| Category 5 hurricane (SSHWS) | |
|---|---|
 Hurricane Josephine striking the Yucatan and slowing down. | |
| Formed | August 30, 2020 |
| Dissipated | September 16, 2020 |
| (Remnant low after September 13, 2020) | |
| Highest winds | 175 mph (280 km/h) |
| Lowest pressure | 913 mbar (26.96 inHg) |
| Fatalities | 167 |
| Damage | $34 billion |
| Areas affected | Lesser Antilles, Belize, Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, Gulf Coast of the United States (especially Louisiana and Mississippi) , Central United States |
| Part of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season | |
Hurricane Josephine was a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane that ravaged the Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf Coast in September 2020. After striking the Yucatan Peninsula, Josephine interacted with Hurricane Kyle, causing both storms to strike the Gulf Coast as major hurricanes within twenty-four hours of one another. Hurricane Josephine was the strongest storm to strike the Yucatan Peninsula since Hurricane Dean in 2007, and the wettest tropical cyclone in the Atlantic since Hurricane Harvey in 2017. It was also the second tropical cyclone to strike the Leeward Islands within seven days, after Hurricane Isaias. The combined effects of Hurricane Josephine and Tropical Storm Kyle brought additional heavy rain to areas struck by Tropical Storm Dolly eight weeks prior. Rainfall totals peaked near Mahahual in the Yucatan Peninsula due to Josephine slow movement near its brief landfall, reaching a maximum of 52.8 inches (1,341.12 mm). Hundreds of homes were washed away in Mexico from storm surge and flooding as Josephine moved onshore.
Josephine was the eleventh tropical depression, tenth named storm, sixth hurricane, second major, and first of two Category 5 hurricanes of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Its origins can be traced from a tropical wave that exited the African coast on August 25, which continued to slowly develop as it approached the Lesser Antilles. It became a tropical depression on August 31, and was named Josephine when it became a tropical storm on September 1. Josephine had a brief hurricane phase in the central Caribbean Sea, but ended up weakening back to a tropical storm due to dry air intrusion and some moderate shear. Once the system had passed south of Jamaica, Josephine began to intensify moderately at first, until it quickly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane twenty-four hours before landfall. With a developing Tropical Storm Kyle to its west, Josephine slowed down and turned to the northeast while nearly making a second major hurricane landfall in Cozumel. The hurricane then passed through the Yucatan Channel and restrengthened into a Category 4 hurricane. On September 13, Josephine made its final landfall as a 125 mph (200 km/h) Category 3 hurricane near Long Beach, Mississippi, and began to terminally weaken as it raced north-northeast into the Ohio Valley, where it became post-tropical and moved over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario on September 15 and 16.
Meteorological history[]
Map plotting the track and intensity of Hurricane Josephine, according to the Saffir-Simpson scale.
On August 23, a sizable area of unorganized showers and thunderstorms developed over central Africa before moving into the northern Atlantic ocean on August 25. The National Hurricane Center took note of this feature and marked it with a low chance of development over the next five days. Several days passed as the wave struggled, causing the National Hurricane Center to keep the formation chances at a low thirty percent over five days. The system began to rapidly develop a low-level center on August 28, but the wave still lacked a vertically stacked low-level and mid-level center. The National Hurricane Center began to raise the systems chances of development after it was about 3,500 miles (5,633 kilometers) from the Leeward Islands. On August 30, the system organized enough to be designated as Tropical Depression Ten around 20:50z on August 30. Ten made a jog to the southwest before becoming a tropical storm on August 31, earning the name Josephine.
Hurricane Josephine shortly after being upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane on September 2.
Tropical Storm Josephine's center passed between St. Lucia and St. Vincent & The Grenadines in the early morning hours of September 1, intensifying slowly at first. The system entered a favorable environment for a short period on September 2, and Josephine developed a nascent eye while being upgraded to a hurricane by noon. The system then started to encounter westerly shear, which made Josephine increasingly vulnerable to a small pocket of dry air located to its southwest. As a result of the dry air intrusion, Josephine weakened to a tropical storm by 12:00z on September 3. Its low level center became slightly exposed as dry air ate away at most of the central convection. Josephine continued to mix out the dry air as it moved generally westward towards Honduras, reintensifying after the storm bottomed out at 50 mph (80 km/h) with a central pressure of 1000 mbar (29.53 inHg).
