few days after.
Peak season activity[]
After 06F dissipated, the basin remained quiet until mid-January, when a strong pulse of the positive Madden-Julian oscillation spawned 2 disturbances north of Fiji. The eastern system became Severe Tropical Cyclone Garry, which coincidentally followed a very similar track to its 2013 counterpart, impacting the Society Islands in French Polynesia. The storm also made a direct landfall on Tahiti, causing minor damage. The western storm initially struggled to develop due to the influence of Garry, however it eventually managed to become Severe Tropical Cyclone Haley. Haley became the first of three category 5 tropical cyclones in the season, and passed close to the island of Vanua Levu in Fiji. Due to the intensity and slow movement of the storm, it caused extremely severe damage across much of the country, the worst seen since Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston. It was also the first category 5 tropical cyclone since Cyclone Wano of the previous year. Around 38 confirmed casualties were reported due to Haley, most of which in Vanua Levu. While Cyclone Haley was undergoing its extratropical transition, a tropical depression formed south of Samoa. This depression would eventually evolve into Severe Tropical Cyclone Isa, which passed to the northwest of Fiji, and then reached its maximum intensity unusually far south. While it did not directly impact land, its large size and rip currents caused several fatalities across Fiji and New Zealand. On 25 January, Tropical Cyclone June formed to the northeast of Samoa, and eventually passed east of Tahiti, causing no fatalities. June would continue to move to the south afterwards, eventually dissipating on 31 January. As June was dissipating, Tropical Cyclone Kofi formed to the northeast of the storm. Kofi would remain weak, causing no damages or deaths.
After Kofi dissipated, the negative phase of the Madden-Julian oscillation would prevail across the basin, limiting tropical cyclone activity. This resulted in an unusual lull in development, with the next storm, Cyclone Louise, not developing until late March. Louise originated from a large area of disturbed weather located northeast of Futuna. Louise would move to the west of Fiji, and skirted the southwestern coast of the main island on 21 March. Due to its proximity to the island and strength, it caused severe damage across the country. A total of 6 people lose their lives as a result of the storm. As Louise was undergoing its extratropical transition, a new depression developed into Tropical Cyclone Mike on 21 March. Due to complex steering patterns in the area, Mike would move erratically for a few days before settling on a generally southeastern track. Mike would rapidly intensify into a severe tropical cyclone, reaching category 5-equivalent hurricane winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale. After reachings its peak, Mike would gradually weaken, and transition into an extratropical cyclone on 30 March. On 3 April, a disturbance formed in the extreme eastern areas of the basin. This disturbance would form Cyclone Niko, which moved past the Marquesas Islands on 5 April. Niko would intensify into a potent category 5 tropical cyclone, and would pass just to the east of Tahiti on 9 April. After doing so, Niko would gradually weaken as it continued southward, fully dissipating by 12 April. Niko caused catastrophic damage, and is considered to be the worst tropical cyclone to impact the island in recorded history. Over 274 casualties were reported as a result of the storm, and damages totaled over $780 million USD. Niko was the first storm of category 4 intensity or higher to impact French Polynesia since Cyclone Oli in 2010.
Post-season activity[]
An unusual tropical depression formed on 29 April near the Tuamotus, and eventually strengthened into a category 2 tropical cyclone on the Australian scale. Despite this, it remained unnamed operationally, with the JTWC recognizing it as having reached hurricane-strength windspeeds, and was designated as Tropical Cyclone 25P. In post-analysis, the FMS would classify the storm as a tropical cyclone. On 21 May, the strength of the now dissipating 2030-31 El NiƱo event allowed a tropical disturbance to form beyond the official boundary of the South Pacific basin. This storm, unofficially named Maisa, was one of only two tropical cyclones to form east of 120Ā°E. The other storm, an unnamed tropical cyclone in 1983, had much sparser data and coverage, which led to Maisa being much more researched than it.
