The 2038 Atlantic hurricane season was a below-average season featuring only eight named storms, 4 hurricanes, and no major hurricanes. This was the first season since the 2013 season to feature no major hurricanes during the entire season. Despite this, the season was very catastrophic, particularly for the United States Gulf coast region, where two storms caused record-breaking rainfall totals. The annual season began on June 1, 2038, and ran through November 30, 2038, though formation is possible at any time, as demonstrated by Subtropical Storm Arthur, which formed on May 15. After Arthur, the season hit a long period of inactivity, with no storms forming until Tropical Storm Bertha on August 16. Several storms formed in succession to Bertha, including the first hurricane of the season, Eldad, which formed on August 21. Eldad stayed out to sea for its entire duration and reached its peak intensity as a category 2 hurricane on September 5, becoming the strongest system of the season. Another category 2 hurricane formed in late September, Gonzalo, and also stayed out to sea. Following another lull in activity for the entirety of October, the final hurricane and named system of the season, Heather, formed on November 8 and peaked as a high-end category 1 hurricane over the central Atlantic. The season ended with a subtropical depression, Eleven, which formed off the United States east coast and took an erratic path that ultimately led it out to sea.
The most impactful storms of the year, Arthur and Dolly, both brought extreme rainfall to parts of the United States Gulf coast. Arthur formed in mid-May off the Gulf coast of Florida and stalled there through the 17th, bringing torrential downpours and wind gusts in excess of 65 mph for over 24 hours. Though Arthur eventually moved away from Florida, it recurved back toward the northwest and approached the state for a second time on May 20. Arthur moved inland over the peninsula and eventually degenerated into a remnant low, though it persisted for another day or so, bringing more devasting rainfall. Hurricane Dolly later impacted parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle in late August. Dolly made landfall in a similar location to Hurricane Dimitri the prior year, bringing more torrential rainfalls and destructive impacts to areas that were still recovering. The only other system to directly impact land as a tropical cyclone during the 2038 season was Tropical Storm Cameron in mid-August, though its impacts in Louisiana and the southeastern United States were relatively minor.
Seasonal forecasts[]
In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the United Kingdom's Met Office (UKMO), and Colorado State University (CSU), among other various agencies. The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 2001 and 2030 contained roughly 16 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 82–135 units. Broadly speaking, ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h). NOAA typically categorizes a season as above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season is sometimes also considered.
Pre-season forecasts[]
| Source | Date | Namedstorms | Hurricanes | Majorhurricanes |
| Average (2001–2030) | 16.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | |
| Record high activity | 30 | 15 | 7† | |
| Record low activity | 4 | 2† | 0† | |
| TSR | December 4, 2037 | 12 | 4 | 1 |
| TSR | April 2, 2038 | 13 | 5 | 2 |
| CSU | April 10, 2038 | 15 | 7 | 3 |
| NCSU | April 12, 2038 | 12 | 6 | 2 |
| UA | April 28, 2038 | 10 | 4 | 1 |
| TWC | April 28, 2038 | 14 | 7 | 2 |
| NOAA | May 3, 2038 | 8-15 | 3-7 | 0-3 |
| UKMO* | May 13, 2038 | 11 | 6 | 2 |
| TSR | June 2, 2038 | 10 | 4 | 1 |
| TWC | June 5, 2038 | 13 | 6 | 2 |
| CSU | June 27, 2038 | 14 | 7 | 3 |
| NOAA | July 30, 2038 | 9-14 | 4-7 | 0-2 |
| UKMO | August 2, 2038 | 12 | 6 | 2 |
| Actual activity | 8 | 4 | 0 | |
| * June–November only
† Most recent of several such occurrences. | ||||
On December 4, 2037, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) released their annual extended-range forecast for the 2038 Atlantic hurricane season, calling for a below-average season with 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. They predicted a persistence of the ongoing El-Niño event, paired with a continued decline in average SST's across the Atlantic basin, with some regions seeing as low as 1.5 °C below the average. Four months later on April 2, 2038, TSR increased their prediction slightly to 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. They noted that conditions were still expected to be less favorable for development across the Atlantic, though a higher than usual production of tropical waves over the eastern Atlantic could help boost activity somewhat.
