Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki:Chat/Logs/16 June 2017

[2017-06-16 15:31:12] -!- Playten Bot has joined Special:Chat
[2017-06-16 15:31:30] <Chapsteck4yurlipis> :P It seems so to me.
[2017-06-16 15:32:11] <Chapsteck4yurlipis> since GFS kept both Calvin and Beatriz as a TS even in analysis, and completely dropped all Atlantic storms
[2017-06-16 15:33:23] -!- Hurricane Layten has joined Special:Chat
[2017-06-16 15:33:36] <Hurricane_Layten> lol
[2017-06-16 15:33:49] <Hurricane_Layten> !seenon
[2017-06-16 15:33:49] <Playten_Bot> Hurricane Layten: I have enabled !seen
[2017-06-16 15:34:16] <Hurricane_Layten> !tellon
[2017-06-16 15:34:16] <Playten_Bot> Hurricane Layten: I have enabled !tell
[2017-06-16 15:36:22] <MasterGarfield> :p
[2017-06-16 15:37:16] <Chapsteck4yurlipis> Trying to create a small piece with a 9/8 time signature using pentuplets (or 5th notes)
[2017-06-16 15:37:31] <MasterGarfield> cool
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[2017-06-16 15:46:33] <MonseurRoussil1997> 07P.GRUBBIN
[2017-06-16 15:46:33] <MonseurRoussil1997> 
[2017-06-16 15:46:33] <MonseurRoussil1997> Hurricane Grubbin
[2017-06-16 15:46:33] <MonseurRoussil1997> ...Grubbin to make landfall soon...
[2017-06-16 15:46:33] <MonseurRoussil1997> Forecast Time	Intensity	Notes
[2017-06-16 15:46:33] <MonseurRoussil1997> June 16, 12z	110 knots	
[2017-06-16 15:46:33] <MonseurRoussil1997> June 17, 00z	90 knots	
[2017-06-16 15:46:33] <MonseurRoussil1997> June 17, 12z	85 knots	
[2017-06-16 15:46:33] <MonseurRoussil1997> June 18, 00z	80 knots	
[2017-06-16 15:46:33] <MonseurRoussil1997> June 19, 12z	75 knots	
[2017-06-16 15:46:33] <MonseurRoussil1997> June 20, 00z	70 knots	
[2017-06-16 15:46:33] <MonseurRoussil1997> June 21, 12z	65 knots
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[2017-06-16 16:01:09] <Hurricane_Layten> lol
[2017-06-16 16:18:37] <MonseurRoussil1997> 12z GFS has bret in 18h
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[2017-06-16 16:21:43] <MarioProtIV> I wonder what it will be at 2pm
[2017-06-16 16:21:56] <MarioProtIV> 30/50?
[2017-06-16 16:22:00] <MonseurRoussil1997> 92L is near TD status
[2017-06-16 16:22:16] <MarioProtIV> wind speed yes
[2017-06-16 16:22:33] <MarioProtIV> i don't see a well defined LLCC
[2017-06-16 16:23:44] <MarioProtIV> so don't jump ahead 
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[2017-06-16 16:27:21] <MonseurRoussil1997> 12z GFS wants to develop the wcarib disturbance
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[2017-06-16 16:30:29] <MonseurRoussil1997> HWRF has started on 92l (drama)
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[2017-06-16 16:31:56] <MonseurRoussil1997> GFS-P has both Bret and Cindy
[2017-06-16 16:32:06] <MonseurRoussil1997> http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2017061612/gfsp_mslp_uv850_atl_15.png
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[2017-06-16 16:33:02] <Hypercane> Inb4 they both don't form.
[2017-06-16 16:33:04] <Hypercane> jk
[2017-06-16 16:33:10] <MarioProtIV> Pld
[2017-06-16 16:33:14] <MarioProtIV> pls*
[2017-06-16 16:33:26] <Hypercane> Forgot that MarioBlah is here.
[2017-06-16 16:33:28] <Hypercane> :3
[2017-06-16 16:34:10] <MonseurRoussil1997> 12z GFS-P has Cindy as a hurricane on the gulf stream
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[2017-06-16 16:34:33] <MonseurRoussil1997> http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2017061612/gfsp_z500_mslp_atl_27.png
[2017-06-16 16:34:35] <Hurricane_Layten> oh my...
[2017-06-16 16:34:51] <MonseurRoussil1997> too organized to be EX
[2017-06-16 16:35:15] <Hurricane_Layten> hmm
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[2017-06-16 16:43:18] <Minecraft8369> http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=pres_wind&runtime=2017061612&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=351
[2017-06-16 16:43:24] <Minecraft8369> Bret + Cindy?
[2017-06-16 16:44:01] <Minecraft8369> * http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=pres_wind&runtime=2017061612&fh=78&xpos=0&ypos=188
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[2017-06-16 16:48:18] <Hypercane> https://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/hypotheticalhurricanes/images/f/f1/2015_NAtl_Seasonal_Summary_Map_%28Hype%29.png/revision/latest?cb=20170616164607
[2017-06-16 16:48:21] <Hypercane> Yay.
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[2017-06-16 16:48:31] <Hurricane_Layten> :p
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[2017-06-16 16:49:25] <Hypercane> Yeah, I know, my map looks weird because I vectorized it.