Systems[]
Tropical Cyclone Cyril[]
| Category 1 tropical cyclone (Australian scale) | |
| Tropical storm (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | 12 October ā 18 October |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 65 km/h (40 mph) (10-min) 994 hPa (mbar) |
See also: List of off-season South Pacific tropical cyclones
A powerful westerly wind burst occurred in the equatorial Pacific Ocean throughout mid-October. This event, coupled with an active Intertropical Convergence Zone, spawned 2 twin disturbances on either side of the equator. The northern twin would develop into Hurricane/Typhoon Iolana. Above average sea-surface temperatures allowed the southern disturbance to consolidate into a tropical cyclone during 12 October. Shortly after, Fiji Meteorological Service and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center initiated advisories on 12 October, with the former naming it Cyril later the same day. The FMS estimated max 10-minute sustained winds of 65 km/h (40 mph) and a minimum pressure of 994 mbar (hPa). Due to the storm's proximity to the equator, Cyril was unable to strengthen much, and would begin weakening as it began to shift southeast. RSMC Nadi issued its final advisory on Cyril on 16 October, though the agency tracked its remnants until they reached close to the island of Mangareva on 18 October.
Due to being rather weak, little damage was reported in French Polynesia after the storm's passing. Only one fatality was reported as a result of the storm. The remnants of Cyril did cause heavy rainfall across numerous islands. Cyril was the first named storm of the season.
Tropical Cyclone Daphne[]
| Category 2 tropical cyclone (Australian scale) | |
| Category 1 tropical cyclone (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | 25 October ā 31 October |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 110 km/h (70 mph) (10-min) 978 hPa (mbar) |
See also: List of off-season South Pacific tropical cyclones
During 24 October, a tropical disturbance would form near Caroline Island in Kiribati. Similarly to Cyril, above average sea-surface temperatures fueled the intensification of the disturbance, now tagged as 02F by the Fiji Meteorological Service. This disturbance would eventually develop into a tropical depression early on 25 October, and later reached tropical cyclone status on 26 October. Daphne would gradually strengthen afterwards as it moved to the southwest, and reached hurricane-equivalent status according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The FMS estimated max 10-minute sustained winds of 110 km/h (70 mph) and a minimum pressure of 978 mbar (hPa). It held this intensity from 28 October to 29 October, before beginning to weaken as it curved slightly to the southeast. On 31 October, the FMS reported that Daphne had weakened to a tropical depression, while located near the Cook Islands. Similarly, the JTWC downgraded Daphne to a remnant low later that day after its center became fully exposed. The remnants would track eastward before dissipating fully on 1 November. Daphne was the strongest storm to form in October in the South Pacific since Cyclone Vaianu in 2024.
During its passage close to the Cook Islands, minimal damage was reported across several islands. Due to most of these islands being uninhabited, most of the resulting damage ensued in the form of damage to trees. On the few inhabited areas impacted only small damage to structures was recorded, however only a single fatality occurred on Mauke.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Eden[]
| Category 4 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale) | |
| Category 3 tropical cyclone (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | 8 November ā 24 November |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 165 km/h (105 mph) (10-min) 937 hPa (mbar) |
Main article: Cyclone Eden
Late on 8 November, the Fiji Meteorological Service began tracking Tropical Disturbance 03F, while it was located near the Marquesas Islands. 03F would remain almost stationary for several days, while no significant intensification occurred in the storm. Early on 12 November, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center also began tracking 03F, designating it as an invested system. Despite this, 03F would still remain weak until developing into a tropical depression late on 14 November. Soon after, the JTWC classified 03F as a tropical storm, giving it the designation 04P. The FMS followed suit, naming the storm Eden after gales were found in more than half of the storm's core. Afterwards, Eden began strengthening quickly, attaining severe tropical cyclone intensity only a day after being named. The storm peaked at max 10-minute sustained winds of 165 km/h (105 mph) and a minimum pressure of 937 mbar (hPa), making it a category 4 severe tropical cyclone on the Australian scale. Due to entering colder waters, Eden began to steadily weaken afterwards, waning below severe tropical cyclone intensity during 19 November. Eden made its closest approach to Manuae Atoll that same day, and afterwards executed a relatively tight loop, until it settled on a southeasterly direction. During 20-21 November, Eden begun restrengthening to the southwest of the Society Islands, though it only managed to re-intensify slightly. On 23 November, the JTWC issued its last advisory on Eden, with the FMS also issued their final advisory a day later. The extratropical remnants of Eden would eventually dissipate on 27 November, south of Rapa Nui.