On April 10, 2038, Colorado State University (CSU) released their first forecast for the 2038 Atlantic hurricane season. They forecasted a near-average season featuring 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, citing the potential for tropical waves to take advantage of modest conditions over the central tropical Atlantic during the peak of the season. North Carolina State University (NCSU) issued their own forecast for the 2038 Atlantic season on April 12, predicting a below-average season with 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, citing unfavorable conditions expected across much of the main development region and Caribbean. The University of Arizona (UA) issued their own pre-season forecast on April 28, calling for a below-average season with 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. On the same day, The Weather Company (TWC) issued their forecast for the season, calling for average activity with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
On May 3, NOAA released their first outlook for the season, stating that there was a 70% chance that there would be between 8 and 15 named storms, 3 to 7 hurricanes, and 0 to 3 major hurricanes. They cited the ongoing El-Niño event which would help to restrict significant development of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. The United Kingdom's Met Office (UKMO) issued their first forecast for the season on May 13, predicting 11 named storms with a 70% chance that the number would be between 9 and 15, 6 hurricanes with a 70% chance that the number would be between 4 and 8, and 2 major hurricanes with a 70% chance the number would be between 1 and 3. It also predicted an ACE index of 84 with a 70% chance that the index would be in the range of 57 to 105.
Mid-season forecasts[]
On June 2, TSR issued an updated forecast, predicting a well-below-average season with 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. On June 5, TWC released an update to their previous forecast, citing that they expected below average activity of 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes due to a strong El-Niño event, one of the strongest in recent times. On June 27, CSU issued another forecast for the 2038 season, forecasting the season to be just slightly below average in terms of activity with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
On July 30, NOAA issued their final forecast for the season, stating an expectation for a mostly quiet, below-average season. Their forecast called for 9-14 named storms, 4-7 hurricanes, and 0-2 major hurricanes. UKMO issued their final forecast for the season on August 2, stating that the unfavorable conditions produced across the Atlantic as a result of a powerful El-Niño would limit activity significantly. They predicted the season would see 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
Seasonal timeline[]
Systems[]
Subtropical Storm Arthur[]
| Subtropical storm (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | May 15 – May 21 |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min) 999 mbar (hPa) |
On May 12, a mesovortex low formed over the northern Gulf of Mexico, just offshore of Alabama. The low meandered eastward and began developing strong convection over the following days. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave the low a high chance of development within the next two days on May 14, and the following day, organization had increased enough for the low to be classified as Subtropical Depression One. The depression moved just south of due east just off the coast of Florida while favorable conditions allowed for intensification. Late on the 15th, One intensified into a subtropical storm and was given the name Arthur. The storm continued to intensify and reached a peak intensity with winds of 50 mph and a barometric pressure of 999 millibars. Arthur made landfall near Bayport, Florida on May 16 at peak intensity. The storm then began to accelerate eastward ahead of a strong trough over the southeastern United States, quickly moving over the Florida Peninsula on May 17. Strong wind shear over the southwestern Atlantic, along with cooler sea surface temperatures, induced weakening of the storm. Arthur weakened into a subtropical depression late on the 17th and degenerated into a post-tropical remnant low the following morning. The low briskly curved southward and back toward the northwest on May 18. Wind shear abated on the 18th as the remnant low passed over the Bahamas, allowing for redevelopment into a subtropical storm on May 19. The storm passed over Andros Island on the 19th before attaining a secondary peak intensity with winds of 45 mph and a barometric pressure of 999 millibars. Arthur then made a second Florida landfall, this time near Cutler Ridge on May 20. Arthur weakened and decelerated as it passed over southern Florida, turning northwestward and moving along the west Florida coast through May 21. Wind shear increased drastically on May 21, and Arthur degenerated into a remnant low later that day just offshore of the west Florida coast. The remnants meandered near the coast for the day before dissipating late on May 22.