[2017-06-16 16:49:27] <Hypercane> :P
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[2017-06-16 16:58:33] <MasterGarfield> :P
[2017-06-16 17:00:29] <Hurricane_Layten> :3
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[2017-06-16 17:48:15] <Hurricane_Layten> !say hfyjm
[2017-06-16 17:48:15] <Playten_Bot> hfyjm
[2017-06-16 17:50:02] <StrawberryMaster> meanwhile, chat died 
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[2017-06-16 18:02:16] <Hurricane_Layten> Carib low is 10/60
[2017-06-16 18:02:28] <Hurricane_Layten> and the wave is 30/50
[2017-06-16 18:02:32] <MarioProtIV> ^
[2017-06-16 18:02:46] <Hurricane_Layten> beat you to it marioblah :3
[2017-06-16 18:02:50] <MarioProtIV> Honestly imo Bret will be from the wave and Cindy will be the Carib 
[2017-06-16 18:03:13] <StrawberryMaster> I also have some lovely news. :3
[2017-06-16 18:03:13] <StrawberryMaster>  
[2017-06-16 18:03:13] <StrawberryMaster> 
[2017-06-16 18:03:13] <StrawberryMaster> 
[2017-06-16 18:03:13] <StrawberryMaster>  apparently, Bittersweet's account is no longer globally blocked although it still is disabled 
[2017-06-16 18:03:26] <Hurricane_Layten> lol
[2017-06-16 18:03:48] <StrawberryMaster> however, he can still go ahead, contact staff and get that account disabled 
[2017-06-16 18:03:52] <StrawberryMaster> not disabled
[2017-06-16 18:03:53] <StrawberryMaster> I mean
[2017-06-16 18:04:00] <StrawberryMaster> he can get his account back 
[2017-06-16 18:04:02] <StrawberryMaster> basically
[2017-06-16 18:04:38] <StrawberryMaster> but meh his account is still blocked here so it's not a problem
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[2017-06-16 18:10:02] <MasterGarfield> hey
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[2017-06-16 18:13:15] <MonseurRoussil1997> test
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[2017-06-16 19:08:32] <Hurricane_Layten> !seenon
[2017-06-16 19:08:33] <Playten_Bot> Hurricane Layten: I have enabled !seen
[2017-06-16 19:08:39] <Hurricane_Layten> !tellon
[2017-06-16 19:08:39] <Playten_Bot> Hurricane Layten: I have enabled !tell
[2017-06-16 19:15:24] <MonseurRoussil1997> 170kt for Meranti
[2017-06-16 19:15:45] <MonseurRoussil1997> or 195mph
[2017-06-16 19:15:57] <MonseurRoussil1997> just 5kt short of the 200mph club
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[2017-06-16 19:55:29] <Hurricane_Layten> meranti was reanalysed?
[2017-06-16 19:55:42] <MonseurRoussil1997> yep
[2017-06-16 19:56:21] <Hurricane_Layten> source?
[2017-06-16 19:58:18] <Hurricane_Layten> @Rossil
[2017-06-16 19:59:06] <Hurricane_Layten> ROUSSIL
[2017-06-16 19:59:25] <MonseurRoussil1997> https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/web/guest/jtwc/best_tracks/western-pacific
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[2017-06-16 20:06:33] <Bobnekaro> Hey 
[2017-06-16 20:06:33] <Playten_Bot> Bobnekaro, Hurricane Layten wanted to tell you @ 2017-06-15 18:46:29 UTC: Watch HurricaneTracks latest video :3
[2017-06-16 20:07:14] <Hurricane_Layten> hui :3
[2017-06-16 20:07:28] <Bobnekaro> kden 
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[2017-06-16 20:14:26] <MonseurRoussil1997> imagine this in the atlantic
[2017-06-16 20:14:27] <MonseurRoussil1997> v
[2017-06-16 20:14:28] <MonseurRoussil1997> http://i.imgur.com/ylB2G5c.gif
[2017-06-16 20:15:47] <Bobnekaro> If that was in the Atlantic the Wunderblogs would crash and that storm would be all over the news
[2017-06-16 20:16:20] <MasterGarfield> :P
[2017-06-16 20:16:34] <MasterGarfield> Hi
[2017-06-16 20:16:41] <Bobnekaro> hey
[2017-06-16 20:16:44] <Bobnekaro> Who's ready for BRET?
[2017-06-16 20:16:51] <MasterGarfield> me.
[2017-06-16 20:16:57] <MonseurRoussil1997> everybody is ready
[2017-06-16 20:17:01] <Bobnekaro> lol
[2017-06-16 20:17:02] <MasterGarfield> I think the wave will be Bret
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[2017-06-16 20:17:03] <Bobnekaro> it's about time 
[2017-06-16 20:17:05] <MasterGarfield> it's organizing
[2017-06-16 20:17:08] <Bobnekaro> hey Hype 
[2017-06-16 20:17:10] <MasterGarfield> and it intensified.
[2017-06-16 20:17:10] <Bobnekaro> I'm home :3 
[2017-06-16 20:17:17] <MasterGarfield> Bob, it's 30 mph.
[2017-06-16 20:17:19] <Hypercane> Hi Bobbeh.
[2017-06-16 20:17:20] <Hypercane> :3
[2017-06-16 20:17:21] <Hypercane> :4
[2017-06-16 20:17:26] <Bobnekaro> I know @Garfield 
[2017-06-16 20:17:27] <Hypercane> Bobbeh DM.
