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Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki
Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki
Hurricane Chris
Category 4 major hurricane (SSHWS/NWS)
C4 150 mph Havoc
Chris at peak intensity several hours from landfall on August 10, 2024.
FormedAugust 4, 2024
DissipatedAugust 16, 2024
Highest winds1-minute sustained:
150 mph (240 km/h)
Lowest pressure933 mbar (hPa); 27.55 inHg
Fatalities37 total
Damage$126 billion (2024 USD)
Areas affectedMexico, Eastern United States (especially Texas, Louisiana)
Part of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

Hurricane Chris was an unusual yet powerful hurricane that became the second major hurricane to impact Texas and then stall over the state in recent times. The storm became the costliest tropical cyclone on record (beating Harvey of 2017 and Katrina of 2005), causing $126 billion (2024 USD), mostly across Texas and the Houston metropolitan area. Chris resulted in 17,000 rescues being conducted in Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana along with 235,000 people evacuating. In a 2-day period, Chris dropped as much as 40 inches (1,000 mm) over portions of Texas, with peak accumulations of 55.23 inches (1402.842 mm) in Wharton, Texas, making Chris the third wettest tropical cyclone on record in the United States (just behind Harvey of 2017 and Lane of 2018). It was the third nameable storm, second hurricane and second major hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, and originated from a surface trough that developed off the coast of Louisiana on August 25, gradually organizing as it moved southwest over the coming days and developing into a tropical depression late on August 4. The following day NOAA Hurricane Hunters found the system had become significantly better organized at the surface but had not reached gale-force winds. Later that day it moved ashore and wouldn't reenter the Bay of Campeche until exactly a day later as it pulled northward. At 12:00 UTC August 8, a ship found winds of 35 mph (65 km/h) with satellite estimates supporting such and thus the NHC named the system "Chris".

Chris continued to intensify as it entered August 9 with the storm reaching major hurricane status at 12:00 UTC the same day. Rapid intensification then took hold, becoming a category 4 hurricane 6 hours later. The next day Chris reached peak intensity at 00:00 UTC August 10, with 1-minute winds of 150 mph (240 km/h) and 933 mbar. Once it reached its peak, Chris slowly weakened as wind shear from a Upper Level Low (ULL) increased. Chris then entered an eyewall replacement cycle shortly before 12:00 UTC that day causing its eye to degrade as it approached landfall, which happened around 18:05 UTC, near Galveston, Texas with winds of 125 mph (205 km/h) and a central pressure of 939 mbar. Chris then slowed down significantly due to 2 ridges to its east and north. The storms record rainfall then induced a Brown ocean effect, allowing Chris to maintain or barely weaken as it remained inland until moving offshore on August 13, falling below hurricane status and causing convection to become limited to its western side, exposing the storms lower level circulation. The following day at 18:00 UTC, the storm was downgraded to a tropical depression and it would move inland at 01:00 UTC on August 15 and dissipate exactly a day later. Chris would kill a total of 37 people, 15 in Mexico, and 22 in Texas for a total of 37 killed overall.

Meteorological history[]

Map plotting the track and the intensity of the storm, according to the .

Map plotting the track and the intensity of the storm, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale.

In the late July of 2024, forecasting models picked up an area of disturbed weather developing from a surface trough near Louisiana and moving southward into the Bay of Campeche and potentially developing into a brief tropical cyclone. The National Hurricane Center stated on July 29 that a surface trough could possibly organize into a low pressure area and move into the Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche later that week. 4 days later, the surface trough spawned a broad and disorganized low just off the coast of Louisiana. Model support for the system then increased, prompting the upgrade from a "0/10" chance of development into a "20/40" chance of formation. On August 1, the NHC designated the system Invest 96L as NOAA Hurricane Hunters found a more organized center. A scatterometer later that day indicated the low had further organized yet thunderstorm and shower activity remained disorganized.

Chris on August 9 rapidly intensifying

Chris on August 9 rapidly intensifying. Winds were estimated to be around 105 mph (265 km/h) with a central pressure of 960 mbar

On August 4 at 17:20 UTC, another Hurricane hunters flight into the storm found the storm had developed a closed, well-defined circulation and organized deep convection, prompting the NHC to upgrade the system to Tropical Depression Six, with forecasts calling for it to possibly attain gale-force winds before making landfall in Mexico on August 6 before dissipating inland. The following day tropical storm watches were issued for southern Mexico and the Yucatán Peninsula while models showed Six moving inland and turning back north under the influence of a building ridge to its east. Six made landfall on August 5 around 17:50 UTC as a tropical depression with radar and surface observations indicating little to no change in structure as the storm moved inland and began its northward turn, reentering the Bay of Campeche on August 7. At 12:00 UTC, satellite estimates and a ship observation indicated Six had become a tropical storm, causing the NHC to name it Chris. The storm then began to organize quicker then before, becoming a hurricane exactly a day later and entering a phase of rapid intensification on August 9, developing an eye as its winds increased and pressure dropped, gaining major hurricane status at 12:00 UTC and then category 4 status 6 hours later. Intensification continued and at 00:00 UTC August 10, NOAA Hurricane Hunters reported Chris reached winds of 150 mph (240 km/h) with an central pressure of 933 mbar. Chris would peak at this intensity, as increasing wind shear from a nearby Upper Level Low (ULL) along with an eyewall replacement cycle, caused the hurricanes eye to degrade and its intensity to fall from category 4 status after 12:00 UTC that day. At 18:05 UTC, Chris made landfall near Galveston, Texas with winds of 125 mph (205 km/h) and a central pressure of 939 mbar. Initially, post-landfall forecasts called for Chris to rapidly weaken once inland and move northward ahead of a cold front before dissipating, however a blocking ridge to the north and the existing one to the east trapped Chris causing it to slow down and induce a Brown ocean effect as it dumped record rainfall. It spent 2 days inland before reentering the Gulf of Mexico on August 13 after the eastern ridge collapsed, weakening as shear continued to give it issues. Chris was downgraded to a tropical depression at 00:00 UTC August 13 with only scattered bursts of convection keeping the storm a tropical cyclone before it moved inland the next day at 01:00 UTC. Chris dissipated early the following day over near the Louisiana-Alabama state line.