Arthur brought devastating impacts to the state of Florida despite its small size and weak intensity. Heavy rainfall associated with Arthur's outer rainbands plagued the peninsula for several days as Arthur meandered near the coast from the 15th to the 17th. Arthur then recurved and impacted the state again just a few days later, bringing more rainfall to already flooded areas. Even after dissipation, rainfall continued from the remnants of the storm through May 23. In total, Arhtur dropped over 20 inches of rainfall over much of the state of Florida, bringing significant water damages to thousands of homes and other structures. Rivers, creeks, and lakes were substantially overflowed, causing extreme damages to bridges, nearby homes and structures, crops, and other natural reserves. Wind damages were minimal, though several structures sustained minor damages from wind gusts which reached 60 mph in some places. Rainfall totals were much higher than originally anticipated, with forecasts predicting only up to 10 inches on May 16. Damages from Arthur reached $7.6 billion (USD) in Florida alone, with 132 fatalities directly linked to impacts from the storm. This made Arthur the deadliest and most destructive subtropical storm on record in the Atlantic basin.
Tropical Storm Bertha[]
| Tropical storm (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | August 16 – August 17 |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 40 mph (65 km/h) (1-min) 1005 mbar (hPa) |
After a nearly three-month long lull in Atlantic activity, a tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa on August 11. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) marked the wave for development, giving it a medium chance of formation in the next seven days. The wave tracked westward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days, with modestly favorable conditions allowing for organization. On August 15, organization increased substantially, and the wave was given a high chance of development within the next two days. The following day, it was upgraded into Tropical Depression Two, just over three months since the designation of Subtropical Depression One on May 15, which later became Arthur. Two continued quickly west northwestward and intensified into Tropical Storm Bertha later on August 16. Bertha subsequently attained its peak intensity with winds of 40 mph and a barometric pressure of 1005 millibars, as nearby dry air and increasing wind shear near the Windward Islands were anticipated to restrict further development. As these negative factors began to take their toll on Bertha, the storm weakened into a tropical depression on August 17. Just a few hours later, Bertha was found to be devoid of a closed inner core of circulation, marking its degeneration back into a tropical wave. The wave continued into the Caribbean Sea, where it later dissipated on August 19.
Bertha only brought minor impacts from squally weather in the Windward Islands as a tropical wave. No damages or fatalities were reported.
Tropical Storm Cameron[]
| Tropical storm (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | August 17 – August 23 |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 70 mph (110 km/h) (1-min) 998 mbar (hPa) |
On August 13, a tropical disturbance spawned an area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche. The low was marked for formation by the NHC and given a high chance of development during the next seven days. The low drifted northward and began to show signs of organization on August 16. The following day, organization increased enough for the low to be classified as Tropical Depression Three. The depression quickly intensified into a tropical storm and was named Cameron just six hours later. Cameron turned east-northeast on August 18 as a trough passed over the central United States. Favorable conditions allowed Cameron to intensify, despite only slight intensification forecasted by the NHC. Cameron attained a peak intensity with winds of 70 mph and a barometric pressure of 998 millibars on August 19 as it accelerated northeastward toward the Louisiana coast. Cameron then made landfall in south-central Louisiana at peak intensity on the 19th. The storm weakened as it accelerated northeastward, and on August 20, it transitioned into a post-tropical low over Georgia. The low continued quickly northeastward and moved over the western Atlantic on August 21. Warm waters near 25°C allowed the system to acquire subtropical characteristics, and it redeveloped as a subtropical storm late on August 21. Cameron quickly intensified and attained a secondary peak intensity with winds of 50 mph and a barometric pressure of 999 millibars on August 22. As Cameron continued to accelerate northeastward, decreasing sea surface temperatures induced weakening and extratropical transition. On August 23, Cameron clipped the southernmost tip of Newfoundland before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone. The extratropical remnant continued to race northeastward across the north Atlantic, eventually passing north of the Faroe Islands on August 25 before dissipating.
As a strong tropical storm, Cameron impacted unpopulated parts of Louisiana, which helped lessen the impacts somewhat. Strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall still fell over populous areas such as New Orleans, Louisiana and Biloxi, Mississippi. Damages from Cameron in these states totaled near $98 million (USD), with 3 fatalities reported as a result of the storm's impacts. Cameron also brought stormy weather across the Appalachian region of the United States, resulting in minimal damages. As a subtropical storm, Cameron brough strong wind gusts to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, though damages remained minimal, and no fatalities were reported.