[2017-06-16 20:17:28] <Hypercane> :3
[2017-06-16 20:17:29] <Bobnekaro> ok
[2017-06-16 20:17:29] <Hypercane> :4
[2017-06-16 20:17:31] <Bobnekaro> knew it lol
[2017-06-16 20:17:32] <Bobnekaro> :p
[2017-06-16 20:17:49] <MasterGarfield> +1
[2017-06-16 20:17:49] <MasterGarfield> :3
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[2017-06-16 20:28:37] <Bobnekaro> I think we'll get 93L by tomorrow 
[2017-06-16 20:28:52] <Bobnekaro> 92L and 93L: it's like the 96L and 97L battle all over again
[2017-06-16 20:29:50] <MasterGarfield> lol.
[2017-06-16 20:30:11] <MasterGarfield> I think that something will come out of this.
[2017-06-16 20:30:14] <Bobnekaro> http://hypotheticalhurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_blog%3AStrawberryMaster/The_96L_and_97L_Rant
[2017-06-16 20:30:20] <Bobnekaro> I think one of the two will develop
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[2017-06-16 20:32:42] <Bobnekaro> SM, will you probably be doing the 92L and 93L rant this weekend? (lenny)
[2017-06-16 20:33:51] <Bobnekaro> "On another hand, if you see another "twin invests situation", reading this blog might help. Or not."
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[2017-06-16 20:34:26] <Bobnekaro> I think last year we had TRIPLET invests at one point
[2017-06-16 20:34:53] <MasterGarfield> lol.
[2017-06-16 20:34:56] <MasterGarfield> :P
[2017-06-16 20:35:24] <Bobnekaro> yep http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo/atl/201609102326/two_atl_5d0.png
[2017-06-16 20:35:40] <MasterGarfield> lol
[2017-06-16 20:35:41] <Bobnekaro> 92L (left) was a bust, 93L (center) became Julia, and 94L (right) became Ian
[2017-06-16 20:35:45] <MasterGarfield> yep
[2017-06-16 20:36:17] <Bobnekaro> I like twin invests. It's cool, because you know at least one will probably form :p
[2017-06-16 20:36:20] <MasterGarfield> :P
[2017-06-16 20:36:22] <Bobnekaro> [small]inb4 neither forms 
[2017-06-16 20:36:29] <MasterGarfield> and these invests seem to be looking up
[2017-06-16 20:36:33] <MasterGarfield> Hey Bob
[2017-06-16 20:36:39] <MasterGarfield> I've noticed something about these invests
[2017-06-16 20:36:44] <Bobnekaro> what? 
[2017-06-16 20:36:46] <MonseurRoussil1997> +1
[2017-06-16 20:36:52] <Bobnekaro> +1 for downcasting? 
[2017-06-16 20:36:53] <Bobnekaro> lol
[2017-06-16 20:36:55] <MasterGarfield> This rate of invests isn't normal for June.
[2017-06-16 20:36:59] <MasterGarfield> More normal for August.
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[2017-06-16 20:37:07] <Bobnekaro> wb 
[2017-06-16 20:37:31] <MasterGarfield> This could be implying a very active year, especially if they both develop.
[2017-06-16 20:37:32] <Bobnekaro> Well, 90L and 91L were kinda random 
[2017-06-16 20:37:37] <Hypercane> Thanks, I'm here until 4:55 PM EDT.
[2017-06-16 20:37:38] <Bobnekaro> Last year we were at 94L by Danielle.
[2017-06-16 20:37:40] <Hypercane> :P 
[2017-06-16 20:37:41] <Bobnekaro> Okay 
[2017-06-16 20:37:41] <Bobnekaro> :p
[2017-06-16 20:37:46] <MasterGarfield> :P
[2017-06-16 20:38:03] <Bobnekaro> 30/50 and 10/60 
[2017-06-16 20:38:08] <Hypercane> DM. 
[2017-06-16 20:38:11] <Bobnekaro> Okay. 
[2017-06-16 20:38:12] <MasterGarfield> they both could very well develop
[2017-06-16 20:38:12] <Bobnekaro> :p 
[2017-06-16 20:38:13] <MasterGarfield> kden
[2017-06-16 20:38:15] <Hypercane> @Bobbeh
[2017-06-16 20:38:18] <MasterGarfield> killing chat?
[2017-06-16 20:38:18] <MasterGarfield> :3
[2017-06-16 20:38:34] <Bobnekaro> kden
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[2017-06-16 20:39:26] <Bobnekaro> wb SM
[2017-06-16 20:39:33] <Bobnekaro> So, SM, are you ready for another round of twin invests? :3 
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[2017-06-16 20:43:31] <Hurricane_Layten> !seenon
[2017-06-16 20:43:31] <Playten_Bot> Hurricane Layten: I have enabled !seen
[2017-06-16 20:43:39] <Hurricane_Layten> !tellon
[2017-06-16 20:43:40] <Playten_Bot> Hurricane Layten: I have enabled !tell
[2017-06-16 20:44:17] <MasterGarfield> "The Atlantic basin is unusually active for mid-June because of 2 disturbances that have a medium chance of formation during the next 5 days."
[2017-06-16 20:44:21] <MasterGarfield> - The NHC
[2017-06-16 20:45:48] <Bobnekaro> This doesn't look like a fail season 
[2017-06-16 20:45:57] <Bobnekaro> then again, it's early
[2017-06-16 20:46:57] <MasterGarfield> This isn't how a fail season starts, is it?
[2017-06-16 20:47:06] <Bobnekaro> Not usually :p 
[2017-06-16 20:47:19] <MasterGarfield> Well don't expect a fail. :P
[2017-06-16 20:47:23] <Bobnekaro> I really want that June MDR storm though
[2017-06-16 20:47:30] <MasterGarfield> It has a 50% chance.
[2017-06-16 20:47:34] <MasterGarfield> And it has intensified recently.
