| Category 5 major hurricane (SSHWS/NWS) | |
 Caleb at peak intensity | |
| Formed | September 19, 2048 |
|---|---|
| Dissipated | October 1, 2048 |
| Highest winds | 1-minute sustained: 185 mph (295 km/h) |
| Lowest pressure | 892 mbar (hPa); 26.34 inHg |
| Fatalities | 3,192 |
| Damage | $210 Billion (2048) |
| Areas affected | United States, Puerto Rico and New England, Lesser Antilles |
| Part of the 2048 Atlantic hurricane season | |
Hurricane Caleb was a powerful and catastrophic hurricane that devastated the Lesser Antilles, before continuing northward and becoming the costliest hurricane to ever strike New York. It was the 24th tropical storm, 15th hurricane, and 7th major hurricane of the extremely active 2048 Atlantic hurricane season. Caleb started the largest humanitarian crisis within the United States since Hurricane Teresa of 2021, after causing 210 billion dollars in damage and over 1,000 deaths across the United States. Peaking with winds of 185 mph and a pressure of 892 millibars, Caleb was one of the strongest and most intense Atlantic hurricanes on record. The impacts of Caleb influenced the start of the Second American Civil War.
Caleb began as a tropical wave that developed off of the western coast of Africa, near the Cape Verde Islands. The wave continued westward, and became a tropical depression on 19 September. On 20 September, the depression attained gale-force winds, and the National Hurricane Center gave the storm the name Caleb. Caleb explosively intensified as it moved westward, becoming a Category 5 hurricane just 48 hours after its designation as a tropical storm. On 23 September, Caleb made landfall on Dominica at peak intensity, destroying as much as 40% of the infrastructure on the island. A day later, on the 24th, Caleb made landfall in Puerto Rico with winds of 160 mph, becoming the state’s worst natural disaster, surpassing Maria of 2017. Caleb weakened significantly, although intensified into a Category 4 hurricane on the 27th, north of The Bahamas. Caleb continued northward, and made landfall on Long Island on the 30th, inundating New York City in several feet of water. Caleb rapidly weakened as it continued inland, undergoing an extratropical transition on 1 October.
The effects of Hurricane Caleb had an incredible socioeconomic impact. Millions of citizens took to the streets, protesting economic and government reform, as well as increased funding of government-owned weather and climate agencies. The NOAA administrator at the time resigned, claiming he had “failed to protect the American population” from the devastating effects of the hurricane. Furthermore, thousands of people gathered outside of the National Hurricane Center headquarters in Miami, claiming political bias in its forecasts. The government response to the catastrophe induced by Caleb was also poor, refusing to aid Puerto Rico, causing famine and unrest, including riots in the streets of San Juan. The governor of New York took full control of the recovery process in the aftermath of the storm, despite asking for support from the federal government. The Jacobs Administration publicly announced on October 5 that recovery was up to the individual states, and that there would be no economic support towards recovery.
Meteorological history[]
Map plotting the track and the intensity of the storm, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale
On 16 September, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began monitoring a tropical wave that formed off the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verde Islands. Original model guidance showed the system moving north and out to sea, however a high pressure system located east of Bermuda steered the storm to the west. On 17 September, the tropical wave continued to develop, producing increased convection around its center. Later that day, the NHC declared the wave a Potential Tropical Cyclone, seeing its possible effects in the Lesser Antilles. The wave continued to develop, and on 19 September it became the 24th tropical depression of the year. Tropical Depression Twenty-Four, as the system was called, was expected to be around Category 1 intensity near its pass to the Lesser Antilles, however the NHC explicitly mentioned the possibility of rapid intensification. A day later, on 20 September, Twenty-Four was given the name Caleb after it attained gale-force winds, becoming a tropical storm.
Caleb at peak intensity, making landfall in Dominica
Caleb became a hurricane just 18 hours later, and began its rapid intensification. At the start of 21 September, Caleb was a Category 2 hurricane, but by the end of the day it reached Category 5 status, with winds of 160 mph. The storm’s intensification continued until it made landfall in Dominica at peak intensity, becoming the strongest hurricane ever recorded to make landfall on the island. Caleb weakened slightly, but reintensified briefly before making a second landfall in Puerto Rico. Thousands of structures were destroyed in Puerto Rico after catastrophic flooding tormented the island for weeks after Caleb’s original landfall.
After affecting Puerto Rico, Caleb moved to the northeast and threatened landfall in the Bahamas. The NHC originally anticipated a possible landfall, however Caleb stayed just to the east of the islands and ultimately brought only tropical-storm force winds. Hurricane warnings were issued for the coast of North Carolina and the Delmarva Peninsula, as Caleb passed by these areas on the 28th. Caleb stalled just south of the Outer Banks of North Carolina, before making a turn to the northeast.