Hurricane Eldad[]
| Category 2 hurricane (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | August 21 – September 5 |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 105 mph (165 km/h) (1-min) 962 mbar (hPa) |
On August 18, a large tropical wave emerged off of the western coast of Africa. The wave was immediately marked with a medium chance of development over the central main development region within the next seven days. Tracking westward, the wave began to show signs of organization on August 20, and chances of development were raised to near 100%. The following day, advisories on Tropical Depression Four were initiated, with a forecast for modest intensification into a tropical storm over the following five days. The depression ingested dry air on August 22, however, hindering further development. Convection dwindled, and Four degenerated into a remnant low later on August 22. The remnant was still monitored by the NHC for potential redevelopment over the western Atlantic later on. The remnant continued generally west-northwest over the following several days. It passed north of the Lesser Antilles on August 26 and turned northwestward around the periphery of the subtropical ridge. Conditions became much more favorable for development late on August 26, and the low began to reorganize. On August 27, the system was found to have redeveloped into a tropical depression. The depression continued to intensify amid favorable conditions, and it was upgraded into Tropical Storm Eldad the following morning. Eldad decelerated drastically as steering patters became increasingly weak due to a developing ridge over the upper Northeastern United States coast. Eldad steadily intensified as it moved slowly northward, nearing hurricane intensity on August 29. The storm turned sharply eastward on August 30 as the ridge moved off of the US coast. Continued favorable conditions allowed Eldad to intensify into a hurricane that same day. Eldad continued slowly on an east-southeast track but remained a minimal category 1 hurricane due to moderate mid-level shear. On September 1, Eldad turned northward as the ridge began to weaken. Wind shear lightened as Eldad recurved back toward the northwest, allowing Eldad to reach its initial peak intensity with winds of 90 mph and a barometric pressure of 968 millibars on September 2. Eldad weakened as it turned northward and decelerated due to upwelling caused by its slow motion, however, remained fairly well-organized. Mid-latitude westerly flow began to influence Eldad on September 3, causing the large hurricane to turn northeastward and accelerate. The hurricane's track took it over slightly warmer waters, along with favorable jet interaction, allowed for modest intensification on September 4. Eldad intensified further into a category 2 hurricane, reaching its peak intensity with winds of 105 mph and a barometric pressure of 962 millibars on September 5. Eldad immediately began extratropical transition just a few hours after peaking as it passed over drastically decreasing sea surface temperatures. Late on September 5, Eldad completed extratropical transition, becoming a large and powerful extratropical cyclone just south of the southernmost tip of Newfoundland. The extratropical cyclone continued northeast over the north Atlantic while gradually weakening, eventually passing over Iceland before dissipating on September 8.
Eldad brough rip currents and dangerous surf to parts of the Bahamas, the United States east coast, Atlantic Canada, and Bermuda during its lifetime. The system also brought minor impacts as an extratropical cyclone to parts of Newfoundland, with some locations reporting up to 50 mph wind gusts. Damages were minimal, however, and no fatalities were reported.
Tropical Depression Five[]
| Tropical depression (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | August 25 – August 27 |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 35 mph (55 km/h) (1-min) 1007 mbar (hPa) |
On August 23, a tropical wave exited the west coast of Africa. The wave was immediately given a high chance of formation during the next seven days. The wave moved quickly westward, passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands while rapidly organizing. On August 25, it was upgraded into Tropical Depression Five, and much like the depression before it, was forecast to reach minimal tropical storm strength over the central tropical Atlantic despite less-than favorable conditions. Dry air prevented further intensification as Five moved quickly toward the west-northwest, and it retained its intensity for the following two days. Wind shear increased slightly on August 26, inducing slight weakening. The following day, Five degenerated into a remnant low as convection became increasingly limited northeast of the low-level circulation. The remnant continued generally toward the west-northwest over the next few days before opening up into a trough of low pressure.
Five never impacted land during its lifetime, though squally weather was reported in the Cabo Verde Islands as the precursor wave passed to the south.
