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Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki
Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki
Hurricane Idalia
Category 4 major hurricane (SSHWS/NWS)
Idalia shortly before making landfall in Guyana on October 11.
FormedOctober 9, 2023
DissipatedOctober 13, 2023
(Remnant low after October 12)
Highest winds1-minute sustained:
145 mph (230 km/h)
Lowest pressure949 mbar (hPa); 28.02 inHg
Fatalities986 killed, 87 missing
Damage$14.5 billion (2023 USD)
Areas affectedFrench Guiana, Suriname, Guyana, Venezuela
Part of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

Hurricane Idalia was a small yet powerful tropical cyclone that struck northern parts of Guyana, as well as parts of Venezuela in the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. Being one of the closest tropical cyclones to develop to the Equator on record in the Atlantic basin, Idalia came out of a unusually far-southward forming tropical wave that originated off the coast of Africa in late September. The storm caused severe impacts across large parts of Guyana and Venezuela, being referenced as the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in Guyana on record. It was considered to have worsened the humanitarian crisis that had been going on in Venezuela for years, as Idalia's remnants caused catastrophic flash flooding and power outages. Idalia was unusually small, with a tropical storm force wind field of only around 75 to 80 miles at peak intensity, and a hurricane force wind field of only around 15 miles. In addition, although Idalia peaked with maximum sustained winds as high as 145 mph (230 km/h), it's pressure only dropped to 949 mbar, unusually high for a storm of that intensity.

Meteorological history[]

Hurricane Idalia (2023) (Blackford)

Map plotting the track and the intensity of the storm, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale.

On October 2, 2023, a small area of tropical showers and thunderstorms exited off the coast of Africa, originating over Sierra Leone. The National Hurricane Center made note of this disturbance on October 3, however noted that development was unlikely, due to the unusual location of the storm, only about 300 miles north of the Equator. However, as the small area of tropical showers and thunderstorms began to organize on October 4, the NHC increased the chances of development to 40%, making note that if it did develop, it'd become among the furthest south tropical cyclones to ever develop in the basin. By early on October 5, the system was over open waters, and fending off significant wind shear, with the NHC upgrading the system's chances of development to 60% on October 5. A more defined circulation appeared on satellite on October 5, and the French Air and Space Force sent a reconnaissance mission, the first of its kind from them, into the disturbance early on October 6. This reconnaissance mission made note that there was not a closed core, however it did make note that the system was in the stage of attempting to organize into a tropical cyclone. Basing their next update on this, the NHC upgraded the probabilities of formation to 80% on October 6, most models had the system becoming a short-lived tropical depression or storm that would be killed off by the wind shear set off by the Equator at this point in time. The area of low pressure began to gradually organize over the next day or so, with sufficient convection being noted by October 8 for the system to be classified a tropical cyclone, however ASCAT scans found that the low wasn't fully closed, and therefore the system was maintained as a invest that evening, although the chances of development were raised to 100% by the NHC early on October 9.

A tropical depression developed later that day, and was noted as a unusually small depression, as to be expected from a storm that had developed so far south. Over the next day, the depression continued to increase in organization and intensity, attaining tropical storm intensity later that day as it came unusually close to a landfall on French Guiana, with the southern rain bands of now Idalia producing heavy rainfall, flooding and even a few tornadoes in French Guiana. A very small eye, only about 5 miles across began to develop on October 10, and Idalia was declared to had rapidly intensified into a hurricane after a recon mission found winds of 80 mph in a small eyewall. Rapid intensification continued as the eye continued to increase in organization, and by October 11 the storm had attained major hurricane intensity north of Suriname, and continued to rapidly intensify despite it's proximity to land. The National Hurricane Center noted that Idalia was extremely well-organized for a storm in it's location and of it's size, and Idalia continued to strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane by October 11 as landfall approached on Guyana. Idalia's small size, which had once helped assist the storm's rapid intensification despite it's close proximity to the Equator became it's downfall after moving inland, with rapid weakening ensuing immediately after moving inland. Within 12 hours, the circulation of the storm had been torn apart and it was declared a remnant low, and it was declared to had diminished the following morning.

