Cyclone Warwick is slowly moving east-northeastwards offshore of Mozambique. It is expected to become a Category 2-equivalent cyclone on Saturday. Interestingly, Warwick's pressure has raised a bit, even though it has not weakened a lot. (Winds: 90 mph, Pressure: 958 mb)
Tropical Storm Oswald formed on April 17, 2024. It is not expected to strengthen rapidly due to some moderate wind shear. (Winds: 45 mph, Pressure: 1006 mb)
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On a tight schedule, so I apologize for the inconvenience.
Just Updated
Its only mid-April and the season's first name list is already almost exhausted. 2024 may be the first year an Aux4 list is used. It is the first year an Aux4 list is being planned. Lists do not need to follow any pattern and can have any letter sequence.
Cyclone Warwick has leveled off in intensity starting 18 hours ago. Could it strengthen further as it moves toward Mozambique? Eh, we don't know. We predict that it will only marginally strengthen to 115 mph. (Winds: 110 mph, Pressure: 936 mb)
Where's Tropical Storm 28S? 28S never became a tropical storm, and it dissipated as a tropical cyclone late on April 13. I forgot to put the remnants of the storm, my apologies. (Tropical Storm 28S lasted from April 12-13.)
As you can see, there's quite a bit of invests in the South-West Indian Ocean. Since there is a lot of wind shear and dry air out to sea at this time of year, we tend to focus on things closer to land.
In September of last year, I developed a scale to rank the danger of a tropical cyclone based on winds, pressure, damage, and fatalities. It's extremely flawed, as it can only work for cyclones several months prior, so let me know any possible improvements to make to the scale in the comments. Guide to the scale is at the tagged article.
Here are the measurements so far for 2024:
Anggrek
12 points total
Classification: Medium
Belal
11 points total
Classification: Medium
Kirrily
6 points total
Classification: Decent
Candice
5 points total
Classification: Safe
05
2 points total
Classification: Safe
05F
3 points total
Classification: Safe
Nat
3 points total
Classification: Safe
Osai
4 points total
Classification: Safe
10F
3 points total
Classification: Safe
Lincoln
3 points total
Classification: Safe
Djoungou
12 points total
Classification: Medium
Akara
3 points total
Classification: Safe
Eleanor
4 points total
Classification: Safe
Filipo
6 points total
Classification: Decent
Neville
12 points total
Classification: Medium
Megan
9 points total
Classification: Decent
Gamane
12 points total
Classification: Medium
Again, here is the guide:
With Andrew done and dusted, the DAtl is once again quiet
Tropical Storm Warwick has stalled, and it has surprisingly weakened a bit. We estimate that Warwick will restrengthen, but not reach cyclone status as it will likely move north-northwestwards in the next coming days. (Winds: 45 mph, Pressure: 990 mb)
Cyclone 28S has already peaked, and it is rapidly weakening from strong wind shear. It is likely to degenerate into a trough today as it moves slowly southeastwards. [Peak intensity: Winds: 45 mph, Pressure: 1011 mb] (Winds: 40 mph, Pressure: 1012mb)
Check the linked page to see if your names survived the round!
Hurricane Idol/Season 24 (XXIV) | Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki | Fandom
Rapidly intensified to a Category 1-equivalent storm late on April 13.
Winds: 90 mph
Pressure: 954 mb
It is moving west-northwest, towards Mozmbique.
Andrew (60/997) strengthened a little but has turned post-tropical this morning, expected to bring some cloudiness to Bermuda as it heads OTS
Andrew (45/1001) has weakened as it heads OTS, expected to turn post-tropical over the weekend, remnants could bring some light rainfall and cloudiness to Bermuda, elsewhere the DAtl is quiet as we are still in the off-season
IT'S TIME...
Welcome again, everyone! It has been 2 months since this series started. Isn't that crazy? Although this isn't the grand finale, it's the last battle of the first half of this competition. This is also the last time that this format will be used for CB24. Sad :(
Last time, the Atlantic and North Indian Ocean tied for the bronze, leading to the second voting battle of the competition. The Atlantic won the competition, at a score of 6 - 1! The Atlantic basin has officially won the bronze medal, and third place in this competition. Now, let's begin for the last time this year! And, yes, there will be another one next year.