Hurricane Dolly[]
| Category 1 hurricane (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | August 26 – August 31 |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 85 mph (140 km/h) (1-min) 976 mbar (hPa) |
On August 20, the NHC noted the possibility of a tropical disturbance developing in the Bay of Campeche within the next seven days. The area was marked with a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within the following week. On August 23, an area of low pressure formed over the Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance meandered westward and began displaying signs of organization on August 25. The following day, a tropical depression had developed, the sixth of the season. The depression moved northward and quickly intensified amid very favorable conditions. It attained tropical storm status and was named Dolly late on August 26. Dolly continued to steadily intensify as it moved slowly northward on August 27. As Dolly approached the central Gulf of Mexico on August 28, it quickly accelerated northeastward as a trough began to interact with it. Dolly attained hurricane intensity late on August 28 as it continued northeastward over the central Gulf of Mexico. On August 29, Dolly reached its peak intensity with winds of 85 mph and a barometric pressure of 976 millibars. Wind shear began to increase on August 30, and Dolly began to weaken as it approached the United States Gulf Coast and decelerated. As Dolly neared the Alabama/Florida coast, the trough that had been guiding it located over the central United States stalled, causing the hurricane to decelerate considerably. Dolly made landfall near Pensacola, Florida on August 30 as a minimal hurricane with winds of 75 mph. Dolly weakened as it moved slowly inland, turning northward on August 31 and passing through Alabama as a weak tropical storm. Dolly eventually degenerated into a remnant low on August 31, briefly turning northward before resuming a northeastward track as the trough began to move again. The remnants moved over the southern Appalachian region before ultimately dissipating on September 2 over North Carolina.
The precursor disturbance of Dolly brough minor impacts to parts of Central America, though damages were minimal, and 2 fatalities occurred. In the southeastern United States, Dolly's most severe impacts were from torrential downpours as a result of the system nearly stalling in the area over a four-day period. In the Florida Panhandle where the hurricane made landfall, storm surges reached 6 feet, causing extensive damages to ports and other coastal structures. Rainfall totals reached over 16.5 inches in parts of Alabama and Florida, causing significant flooding damages to many cities and neighborhoods. Dolly also brought severe weather and tornadoes to much of southern and central Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and western Georgia, with 10 strong tornadoes reported on August 31. One of these tornadoes, rated an EF4, ravaged through the city of Opelika, Alabama on August 31, devastating much of the city. Winds from this tornado are estimated to have reached as high as 169 mph, making it the strongest tornado to be spawned by a tropical cyclone. Dolly also brought significant flooding to parts of Tennessee, northern Georgia, and North Carolina, with a total of 8.3 inches of rain reported in Dalton, Georgia. Damages from Dolly slightly exceeded $25 billion (USD), with the majority of these damages reported in Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A total of 97 fatalities are attributed to Dolly, most of which were related to the significant flooding and tornadoes in southern Alabama.
Tropical Depression Seven[]
| Tropical depression (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | September 3 – September 5 |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 35 mph (55 km/h) (1-min) 1006 mbar (hPa) |
On August 29, a tropical wave exited the west coast of Africa. The wave tracked steadily westward and began to show signs of development on September 1. On September 3, the system began to turn northwestward and was upgraded into Tropical Depression Seven. The depression was forecast to peak as a minimal tropical storm before encountering strong wind shear over the central Atlantic. The depression failed to intensify further as it continued northwestward, and wind shear began to impact the system on September 5. Later that day, convection was nearly completely diminished from the depression, prompting its degeneration into a remnant low. The remnant persisted for several more hours before opening up into a trough of low pressure on September 6.
Seven never impacted land during its lifetime.