Impacts[]

Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea[]

Landslide in the southern highlands of PNG, 2012. Photo- AusAID (10707702415)

A landslide that occurred in Sierra Leone as a result of the precursor wave to Idalia.

The precursor wave to Idalia brought heavy rainfall to Sierra Leone, with Freetown recording 16.36 inches of rainfall. Landslides were reported across the country, with multiple people being killed after landslides destroyed their houses. The flooding in Sierra Leone was described as the worst in the country in years, with hundreds of buildings across the country being destroyed due to flood waters. Flooding was also reported in parts of neighboring Liberia and Guinea, with Monrovia, the capital of Liberia, recording 8.24 inches of rainfall, and an additional 3 people in Guinea being killed from landslides due to heavy rainfall.

French Guiana[]

Idalia narrowly avoided landfall on the French Overseas Territory of French Guiana, over October 9 and 10. Tropical storm force winds were reported across large parts of the territory, with the northern coast, including the capital of Cayenne, recording sustained winds of over hurricane force, with Cayenne recording winds as high as 104 mph (167 km/h). Heavy rainfall from Idalia caused significant flash flooding, and storm surge of 4–6 ft (1–2 m) being recorded, causing devastating damage in coastal communities. A few weak tornadoes were also recorded along the northern parts of the territory, and 28 people were killed across the territory from various disasters. Landslides destroyed roadways and communications infrastructure, leaving some communities isolated from the outside world for weeks. Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, declared a state of emergency for the overseas territory on October 11.

Suriname[]

As Idalia came closer to landfall, tropical storm and hurricane-force winds impacted much of the nation of Suriname on October 10 and 11. The capital city of Suriname, Paramaribo, recorded major hurricane-force winds of 114 mph (183 km/h) for over 30 minutes on October 11, with flash flooding and storm surge causing significant damage across large parts of the country. Many houses were completely destroyed, and at least 100 people were killed in Suriname from the storm. Several villages were reportedly wiped off the map by Idalia, and it was reported that Idalia had set Suriname as much as 5 years behind it's contemporaries in South America when it came to development.

Guyana[]

Perhaps the worst effected nation by Idalia, Guiana first started reporting impacts of Idalia late on October 10, as the outer rain bands brought tropical storm force winds to parts of the country. Conditions rapidly deteriorated on the morning of October 11, with sustained winds reaching well over 120 mph (193 km/h) in Georgetown by late that morning as the western eyewall impacted the city. Storm surge in Georgetown was so extreme that nearly 40% of the city was inundated, and flash flooding from Idalia caused widespread damage and landslides across Guyana. The intense eyewall battered most of northern Guyana, bringing winds of at times nearly 140 mph (225 km/h) to parts of the country. The death toll from Idalia in Guyana numbered nearly 600. Idalia made the first tropical or subtropical landfall in Guyana since record-keeping began in 1851.

Venezuela and Far Northern Brazil[]

Tropical storm force winds were felt in Venezuela as the rapidly weakening Idalia moved inland over Guyana, and with a wide swath of heavy rains being produced by the system, large parts of eastern Venezuela recorded near record daily rainfall totals, with Guayana City recording a new record daily rainfall total of 19.42 inches as the system moved inland. Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides left many towns and even cities in more rural parts of Venezuela completely disconnected from the outside world, with heavy rainfall also causing damage in far northern Brazil. However, on October 13, the remnants of Idalia diminished over Venezuela.

Aftermath[]

Idalia had wide-ranging impacts in South America, with Guyana and Suriname sustaining some of the worst damage they had ever sustained, even overtaking wartime. At least 986 people are known to have died, most in Guyana.

Retirement[]

The governments of France, Suriname, Guyana, and Venezuela requested that the name Idalia be retired due to the extensive damages caused across their countries. The name Idalia will never again be used for another Atlantic hurricane, it was replaced by Ira for use in the 2029 season. Idalia was one of a few Atlantic hurricane names to have only been used once, as it had been chosen to replace Irma after the 2017 season.