While Eden did not directly strike land, its large size resulted in notable damage to several islands in relatively close proximity to the storm. In the Marquesas Islands, the precursor disturbance caused heavy rainfall, which resulted in severe property damage, especially on Nuka Hiva. Rough seas caused by Eden drowned three fishermen off the coast of Maupiti, and an additional two fatalities were recorded in the Cook Islands, when two people were swept out to sea in a rip current caused by Eden. Monetary losses totaled to around $USD 1 million across areas effected. Following the season, the name Eden was retired due to the deaths it caused, and was replaced by the name Esava for any future usage.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Florin[]
| Category 4 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale) | |
| Category 3 tropical cyclone (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | 6 December ā 11 December |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 165 km/h (105 mph) (10-min) 940 hPa (mbar) |
Main article: Cyclone Florin
Tropical Cyclone Florin originated from a disturbance that formed late on 3 December. The JTWC had issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert by the next day, and the Fiji Meteorological Service reported that the storm had organized into Tropical Depression 04F. Shortly after, the JTWC classified the storm as a tropical storm early on 6 December, giving it the designation of Tropical Storm 07P. Early the next morning, it was assigned the name Florin while located north of the Palliser Islands. After its designation, Florin would continue to strengthen, reaching severe tropical cyclone intensity on 9 December, after an eye-feature was noted on satellite imagery. At this time, the JTWC also classified the storm as a hurricane-equivalent tropical cyclone. Shortly afterwards, Florin made a landfall on the northwestern coast of Tahiti, near Papeete. Despite this, it continued strengthening after its center moved back over the ocean again. The storm peaked at max 10-minute sustained winds of 165 km/h (105 mph) and a minimum pressure of 940 mbar (hPa) on 10 December. After passing close to the island of Tubuai, it begun weakening. Late on 11 December, Florin weakened below severe tropical cyclone intensity, and completed its extratropical transition shortly after. The extratropical remnants of Florin would dissipate a day late, and later merged with a larger cyclone to the southwest.
Florin was the most severe cyclone to impact Tahiti and Moorea until Cyclone Niko later in the year. The storm resulted in heavy rainfall, which caused flash flooding across more low-lying areas of the islands. As a result of the storm's passage, tourist attractions were closed for several weeks for repairs. Around 35% of the island's infrastructure saw moderate to severe damage, with several buildings in Moorea being completely destroyed. Monetary damage amounted to around $USD15.2 million in damages. Several fatalities were reported, with two people dying in a traffic collision. Another two fatalities were a result of rip currents in Moorea, where two men were swept out to sea. Several beaches did not reopen until several months later, but would be closed for a second time shortly after due to Cyclone Niko. Following the season, the name Florin was retired due to the deaths it caused, and was replaced by the name Feki for any future usage.
Tropical Depression 05F[]
| Tropical depression (Australian scale) | |
| Tropical storm (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | 10 December (entered basin) ā 13 December |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 55 km/h (35 mph) (10-min) 998 hPa (mbar) |
According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, a tropical low formed to the south of the island of New Georgia in Papua New Guinea. Shortly after entering the basin, the FMS and JTWC both classified the storm as a tropical depression on 10 December, designating the storm as 05F and 09P respectively. According to the JTWC, 05F reached tropical storm status later that day, though only reached maximum 10-minute sustained winds of 35 km/h (20 mph) and a minimum pressure of 998 mbar (hPa) according to the FMS. On 13 December, the JTWC reclassified 05F as a post-tropical cyclone, while located between New Caledonia and Vanuatu. The FMS would also issue their last advisory on 05F shortly after. The remnants of the storm would dissipate to the north of New Zealand on 16 December.
As the storm was very weak, minimal damage was reported across the northern regions of Vanuatu, and only a single fatality was reported from the storm, on the island of Malekula.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Garry[]
| Category 3 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale) | |
| Category 2 tropical cyclone (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | 10 January ā 20 January |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 150 km/h (90 mph) (10-min) 962 hPa (mbar) |
Main article: Cyclone Garry (2031)
A tropical disturbance formed near Tuvalu on 9 January. Shortly after, a circulation developed within the storm, and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated Tropical Depression 07F on 10 January. Following suit, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the storm as Tropical Depression 11P. On 11 January, the FMS named the storm Garry, while it was located well to the northeast of Samoa. Due to favorable environmental conditions, Garry began to strengthen as it continued moving southeast. During 14 January, the JTWC upgraded Garry to a hurricane-equivalent storm as an eye feature was noted on satellite imagery. Later that day, the FMS reclassified the storm as a severe tropical cyclone. The storm peaked at max 10-minute sustained winds of 150 km/h (95 mph) and a minimum pressure of 962 mbar (hPa) on 16 January, shortly after Cyclone Haley peaked. Afterwards, it begun weakening as it approached the Society Islands, and eventually directly struck the northern coasts of Tahiti and Tahaa on 18 January. After passing through Tahiti, it would approach Hereheretue Atoll. Garry would pass to the west of the Gambier Islands, before completing its extratropical transition on 20 January. The FMS and JTWC both issued their last advisory at this point, and the extratropical remnants would later be absorbed into a larger extratropical cyclone to the southeast. Oddly, Garry took a very similar path to a storm of the same name in 2012-13.