Tropical Storm Farah[]
| Tropical storm (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | September 15 – September 18 |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min) 1001 mbar (hPa) |
On September 12, a tropical wave emerged off the west coast of Africa. The wave tracked generally westward and began to slowly show signs of organization. On September 15 at 00:00z, it was classified as a tropical depression, though in post-season analysis it was still not yet a tropical cyclone. Six hours later, it was upgraded into Tropical Storm Farah after gale-force winds were discovered. Located in favorable conditions for intensification, Farah began strengthening, reaching its peak intensity with winds of 50 mph and a barometric pressure of 1001 millibars early on September 16. The window for intensification was limited, as Farah moved northwestward into a less favorable environment consisting of very dry air and moderate wind shear. Farah began weakening on September 16 as it ingested dry air, causing convection to become increasingly disorganized. Farah fell below tropical storm strength on September 17 as it began to decelerate and turn northward due to a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The depression turned northwestward once again on September 18 as it moved into an area of high wind shear. Later on September 18, Farah degenerated into a remnant low after losing almost all of its associated deep convection. The remnant continued northwestward for another day before opening up into a trough of low pressure.
Farah never impacted land during its lifetime.
Hurricane Gonzalo[]
| Category 2 hurricane (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | September 22 – September 30 |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 105 mph (165 km/h) (1-min) 965 mbar (hPa) |
On September 16, a tropical wave emerged off of the coast of Africa. The wave tracked westward over the next few days and began to show signs of organization on September 20. On September 22, organization increased enough for the system to be classified as a tropical depression. Favorable conditions allowed for quick intensification as the system turned northwestward, and it was upgraded into Tropical Storm Gonzalo just six hours later. Gonzalo quickly strengthened as it continued northwestward, attaining hurricane intensity on September 24 while it passed sevener hundred northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Gonzalo turned northward around the periphery of the subtropical ridge while continuing to intensify. It reached category 2 status on September 25 and further attained its operational peak intensity with winds of 105 mph and a barometric pressure of 970 millibars. Gonzalo then turned northeastward as a weak trough approached from the northwest. This caused the hurricane to decelerate while also inducing moderate wind shear. Gonzalo fell below category 2 status as it continued generally northeastward on September 26. As the trough weakened and Gonzalo approached the mid-latitude westerly flow, it began to intensify once again. Gonzalo reached category 2 intensity again on September 28 while beginning to accelerate quickly to the northeast. Gonzalo attained its peak intensity with winds of 105 mph and a barometric pressure of 965 millibars late on September 28. Weakening began as Gonzalo passed over decreasing sea-surface temperatures and into the higher latitudes. The hurricane quickly accelerated northeastward and passed west of the Azores while undergoing extratropical transition. On September 30, Gonzalo completed extratropical transition situated a few hundred miles north of the Azores. The extratropical cyclone continued northeast and eventually turned eastward over the north Atlantic. The remnants of the cyclone moved over Ireland on October 2 before dissipating several hours later.
As a tropical cyclone, Gonzalo never impacted land, though rip currents were reported in the Leeser Antilles and Bermuda. Gonzalo's extratropical remnants brought stormy weather to Ireland, though damages were minimal, and no fatalities were reported.
Hurricane Heather[]
| Category 1 hurricane (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | November 8 – November 12 |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 90 mph (150 km/h) (1-min) 964 mbar (hPa) |
On October 31, a late season tropical wave exited the west coast of Africa. The wave tracked erratically westward over the next week, with wind shear limiting significant development during this time. However, the NHC noted the possibility of tropical cyclone development over the central Atlantic as the wave moved northwestward, and it was given a low chance of development during the next seven days. Despite moderate wind shear, the wave began to show signs of development on November 6 as it moved northwestward, adjacent to the Lesser Antilles. On November 8, the system was designated as a tropical depression despite a somewhat disorganized appearance on satellite imagery. The depression continued northwestward and slowly became better organized as wind shear began to lighten. On November 9, the depression intensified into Tropical Storm Heather as conditions improved. Heather decelerated as it began to turn northward and then northeastward. Unusually favorable conditions allowed Heather to intensify steadily, and it attained hurricane intensity on November 10 as it passed a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. Continued intensification occurred as Heather accelerated amid mid-latitude westerly flow, and it attained a peak intensity with winds of 90 mph on November 11. Heather began to weaken on November 12 as it moved over decreasing sea surface temperatures and began extratropical transition. Despite a decrease in winds, Heather's rapidly growing size allowed pressures to continue to drop, bottoming out at 964 millibars on November 12 just before it transitioned into an extratropical cyclone. The extratropical cyclone began merging with another system shortly afterward as it raced far to the east of Newfoundland. By the morning of November 13, Heather had completely merged with the other extratropical cyclone, which continued east-northeast across the north Atlantic before eventually impacting Norway several days later.