[2017-06-16 20:47:41] <MasterGarfield> and organized
[2017-06-16 20:48:16] <Bobnekaro> I want to see it have a convective burst overnight, then an ASCAT pass shows a well-defined circulation :p
[2017-06-16 20:48:30] <MasterGarfield> :P
[2017-06-16 20:48:32] <MasterGarfield> inb4 it does
[2017-06-16 20:49:17] <Bobnekaro> I like it when TCs strengthen overnight. 
[2017-06-16 20:49:18] <MasterGarfield> If both of these develop
[2017-06-16 20:49:23] <MasterGarfield> that could be a sign
[2017-06-16 20:49:31] <Bobnekaro> But that would likely put us at a cringe 3-0-0 
[2017-06-16 20:49:49] <Bobnekaro> I give less than a 5 percent chance of a hurricane from either system.
[2017-06-16 20:49:57] <MasterGarfield> yep
[2017-06-16 20:50:03] <MasterGarfield> but the EPAC is cringe.
[2017-06-16 20:50:05] <MasterGarfield> :P
[2017-06-16 20:50:18] <Bobnekaro> EPAC: 3-0-0
[2017-06-16 20:50:18] <Bobnekaro> ATL: 3-0-0
[2017-06-16 20:50:19] <MonseurRoussil1997> +1
[2017-06-16 20:50:24] <MonseurRoussil1997> @MG
[2017-06-16 20:50:28] <Bobnekaro> lol
[2017-06-16 20:50:29] <MasterGarfield> kden
[2017-06-16 20:50:53] <Bobnekaro> The EURO is suggesting a small EPAC storm could form from the same gyre 
[2017-06-16 20:51:17] <Bobnekaro> If it did it would likely be another Calvin
[2017-06-16 20:51:19] <MasterGarfield> that would put it at 4-0-0 
[2017-06-16 20:51:46] <MasterGarfield> :P
[2017-06-16 20:51:50] <Bobnekaro> cigazze • a few seconds ago
[2017-06-16 20:51:50] <Bobnekaro> The Ultra High Resolution ASCAT's 12:00 pass over 92L is showing regions with 30-35kt winds. Circulation seems pretty disorganized here, but it could just be that the UHR ASCAT is oversensitive to wind direction - the satellite imagery is probably a better indicator.
[2017-06-16 20:51:57] <Bobnekaro> 35 kt winds? kden 
[2017-06-16 20:52:13] <MasterGarfield> wow.
[2017-06-16 20:52:19] <Bobnekaro> Might be rain contaminated 
[2017-06-16 20:52:22] <MasterGarfield> inb4 red crayon
[2017-06-16 20:52:23] <MasterGarfield> +1
[2017-06-16 20:52:26] <MonseurRoussil1997> UHR ASCAT?
[2017-06-16 20:52:34] <Bobnekaro> Someone posted that on Wunderground lol
[2017-06-16 20:52:50] <MasterGarfield> :P
[2017-06-16 20:53:09] <MasterGarfield> inb4 Andre says: "It won't form"
[2017-06-16 20:53:47] <Bobnekaro> He'll probably say "i lose" when NHC doesn't raise its chances at the 8PM outlook
[2017-06-16 20:53:56] <Bobnekaro> That's how he acts
[2017-06-16 20:54:08] <Bobnekaro> He PROMISES something will develop then when it doesn't he says "i lose"
[2017-06-16 20:54:09] <MasterGarfield> I think they might
[2017-06-16 20:54:18] <MasterGarfield> raise the chances
[2017-06-16 20:54:18] <Bobnekaro> Maybe, we'll see. 
[2017-06-16 20:54:27] <Bobnekaro> ECMWF has a tiny closed low in 48 hours with 92L
[2017-06-16 20:54:30] <MasterGarfield> I honestly feel a little optimistic about this now
[2017-06-16 20:55:03] <Bobnekaro> The ECMWF doesn't really develop a full-fledged TC but it might just be that the circulation is too small to show up well
[2017-06-16 20:55:39] <MasterGarfield> This situation is kinda weird.
[2017-06-16 20:55:54] <MasterGarfield> We've been discussing this season for 7 months, and here it is unfolding in front of us.
[2017-06-16 20:56:02] <Bobnekaro> It's here :D 
[2017-06-16 20:56:02] <MonseurRoussil1997> i made colin
[2017-06-16 20:56:04] <MonseurRoussil1997> http://prntscr.com/fko5xf
[2017-06-16 20:56:16] <Bobnekaro> lol
[2017-06-16 20:56:18] <MasterGarfield> lol
[2017-06-16 20:56:25] <Bobnekaro> I remember Layten said he expected Colin to be 90 mph at landfall (lenny)
[2017-06-16 20:56:31] <Bobnekaro> I expected 65 mph.