Caleb making landfall in New York
On 30 September, Caleb made its historic landfall on Long Island, becoming the strongest hurricane to ever make landfall in the state of New York. Flooding occurred in many parts of New England, especially in New York and Connecticut. Wind gusts of up to 120 mph were reported in Islip, New York, where storm surge flushed as far as 2,000 feet inland, causing catastrophic damage to the area. Caleb eventually continued northward, and became extratropical on 1 October, where its remnants brought rain to areas of Quebec.
Preparations[]
Dominica[]
While Caleb was rapidly intensifying, the government of Dominica issued Hurricane Warnings for the entirety of the island, preparing for the incoming effects of the storm. Schools were also closed due to the uncertainty of its intensity while passing near the island.
Puerto Rico[]
Still recovering from the impacts of Hurricane Maria several decades earlier, the governor of Puerto Rico made a statement about the possible impacts of Caleb. She stated that, while the storm was still weak, citizens of the state should still take the proper precautions to prepare for the storm. On 22 September, the government of Puerto Rico declared a state of emergency for possibly catastrophic impacts from Caleb. President Jacobs issued a state of emergency for the entirety of the country, and suspended all flights to Puerto Rico as a result. Because of this, many were stuck stranded on the island with no way to escape.
All schools on the island were closed until the passing of the storm, and many schools were used as shelters for those needing adequate shelter. Many hotels and resorts were opened to the public as shelters with food and rooms to sleep in.
Mainland United States[]
The Jacobs Administration issued a state of emergency for the entirety of the country, closing international all flights, including Puerto Rico, despite its recent admission as the 51st state. This was met with intense criticism by both Democrats and Republicans. Hurricane Warnings were issued for the US Virgin Islands, although the hurricane-force winds ultimately passed several miles to the south of the islands. On 27 September, as Caleb neared the mainland, the governors of Georgia, South Carolina, and Virginia issued their own states of emergency, followed by Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut the following day. The states of Florida, Vermont, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire, along with every state under an emergency, closed schools in preparation of Caleb.
Ongoing evacuation, heading into New York City
The mayor of New York City declared a separate state of emergency, citing the unprecedented intensity at which Caleb was expected to affect the city. Citizens were urged by NOAA and other agencies to evacuate, however many people headed the warnings and refused to do so. To make problems worse, President Jacobs claimed that the storm was “no big deal”, and that there “[was] nothing to worry about”, in an attempt to ease the citizen’s panic.
Impact in the Caribbean[]
Lesser Antilles[]
The islands of Dominica and Guadeloupe were most heavily affected by Hurricane Caleb. Roseau, the capital of Dominica, faced incredible damage and loss of life after Caleb passed over the city as a Category 5 hurricane. Strong winds and storm surge battered the city for hours, inundating the city in several metres of water. Roseau recorded rainfall of up to 300 millimetres, or around a foot, during the impacts of Caleb. Guadeloupe, an island with high poverty rates, also saw catastrophic effects from the hurricane. Hundreds of people went missing on the island, eliminating a large percentage of its workforce. Furthermore, with the island’s main port and airport heavily damaged, resources and help could not safely reach the island for several weeks, further worsening the state of the disaster.
Puerto Rico[]
- See also: Puerto Rican War for Independence § Reasons of succession
Puerto Rico was severely affected by Hurricane Caleb. Thousands of Puerto Rican citizens died from the effects of the storm, mostly including flooding. Many rural villages were completely destroyed by landslides that occurred from the torrential rainfall. The Puerto Rican government set up emergency shelters and camps that provided tents for shelter, as well as food for those whose residences were destroyed or damaged. President Jacobs refused to send national support and aid to Puerto Rico, including agencies such as FEMA, which crippled the state for months. While not as effective, some private agencies such as the American Red Cross and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation provided aid and money to the island to help with the recovery effort.
The energy capability of Puerto Rico completely collapsed after Caleb. Power outages affected nearly the entire population, and in many areas power was never re-established. Food became scarce, however later during the crisis, nations like the United Kingdom, France, and Germany sent help to Puerto Rico.
Impact in the Mainland United States[]
See also: Causes of the Second American Civil War
The effects of Hurricane Caleb in the United States were widespread and catastrophic, especially in New England. Much of the east coast was affected, bringing heavy casualties and damage to areas affected.
Mid-Atlantic[]
The Eastern Seaboard of the United States experienced catastrophic damage from Hurricane Caleb. After its passing, the Pee Dee river in North Carolina flooded to levels twice its normal height, which devastated infrastructure around the banks of the river. The United States government sent FEMA teams to help support communities affected by Caleb, and set up temporarily shelters for those whose residencies were damaged or destroyed in the storm.