Severe impacts were reported across several islands, most notably Tahiti, where 2 casualties occurred as a result of the storm. Of the storms to impact Tahiti and Moorea during the season, Garry was the weakest, however it still caused an estimated total of $USD9.4 million in damages. Additionally, two fatalties were also reported on Tahaa and Raiatea. No damage was reported across Hereheretue or any of the Gambier Islands. Despite the damage caused, the name Garry was not retired after the season.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Haley[]
| Category 5 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale) | |
| Category 5 tropical cyclone (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | 12 January ā 19 January |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 260 km/h (160 mph) (10-min) 908 hPa (mbar) |
Main article: Cyclone Haley
As Cyclone Garry was developing on 11 January, a new tropical disturbance formed to the west. Following the path of Garry, the disturbance begun moving eastward, and was designated as Tropical Depression 08F on 12 January. The JTWC also designated the storm as Tropical Storm 12P that same day. However, due to shifting weather patterns, as well as the influence of Garry, the depression begun to move northwards, and was later assigned the name Haley on 13 January. Afterwards, Haley begun to intensify, reaching severe tropical cyclone status only a day later. While located to the west of Futuna, Haley begun to undergo explosive deepening, and rapidly intensified to reach category 5 status on both the Australian and Saffir-Simpson scale on 15 January. The storm continued to strengthen further after this point, reaching max 10-minute sustained winds of 260 km/h (160 mph) and a minimum pressure of 908 mbar (hPa), completing a full loop in its track. This made Haley one of the most intense South Pacific tropical cyclones on record. Haley would sustain category 5 intensity for over a day, however would eventually weaken due to undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. After it weakened back to a category 4 cyclone, Haley directly struck the island of Taveuni, located directly to the east of Vanua Levu. Due to being rather large, the outer bands of Haley effected the majority of the entire country of Fiji as it continued to move southward slowly. As the storm's center moved out into the ocean again, it continued moving towards Viti Levu, the main populated island of Fiji. According to the JTWC, Haley weakened to category 3 intensity on the SSHWS, and would later weaken below major-hurricane status to the southeast of the Moala Islands. Haley would pass between the islands of Tuvana-i-Ra in Fiji and Tongatapu of Tonga. The storm would transition into an extratropical cyclone on 20 January, and the FMS issued their final warning shortly after. Over the next few days, the remnants of Haley would move swiftly across the southern Pacific Ocean, eventually dissipating around 3400 km to the southeast of Papeete.
Cyclone Haley was the most destructive storm of the season, and the worst storm to impact Fiji since Cyclone Winston. Damage was exacerbated due to the storm's slow movement, and the divisions of Northern Fiji and Eastern Fiji saw the worst damage. Over 12,000 people were left homeless as a result of the storm, and 37 fatalities were recorded ā the majority of which in the Northern Division. Taveuni was the most impacted area, with almost all of the structures on the island either completely destroyed or heavily damaged. As of recently, 8 people are currently considered to be missing. Cyclone Haley was the second-most destructive storm in Fiji's history, only surpassed by Winston. Nominal damage amounted to $USD1.7 billion, making the storm the third-costliest tropical cyclone in the basin, only behind Cyclone Gabrielle and Cyclone Winston. A single fatality was also reported in Futuna, where a person was swept out to sea by a rip current caused by the storm. Following the season, the name Haley was retired due to the destruction and deaths it caused, and was replaced by the name Hilo for any future usage.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Isa[]
| Category 4 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale) | |
| Category 4 tropical cyclone (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | 19 January ā 27 January |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 185 km/h (115 mph) (10-min) 932 hPa (mbar) |
Main article: Cyclone Isa
A tropical disturbance formed around 430 km to the northeast of Niue on 19 January. Later that day, it was assigned the designation 10F by the Fiji Meteorological Service. Early on 20 January, the JTWC issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert, and upgraded 08F to a tropical storm on 21 January. Midday on 22 January, the FMS named the storm Isa. Isa would make its closest approach to Fiji shortly after, while mildly strengthening. On 24 January, an eye feature cleared on satellite, prompting the JTWC to upgrade Isa to a hurricane-equivalent strength cyclone. Shortly after, the FMS upgraded the storm to a severe tropical cyclone, as it begun to stall to the southwest of Viti Levu. Isa would continue to intensify quickly, strengthening into a major hurricane-equivalent storm on 25 January. The storm would reach its peak intensity early the next morning, reaching max 10-minute sustained winds of 185 km/h (115 mph) and a minimum pressure of 932 mbar (hPa). Afterwards, Isa begun an eastward turn after entering the subtropics, and begun weakening shortly after. According to the JTWC, Isa weakened below hurricane intensity on 27 January. The FMS would also remove Isa's severe tropical cyclone status at that time. Over a day later, the FMS would issue their last advisory on Isa, with the JTWC following shortly after. The extratropical remnants of the storm would drift to the southwest, nearing the northern tip of the North Island of New Zealand. On 31 January, the cyclone would begin moving north, but would ultimately dissipate the next day. Isa would be the last severe tropical cyclone until Cyclone Louise months later.