Passing approximately 204 miles (328 kilometers) from the center of Jamaica, Josephine developed an eyewall and satellite estimates confirmed that the system had grown into a hurricane for the second time in its life. Josephine's eye cleared rapidly, causing it to become a Category 2 hurricane twelve hours later. On September 6 at 00:00z, Josephine intensified into a Category 3 major hurricane, the second of the season, as convection continued to cool around its warming eye. Another twelve hours after becoming a major, Josephine was a 140 mph (225 km/h) Category 4 storm. It was around this time, 18:00z, that Josephine began to slow down as Tropical Storm Kyle began to develop in the Bay of Campeche. The ocean heat content in the western Caribbean was extremely high, which allowed Josephine to intensify to its peak intensity of 175 mph (280 km/h) only 21 miles (34 kilometers) from Mahahual, Mexico as it crawled to a slow 6 mph. Category 5 Hurricane Josephine made landfall in Mahahual, moving at only 5 mph, at 17:20z September 9, delivering torrential rain, catastrophic storm surge, and winds gusting in excess of 195 mph (315 km/h).
Hurricane Josephine as a Category 2 hurricane moving into the Gulf of Mexico and intensifying.
Josephine slowed down and stalled for a short period of time, weakening to a Category 4 hurricane in the process. It then quickly moved to the northeast under the influence of an upper-level low in the Gulf of Mexico, which also caused Kyle to briefly stall in the Bay of Campeche once Josephine had moved farther northeast. Eventually, Hurricane Josephine weakened just below major hurricane status to a 110 mph (180 km/h) Category 2 hurricane as it passed through the Yucatan Channel. Developing a larger eye than it had previously, Josephine quickly regained Category 3 strength once it was in the Gulf of Mexico due to high sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat content. As it moved quickly to the north-northwest, Josephine reached its tertiary peak of 145 mph (235 km/h) at 01:30z September 11. As it moved towards the Gulf Coast, Josephine's outer bands and cloudtops began to wane, possibly indicating that the storm was beginning to weaken. At 17:43z, Josephine made its final landfall as a 125 mph (200 km/h) Category 3 hurricane near Long Beach, Mississippi. The storm then began to terminally weaken as it moved inland, bringing damaging storm surge, heavy rain, and gusty winds up to 155 mph (250 km/h). Josephine's eyewall eroded and eventually the storm weakened to a tropical storm for the first time in seven days while it was located over the Mississippi-Alabama border.
A frontal system eventually swept Josephine's weakening remnants up as it began to gain speed while moving northeast, leading to its eventual post-tropical designation on September 13. At this time, the National Hurricane Center handed advisories to the Weather Prediction Center due to the heavy rain threat the storm posed as it moved into the Ohio Valley and Northeastern United States. The system was easily identified as it merged with the frontal system until it reached New York, where the center of Josephine was no longer visible or traceable. Shortly after, the Weather Prediction Center ceased all advisories on Josephine.
Preparations[]
Caribbean[]
The National Hurricane Center's Five-Day Outlook for the Atlantic Ocean on August 29. Note Hurricane Isaias to the west of the Leeward Islands and Josephine's precursor with a medium chance. The area of interest that led to the formation of Hurricane Kyle is also visible in the Bay of Campeche.
Due to the quick organization of Tropical Storm Josephine and the recent effects of Hurricane Isaias, the Leeward Islands had short notice to prepare for gale-force winds, heavy rain, and flash flooding. Once the system had become a tropical depression, Tropical storm warnings were issued for Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent & The Grenadines, and Barbados, and tropical storm watches were issued for Dominica, Grenada, and Tobago. Flights into and out of the Leeward Islands were delayed until Josephine was at least 300 miles (483 kilometers) away from the islands. Shelters opened across St. Lucia and St. Vincent & The Grenadines as Josephine approached, while some voluntary evacuations began. In Trinidad and Tobago, heavy rains from Josephine's outer rainbands led to the issuing of flood alerts in preparation for landslides and flash flooding. The ABC Islands also suffered from heavy rainfall as Josephine passed to their north as a hurricane.
Jamaica & Central America[]
Jamaica, Nicaragua, and Honduras suffered very little from the passing of Josephine. Outer rainbands were weak enough so that torrential rain was not a prominent threat, but a Flood Watch was in effect for Jamaica in case of a rogue rainband that intensified unexpectedly.
Mexico & Belize[]
The National Hurricane Center's forecast cone for Hurricane Josephine on September 7, 2020.
As Josephine intensified into a major, a State of Emergency was declared for Quintana Roo as Josephine loomed over the western Caribbean. Evacuations quickly amped up, becoming involuntary due to the threat of lengthy impacts as Josephine was expected to slow down over Yucatan. Tropical storm watches stretched from Punta Gorda in Belize to Río Lagartos in northern Yucatan state, with tropical storm warnings in northern Belize and the coast of Quintana Roo. Hurricane warnings and watches were concentrated around Chetumal, Mahahual, and Herrero due to Josephine's forecast cone. The slow nature of Josephine after its landfall caused tropical storm and hurricane warnings to remain in effect for several days in the northern and northeastern Yucatan Peninsula.
