| Severe tropical storm (SWIO scale) | |
|---|---|
| Tropical storm (SSHWS) | |
 Severe Tropical Storm Dingani intensifying while nearing landfall over Mozambique | |
| Formed | 15 January 2023 |
| Dissipated | 19 January 2023 |
| (Remnant low after 18 January 2023) | |
| Highest winds | 10-minute sustained: 95 km/h (60 mph) 1-minute sustained: 110 km/h (70 mph) |
| Lowest pressure | 980 hPa (mbar); 28.94 inHg |
| Fatalities | 61 total |
| Damage | $170 million |
| Areas affected | Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe |
| Part of the 2022-23 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season | |
Severe Tropical Storm Dingani was a moderately strong tropical cyclone that struck Mozambique near peak intensity in January 2023. The 6th tropical depression and 5th named storm of the 2022-23 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season, Dingani began as a disturbance located over inland Mozambique. Monitored as a zone of disturbed weather by Météo-France La Réunion (MFR), it began to track into open waters and encountered favorable conditions, enabling it to undergo tropical cyclogenesis. On 15 January, it had organized sufficiently enough to be classified as a tropical depression. Shortly thereafter, it intensified into a moderate tropical storm, receiving the name Dingani. It recurved southward, and later southwestwards, towards Mozambique, remaining in close proximity to the coast. Further strengthening was initially inhibited by wind shear, meaning it remained in a roughly steady state for a day or so. However, after conditions improved, it quickly intensified and ultimately peaked as a severe tropical storm. On 17 January, Dingani made landfall over central Mozambique and quickly deteriorated afterwards, weakening to a remnant low on the 18th.
The storm's impacts were widespread, with high rainfall being observed over a wide swath of areas. Preparations for the storm's arrival began shortly after it originally became a tropical storm, though flooding already caused by its precursor, along with uncertainty over its specific landfall location, complicated proceedings. Zambezia Province was among the most impacted areas, as Dingani paralleled its coast for several days. The storm's peak winds were confined to a compact region around the center, though many coastal areas still faced very strong winds due to how closely it tracked near land. Although the storm's rain bands also reached into parts of western Madagascar, the vast majority of rainfall was light, and no damage or deaths were reported there. Overall impacts across Mozambique and southern Malawi led to 61 deaths and $170 million (2023 USD) in damage, the majority resulting from storm surge, rainfall, and associated flooding.
Meteorological history[]
Map plotting the storm's track and intensity, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale
Tropical storm (39–54 mph, 63–87 km/h)
Category 1 (74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h)
Category 2 (96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h)
Category 3 (111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h)
Category 4 (130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h)
Category 5 (≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h)
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Extratropical cyclone / remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depressionA disorganized area of convection was located inland over Mozambique, producing widespread rains as it traversed eastward towards the coast. Regarded as Zone of Disturbed Weather 06, Météo-France La Réunion (MFR), it moved offshore and entered an area of warm waters and high moisture. This fueled further organization, with it soon beginning to produce deep, centralized convection. It began to execute a counter-clockwise loop, ultimately leading it to turn southward. As the disturbance further began to resemble a tropical cyclone, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert to recognize a high chance of it becoming attaining such status in the near future. At 06:00 UTC on 15 January, the JTWC designated it as a tropical depression; shortly afterwards, MFR follow suit. At 12:00 UTC, satellite wind data confirmed that the storm was producing gales, leading to it being further upgraded to a moderate tropical storm; as a result, this meant it would be assigned the name Dingani.
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Dingani's precursor, situated inland over Mozambique
Though initially forecast to remain in an intensification phase, Dingani's satellite presentation soon began to degrade because of the effects of increasing wind shear, displacing much of its convection. Although it was still a moderate tropical storm, it was minimally so; it showed signs of gradual weakening but still remained at its status. Eventually, by 18:00 UTC on 16 January, Dingani had started to recuperate due to abating shear and an area of even warmer ocean temperatures than before. Taking advantage of these conditions, it quickly strengthened again and produced strong bursts of convection that began to wrap around the center. Additionally, it was briefly reported to have developed an eye, and at this time it reached its peak intensity consisting of of 10-minute sustained winds clocking at 95 km/h (60 mph) and a minimum barometric pressure of 980 hPa (28.94 inHg). However, this peak was short-lived due to the fact that the northern part of its center began to move onshore; because of this, its intensification phase abruptly leveled off. Nearing land, Dingani's convection warmed, and its pressure rose somewhat, before it ultimately made landfall north of Quelimane at approximately 14:00 UTC on 17 January. Afterwards, Dingani quickly fell to tropical depression strength in just under 12 hours after landfall, lingering over Mozambique at such intensity for a short period of time. Ultimately, at about 12:00 UTC on the 18th, the JTWC and MFR issued their final bulletins on the system, as it had become a remnant low-pressure area. Rain and thunderstorms associated with Dingani persisted for another day or so before finally dissipating sometime late on 19 January.
Preparations and impact[]
Shortly after Dingani originally became a tropical storm, officials across Mozambique took notice of the storm's forecast track and began to prepare accordingly. However, its exact trajectory remained under high uncertainty because of how close it was to land; if it took a slightly farther-north track, it would have made landfall up to 18 hours sooner, meaning it would have had less time to intensify and would have also weakened sooner. Dingani instead maintained a west-southwestward motion that caused it to parallel eastern Zambezia Province and southern Nampula Province, continuing to impact those areas with strong winds and rain while simultaneously continuing to intensify. Although the storm ultimately would not strike those areas, the uncertainties with the forecast triggered more widespread emergency preparations than would have been typically seen with a storm of this caliber.
Mozambique was already impacted by moderate flooding from Dingani's precursor disturbance, which alone had dropped up to 100 mm (4 in) in certain locations while still inland. Even after it had moved offshore and developed into a tropical storm, it remained close enough to land that further rainfall affected the area; while rain rates were not as high, it led to more standing water in places impacted. After Dingani had begun to parallel the southern part of Zambezia Province, tropical storm-force winds began to lash the coast, along with storm surge that was recorded at a maximum depth of 1 m (3 ft). Its outer bands also brought further heavy rainfall to areas already flooded by its precursor, worsening recovery efforts there. Near Quelimane, where Dingani made landfall, rain totals up to 159 mm (6.26 in) were recorded. In addition, a gust up to 158 km/h (98 mph) was experienced, though most areas generally did not see gusts exceeding 130 km/h (80 mph). Regardless, the storm's winds were powerful enough to down numerous trees and cut power to moderately large swaths of the area. After moving inland, the center of Dingani's remnants tracked south of Malawi and dissipated just east of Zimbabwe; although it may not have moved into either location, its winds and heavy rains still reached into both countries, causing limited damage there. Overall, Dingani caused an estimated $170 million in damages, with 61 total fatalities having been reported.