Isa dropped very heavy rainfall across northern Fiji and Wallis and Futuna, exacerbating damage caused by the earlier Cyclone Haley. The storm also caused rough surf across near the eastern islands of Vanuatu, along with the southern coast of Viti Levu. The remnant cyclone also caused strong winds on Norfolk Island, causing slight infrastructure damage. As a tropical depression, Isa moved very close to the island of Niuatoputapu, an island in northern Tonga, though no significant damage was observed. Overall, over 14 fatalities occurred because of the storm, with monetary damages amounting to around $USD90 million. Because of the fatalities caused by Isa, the name was removed and replaced with Ili.
Tropical Cyclone June[]
| Category 2 tropical cyclone (Australian scale) | |
| Category 1 tropical cyclone (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | 25 January ā 31 January |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 110 km/h (70 mph) (10-min) 979 hPa (mbar) |
Following a similar path to Garry, a new tropical depression would form on 25 January near the island of TaŹ»Å«. Later that day, the JTWC classified the depression as Tropical Cyclone 15P. During its passage south of Penrhyn, the Fiji Meteorological Service upgraded the depression to tropical cyclone status, assigning it the name June. Around this time, steering currents begun to pull June southward towards the Society Islands. June passed north of the Leeward Group on 27 January, while nearing hurricane-equivalent status on the Saffir-Simpson scale. June would peak just below severe tropical cyclone status to the east of Tahiti, reaching max 10-minute sustained winds of 110 km/h (70 mph) and a minimum pressure of 979 mbar (hPa). Afterwards, June would begin weakening while directly south of Anaa. The influence of the nearby disturbance that would develop into Cyclone Kofi caused June to deaccelerate on 29 January as it curved slightly eastward. The weakened storm would move further southward, and the FMS eventually issued their last advisory on the storm on 31 January.
While June did not directly impact land, it did cause notable effects across several islands in French Polynesia. No fatalities were reported from the storm, however heavy rainfall occurred across the eastern areas of Tahiti, which was located near the edge of the storm's eyewall. Of the damage that occured in Tahiti, the worst reported was in the commune of HitiaŹ»a O Te Ra. June also caused minimal damage across several of the Palliser Islands, especially Tikehau and Rangiroa. Overall, the storm dealt an estimated $USD1.6 million in damages.
Tropical Cyclone Kofi[]
| Category 2 tropical cyclone (Australian scale) | |
| Tropical storm (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | 29 January ā 2 February |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 95 km/h (60 mph) (10-min) 984 hPa (mbar) |
The ITCZ spawned a tropical disturbance to the southeast of the Marquesas on 28 January. The Fiji Meteorological Service designated the disturbance as 12F, and later upgraded 12F to a depression the next day. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center also designated the storm as Tropical Cyclone 16P shortly after. 12F would move southeastward, before being named Kofi on 31 January. At this time, the FMS forecasted the storm to reach severe tropical cyclone status briefly, however due to worsening environmental conditions, it would not reach that intensity. Kofi would reach its peak intensity of max 10-minute sustained winds of 95 km/h (60 mph) and a minimum pressure of 984 mbar (hPa), while located to the east of Mangareva. Afterwards, it begun to curve further east while slowly weakening. Kofi moved north of Pitcairn Island on 2 February, making it one of only a few tropical cyclones to impact the Pitcairn Islands. Kofi would weaken back into a tropical depression on 3 February while located just to the south of Henderson Island.