[2017-06-16 20:57:06] <MasterGarfield> lol
[2017-06-16 20:57:07] <StrawberryMaster> I expected 50 mph. :3 
[2017-06-16 20:57:32] <StrawberryMaster> [small]well actually I expected nothing
[2017-06-16 20:58:02] <MasterGarfield> :P
[2017-06-16 20:58:14] <Bobnekaro> SM which invest do you expect to form? :3 
[2017-06-16 20:58:16] <Bobnekaro> inb4 none
[2017-06-16 20:58:39] <StrawberryMaster> no idea
[2017-06-16 20:59:03] <StrawberryMaster> never even knew 92L and 93L existed
[2017-06-16 20:59:34] <Bobnekaro> 93L doesn't exist yet 
[2017-06-16 20:59:36] <Bobnekaro> but it should tomorrow 
[2017-06-16 20:59:36] <StrawberryMaster> either I'm outdated or El Ninkaro is wishcasting invests again
[2017-06-16 20:59:37] <MasterGarfield> :p
[2017-06-16 20:59:39] <MasterGarfield> lol
[2017-06-16 21:00:09] <StrawberryMaster> clearly mr. ninkaro needs to see this blog post here
[2017-06-16 21:00:09] <StrawberryMaster>  http://hypotheticalhurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_blog%3AStrawberryMaster/The_96L_and_97L_Rant
[2017-06-16 21:00:16] <Bobnekaro> lol this is hilarious 
[2017-06-16 21:00:16] <Bobnekaro> Weathercowboy • 15 hours ago
[2017-06-16 21:00:16] <Bobnekaro> Poll how many times will Andre say I lose this weekend?
[2017-06-16 21:00:16] <Bobnekaro> A. 5 times
[2017-06-16 21:00:16] <Bobnekaro> B.0 times
[2017-06-16 21:00:16] <Bobnekaro> C. 10 times
[2017-06-16 21:00:16] <Bobnekaro> D. After every poll?
[2017-06-16 21:00:16] <Bobnekaro> 1  
[2017-06-16 21:00:16] <Bobnekaro> •Reply•Share ›
[2017-06-16 21:01:01] <MasterGarfield> :P
[2017-06-16 21:01:03] <MasterGarfield> lol
[2017-06-16 21:01:10] <MasterGarfield> [small] you should vote lol
[2017-06-16 21:01:38] <MasterGarfield> https://vignette3.wikia.nocookie.net/hypotheticalhurricanes/images/3/3d/Kesg.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20170616210119
[2017-06-16 21:01:38] <MasterGarfield> 
[2017-06-16 21:01:38] <MasterGarfield> [small] Accurate image of TS Dora 2017
[2017-06-16 21:01:41] <Bobnekaro> That was a long time ago 
[2017-06-16 21:02:26] <StrawberryMaster> very accurate
[2017-06-16 21:02:39] <MasterGarfield> :P
[2017-06-16 21:02:46] <StrawberryMaster> [sub]never knew TS Dora would be as large as Tip 
[2017-06-16 21:02:55] <Bobnekaro> Andre Brooks be like:
[2017-06-16 21:03:05] <Bobnekaro> "The shear will decrease mate, I promise"
[2017-06-16 21:03:08] <Bobnekaro> When it doesn't: "i lose"
[2017-06-16 21:03:15] <MasterGarfield> lol
[2017-06-16 21:03:41] <Bobnekaro> He's got the most severe case of TD I've ever seen by far.
[2017-06-16 21:03:48] <MasterGarfield> poor guy.
[2017-06-16 21:03:51] <Bobnekaro> Yeah. 
[2017-06-16 21:04:00] <MasterGarfield> but
[2017-06-16 21:04:06] <MasterGarfield> these invests have me thinking
[2017-06-16 21:04:18] <Bobnekaro> I like how we automatically assume we have 93L when we really don't :p 
[2017-06-16 21:04:22] <MasterGarfield> if we're seeing this much activity in June we cannot dismiss an extremely active year
[2017-06-16 21:04:29] <Bobnekaro> We haven't even had a named storm yet lol
[2017-06-16 21:04:35] <MasterGarfield> yes we have, Arlene
[2017-06-16 21:04:36] <MasterGarfield> :P
[2017-06-16 21:04:40] <Bobnekaro> not in June, I mean 
[2017-06-16 21:04:40] <Bobnekaro> :p
[2017-06-16 21:04:49] <MasterGarfield> but still, you know what I mean?
[2017-06-16 21:04:50] <MasterGarfield> :P
[2017-06-16 21:04:53] <MasterGarfield> Even the NHC noted it
[2017-06-16 21:05:00] <Bobnekaro> Yeah. 
[2017-06-16 21:05:10] <Bobnekaro> Two simultaneous invests in June isn't common, but two invests in June is. 
[2017-06-16 21:05:22] <MasterGarfield> two orange invests at the same time in June?
[2017-06-16 21:05:26] <MasterGarfield> possible two red invests?
[2017-06-16 21:05:27] <Bobnekaro> Last year we had 3 invests form in June 
[2017-06-16 21:05:42] <Bobnekaro> It's the MJO, that's why :p
[2017-06-16 21:05:46] <MasterGarfield> two formed and one failed?
[2017-06-16 21:05:47] <MasterGarfield> :P
[2017-06-16 21:06:10] <Hurricane_Layten> :p
[2017-06-16 21:06:45] <Bobnekaro> yes
[2017-06-16 21:06:49] <Bobnekaro> 95L pls.
[2017-06-16 21:07:00] <Hurricane_Layten> :p
[2017-06-16 21:07:04] <Bobnekaro> It occurred a few days after Danielle in the BoC and was too far south to do anything 
[2017-06-16 21:07:20] <Bobnekaro> I remember thinking it had a chance to be Earl lol
[2017-06-16 21:07:22] <MasterGarfield> lol
[2017-06-16 21:07:38] <MasterGarfield> did it ever get an orange crayoN?
[2017-06-16 21:07:41] <Bobnekaro> it had zero model suppor t
[2017-06-16 21:07:43] <Bobnekaro> *support 
[2017-06-16 21:07:44] <Bobnekaro> peaked at 20/20
[2017-06-16 21:07:47] <MasterGarfield> lol.