Heather never directly impacted land, though it did bring rip currents and squally weather to Bermuda and Newfoundland as it passed by. No damages or fatalities were reported.
Subtropical Depression Eleven[]
| Subtropical depression (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | November 20 – November 22 |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 35 mph (55 km/h) (1-min) 1002 mbar (hPa) |
On November 19, an extratropical cyclone moved off the east coast of the United States. Warmer waters associated with the Gulf Stream allowed the cyclone to rapidly take on subtropical characteristics as it curved quickly toward the west, and Subtropical Depression Eleven was designated on November 20. The depression was forecast to intensify into a subtropical storm as it looped once again back toward the east. Despite an impressive satellite appearance, sustained gale-force winds were never found in the system. The depression encountered very strong wind shear generated by a larger extratropical cyclone to its northwest, resulting in degeneration to a post-tropical cyclone on November 22. The cyclone passed north of Bermuda as it curved around the periphery of the larger cyclone on November 23. It turned northward and northwest on November 24, approaching Newfoundland later that day before dissipating a few hours later. The remnant moisture was subsequently absorbed into the other system.
Eleven brought minor impacts to the east coast of the United States, as well as squally weather to Bermuda. Impacts were relatively minor, though one fatality occurred offshore of Bermuda due to rip currents generated by the nearby storm. Light rainfall was reported from the remnant moisture of Eleven in Newfoundland, though no damages were reported.
Storm names[]
The following list of names was used for named storms that formed in the North Atlantic in 2038. This was the same list used in the 2032 season, with the exception of the names Cameron, Eldad, Mordecai, and Ron, which replaced the names Cristobal, Edouard, Marco, and Rodney, respectively. The names Cameron and Eldad were used for the first time this year.
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Retirement[]
On April 15, 2039, during the 61st Session of the RA IV Hurricane Commitee, the World Meteorological Organization retired the names Arthur and Dolly due to the devastation and loss of life those storms caused, and they will never be used again for another Atlantic hurricane. These names were replaced with Alistair and Dahlia for the 2044 Atlantic hurricane season.
Season effects[]
| Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale | ||||||
| TD | TS | C1 | C2 | C3 | C4 | C5 |
| Storm name |
Dates active | Storm category at peak intensity |
Max 1-min wind mph (km/h) |
Min. press. (mbar) |
Areas affected | Damage (USD) |
Deaths | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur | May 15 - 21 | Subtropical storm | 50 | 999 | Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Bahamas | $7.6 billion | 132 | |||
| Bertha | August 16 - 17 | Tropical storm | 40 | 1005 | Leeward and Windward Islands | None | None | |||
| Cameron | August 17 - 23 | Tropical storm | 70 | 998 | Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Appalachian Region, Atlantic Canada | $98 million | 3 | |||
| Eldad | August 21 - September 5 | Category 2 hurricane | 105 | 962 | Lesser and Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, United States east coast, Atlantic Canada | Minimal | None | |||
| Five | August 25 - 27 | Tropical depression | 35 | 1007 | Cabo Verde Islands | None | None | |||
| Dolly | August 26 - 31 | Category 1 hurricane | 85 | 976 | Central America, Southeastern United States | $25 billion | 97 | |||
| Seven | September 3 - 5 | Tropical depression | 35 | 1006 | None | None | None | |||
| Farah | September 15 - 18 | Tropical storm | 50 | 1001 | None | None | None | |||
| Gonzalo | September 22 - 30 | Category 2 hurricane | 105 | 965 | Ireland | Miniaml | None | |||
| Heather | November 8 - 12 | Category 1 hurricane | 90 | 964 | Bermuda, Newfoundland | None | None | |||
| Eleven | November 20 - 22 | Subtropical depression | 35 | 1002 | United States east coast, Bermuda, Newfoundland | None | 1 | |||
| Season aggregates | ||||||||||
| - | May 15 - November 22 | 105 | 962 | $32.7 billion | 233 | |||||