Kofi was one of the most eastern tropical cyclones on record in the South Pacific. The storm dropped heavy rainfall across both Pitcairn Island and Henderson Island, causing zero fatalities, but monetary damages amounted to around $USD1 million.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Louise[]
| Category 4 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale) | |
| Category 4 tropical cyclone (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | 18 March ā 23 March |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 195 km/h (120 mph) (10-min) 924 hPa (mbar) |
Main article: Cyclone Louise
Severe Tropical Cyclone Mike[]
| Category 5 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale) | |
| Category 5 tropical cyclone (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | 21 March ā 31 March |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 240 km/h (150 mph) (10-min) 916 hPa (mbar) |
Main article: Cyclone Mike A tropical cyclone formed on 21 March from a broad area of disorganized
Severe Tropical Cyclone Niko[]
| Category 5 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale) | |
| Category 5 tropical cyclone (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | 3 April ā 11 April |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 220 km/h (140 mph) (10-min) 922 hPa (mbar) |
Main article: Cyclone Niko
A rare tropical disturbance formed in the extreme northeastern areas of the basin on 3 April. The warm near-equatorial sea-surface temperatures provided by the decaying El NiƱo event allowed a tropical depression to form the next day. The Fiji Meteorological Service and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the tropical depression as 15F and 24P respectively. 15F would intensify as it passed south of the Marquesas Islands, becoming the first recorded tropical system to impact Fatu-Hiva. Shortly after, the FMS assigned the name Niko to the storm, as it had been determined to have reached tropical cyclone status on 6 April. Around the same time that Niko reached severe tropical cyclone intensity, it would begin moving southward towards the Palliser and Society Islands. Unusually high sea-surface temperatures present over the region allowed Niko to begin rapidly intensifying on 8 April. The JTWC upgraded Niko to a major hurricane-equivalent tropical cyclone later that day, and made landfall on the eastern shore of Rangiroa shortly after. Afterwards, Niko would continue intensifying as it approached Tahiti, reaching category 5 intensity on both the Australian and Saffir-Simpson scale on 9 April. According to the FMS, it reached max 10-minute sustained winds of 220 km/h (135 mph) and a minimum pressure of 922 mbar (hPa). This made Niko the third-strongest storm of the season, only surpassed by the earlier Cyclone Mike and Cyclone Haley. It made its closest approach to Tahiti shortly after, and begun weakening after moving south of 19Ā°S. While to the east of RaāivÄvae, Niko weakened below major-hurricane intensity according to the JTWC. The FMS noted that Niko had weakened below severe tropical cyclone intensity on 11 April, and the last advisory was issued shortly after as it completed its extratropical transition. However, the JTWC would continue tracking the storm for several more hours, until the last advisory was issued on 12 April, located about 1080 km to the southwest of Mangareva. Niko was the last severe tropical cyclone of the season.
Cyclone Niko was the second most destructive storm of the season, and the worst storm to impact Tahiti in recorded history. Damage was extremely severe, with around 70% of the island's infrastructure being at least heavily damaged. Severe flooding occured in Papeete and several other low-lying communities, causing the bulk of damage from the storm. Around 2,000 people were left homeless as a result of the storm, and 274 fatalities were recorded. Around 132 of these were on the low-lying Rangiroa, which was the only island to be directly struck by the storm. In the Marquesas Islands, 2 deaths were reported on Fatu-Hiva, and 10 fatalities were reported on Moorea. A single fatality was recorded on RaāivÄvae, and the remaining 129 deaths occurred on Tahiti. This also made Niko by far the deadliest natural disaster in French Polynesian history, surpassing Cyclone Alan. The settlement of Avatoru was almost completely destroyed, and recovery efforts took nearly a decade. Monetary damages amounted to over $USD780 million. Following the season, the name Niko was retired due to the destruction and deaths it caused, and was replaced by the name Neta for any future usage.