[2017-06-16 21:07:48] <MasterGarfield> :P
[2017-06-16 21:07:49] <Hurricane_Layten> i remember it, yes. models had a brief depression
[2017-06-16 21:07:52] <StrawberryMaster> [sub]..suppor t?
[2017-06-16 21:07:53] <StrawberryMaster> :3
[2017-06-16 21:07:55] <Bobnekaro> kden
[2017-06-16 21:08:00] <Hurricane_Layten> :4
[2017-06-16 21:08:06] <MasterGarfield> :3
[2017-06-16 21:08:07] <MasterGarfield> :P
[2017-06-16 21:08:08] <StrawberryMaster> supporté, el ninkaro, supporté
[2017-06-16 21:08:11] <MasterGarfield> lol
[2017-06-16 21:08:19] <Hurricane_Layten> lmao
[2017-06-16 21:08:32] <Bobnekaro> kden http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo/atl/201606231715/two_atl_5d0.png
[2017-06-16 21:08:39] <MasterGarfield> k
[2017-06-16 21:08:53] <Bobnekaro> ironically Earl was active in the same location 
[2017-06-16 21:09:02] <MasterGarfield> yep
[2017-06-16 21:09:14] <Hurricane_Layten> yup :p
[2017-06-16 21:09:14] <StrawberryMaster> ohmygah, it's a BoC failiciæ :3
[2017-06-16 21:09:23] <Hurricane_Layten> :4
[2017-06-16 21:09:29] <MasterGarfield> vastly different situation now
[2017-06-16 21:09:41] <Bobnekaro> I don't think future 93L will be a BoC failicia anymore. 
[2017-06-16 21:09:49] <MasterGarfield> what do you think?
[2017-06-16 21:09:50] <Bobnekaro> It'll probably be too far north to get the classic title.
[2017-06-16 21:09:52] <Hurricane_Layten> lol
[2017-06-16 21:10:07] <Bobnekaro> Probably will make landfall near Mexico-Texas border imo but we'll see, GFS is vastly different 
[2017-06-16 21:10:18] <Bobnekaro> GFS has a weaker version of Colin lol
[2017-06-16 21:10:19] <MasterGarfield> GFS hardly has a TC
[2017-06-16 21:10:21] <Hurricane_Layten> yup
[2017-06-16 21:10:32] <Bobnekaro> GFS has a Colin-like thing 
[2017-06-16 21:10:47] <MasterGarfield> which would be Cindy, the MDR storm is named first
[2017-06-16 21:10:48] <Hurricane_Layten> yes
[2017-06-16 21:11:05] <Hurricane_Layten> lol
[2017-06-16 21:11:46] <MasterGarfield> funny how it also uses the C name :P
[2017-06-16 21:11:58] <Bobnekaro> Cindy might form in a similar location to Cindy 2005 
[2017-06-16 21:11:59] <Bobnekaro> :p
[2017-06-16 21:12:05] <MasterGarfield> :P
[2017-06-16 21:12:20] <Bobnekaro> ...looks like Bret will be used again in 2023
[2017-06-16 21:12:20] <Bobnekaro> :3 
[2017-06-16 21:12:39] <Hurricane_Layten> inb4 Hurricane Cindy :3
[2017-06-16 21:12:49] <MasterGarfield> lol.
[2017-06-16 21:12:50] <MasterGarfield> :P
[2017-06-16 21:12:56] <Bobnekaro> Intensity probabilities, if development does occur for 92L: 
[2017-06-16 21:12:56] <Bobnekaro> Tropical Depression: 21%
[2017-06-16 21:12:56] <Bobnekaro> Tropical Storm: 76%
[2017-06-16 21:12:56] <Bobnekaro> Hurricane: 3%  
[2017-06-16 21:13:13] <Hurricane_Layten> k
[2017-06-16 21:13:21] <Bobnekaro> I've come to just not expect RI in June. 
[2017-06-16 21:13:22] <Bobnekaro> :p 
[2017-06-16 21:13:24] <MasterGarfield> :p
[2017-06-16 21:13:38] <MasterGarfield> Bob
[2017-06-16 21:13:42] <MasterGarfield> what if both storms form?
[2017-06-16 21:13:49] <StrawberryMaster> bob is a wishcaster
[2017-06-16 21:14:01] <Hurricane_Layten> lol
[2017-06-16 21:14:24] <Bobnekaro> That would be awesome but would probably give us a 3-0-0 start and I honestly don't know if I want that.
[2017-06-16 21:14:42] <Bobnekaro> That means if we get a storm in July we'll end July at 4-0-0 and we'd have a lot of catching up to do with hurricanes 
[2017-06-16 21:15:01] <MasterGarfield> but
[2017-06-16 21:15:01] <Bobnekaro> although you can get July hurricanes IF you are lucky.
[2017-06-16 21:15:20] <MasterGarfield> you continue to dismiss the very possible chance of a July hurricane like it doesn't exist.
[2017-06-16 21:15:23] <MasterGarfield> so +1
[2017-06-16 21:15:23] <MasterGarfield> :3
[2017-06-16 21:15:42] <Hurricane_Layten> theres a july hurricane every 3 years on average, and the last one was in 2014, so we ARE due one :p
[2017-06-16 21:15:46] <MasterGarfield> :P
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[2017-06-16 21:15:55] <Bobnekaro> Hey MH
[2017-06-16 21:15:58] <MasterGarfield> hi MH
[2017-06-16 21:15:59] <Bobnekaro> 92L :D
[2017-06-16 21:16:06] <Money_Hurricane> Hey I'm back a lil early
[2017-06-16 21:16:09] <MasterGarfield> hi
[2017-06-16 21:16:12] <Money_Hurricane> Hey
[2017-06-16 21:16:19] <MasterGarfield> have you seen the atlantic lately?