Preparations[]

Mexico[]

The Mexican government issued tropical storm watches on August 5 as Chris neared the coast as a tropical depression. These were later canceled after the system moved inland without gaining gale-force winds. However the northern fringes of Mexico were hit by flooding from Chris's outerbands as it became a major hurricane.

United States[]

The precursor to Chris initially brought thunderstorms and minor flooding to the mainland United States, prompting flash flood warnings and watches to be issued.

Chris making landfall as a Category 3 hurricane late on August 10

Chris making landfall as a Category 3 hurricane late on August 10. Winds were estimated to be around 125 mph (205 km/h) with a central pressure of 939 mbar

Texas[]

Late on August 8, Texas Governor Greg Abbott declared a state of emergency for the approaching storm. Hospitals were ordered to pre-stage for a major hurricane landfall and for some flooding. The following day he activated the state national guard and ordered mandatory evacuations for those in flood-prone areas and those along the coast. Later that day the Storm Prediction Center issued flash flood watches for most of coastal texas and inland areas with the NWS offices of the region issuing Storm Surge warnings and hurricane warnings. As the first outerbands arrived the following day, the NHC declared those who haven't finished preparing, to finish quickly due to the storm being expected to hit later that day. After landfall multiple flash flood emergency's were issued as Chris stalled over texas with the first known PDS Flash Flood Watch being issued for northern Texas. These were kept in effect 2 days after Chris cleared Texas.

Louisiana[]

On August 9 a Hurricane Watch was issued for portions of coastal portions of southwest Louisiana due to the threat of hurricane force winds. These were later replaced with tropical storm warnings which themselves were removed after Chris weakened below tropical storm intensity. Flood watches were issued along with Storm Surge warnings issued on August 10. Louisiana National Guard units were also sent to Texas to help in evacuations and preparations for the storm.

Impact[]

Deaths and damage by territory
Country/Territory Fatalities Damage
(2024 USD)
Mexico 15 $100 million
United States 22 $125.9 billion
Totals: 37 $126 billion

Mexico[]

Reports of mudslides and flooding came in from all over the areas impacted by Chris while still a tropical depression. Damages amounted to $100 million (2024) USD. 15 people were reported dead, 4 of them from a car crash caused by hydroplaning, 6 from a house being caught in a mudslide and 5 from drowning after they were caught in the storm.

United States[]

Chris caused 22 tornadoes in Texas and Louisiana with damage from the storm climbing to $125.900 billion (2024 USD).

Damage near Crystal Beach

Damage near Crystal Beach

Texas[]

On August 10, at 14:30 UTC tropical storm-force winds came onshore near Galveston, Texas with hurricane force following at 17:45 UTC. The first reports of major hurricane winds came in at 17:58 UTC and was followed by landfall a three minutes later. With a surge of 10 feet (3 m) and heavy rains, damage near Galveston was worse than predicted, with areas closest to the shore being left in rubble, where 5 people riding out the storm died. Surviving surface obs near Galveston recorded its lowest pressure reading at 18:02 UTC as the hurricanes eyewall passed over, reading as 943 mbar, suggesting the storm was weaker at landfall then NHC was saying. As winds from Chris spread inland, causing more damage, embedded thunderstorms in the storm began to produce tornadoes, with one being filmed briefly near Houston. A Few hours later an EF2 hit the outskirts of the city. Water Rescues all over police and fire scanners were present as many were caught in the historic flooding caused by Chris as it moved slowly over Texas. Texas City recorded a surge peak of 18.3 feet (5.57 m) however its been reported this was inflated by the city's setting near the Gulf.

Damage occurred areas near the Galveston region, with many towns completely damaged or destroyed. Chris caused a widespread catastrophic power failure causing the entire Texan Power Grid to fail as it was overloaded from the pre-landfall demand. NWS Houston was also forced to shut down and evacuate due to the storm and gave nearby NWS offices the ability to issue warnings in their place. Near Goat Island, almost any tree or cabin on it was damaged or wiped out, with a similar story to Crystal Beach. Peak rainfall totals amounted to 40 inches (1,000 mm) in most of Texas but Wharton, Texas recorded a peak of 55.23 inches (1402.842 mm). Port Arthur recorded a peak surge of 5.45 feet (1.66 m).

Louisiana[]

Louisiana recorded several tornadoes however most were weak and short-lived. Damages in the state were minimal and limited to gusty winds. However Chris did kill one person in the state due to a heart attack during a rescue attempt.

Retirement[]

Due to the mass loss of life and damage all over Texas, the name Chris was retired from the Atlantic rotating naming lists by the World Meteorological Organization on February 22, 2025, at the 43rd session of the RA IV hurricane committee, and shall be replaced with Camden for the 2030 Atlantic hurricane season.