Tropical Cyclone 16F[]
| Category 2 tropical cyclone (Australian scale) | |
| Category 1 tropical cyclone (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | 29 April ā 2 May |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 100 km/h (65 mph) (10-min) 982 hPa (mbar) |
A subtropical disturbance formed near Moruroa and Fangataufa on 28 April. The next day, the JTWC would classify the storm as a subtropical depression, and the FMS would designate it as Tropical Disturbance 16F. Despite its location in the subtropical latitudes, it reached tropical storm status on 30 April according to the JTWC. 16F would continue to strengthen, eventually developing an apparent eye-feature on satellite, and reaching peak windspeeds equivalent to that of a minimal category 1 hurricane. Despite this, the FMS operationally only classified 16F as a tropical depression at peak, due to how far southeast it was, along with internal issues in the agency. In post analysis however, it was upgraded to a category 2 tropical cyclone on the Australian scale. 16F would dissipate well to the southwest of Rapa Nui.
Due to its isolated location, no damage or casualties were reported from the storm. 16F was also the first unnamed storm to reach category 2 tropical cyclone intensity since 09F during the 2020-21 season. According to the JTWC, 16F briefly existed east of 120 degrees east longitude, making it unofficially the only storm in recorded history to exit the South Pacific basin from the eastern boundary.
Other systems[]
- Tropical Depression 06F formed to the southeast of Niue on 20 December. It was last noted by the FMS the next day.
- On 13 January, the FMS began tracking a small area of low pressure located near the newly formed Cyclone Haley. It briefly was desgnated Tropical Depression 09F, but then dissipated a few days later.
- On May 21, an unnamed tropical storm formed further east than the area of responsibility of the Fiji Meteorological Service. Due to this, it officially remained unnamed, peaking as a category 2-equivalent storm on the Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale. It was only one of two recorded storms of tropical origin to form east of 120Ā°E, the other being a tropical storm in 1983. After it had dissipated, it was unofficially named Maisa after Maisa Rojas, a Chilean climatologist.
Storm names[]
Within the Southern Pacific, a tropical depression is judged to have reached tropical cyclone intensity should it reach winds of 65 km/h (40 mph) and it is evident that gales are occurring at least halfway around the center. Any tropical depressions intensifying into a tropical cyclone between the Equator and 25Ā°S and between 160Ā°E ā 120Ā°W named by the FMS. However should a tropical depression intensify to the south of 25Ā°S between 160Ā°E and 120Ā°W it will be named in conjunction with the FMS by MetService. Should a tropical cyclone move out of the basin and into the Australian region it will retain its original name.
The names that were used for the 2030ā31 season are listed below. The names Eden, Florin, Isa, and Louise were used for the first (and only) time after they replaced the names Evan, Freda, Ian, and Lusi after the 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons respectively.
Retirement[]
After the season, the names Eden, Haley, Florin, Isa, Louise, Mike, and Niko were retired due to the damages they caused, and were replaced with Esava, Feki, Hilo, Ili, Lute, Mata, and Neta respectively.
Seasonal effects[]
| Storm name |
Dates active | Storm category at peak intensity |
Max 1-min wind mph (km/h) |
Min. press. (mbar) |
Areas affected | Damage (USD) |
Deaths | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cyril | 12 - 18 October | Category 1 tropical cyclone | 65 (40) | 994 | Society Islands | Minimal | 1 | |||
| Daphne | 25 - 31 October | Category 2 tropical cyclone | 110 (70) | 978 | Cook Islands | Minimal | 1 | |||
| Eden | 8 - 24 November | Category 4 severe tropical cyclone | 165 (105) | 937 | Marquesas Islands, Cook Islands, Gambier Islands | $1 million | 5 | |||
| Florin | 6 - 11 December | Category 4 severe tropical cyclone | 165 (105) | 940 | Palliser Islands, Society Islands (especially Tahiti), Austral Islands | $15.2 million | 4 | |||
| 05F | 10 - 13 December | Tropical depression | 55 (35) | 998 | Vanuatu | $2.7 million | 1 | |||
| 06F | 20 - 21 December | Tropical disturbance | 45 (30) | 999 | Vanuatu | None | None | |||
| Garry | 10 - 20 January | Category 3 severe tropical cyclone | 150 (90) | 962 | Tuvalu, French Polynesia | $9.4 million | 6 | |||
| Haley | 12 - 19 January | Category 5 severe tropical cyclone | 260 (160) | 908 | Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Tonga | $1.7 billion | 38 | |||
| Season aggregates | ||||||||||
| 16 systems | 12 October, 2030 - 2 May, 3031 | 886 | $151.510 billion | 7,296 | ||||||
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