[2017-06-16 21:16:19] <Bobnekaro> So you're back? We can continue the story tonight? 
[2017-06-16 21:16:24] <MasterGarfield> lol of course
[2017-06-16 21:16:26] <MasterGarfield> :P
[2017-06-16 21:16:27] <Bobnekaro> :p
[2017-06-16 21:16:28] <Hurricane_Layten> theres also a june hurricane every 5 years on average, and the last one of those was in 2010, so we are overdue fpr one of those too :3
[2017-06-16 21:16:28] <Money_Hurricane> Wow. That CV wave is up to 50%
[2017-06-16 21:16:31] <Bobnekaro> Yep :D 
[2017-06-16 21:16:35] <Bobnekaro> 30/50 and 10/60
[2017-06-16 21:16:35] <MasterGarfield> two 50% invests.
[2017-06-16 21:16:39] <MasterGarfield> in JUNE
[2017-06-16 21:16:40] <Hurricane_Layten> Oui :3
[2017-06-16 21:16:56] <Money_Hurricane> Betting on a red crayon by tomorrow 
[2017-06-16 21:17:02] <Money_Hurricane> For the Yucatán wave
[2017-06-16 21:17:02] <MasterGarfield> same honestly.
[2017-06-16 21:17:03] <MasterGarfield> :P
[2017-06-16 21:17:04] <Bobnekaro> :p
[2017-06-16 21:17:05] <Hurricane_Layten> :p
[2017-06-16 21:17:15] <Hurricane_Layten> owww
[2017-06-16 21:17:21] <Money_Hurricane> Yes Bob, I will continue the story today
[2017-06-16 21:17:23] <Bobnekaro> Yay
[2017-06-16 21:17:24] <Money_Hurricane> lol
[2017-06-16 21:17:25] <Bobnekaro> Not yet though. :p
[2017-06-16 21:17:26] <MasterGarfield> lol
[2017-06-16 21:17:28] <MasterGarfield> :P
[2017-06-16 21:17:31] <Bobnekaro> Later tonight would be the best time 
[2017-06-16 21:17:36] <Hurricane_Layten> i kicked my slipper off, anfd the bugger hit me in the face :p
[2017-06-16 21:17:40] <MasterGarfield> :P
[2017-06-16 21:17:53] <Money_Hurricane> Wut
[2017-06-16 21:17:58] <Bobnekaro> I'm pretty much free all of next week yay
[2017-06-16 21:18:02] <MasterGarfield> yay
[2017-06-16 21:18:03] <Hurricane_Layten> slipper pls :p
[2017-06-16 21:18:08] <Bobnekaro> I'll get the time I need to track Bret. :3 
[2017-06-16 21:18:10] <Money_Hurricane> I got 1 full day oeft
[2017-06-16 21:18:12] <MasterGarfield> [s] now he can downcast Bret and Cindy unbothered
[2017-06-16 21:18:13] <Money_Hurricane> Left
[2017-06-16 21:18:20] <Bobnekaro> kden
[2017-06-16 21:18:24] <MasterGarfield> :P
[2017-06-16 21:18:25] <MasterGarfield> jk
[2017-06-16 21:18:25] <Money_Hurricane> I saw this morning's GFS run
[2017-06-16 21:18:29] <Money_Hurricane> It was weird
[2017-06-16 21:18:33] <MasterGarfield> yep
[2017-06-16 21:18:35] <Hurricane_Layten> ?
[2017-06-16 21:18:37] <Bobnekaro> Something is cool about tracking TCs on vacation. I begin to associate being there with a storm lol
[2017-06-16 21:18:44] <Money_Hurricane> That CV wave was near-hurricane strength on that run
[2017-06-16 21:18:45] <MasterGarfield> they now have Bret and Cindy co-existing
[2017-06-16 21:18:48] <MasterGarfield> yep
[2017-06-16 21:18:52] <Bobnekaro> Like I associate New Jersey with Danielle LOL
[2017-06-16 21:18:59] <MasterGarfield> lol
[2017-06-16 21:19:01] <Hurricane_Layten> lol
[2017-06-16 21:19:07] <Money_Hurricane> How's hank been feeling about dis?
[2017-06-16 21:19:08] <MasterGarfield> Danielle was NOWHERE near New Jersey
[2017-06-16 21:19:08] <MasterGarfield> :P
[2017-06-16 21:19:10] <Money_Hurricane> Lol
[2017-06-16 21:19:13] <Bobnekaro> I haven't seen Hank recently 
[2017-06-16 21:19:17] <Bobnekaro> I know lol @Garfield
[2017-06-16 21:19:21] <Bobnekaro> That's where I saw it named though
[2017-06-16 21:19:26] <Hurricane_Layten> he left HHWD
[2017-06-16 21:19:26] <MasterGarfield> oh.
[2017-06-16 21:19:37] <Money_Hurricane> I know
[2017-06-16 21:19:45] <StrawberryMaster> conclusion
[2017-06-16 21:19:45] <StrawberryMaster>  [s]hank is dead
[2017-06-16 21:19:47] <Money_Hurricane> that happened before my brief haitius 
[2017-06-16 21:19:54] <Hurricane_Layten> ?
[2017-06-16 21:19:55] <MasterGarfield> > haitius
[2017-06-16 21:20:05] <Bobnekaro> brb for a minute
[2017-06-16 21:20:06] <MasterGarfield> Hiatus? 