Hagibis vs. Isla
Wind Speed - Hagibis (185 mph)
Pressure - Hagibis (890 mbar)
Damage - Hagibis ($17.3 billion)
Fatalities - Hagibis (118 confirmed)
Time Active - Hagibis (18 days)
Hagibis wins (5 - 0)
1 - 0 total
Doksuri vs. Jasper
Wind Speed - Doksuri (140 mph)
Pressure - Doksuri (926 mbar)
Damage - Doksuri ($28.4 billion)
Fatalities - Doksuri (137 confirmed)
Time Active - Jasper (16 days)
Doksuri wins (4 - 1)
2 - 0 total
Doksuri vs. Jasper
Wind Speed - Doksuri (140 mph)
Pressure - Doksuri (926 mbar)
Damage - Doksuri ($28.4 billion)
Fatalities - Doksuri (137 confirmed)
Time Active - Jasper (16 days)
Doksuri wins (4 - 1)
2 - 0 total
Muifa vs. Ferdinand
Wind Speed - Muifa (125 mph)
Pressure - Muifa (946 mbar)
Damage - Muifa ($437 million)
Fatalities - Muifa (3 confirmed)
Time Active - Muifa (14 days)
Muifa wins (5 - 0)
3 - 0 total
In-fa vs. Damien
Wind Speed - Tied (110 mph)
Pressure - In-fa (951 mbar)
Damage - In-fa ($1 billion)
Fatalities - In-fa (6 confirmed)
Time Active - In-fa (16 days)
In-fa wins (4 - 0)
4 - 0 total
Hagupit vs. Seroja
Wind Speed - Tied (85 mph)
Pressure - Seroja (968 mbar)
Damage - Hagupit ($1.5 billion)
Fatalities - Seroja (272 confirmed)
Time Active - Hagupit (15 days)
Tied game (2 - 2)
4 - 0 total
Megi vs. Seth
Wind Speed - Seth (65 mph)
Pressure - Seth (988 mbar)
Damage - Megi ($200 million)
Fatalities - Megi (214 confirmed)
Time Active - Seth (15 days)
Seth wins (2 - 3)
4 - 1 total
WPAC team wins 4 - 1 against AUS team
WPAC TEAM WINS CB24!
We will now move into the second phase of the competition: Last Cyclone Standing (as I have begun calling it). This is an all-voting period which will start at 00:00 UTC on April 20, 2024.
Thank you for reading the first phase of CB24!
Cyclone Warwick has strengthened, and it is likely to reach cyclone status as it nears Madagascar. It has avoided crossing the archipelago of Bassas da India by turning south of the islands. It is anticipated to slowly turn southwards again. (Winds: 65 mph, Pressure: 972 mb)
Tropical Depression 28S has formed and is only expected to reach a peak of 40 mph as it moves slowly westwards. (Winds: 35 mph, Pressure: 1013 mb)
Andrew (65 mph/994) has formed off of the US East coast this morning, expected to weaken as it heads eastward OTS so it has likely peaked upon formation, not expected to have much of a impact on land with the primary hazards being swells up to six feet and some isolated coastal showers, Andrew's remnants do not pose much threat to Bermuda but could bring inclement weather there (Disclaimer: This is an abridged version please refer to the advisory page for more information)
North Atlantic: A very above average season
21 tropical storms
10 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes
East Pacific: A near-average season
16 tropical storms
8 hurricanes
4 major hurricanes
North Indian Ocean: A slightly above average season
8 tropical storms
6 tropical cyclones
4 Category 1-equivalent cyclones
2 major hurricane-equivalent cyclones
West Pacific: A slightly below average season
24 tropical storms
13 typhoons
7 major hurricane-equivalent typhoons
Degenerated into a remnant low on April 10
Winds: 30 mph
Pressure: 1009 mb
90L currently over the Gulf Stream models are confident that this'll become a hurricane hunters found a intensity of 45/1002 which means if it does develop into a STC it'll become a SS and obtain the name Andrew which is the first name on the list, the system does not pose a serious threat to land but will bring with it rainfall possibly up to 8 inches in low-lying areas, winds gusting up to HU force even if it doesn't become a HU itself, and swells up to 6ft, coastal flooding is also a threat the system poses before the area of high pressure steering weakens and allows the system to head out to sea where it will likely dissipate as it encounters unfavorable conditions particularly shear and cooler waters, hurricane hunters will be investigating the system later this morning, chance of formation 50/70 (This is a abridged version of the TWO so it can fit on Discord, please prefer to the advisory page for the DAtl for more information)
Tropical Storm Warwick is near Bassas da India (an area of uninhabited islands in the Mozambique Channel). Due to moderate wind shear, we expect the system to strengthen little, if any as it potentially moves east-northeastwards. (Winds: 50 mph, Pressure: 983 mb)
Cyclone John is weakening from its peak intensity from April 7, 2024 [Peak intensity: Winds: 155 mph, Pressure: 932 mb]. It should continue to rapidly weaken from strong wind shear, dry air, and cooler sea-surface temperatures. (Winds: 105 mph, Pressure: 963 mb)
Invest 90L is organizing and could become a SS as it moves over the Gulf Stream, formation area expanded due to the possibly it could move closer to land then previously expected, could bring rainfall up to 9 inches and see winds gusting up to hurricane force impact the coast, coastal erosion and swells up to 6 feet are expected, but isn't expected to pose a serious threat to land as it is expected to eastward and OTS into cooler waters and unfavorable conditions, shall it become a SS (models don't expect it to become a SD) it'll be named Andrew, hurricane hunters will investigate the system this evening, chance of formation 0/40 (this is an abridged version, please refer to the DAtl TWO page for more information)
Expected to head SE as a strong area of high pressure moves it, could become a SD or SS before it heads OTS into unfavorable conditions and dissipates, it could begin organizing soon as it hits the Gulf Stream which would give it more time to strengthen, will bring heavy rain (7-11 inches) to the US eastern seaboard along with rough surf (3-6ft) and strong winds and possibly the northern Bahamas as well, current formation area is around FL and the Bahamas, but other then some inclement conditions and coastal hazards the system is not expected to pose a serious threat to land, chance of formation 0/20