Cuba[]
As Josephine exited the Yucatan Peninsula's coastline, the storms core grew in size, affecting Cuba with gale-force winds, heavy rain, and gusts exceeding hurricane-force. As a result, the Cuban government issued flood alerts for the extreme western tip of Cuba. The system began to pick up speed shortly after, and the structure of Josephine allowed for the rain to let up sooner than anticipated.
United States[]
Florida[]
Hurricane Josephine and Hurricane Kyle making history in the Gulf of Mexico, threatening the Gulf Coast simultaneously.
As Josephine grew larger in terms of outflow, pop up thunderstorms from the outer rainbands of the hurricane began to affect the western coast of Florida. Rain totals were not heavy or torrential, but some flash flood alerts were posted in the Tampa region due to the quick onset of rain. Josephine's growing size as it raced towards the Gulf Coast led to tropical storm watches and warnings being issued for the far western area of the Florida Panhandle. Simultaneously, a large rainband began to develop on the eastern coast of Florida, somewhat attached to the main core of Hurricane Josephine. Flash flood and flood warnings were issued in preparation for the slow moving rainband in cities such as Jacksonville and St. Augustine.
Gulf Coast[]
A state of emergency was issued in Alabama due to its close proximity to the forecast landfall location of Hurricane Josephine. Tropical storm warnings extended across the entire Gulf Coast of Alabama, and hurricane warnings were issued from Gulf Shores westward. These warnings continued inland as Josephine moved into the United States, and tropical storm warnings stretched from the coast to the northern part of the state as the storm straddled the Mississippi-Alabama border.
A state of emergency was also issued in Mississippi, and mandatory evacuations began several days in advance of Josephine's impacts. The National Hurricane Center noted that the exact location of Josephine's landfall could vary from the middle of Louisiana's coast to the eastern Alabama coast, thus the forecast coast was made larger to align with the uncertainty of Josephine's track. Storm surge warnings and watches were placed from Pascagoula to Pass Christian, Mississippi.
The National Hurricane Center's forecast cone for Hurricane Josephine on September 11, 2020.
In Louisiana, evacuations first began in New Orleans, due to the city's extreme vulnerability in terms of storm surge and heavy rain. Baton Rouge and areas surrounding New Orleans also began to prepare as Josephine's cone and the storm itself widened. The state's governor enacted a State of Emergency late on September 11 as Josephine continued to grow and move further west towards Louisiana, and mandatory evacuation orders followed shortly after. Shelters opened up in western Louisiana, away from any significant impacts from Josephine.
Impact[]
Caribbean[]
Total rainfall totals from Hurricane Josephine, Hurricane Kyle, and the frontal system that merged with Josephine over the United States.
As Tropical Storm Josephine moved through the Leeward Islands, it delivered some gusty winds and heavy rain due to its large influence and intensification as it passed between St. Lucia and St. Vincent. The highest amount of recorded rainfall that fell during the passage of Josephine was recorded on St. Vincent & The Grenadines, with 7.34 inches (186.436 millimeters) of rain. Power outages were somewhat widespread due to gusty winds. Trinidad & Tobago recorded a maximum of 5.12 inches (130.048 millimeters) from the outer bands of Hurricane Josephine, which led to landslides and flash flooding. The remainder of the ABC Islands saw amounts ranging from 3 to 4.99 inches (76.2 to 126.7 millimeters) of rain.
Jamaica & Central America[]
Total rainfall from Josephine peaked at 6.31 inches (160.274 millimeters) near Usibili, Honduras. There was some moderate flash flooding and damage from winds from the rainbands, but overall the region did not suffer greatly. In Jamaica, rainfall peaked at 2.03 inches (51.562 millimeters) on the extreme southwest coast of the island, and gusty winds impacted Jamaica off and on due to the expanding and intensifying Hurricane Josephine to the island's southwest.
Yucatan Peninsula[]
As Josephine approached and quickly intensified, rip currents and rough surf began to impact areas like Dos de Abril, Mexico, and Ambergris Caye, Belize. Rainbands began to move in late on September 7, and early into the morning of September 8. Forecasted rainfall was already substantially high at around 35 inches (889 millimeters), but as the system began to stall, rainfall totals dramatically increased. Storm surge and inland flooding inundated several geological and forested regions, despite the force of the storm directing the surge southwest into the southwest quadrant of the Category 5 hurricane.
Gallery[]
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