[2017-06-16 21:20:06] <MasterGarfield> :3
[2017-06-16 21:20:22] <Hurricane_Layten> a huitus? :3
[2017-06-16 21:20:29] <Money_Hurricane> Sorry I can spell lately
[2017-06-16 21:20:31] <Money_Hurricane> or speak
[2017-06-16 21:20:32] <MasterGarfield> lol
[2017-06-16 21:20:36] <MasterGarfield> > I can spell
[2017-06-16 21:20:44] <Money_Hurricane> *kills self*
[2017-06-16 21:20:46] <Hurricane_Layten> lol
[2017-06-16 21:20:57] <StrawberryMaster> [small]we have just learned that MH can spell
[2017-06-16 21:20:57] <StrawberryMaster>  how lovely
[2017-06-16 21:21:14] <Hurricane_Layten> lmao
[2017-06-16 21:21:14] <Money_Hurricane> LET'S GO BRET
[2017-06-16 21:21:43] <MasterGarfield> ^
[2017-06-16 21:21:43] <MasterGarfield> :3
[2017-06-16 21:21:45] <MasterGarfield> :P
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[2017-06-16 21:26:49] <MasterGarfield> dead
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[2017-06-16 21:35:29] <Money_Hurricane> And my mom just told me to put my tablet back and that I won't get it until Monday. Yep, she treats me like trash.
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[2017-06-16 22:01:52] <MarioProtIV> 92L looks to be close to TD status
[2017-06-16 22:02:50] <Hurricane_Layten> yup :3
[2017-06-16 22:03:44] <MarioProtIV> https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f868724906e26186065e7df700c9f7f687a09052b4533c25f8eb1ec8ce6d0f08.jpg
[2017-06-16 22:03:52] <MarioProtIV> circ forming
[2017-06-16 22:04:16] <MarioProtIV> might see this bumped suddenly to 60/80 at 8
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[2017-06-16 22:07:27] <Hurricane_Layten> yup, theres certainly a MLC there, possibly a LLC
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[2017-06-16 22:17:44] <Hurricane_Layten> GFS still rapidly developing 92L into a TS by 42 hours
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[2017-06-16 22:58:31] <Hurricane_Layten> ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR
[2017-06-16 22:58:31] <Hurricane_Layten> SOUTHEASTERN MADISON...NORTHWESTERN COLFAX...NORTHEASTERN PLATTE AND
[2017-06-16 22:58:31] <Hurricane_Layten> SOUTHERN STANTON COUNTIES...
[2017-06-16 22:58:31] <Hurricane_Layten> 
[2017-06-16 22:58:31] <Hurricane_Layten> At 555 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Madison, or 12
[2017-06-16 22:58:31] <Hurricane_Layten> miles south of Norfolk, moving southeast at 30 mph.
[2017-06-16 22:58:31] <Hurricane_Layten> 
[2017-06-16 22:58:31] <Hurricane_Layten> HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail.
[2017-06-16 22:58:31] <Hurricane_Layten> 
[2017-06-16 22:58:31] <Hurricane_Layten> SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.
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[2017-06-16 23:09:48] <Chapsteck4yurlipis> I don't blame GFS one bit
[2017-06-16 23:09:51] <Chapsteck4yurlipis> seriously
[2017-06-16 23:09:56] <Hurricane_Layten> hi
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[2017-06-16 23:10:17] <Chapsteck4yurlipis> most models quickly develop 92L too, with almost all of them having it as Bret at some point
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[2017-06-16 23:10:22] <Chapsteck4yurlipis> hi Plentrone
[2017-06-16 23:10:24] <Chapsteck4yurlipis> :3
[2017-06-16 23:11:48] <Chapsteck4yurlipis> i see a 90
[2017-06-16 23:12:06] <Chapsteck4yurlipis> 90% chance for a Bret and 60% for a Cindy
[2017-06-16 23:12:24] <Chapsteck4yurlipis> Altantic's finally waking up
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[2017-06-16 23:24:14] <Hurricane_Layten> :p
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[2017-06-16 23:26:54] <MasterGarfield> :P
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[2017-06-16 23:35:32] <Hurricane_Layten> tornadic supercells could move through Omaha in the next few hours
[2017-06-16 23:35:35] <Hurricane_Layten> :/
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[2017-06-16 23:37:03] <MarioProtIV> 40/60 for 92L now
[2017-06-16 23:37:27] <Hurricane_Layten> holy f***
[2017-06-16 23:37:30] <MarioProtIV> honestly 92L will probably become Bret before "93L" does
[2017-06-16 23:37:35] <Hurricane_Layten> yup
[2017-06-16 23:37:45] <Hurricane_Layten> the gyre is now 20/60 as well
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[2017-06-16 23:39:24] <MasterGarfield> wow
[2017-06-16 23:39:33] <MasterGarfield> meanwhile NHC refuses to red crayon
[2017-06-16 23:39:34] <MasterGarfield> jk
[2017-06-16 23:39:35] <MasterGarfield> :P
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[2017-06-16 23:40:32] <MarioProtIV> I think I know why it's not actually > 50/70 rn 
[2017-06-16 23:40:42] <MarioProtIV> it's because convection is at dmin
[2017-06-16 23:41:00] <MarioProtIV> #RaceToBret 
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[2017-06-16 23:41:01] <MarioProtIV> :P
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[2017-06-16 23:46:37] <MasterGarfield> :P
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[2017-06-16 23:48:12] <Playten_Bot> Hurricane Layten: Now exiting chat...
[2017-06-16 23:48:13] <Hurricane_Layten> !quit